Week Twelve was yet another success. My predictions finished 2-1-1 catapulting me to a second straight week above .500. In my four picks, Washington covered 7-points on Thanksgiving, while the Giants dismantled the Browns on Sunday. While the Raiders earned a push winning by exactly 3-points, and my single wrong prediction was Philadelphia handing Green Bay their 5th straight loss. Entering week thirteen my record is now 25-19-2 on the year. As we head down the stretch things are looking just peachy and simply cannot wait to see how the remainder of the season shakes up. With only five weeks left, here is some important annotations for you all to chew on.
- Detroit defeated Minnesota on Thursday and took a two game lead in the NFC North, but this division is far from decided. The Lions play on the road in New Orleans, New York and Dallas, while they host Green Bay and Chicago to close out the season. They could easily lose four out of five of those games and leave the door wide open for either Minnesota or Green Bay to sneak into the playoffs. Wouldn’t it be something if the week seventeen game they play against Green Bay decides the division? That would be bonkers.
- Dallas has officially cemented themselves as the best team in football. They improved to 10-1 after beating Washington on Thursday and could be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win and either a Washington Loss or Tampa Bay loss or tie. With Seattle losing in Tampa Bay in week Twelve, the road to the SuperBowl in the NFC is almost certainly going through Dallas.
- Baltimore once again exposed the rulebook on Sunday. In the final play of the game Jim Harbaugh had every player on his defense hold opposing players to run out the clock while his punter took a safety in the end-zone to wind out the clock. This earned them a 19-14 win, and a considered “tie” when discussing a tribet because the game was decided by less than 6-points. That single play earned me a nice payday, and I couldn’t be happier.
- Jared Goff kept pace with Drew Brees early in week twelve throwing for three touchdowns in the first half. When witnessing this I couldn’t help but ask myself, why hasn’t this guy been playing all year? Then I remembered that Jeff Fisher is the head coach. Fisher is approaching the most losses ever for a head coach and can’t seem to do anything right. When asked in a press conference this week about the Patriots game this weekend he said “Danny Woodhead is an exceptional playmaker in their offense”. Can someone please tell this guy that Woodhead hasn’t played for the Patriots in over two years. How does this clown still have a job? Its embarrassing.
- Arizona has lost four of their last five games. They’re officially way outside the playoff picture and this has to be the biggest surprise of the season. I had such high expectations for them entering the year. I predicted them as a lock to win at least 10 games this year, and it looks like I’m officially swallowing that loss as they can only reach 9 wins if they win out the remainder of the season.
- The NFC South is arguably the most exciting divisional playoff race to watch down the stretch. Atlanta is in first place at 7-4, Tampa Bay is only a game back at 6-5, while New Orleans is 5-6 and Carolina is 4-7. Both Carolina and Atlanta only have two divisional games left, but New Orleans and Tampa Bay both have three. This is going to be extremely exciting to watch in the last five weeks, it’s a crap shoot who makes it in as far as I’m concerned.
- Two of the hottest teams in the league right now are Miami and the NY Giants. They’ve both won six straight games and are on the cusp of making a wild-card spot. At this point I’d take the bait as Miami making the playoffs before New York this year. The Giants have had the 6th easiest schedule this season and during their current streak haven’t played a single team with a winning record.
- Oakland continues to find ways to win. They blew a 21-point half-time lead against Carolina but they closed out the game and earned their 5th straight win. I’d just like to say it is about time people started discussing the Raiders as the best team in the AFC. New England is always going to be a great so long as Tom Brady is under center, but Oakland just swept Denver, Houston and Carolina – three playoff teams from last year, and both teams that played in last years Super Bowl.
- Kahlil Mack has awoken. After a slow start Mack earned a sack, interception for a touchdown, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery on Sunday against Carolina; becoming the first player since Charles Woodson in 2009 to complete all five of those in a single game. Mack is playing at a higher level than any defensive player right now and I’m hopeful it stays that way. Pre-season I predicted him to be defensive MVP this year, and at this rate he is making a mighty good case to be the front-runner.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)
The Green Bay Packers (5-6) return to Lambeau Field this weekend to take on the Houston Texans (6-5). Houston is amidst a two-game losing streak, the longest of their season. They travel into Green Bay this weekend to take on a Packers team that has their back completely against the wall, and a long way to go to make a 7th consecutive playoff appearance. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 6-point home favourites for this non-conference matchup, with a total set of 45.5 points.
Green Bay has been absolutely terrible in several aspects this season. But one thing the Monday Night game in Philadelphia reminded me is that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in this league. Rodgers can unload the ball faster than what it takes most quarterbacks in this league to look up, and is easily one of the best at extending plays next to Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. This weekend he will face a Texans team that is amongst the best in the league, but I don’t think that matters. Rodgers has shown us that he can dismantle the best secondaries in this league when his offensive line gives him enough time, and can fit passes into spaces most other quarterbacks could only dream of. I’m predicting this Packers team has one of their best games all season against Houston. The Texans have lost two straight, and rely much to heavily on their defense to keep them in games. Entering week thirteen the Texans secondary is 5th in the league giving up an average of 209 passing yards per game, and are very impressive on 3rd down allowing teams to convert only 37.24% of the time (7th). The only problem is those numbers are beginning to fall. In the last three weeks the Texans have allowed an average of 259 passing yards per game, (23rd) and a 3rd down conversion percentage of 46.15% (27th). The leg that has been holding up this team nearly all season is beginning to break, and that is terrible news as they enter one of the toughest and coldest stadiums in the league to play in this weekend.
Its as simple as this – the Texans offense relies upon their defense and special teams to give them good field position to score points. I don’t think Brock Osweiler has orchestrated a 2-minute drill this entire season for points and is seemingly getting worse as the season progresses. Last weekend again San Diego Osweiler managed to throw 3 interceptions. Now that is not all that bad when you compare him to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but his mistakes are beginning to add up and true colours are beginning to show. In 11 games this season Osweiler has 13 interceptions, compared to 12 touchdowns. He has compiled a 59.5% completion percentage (27th) and a league worst average of 7.5 yards per completion on the road this year. These numbers are incredibly terrible when you consider that he has a pro-bowl receiver in DeAndre Hopkins to target, an offensive line that has given him great protection all year and a decent running game to sit back on. Green Bay has been gouged by several teams this season but the Texans offense is the far off from the talent they have faced in the last few weeks. In the Packers last five games they have played Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Indianapolis and Philadelphia. Each of these teams are inside the top 15 teams in points per game, while Atlanta, Tennessee and Washington are all inside the top 10. Houston enters this game 27th in the league scoring an average of 17.6 points per game, and are the worst offense in the league on the road scoring only 13.2 points per game. It won’t take an incredible performance this weekend for the Packers to win this game by a touchdown. Just a couple of mistakes by Houston, and some vintage Aaron Rodgers – two things that are more than likely as they return home for the first time in four weeks. Look for Green Bay to hand the Texans one of their worst losses all season long in Lambeau this weekend.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 0-3 against the spread this season as an underdog between 3.5-9.5 points
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games
GREEN BAY
- 11-4-2 against the spread in their last 16 games as a home favourite between 3.5-7 points
- 8-2 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in December
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 16 – PACKERS 34
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+2) VS CHICAGO BEARS
A battle of two of the worst teams in the league take place this weekend when the Chicago Bears (2-9) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (1-10) into town. Chicago has lost three straight games for the third time this season but have to be thankful that they play back-to-back home games for the first time all year this weekend. As for San Francisco, they’ve lost ten straight. Their only victory this season came in week one as they shut-out Los Angeles 28-0 in San Francisco. Oddsmakers have listed the Bears 2-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 43.5 points expected.
To be honest, this game is one that nobody wants to watch. Both of these teams are terrible this year and their combined three wins exemplify that. With that being said, San Francisco is the better of these two teams, they have less injuries and a much more talented roster than Chicago, starting with their quarterback. Kaepernick has been put through the ringer this year between media publicity for keeling during the national anthem, and his comments on Fidel Castro this past week. But nobody can ignore that his number on the field have been gradually improving. In the last three games he has 6 touchdowns, only 1 interception and 200 rushing yards. Chicago hasn’t been terrible defensively this season, but a few statistics point towards this 49ers team having plenty of opportunities to put up points this weekend. In the last three weeks Chicago’s defense has allowed an average of 12.4 yards per passing completion, 28th in the league. They have been getting beat over the top and San Francisco can expose that. This season the 49ers are averaging 11.1 yards per completion on the road, 9th best in the league.
Both of these teams have been down and out for a while now. But the 49ers have a couple playmakers on their roster offensively; Chicago cannot say the same. Entering this weekend the Bears are without both Jay Cutler and Ashlon Jeffery. Cutler is still dealing with an injury, while Jeffery was suspended for the remainder of the season due to the use of performance enhancing drugs. Without Jeffery in the lineup the Bears have absolutely no playmaking receivers. Kevin White could develop into a big-time receiver in the future, but he hasn’t caught one touchdown all season and now has the courtesy of Matt Barkley throwing him the ball. Barkley has played in only two games this season and has a combined three touchdowns and four interceptions. Not absolutely awful, but his average quarterback rating of 33.6 and average yards per completion of 5.75 are terrible. Chicago will only be able to ride their running game for so long in this game before Barkley has to start making plays, and I’m just not convinced he is capable even against a suspect 49ers defense.
On an unrelated note, don’t expect the stadium to be packed for this game this weekend. It might be more interesting watching paint dry. Nonetheless, the eyeball test and my gut are telling me San Francisco earns their 2nd win of the year in Chicago this weekend.
TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 7-4 against the spread versus Chicago since 1992
CHICAGO
- 0-9 against the spread in their last 9 games in week 13
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing road record
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 home games
FINAL SCORE – 49ERS 25 – BEARS 20
BUFFALO BILLS (+3.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Oakland Raiders (9-2) welcome the Buffalo Bills (6-5) into the Coliseum this weekend. Oakland has been rolling since week seven, they’ve won five straight and aim to improve on their perfect 4-0 record this season versus non-divisional AFC conference opponents. As for Buffalo, they’ve tied back-to-back victories together since returning from their bye week, and really should be 7-4 when you consider the fiasco in Seattle a couple weeks ago. The last time these two clashed was 2014 in Oakland, the Raiders earned a 26-24 over Buffalo. This time around oddsmakers have listed Oakland as 3.5-point home favourites, with a total set of 48.5 points expected.
Everything has been peachy keen in Oakland this season. The Raiders are finally relevant again, and Derek Carr is making a legitimate case as MVP this season. They’ve got playmakers on both sides of the ball and while playing in the black hole is never easy, I’ve got reason to believe the Buffalo is more than capable of knocking off Oakland this weekend, and here is why.
Buffalo has a pass rush that can contend with the Raiders elite offensive line. Entering this weekend Carr has been sacked only 13-times this year, tied for fewest in the league. But Buffalo can challenge that protection better than anyone has all season long. Entering week twelve the Bills have 32 sacks as a team (2nd highest) while veteran linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for 2nd most in the league with 10. Rex Ryan is known for his zone blitzing schemes and the Raiders back-field will surely be required to pick them up this weekend. If Buffalo can apply enough pressure and keep the Raiders to third-and-long situations they’ll have a great shot at winning this game. I say this because the Bills have been one of the best teams on the road this season in third-down situations. They enter 5th in the league limiting opponents to third down conversions only 35.62% of the time at home. Incorporate that with the fact their passing defense is 8th allowing an average of 228 yards per game, and we could very well be in for another close game this weekend.
Oakland’s only two losses this season have come against Atlanta and Kansas City. What do these two teams have in common? They both gouged the Raiders running the ball. These two teams combined for 323 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns against the Raiders. It has been no secret that this season the Raiders have struggled defensively in the run game, and Buffalo is the best rushing team they’ve faced all year. Entering week twelve the Bills are 1st in yards per rush, (5.3) and rushing yards per game (157.4). LeSean McCoy is having a major bounce back year with 9 rushing touchdowns, while Tyrod Taylor could easily be inserted into the conversation of most mobile quarterback in the league. When you compare this information to that of Oakland’s rushing defense, you’ll find a serious mismatch. Entering this weekend the Raiders are 30th in the league giving up 4.6 yards per carry, and 26th allowing an average of 116.9 rushing yards per game. Unless Kahlil Mack finds a way to completely take this game over, then I’ve got plenty of reasons to believe that Buffalo keeps this game close – heck, I might even go as far to say the Bills hand them their 3rd loss this season. Just don’t wait until Sunday, because this line will move in favour of Buffalo.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 5-2-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 7-2 against the spread when playing a team in the second half of the season the last three seasons
- 14-7 against the spread in the last three seasons as an underdog
OAKLAND
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games
- 8-24 against the spread in their last 32 games as a home favourite
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 28 – RAIDERS 27
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) VS SAN DEIGO CHARGERS
The San Diego Chargers (5-6) welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) into Qualcomm stadium this weekend. After starting the year 1-4 the Chargers have quietly won four of their last six outings. The storyline for this season reads “what could have been in San Diego”. This is because four of the Chargers six losses this season have been by 6-points or fewer. As for Tampa Bay, they find themselves in a very similar boat. They lost 3 of their first 4 games, but have since gone 5-2. Entering this weekend oddsmakers have listed the Chargers as 4-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 47.5 points.
San Diego undoubtedly has been playing much better in the last couple weeks, but I’m far from convinced that they should be favoured in this game by 4-points. In back-to-back weeks Tampa Bay has taken down two of the best teams in this league. They defeated Kansas City 19-17 on the road in Arrowhead Stadium, then returned home and limited the Seahawks to 5-points in a 14-5 victory. This defense has been playing at a different level since getting embarrassed 28-43 in week 9 versus division rivals Atlanta. They’ve allowed a combined 33-points in the last three games, and have been terrific in limiting opponents passing yards and are getting off the field in third-down situations. In the last three weeks the Buccaneers have held opposing teams to an average of 180 passing yards per game, (2nd best) a 23.33% third down conversion percentage (1st) and only two passing touchdowns. At 6-5 Tampa Bay isn’t far outside the playoff picture, they sit only a game back of Atlanta for the lead in the NFC South. This game is extremely important to keep pace and stay relevant in the play-off picture this season. Philip Rivers is surely the best quarterback this team has faced in the last couple weeks, but he is also prone to mistakes. In the last two games Rivers has thrown 5 interceptions and has struggled with much worse defensive teams this season.
Mike Evans is quietly making a case as the best wide receiver in this league this season. In the last four games Evans has 425 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Turn the page and Evans 10 touchdowns is tied for best in the league, while the 133 targets he has seen this season is more than double what the next best pass catcher on Tampa Bay has seen. Jamies Winston clearly favours Evans over any other receiver on this team and there is no reason he shouldn’t. At 6’5, Evans is one of the biggest receivers in the league, and his wingspan of 35 1/8″ is longer than nearly every other pass catcher. This kid is an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to cover, and San Diego will become the next on a long list of teams that have struggled to shut him down. At 26.5 points per game, the Chargers are allowing the 26th most points in the league per game. While their red-zone defense has be horrendous at home this season. They’re allowing opponents to score 83.33% of the time when inside the 20-yard line. The exact area where Evans and Winston have hooked up for most of their touchdowns this season. Six of the ten touchdowns Evans has scored this season have been within his opponents 20-yard line. Look for another strong performance this weekend and for the Buccaneers defense to have their third straight impressive performance.
TRENDS
TAMPA BAY
- 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road underdog
- 4-1 against the spread after allowing less than 15-points in their previous game
SAN DEIGO
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight up win
FINAL SCORE – BUCCANEERS 26 – CHARGERS 24