Week two was absolutely chaotic. Favourites finished a combined 6-10 against the spread for the weekend. While home underdogs not only covered the spread, but finish 4-1 straight up overall. Here’s a little recap of some of the action incase you missed out.
- The NFC East is doing their best NFC South impersonation. The Giants slipped to 0-2, along with the Eagles. While the Cowboys improved to 2-0 but lost Romo for what looks like weeks. Is it to early to think the 1-1 Redskins could actually win this division? Yuck.
- Drew Brees, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo all went down in week two with injuries. While some are more minor than others. It’s looking like these three teams could be reeling for the next couple games. (Except Chicago, they might be better off without Cutler).
- Julio Jones and Antonio Browns both had monster games. Its difficult to point a finger at who is going to be the best receiver in the league this season. They are each averaging nearly 150 yards per season. If that rate continues we’ll have two 2,000 yard pass catchers this season.
- New England once against silenced us putting a clinic on in Buffalo. Tom Brady made Rex Ryan’s defense look like they were in high school scoring 40 points. The final score was much closer than this game actually was. Once again, the Patriots look unstoppable.
- Johnny Football led the Browns to their first win of the season, but lets not get to excited. The kid finished 8 for 17 with a 172 yards and two touchdowns, but over half those yards came on two throws. Don’t look for anything special out of this team in the coming weeks. This was bound to happen eventually, but it surely will not continue. If this team wins games it will be because of their strong defense.
- Jacksonville and Oakland were both able to get the monkey off their backs early this season. It usually takes them about 8 weeks to get their first win, they both did it in week two this season. Lets not get overly excited though. Neither of these teams are playoff contenders.
- Arizona put up the strongest performance all weekend controlling the Bears for four quarters. Chicago is in absolute shambles and has to travel into Seattle this weekend to take on a Seahawks team that will be very hungry for a win. Not looking good for arguably the worst team in the league.
- Chip Kelly anyone? Philadelphia had possibly the most embarrassing game all weekend scoring only 10 points in their home opener. Their offensive line couldn’t stop kittens from tackling Sam Bradford and Demarco Murray. The future is looking awful bleak in Philadelphia. Maybe paying all that money to Bryon Maxwell in the off-season wasn’t the solution for their defensive losses.
- Legion of boom is slowly becoming the legion of doom. Teams that start 0-2 have only a 11% chance at making the post-season. While Seattle will surely turn things around, catching Arizona should be another story. The two games between these two teams could easily decide who wins the NFC West this season. Might be to early to see, but I’ve got all my chips on Arizona year.
- The New York Jets have forced 10 turnovers through their first two games, an NFL record. The way they have played through two weeks is astonishing. The expectations were there for their defense to be good this season, but nobody expected them to be this good.
My predictions once again finished 2-2 on the weekend. But for those of you who payed closer attention to the “loot value” I have established, might have finished 2-0. Both Arizona and Cincinnati covered their spreads and it was these two games which I was most confident in placing loot values of 750 and 875 on both games (out of a possible 1000). As for the Bills and Giants, they both lost at home. New York blew a 10-point forth quarter lead, while Buffalo was behind nearly all afternoon against the Patriots. My record new sits at 4-4 on the season, but 2-0 in games which I establish a loot value of 750 or higher. Lets take a look at where the loot lies this weekend.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Baltimore Ravens (0-2) are looking to get their first win of the season when they host the Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) this weekend. This marks the first time the Ravens have a 0-2 record to start the season since 2005. While the Bengals improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2006. This marks the first of two divisional matchup’s between these teams this season, and oddsmakers have listed the hometown Ravens as 3-point favourites with a total set of 44.5 points.
It’s been a slippery slope for the Ravens to start the season. They put up a great defensive performance in week one against Denver but lost their best defensive player Terrell Suggs for the season due to injury. All I can say is that injury was felt in week two. Their defense allowed Oakland to score 37-points. Since 2008 this was only the sixth time that the Ravens have allowed a team to score 35-points or more. This was an embarrassing performance and things aren’t going to get any easier this weekend. Cincinnati sits 7th overall averaging almost 400 yards of total offense per game through two weeks, and have yet to be held under 20 points. It looks like the Bengals are the most talented offensive team they have faced yet this season.
Baltimore almost always puts up a fight in divisional games, but they have struggled against Cincinnati as of late. They are 1-4 in their last five games against the Bengals, and have held them under 20 points just once. With the line set between +3 and -3 for a fourth straight game, many might expect another close game. But how can we ignore the lopsided talent? On the defensive side of the ball the Bengals have six sacks, two interceptions and three forced fumbles already this season. They are well on their way to becoming a defensive powerhouse, and this isn’t even the strongest part of this team. It is their offensive line. Through two weeks they have yet to give up a sack, and are top ten in the league averaging nearly 5 yards per rushing attempt. If the Ravens fail to pressure Andy Dalton, it will be a third straight loss for the birds and a stretch for them to make the post-season for a second consecutive year.
After two weeks Joe Flacco has more interceptions than touchdown passes. He has only two touchdown passes and three interceptions. While it is a little early to panic, the fact he has zero completions over 40 yards should be concerning. Flacco has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league the last couple seasons throwing downfield. Letting Torrey Smith walk to San Francisco is looking like a mistake early on. Steve Smith can still catch balls but is getting up their age, while Kamar Aiken has not looked spectacular in his first two career starts. Don’t be surprised when the Bengals slow down the Ravens for a third straight week and put a serious choke-hold on the AFC North.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 5-0 after facing an AFC West opponent
- 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games in week three
- 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a win
- 19-6-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 9-1 when above .500 underdogs versus opponents off a straight up loss in weeks 1-4
RAVENS
- 0-5 against the spread in their last five games as a favourite
- 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 after allowing over 350 total yards in the previous game
- 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 6 games versus division opponents
- 0-7 versus opponents off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins
LOOT VALUE – 675
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 23 – RAVENS 16
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)
The New England Patriots (2-0) return home this weekend to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1). Jacksonville will be aiming to win back-to-back games for the second time since 2011. While the Patriots are looking to improve on their 16-1 home record the last three seasons. Oddsmakers have made New England 13.5-point favourites, in what is expected to be one of the biggest blowouts of the weekend.
Jacksonville has looked surprisingly decent through two weeks this season, but let me remind you they have yet to play a game on the road. In the Jaguars eight road games last season they finished 0-8, allowed an average of 27 points per game, and lost by an average margin of 14 points. Playing away from home was a serious struggle and I have no reason to believe those problems won’t boil over to this season.
14-points or two touchdowns. It’s a large spread to take in favour of the Patriots, but they have been unstoppable early this season. Brady, Gronkowski and Edleman are all healthy right now and show no signs of slowing down. Brady through his first two games has 754 passing yards. It’s ridiculous to think, but at this rate he is going to break 6,000 passing yards. While the Jaguars passing defense looked fantastic in its first two weeks, we need to remember who they faced – a Panthers team that is decimated by injuries and has zero depth, and a Dolphins team that is struggling to find the red-zone this season. New England is the hottest offensive team in the league and the Jaguars defense just doesn’t stack up. If Brady can score 40 points against the Bills, I’m anxious to see what he is capable against a much inferior Jacksonville team.
While everyone is talking about the Patriots offense, nobody has really been discussing their defense. Through two games they lead the league with 11 sacks and are in the top five with four turnovers. With the Jaguars offensive line having a troubled history of protecting their quarterback, and the Patriots scoring an average of 33 points per game at home last season. New England should cruise to victory. Look no further than the fact New England went 7-1 at home last year, and won games by an average of 17 points last season. The only way Jacksonville covers in this game is a nasty 4th quarter-garbage-time touchdown. Something I’m a firm believer in will not happen.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 following a straight up win
- 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games in september
NEW ENGLAND
- 5-2 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
- 72-33-2 against the spread in their last 107 games after accumulating 350 totals yards or more in their previous game
- 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 home games
- 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games after allowing 30-points or more
LOOT VALUE – 715
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 13 – PATRIOTS 36
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)
The San Francisco 49ers (1-1) travel south this weekend to take on divisional rivals Arizona (2-0) in the University of Phoenix Stadium. With a win the Cardinals would take a stranglehold of the NFC West division. While the 49ers are hoping they can recover from their worst loss since 2013 in Seattle. Given how the Cardinals have played through two weeks, oddsmakers have listed them as 6.5-point home favourites for this game with a total set of 43.5 points.
San Francisco closes out their longest road trip of the season this weekend in Arizona. It will be their first divisional game of the season and frankly they are in trouble. Arizona is playing at a higher level than nearly every other team in the league through the first two weeks. They have scored 11 touchdowns, combined for 79 total points, and won each game by an average of 18 points (leading the league in all categories). Honestly, do you really think that San Francisco has the talent to slow them down this weekend? Not a chance. San Francisco allowed an embarrassing 43-points last weekend in Pittsburgh, and were 2-6 in divisional match-ups last season. The outcome of this game is looking bleak for San Francisco fans.
Carson Palmer is tied with Tom Brady through two games for the most touchdowns in the league. I mentioned this last weekend, and I’ll mention it once again. Palmer has not lost a game under center for the Cardinals since 2013. He has been incredible and their offensive line has a large helping hand in that. They have yet to give up a sack and have allowed Palmer to be hurried only seven times this season. If San Francisco fails to apply pressure this weekend then Palmer will filet this 49ers secondary. After all through two weeks the 49ers are allowing an average of 273 passing yards per game.
Don’t let the 49ers fool you. They started the season off strong but we got a real glimpse of what this team is capable of last weekend when Pittsburgh smashed them. The ceiling is only so high for first year head coach Jim Tomsula. Lay the points and take Arizona at home this weekend to win against their division rivals.
TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO
- 0-8 after allowing 28 points or more in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in week three
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 following a straight up loss
- 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games overall
ARIZONA
- 7-0-1 versus opponents off double-digit straight up losses
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games following an against the spread win
- 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games as a favourite
LOOT VALUE – 795
FINAL SCORE – ARIZONA 28 – SAN FRANCISCO 17
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-1) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
The St. Louis Rams (1-1) return home this weekend to host the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams are coming off a seriously disappointing appearance in Washington were they fell 24-10. While the Steelers are fresh off a convincing win against the Rams divisional rivals San Francisco. Oddsmakers have listed the Steelers as 1-point road favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 47.5 points.
After week one I was extremely optimistic about the Ram’s this season. Despite allowing plenty of points they defeated Seattle at home and their offense showed flashes of brilliance. Well, that all went down the tubes in Washington. They couldn’t move the ball whatsoever on offense mustering only 10 points. But for me, it was their defensive performance that was most surprising. They had such high praise heading into the season with many analysts arguing their front four was the best in the NFL. Well, all I can say is up to this point they have been about as far as you can get from that. Through two weeks they have allowed 110 yards rushing or more in each game, and this trend looks very likely to continue. Pittsburgh has shown what they are capable of on offense and are tied for the league lead with four rushing touchdowns already this season. With Le’veon Bell set to make his much awaited debut in St. Louis the Rams could be in hot water. Don’t be surprised when they allow 100-yards rushing for a third consecutive game this weekend.
Nick Foles will have to be electric if St. Louis hopes to win their second game of the season. Last week he completed just over a 50% of his passes for an average of 4.69 yards per catch. If he struggles looking downfield again this weekend the Rams are going to fall behind in this game. After two weeks Roethlisberger leads the league with 10 completions of 20 yards or more, and 5 completions of 50 yards or more. We are all aware of what Antonio Brown is capable of, it’s just a question of whether St. Louis can keep pace and put points on the board. Personally, I’ll take the 1-point and run with the Steelers this weekend. This spread should be somewhere closer to Steelers -6.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 6-2 in their last 8 games versus St. Louis
- 4-0 against the spread after allowing 250 passing yards or more in their previous game
ST. LOUIS
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games in week three
- 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
- 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games as a home underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 15-36-2 against the spread in their last 53 games in september