Yet another week is in the books and my record continues to float along. As week eleven wrapped up predictions finished 2-2, with the Broncos and Bengals covering, while the Rams and Chargers suffered against the spread losses. Entering the final five weeks of the season I have some serious cleaning up to do with a 18-22-1 record through eleven weeks. All I can say is, 2015 is not shaping up to be my year. Yet, the predictions must go on! But before I go throwing darts at who I suggest you bet money on this weekend, here’s a little recap of some action you might have missed in week eleven.
- Jacksonville took down Tennessee on Thursday night and improved to 4-6. They officially sit only a game back of both Indianapolis and Houston, and still have a game left against both these divisional opponents. Could the Jaguars actually make the playoffs this season?
- Baltimore defeated St. Louis but ended up the actual losers on Sunday. Running back Justin Forsett broke his forearm early in the game, and Joe Flacco suffered a torn ACL late in the game. Going forward the Ravens offense is going to be complied of misfits and nobodies. If only Justin Tucker could do everything.
- Brock Osweiler lead the Broncos to victory in his first career game. Denver actually ran the ball better with him under centre, and have already announced he will start again this weekend against the Patriots. Which is easily one of the most anticipated games all week.
- Carolina continued their unbeaten streak to 10-0. Cam Newton chucked 5 touchdown passes and it is officially time we started discussing how this team is a perennial Super Bowl contender from the NFC. Only the Cowboys, Saints, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers stand between them and an undefeated season. Let that sink in for a minute…. the Falcons are the only team above .500 on that list – and they have lost four of their last five games.
- Indianapolis is officially 3-0 with Matt Hassleback as their quarterback, and 2-5 with Andrew Luck under centre. At this point the Colts have to be seriously considering keeping Hassleback as their starter even when Luck is healthy. The guy has done everything to earn the starting position.
- Jamies Winston had his coming out party in Philadelphia. He threw for 5 touchdown passes and seemingly crippled Chip Kelly’s chance of a job for next season. His performance not only tied a rookie record, but showed the world that he might be able to stick around at the pro level for a while. Tampa Bay fans have to be happy at this point.
- Kansas City won their 4th straight game and are making a case for a wildcard spot. Nobody has been playing better than their defense across this span and facing Buffalo, San Diego, a Joe Flacco’less Ravens team, a terrible Cleveland team, and Oakland twice – This team could very easily sneak into the playoff picture in the coming weeks.
- Green Bay won arguably the biggest game all weekend in Minnesota. They handed the Vikings their first loss in six weeks. Had the Vikings won this game they would have been two games up on the Packers, and had a game in hand winning the first of two match-ups. Instead, both these divisional rivals head into week twelve at a stalemate. This should be one of the great headlines to follow as we make our way down the stretch – who gets home field advantage and a bye in the playoffs, and who plays a wildcard game.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+2.5) VS DETRIOT LIONS
The Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) travel north this Thursday to take no the Detroit Lions (3-6) at Ford Field. Philadelphia has been on the ropes the last couple weeks. They have lost two straight games and if they lose again this weekend I have a feeling we might not see Chip Kelly behind the bench much longer. Luckily for Eagles fans they are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings with the Lions. As for Detroit, they are amidst their best stretch of the season. They’ve won back-to-back games for the first time this year. For that reason and others oddsmakers have listed the Lions as 2.5-point home favourites on Thanksgiving day, with a total set of 46-points expected between these two.
It’s a mystery who is going to start at quarterback for the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur wouldn’t specify whether Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford would be the man behind centre, but I don’t think it’ll matter all that much – this is a must win game for the Eagles and Detroit is a perfect opponent for them to get the wheels back in motion. Detroit enters Thursday allowing the 4th most points in the league per game (27.4) and are allowing offensive teams to convert 44% of the time on third down (4th highest). They have compiled strong back-to-back defensive performances but I’m a firm believer that the Eagles style of offense could take the wheels off that train this weekend. Philadelphia has been averaging over 130 rushing yards per game the past three weeks – and given Detroit’s struggle to stop opposing running back this season, this should be concerning for Lions fans. Detroit has allowed an average of 116 rushing yards per game this season (24th) and have given up more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the league with 15. Expect the Eagles to get back to their ground-and-pound ways on Thanksgiving, opening up passing lanes for whomever starts under centre.
Detroit has had major offensive line issues this season. Entering this weekend they are averaging a mere 3.4-yards per carry, have scored only three rushing touchdowns, and have allowed Matthew Stafford to get sacked 26 times (10th most). A poor offensive line has drastic affects on all aspects of an offense, and the Lions average of 18.5 points per game (29th) this year is a direct reflection of that. They haven’t been able to fool defensive coordinators with play action all season, and Stafford is quietly on pace for 20 interceptions for the second time of his career. With the Eagles entering this game averaging over 3 sacks per game in their last three, and sitting behind only Denver with 14 defensive interceptions this season, Stafford could be in for another tough outing.
TRENDS
PHILADELPHIA
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games in November
- 6-0 straight up in games played on Thanksgiving
- 4-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three years
DETRIOT
- 0-5 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
- 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games in week 12
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 30 – LIONS 16
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) look to end a three game losing skid when they welcome the Minnesota Vikings (7-3) into the Georgia Dome this weekend. Atlanta has been slipping down the NFC South standings ever since losing against New Orleans in week six, and desperately need a win to gain confidence down the stretch. As for Minnesota, they’re playing their second road game in three weeks and need a win to stay within reach of the NFC North divisional title. For this matchup oddsmakers have listed the Falcons as 2-point home favourites, with a total set of 46-points.
Atlanta has been riding the ropes the last couple weeks, and I don’t expect that to end this weekend. Minnesota has been playing some of the most complete football in the league this season. They have yet to lose back-to-back football games, are allowing the 3rd fewest points per game in the league (18.3), and have averaged nearly 170 rushing yards per game in the last three weeks. Nobody has been as effective on both sides of the ball this season as Minnesota. Teddy Bridgwater is quietly coming to fruition in his second full season at the starting quarterback, while Adrian Peterson leads the entire league in rushing yards entering week twelve. Their offense might not be the most diverse in the league but it has gotten them to 8-2 against the spread this season, and has been reliable when putting points on the board is necessary. Expect the same outcome again this weekend.
The Falcons have relied heavily on their offense this season to win them games. They are 5-0 in games in which they score 24-points or more this season, but post a terrible 1-4 record when scoring 21-points or less. The success of this team is fuelled by their offense and they could be without a key contributor this weekend, Devonte Freeman. He suffered a concussion during their game last weekend and without him their offense would take a serious blow. Back-up Tevin Coleman is not nearly as proven averaging merely 3.9 yards per carry this season, and the Vikings defense is one of the best at run-stopping in the league. Entering this weekend Minnesota has allowed only five rushing touchdowns all season, 5th best. If they limit the Falcons running attack, can pressure Matt Ryan, and keep them to third and long situations – they should have no problem clinching victory. Minnesota is the 5th best defensive team on third-downs, holding teams to a conversion percentage of 33%.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in week twelve
5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road underdog
23-9 against the spread in their last 32 games overall
13-2-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
ATLANTA
0-4 against the spread after allowing 90 yards rushing or less in the previous game
0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss
5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 16 – FALCONS 13
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+4) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) look to win their third straight game when they host the San Diego Chargers (2-7) this weekend. Jacksonville is amidst the playoff race for the first time in quite some time. They desperately need to win this weekend to keep pace with both the Colts and the Texans. As for San Diego, their season is officially a write off and can begin planning for the 2016 regular season. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Jaguars as 4-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 46.5 points.
San Diego has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this year. Some analysts pegged them as being possible Super Bowl contenders, instead we enter week twelve and this team hasn’t even won three games. Well, I’m expecting that to change this weekend. Jacksonville is a much improved team this season, but 4-point favourites is a little too steep. Entering this matchup they are 30th in the league averaging only 17.8 points per game, and 29th converting only 31% of the time on third down while playing at home. These numbers display just how much the Jaguars have struggled to move the ball offensively this season. While some of you might argue the Chargers defense this season has been less than spectacular, I believe somethings gotta give. The Chargers are riding a six game losing streak and have the necessary talent at quarterback to steal games. Don’t be surprised by a strong defensive effort by the Chargers this weekend.
After a scorching start to the regular season Philip Rivers has cooled off. Albeit, he’s lost much of his good offensive talent to injury this season – Jacksonville is the perfect team for him to pray on to get his mojo back. The Jaguars are allowing nearly 27 points per game this season, (28th) and a league worst 71% red-zone scoring percentage at home; while a 45% conversion percentage ranks them the second worst defense in the league at stopping opposing teams on third-downs. If you’re even considering betting money on the Jaguars this weekend just remember this – they’ve only had two three-game winning streaks in the last five years. Looks to me like San Diego is a prime candidate to upset this weekend.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home
5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games Jacksonville
11-0-1 against the spread versus AFC South opponents the last 12 appearances
11-5 against the spread after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
JACKSONVILLE
6-13-1 against the spread in their last 20 games following a straight up win
4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
9-19-1 against the spread in their last 29 home games
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 27 – JAGUARS 23
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Washington Redskins (4-6) look to avoid consecutive losses when they welcome the New York Giants (5-5) into FedEx field this weekend. New York got the best of Washington in their first game this season 32-21 in week three. It was the first win that the Giants earned this season, and the 5th in a row dating back to the 2013 season. As for the Redskins, they’ve gone 3-4 since last playing the Giants and gravely need a win to stay within the NFC East battle. Oddsmakers have made the Giants 3-point road favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 47 points.
New York is a handful of critical plays and coaching decisions away from being 8-2 this season. They started 0-2 but easily could have been 2-0. They squandered a 13-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys in week one, and a 10-point lead in week two against Atlanta. Combine those two tough losses with the loss two weeks ago against New England – I’m thinking this Giants team should be getting more recognition than they are. Entering this weekend they are 4th highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 27 points per game. Eli Manning has been exposing weak secondaries for much of the season, and his numbers are nothing less than impressive this season. With 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions his touchdown to interception ratio is the 3rd highest amongst all starting quarterbacks this season – only Andy Dalton and Tom Brady are better. With Washington’s defense allowing an average of 28 points per game (27th) in their last three outings, and an average quarterback rating over 100 (6th highest), expect Eli to have another impressive performance this weekend.
Defensive issues have been crumbling the Giants this season. They allowed the Saints to drop 52 points against them in week eight, but something that is regularly overlooked is this teams ability to create turnovers. Entering this weekend they have forced opposing teams to turn the ball over 23 times – second most in the league. With Kirk Cousins throwing 10 interceptions (6th most) and the Redskins offense turning the ball over a total of 19 times this season (6th most) – the Giants could capitalize a couple times this weekend. New York seems to live or die by the big plays this season, I don’t expect this weekend to be any different. Giants win in convincing fashion.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
7-0 against the spread versus below .500 conference opponents
5-1 against the spread after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game
4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
WASHINGTON
1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games after allowing 30 points in their previous game
10-21 against the spread in their last 31 games following a straight up loss of 14 points or more
2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in November