Well, two weeks are in the books and while my record hasn’t gotten better, it hasn’t gotten worse. My picks finished 2-2 in week two with both Denver and Arizona cruising to victory, while the Packers and Chiefs stumbled. Sitting firmly at 4-4 for the season, I’m looking to turn my luck around this weekend. But before I jump ahead into who I’m favouring this weekend, lets take a look at some interesting headlines from last weekend.
- Week two was all over the place. Ten of Sixteen home teams captured a victory, but in ten games the underdogs were able to either cover the spread or win outright. Only the Panthers, Steelers, Texans, Patriots, Cardinals and Broncos were able to cover the spread and secure victories at home in week two.
- How about dem’ Cowboys? Dak lead the Cowboys to their first victory of the season in Washington and things are beginning to look up for Dallas fans. The NFC East looks like it’ll be a much better division this season with the Giants and Eagles vastly improved, but Dallas has the offensive line to score points. So long as Dak continues to take care of the ball, Dallas is in good shape.
- While I’m here, how about dem’ Giants? Last season the Giants couldn’t stop anyone. They were dead last against the run and allowed an astronomical amount of points per game. To start the year they’ve held Dallas and New Orleans both under 20 points. They look poised for a bounce back season.
- Cleveland really shot themselves in the foot. They got off to a 20-2 start against Baltimore only to fail to score a single point in the entire second half. Baltimore did what Baltimore does best and stormed back to win 25-20. The Ravens have to be the biggest surprise sitting at 2-0 right now.
- The Rams officially opened their tenure in Los Angeles and secured a victory against the Seahawks. Their defense looked fantastic, their offense on the other hand, awful. They’ve played 120 minutes of football and have yet to score a touchdown. They should consider themselves lucky to be 1-1.
- Arizona put to bed the question of whether they still had a great football team. They picked up Winston a total of 4 times and this game was done by half. I’ve got a feeling the Cardinals are just beginning to heat up, and given Seattle’s struggles on offense this season the NFC West looks theirs for the taking.
- Von Miller anyone? Denver still looks like the most terrifying defensive team in the league. Miller strip sacked Luck with less than two minutes left in the game and the Broncos picked it up for their second defensive touchdown of the quarter. Great for bettors looking for the Broncos to cover the spread. Terrible for people like myself that were riding the under, that play cost me $1600 in profits.
- Carson Wentz is the guy in Philadelphia. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to win his first two game and not throw a single interception. Impressive start to his career but Pittsburgh will be the real test this weekend. Cleveland and Chicago might just be the two worst teams in the league this season.
- Sam Bradford anyone? anyone?… I’m just as shocked as everyone else. When the September 1st trade happened I’ll have to admit I found myself face-palming. But after his performance against Green Bay completing 22 of 31 passes for two touchdowns, zero interceptions and 286 yards, I’m beginning to believe he could just fit into Mike Zimmer’s scheme.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) look to stay perfect this weekend when they welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) into town. The last time these two teams met in Philadelphia was way back in 2008. Donovan McNabb orchestrated the Eagles to a 15-6 victory, while holding the Steelers under 200 total yards on offense. To complete a task such as that this weekend would be nothing short of miraculous. For this non-conference matchup oddsmakers have listed the Steelers as 3.5-point favourites, with a total set of 46 points expected.
The future is looking very bright in Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has been playing like a seasoned veteran through his first two starts in the NFL, but you’ve gotta be crazy to think this streak won’t come to an end. Expect Pittsburgh to show the true colours of Wentz, and remind everyone that this kid is still a rookie. He managed to lead the Eagles to 29 points in Chicago on Monday, but their offense looked average at best. They scored only 9-points before halftime and had plenty of missed opportunities. Those missed opportunities didn’t come back to hurt them, but this weekend they will. Philadelphia enters this game 28th in the league on third down conversions. They’re converting only 26.67% of the time, better than only the Rams, Jaguars, Bengals and Bills. That number is going to have to vastly improve if they hope to keep the Steelers high octane offense off the field, and the way the numbers are stacking up it looks like the latter will happen. Through two weeks the Steelers defense in 3rd in the league on third down conversions, limiting teams to conversions just 26.92%. Just let that sink in for a minute.
Pittsburgh is off to their first 2-0 start since 2010. That season the Steelers finished with a 12-4 record and went on to win the SuperBowl. Now that is setting the bar high for expectations after only two weeks, but Philadelphia should be a good test. The Eagles defense looks vastly improved this season but they also have yet to face a real offense, and have themselves in deep water this weekend. Pittsburgh enters this game averaging over 30 points per game, (4th) are 51.61% on third down conversions, (4th) and are a perfect 100% in the red-zone this season (1st). Philadelphia might be able to shut down two porous offensive teams, but Pittsburgh is a different beast. Look for Roethlisberger to get the better of this Eagles defense. While Wentz and the Eagles offense turns the ball over trying to play catchup to a far superior football team.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 6-3 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
- 18-6-2 against the spread in their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning home record
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in September
- 2-0-2 against the spread in their last 4 road games
PHILADELPHIA
- 0-4 against the spread after playing on Monday Night Football
- 0-7 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games as a home underdog
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 27 – EAGLES 17
WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5)
The New York Giants (2-0) aim to stay perfect when they welcome division rivals Washington (0-2) into Met Life this weekend. The last time these teams met was week seventeen in 2015 where the Redskins knocked off the Giants 20-14 and secured the NFC East title. You can bet New York remembers that game and will look to exact revenge this weekend and extend their divisional lead. Oddsmakers have listed the Giants as 4.5-point home favourites with a total set of 45.5 points.
We’re only entering week three, but it looks like Washington has already shot themselves in the foot. They are the only team in the NFC East yet to win a game and tempers are beginning to fly as several outlets reported animosity inside the locker room. Reportedly players are unhappy with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and that doesn’t surprise me. Mr. “Do You Like That” has been nothing short of terrible this year. Through two games he has only one touchdown to go with three interceptions, and sits 27th in average quarterback ratings of all starters at 78.5. It can’t get much worse for Kirk than this, can it? Unfortunately the answer to that question is yes. In the five games against the Giants he has zero multiple touchdown games, and a total of 8 interceptions.
Washington’s offense has been taking all the heat this season, but how about we talk about their defense for a minute. Through the first two games the Redskins are allowing opponents to score an average of 32 points per game (30th). Fewer points than only Oakland and Indianapolis in the entire league. Looking a little deeper into their numbers defensive numbers, they don’t have a leg to stand on. In two games they’ve given up five rushing touchdowns (most in the league) and have allowed opponents to convert a ridiculous 57.95% of the time on third down, worst in the entire league. When you factor in this will be their first game on the road this season, things aren’t looking too good for them again this weekend.
It’ll be hard to bet on a struggling Redskins offense this weekend with how well the Giants defense has been playing to begin the season. Through two weeks they’ve held opponents to an average of 71 rushing yards (4th) and 16 points per game (9th). Compare those numbers to last season where they gave up 121 rushing yards and 27.6 points per game, things are looking up for this defense. With Washington struggling on both sides of the ball entering this game, the Giants playing behind their home crowd, and their offense having yet to find their stride; all arrows point toward New York smoking Washington this weekend.
TRENDS
WASHINGTON
- 4-10-1 against the spread in their 15 games in week three
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games in September
- 2-7 against the spread after two or more consecutive loses the last three seasons
NEW YORK
- 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games in September
- 3-1 against the spread versus Washington the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – REDSKINS 23 – GIANTS 30
CHICAGO BEARS VS DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)
The Dallas Cowboys (1-1) are set to host the Chicago Bears (0-2) on Sunday night football this weekend. Dallas travels home after knocking off division rivals Washington in week two. While the Bears are still aiming for their first win of the 2016 season. The last time these two teams met in Dallas the Bears picked off Tony Romo five times on route to a 34-18 victory in 2012. This time around Dallas has been listed as 6.5-point home favourites, with a total set of 44.5 points expected.
Turmoil is mounting in Chicago as they open the season at 0-2, and I suspect things aren’t going to get any better this weekend. Dallas is one of the tougher stadiums in the league to play in, and this weekend they’ll be taking on the Cowboys with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer. Hoyer isn’t much of a downgrade from Cutler at quarterback, but he won’t be to guy to solve the Bears offensive problems this season either. Through two weeks Chicago ranks 25th in the league averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game, and 29th averaging 202 passing yards per game. Expecting Brian Hoyer to help improve those numbers this weekend would be hocus-pocus.
The most important statistic to follow during this game will be the time of possession. Through two weeks the Bears rank dead last in the league holding onto the ball an average of 24 minutes per game. When looking at that number it is no surprise Chicago has started 0-2. Their offense hasn’t been able to stay on the field long enough to give their defense some rest, and I expect to see the same outcome this weekend. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in football, and are possession hogs. Through two games the Cowboys are averaging around 35 minutes of possession per game (5th highest in the league). Unless the Bears find a way to turn the ball over multiple times this weekend, the stats say we’ll be seeing a whole lot of the Cowboys offense.
Don’t tell Dak Prescott he is a rookie, because he looks like a seasoned veteran under center. In his first two professional games he hasn’t thrown a single interception and has the Cowboys converting 55.17% of the time on third down, 2nd best in the entire league. (Patriots are #1). All the numbers point towards Dallas controlling this game and the Bears waking up on Monday at 0-3. Don’t sleep on the 6.5-point spread, its only gonna get bigger until we reach kickoff on Sunday.
TRENDS
CHICAGO
- 0-3 against the spread versus NFC East opponents the last three seasons
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games in September
DALLAS
- 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games after allowing 350 yards or more in their previous game
- 2-0 against the spread in their last two games off a divisional game
FINAL SCORE – BEARS 10 – COWBOYS 29
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5)
The Indianapolis Colts (0-2) are set to take on the San Diego Chargers (1-1) this Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have had a rough start to the season and are quickly in a must win situation this weekend at home. Since 2007 only seven of 75 teams have made the playoffs after starting the year 0-2. As for San Diego they find themselves at 1-1 and look to make it four straight victories in Indianapolis. Oddsmakers have listed the Colts as 2.5-point home favourites, with a shootout expected as the over/under line is set at 51.5.
Indianapolis is bad. Their offensive line is a mess, and they’ve allowed a league high 73 points on defense this season. But this is a must win game and I’m gonna ride the team with their backs against the wall at home. Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league but he hasn’t been able to rely on the run game, which in turn has closed the playbook on any play-action. I’m expecting that to change against San Diego. The Chargers have enjoyed big leads in both games this season which means their run defense hasn’t been tested; yet they still find themselves 32nd in the league allowing a league high 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Frank Gore might be getting up their age but he’s still got some left in the tank and if the Colts can establish a run game early it’ll give Luck time and space to connect with his receivers.
San Diego has been living off turnovers to start the season. Through two weeks they’ve forced four. This is one of the keys to victory for the Colts, they must take care of the football. Last weekend they turned the ball over two times for a total of 14-points. Erase those points and Indianapolis would have been tied with the reigning SuperBowl champions Denver Broncos. No surprise here, San Diego is nowhere near the calibre of the Broncos defense, and Luck should expose their weaknesses this weekend. The Chargers enter last in the league in red-zone defense giving up six touchdowns already this season. While the Colts enter #1 in the league scoring a touchdown in every single red-zone possession this season. We should see the true colours of this Chargers defense this weekend when they face the best quarterback and offense they’ve seen all year.
The Chargers offense has been very impressive to start the year, but Philip Rivers will be without both Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the remainder of the season. These two guys cannot be overlooked. In 2015 they combined for 30% of Philip Rivers targets and 33% of his completions. Rivers has been without Allen before but the loss of Woodhead in the backfield is what really hurts. In the last three full games Woodhead has 21 receptions while garnering 5 red-zone targets before getting injured. I’m fully expecting the Chargers offense to stall this weekend. Colts win in a do-or-die situation; and do so in convincing fashion.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win
INDIANAPOLIS
- 21-9 against the spread in their last 30 games following a straight up loss
- 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games versus AFC West opponents
- 4-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons