It only took ten weeks and until nearly the end of December, but I finally picked a winning weekend! The Patriots, Seahawks and Cardinals were all winners in the books and on my scoresheet – while the Jets earned me my second push of the season. With a 3-0-1 finish to the weekend I’m feeling rejuvenated and ready for everything the last two weeks has to offer. Entering week sixteen my record is now officially 27-28-2 and I’m ready to pull ahead of .500 for the first time since week seven. But before I go streaking down the stretch – here’s some important things that happened this past weekend and information that could shape the playoffs down the stretch.
- The Playoff picture is really shaping up following week fifteen. The Raiders, Bills and Dolphins are now officially eliminated from the AFC. While the Rams, Bears, Cowboys and Saints were all ousted from the NFC this past weekend.
- The AFC South and NFC East are the only two divisions left open. Three teams from each of these divisions have a shot at heading to the playoffs. This will be extremely exciting to follow with only two weeks remaining and several of these teams playing one another to stay alive or clinch a position.
- Kansas City extended their streak to 8 games and only Oakland and Cleveland stand between them finishing the season 10-0. While its still surprisingly possible they capture the AFC west division title. Denver faces Cincinnati this weekend then hosts San Diego next. They’ve been struggling as of late and the Chiefs look in a perfect position to host a wildcard game.
- The Houston Texans won their first game in Indianapolis in the teams 13 year history. It’s been a long time coming for the team and they look playoff bound to me. Playing both Tennessee and Jacksonville the next two weeks – they hold their own fate with a one game divisional lead over Indianapolis.
- Washington kept their playoff chances very alive defeating Buffalo 35-25 at home. If you told me to pick a team from the NFC East to win the division at the beginning of the season, my last choice would have been Washington. The Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all looked much better on paper, yet the Redskins have hung around this long. They face Philadelphia this Saturday, in a game that should decide who wins this division.
- Carolina remains undefeated and knocked off the Giants 38-35. Odell Beckham earned himself a one game suspension for his dirty play and the Giants playoff chances are spiralling downwards without him in the lineup. But the more important headline should read Carolina – every team that has started the season 14-0 has gone onto play in the Superbowl.
- Atlanta finally snapped their 6 game losing streak but it’s a little too late. With a 7-7 record they need some serious luck to get into the post-season. Minnesota is the only team remaining yet to clinch a playoff spot and is two games above them at 9-5.
- Seattle reminded everyone how dominate they are and clinched a playoff spot for a 4th straight season. They may not have won the NFC West this season but they’ve been heating up at just the right time. Russell Wilson looks unstoppable and they look poised to make yet another Superbowl run.
- Denver coughed up a 21-point lead in Pittsburgh and the Steelers roared all the way back. The most impressive player in this game was Antonio Brown. He led all receivers with 16 catches for 189 yard and two touchdowns. This guy is an absolute beast and Pittsburgh is quickly giving everyone a reason to be fearful in the AFC.
- Arizona clinched the NFC West this weekend but lost their starting safety Tyrann Mathieu to a torn ACL for the year. This could be a serious blow for the Cardinals in their attempt to make another Super Bowl. He is arguably the most valuable player on the defensive side of the ball for this team.
DALLAS COWBOYS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-6)
The Buffalo Bills (6-8) look to end a two game losing streak when they welcome the Dallas Cowboys (4-10) into Ralph Wilson this weekend. Following last weekends loss the Bills have officially extended their playoff drought to 16 years. The last time this team played a meaningful game in January was 1999 against Tennessee. None the less, I’m sure they’d like to finish their season off on a high note. As for Dallas, they’ve lost two straight themselves and are 1-2 in games against AFC East opponents this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Bills as 6-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 42.5 points expected.
Neither of these teams have played fantastic football this season – but I’m looking for Buffalo to strong arm Dallas this weekend in a game that shouldn’t finish anywhere close. Buffalo has showed glimpses of becoming a potential playoff team this season. Entering this week they are the only team that is outside the post-season picture that posts an average scoring margin higher than zero – and can pride themselves on averaging the most rushing yards per game this season. Their ground game is recording over 148 yards per game this season, and an impressive average of 193 yards the last three games – 30 yards more than the next best. The Cowboys will definitely have their hands full trying to slow this down on Sunday, and you can bet your buttons that if the ground game opens up Tyrod Taylor will be finding Sammy Watkins downfield on play-action. Watkins is averaging 114 yards per game in the last four weeks and has 6 touchdown receptions. He’s playing better than arguably any other player on the team and with Dallas sitting 25th in the league allowing nearly 130 yards per game after the catch to opposing receivers – Watkins should extend his streak to five straight games with touchdowns.
Kellen Moore – the weight of the state of Texas will be on his shoulders this weekend. He’s officially been announced as the starting quarterback for Dallas, and I just don’t see how he will solve their offensive issues. Moore hasn’t started a single game at quarterback since 2011 at Boise State, and when he was called into relief last weekend against New York he threw three interceptions. With Buffalo limiting opponents to an average quarterback rating of 88.1 this season, (13th) and playing only their third home game since October – they should be plenty amped for this one. Plus, we cannot forget Ralph Wilson is one of the toughest stadiums to play in the NFL.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog
- 0-4 against the spread after allowing 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 16
BUFFALO
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss
- 6-3 against the spread in their last 9 games at home
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games following an against the spread loss
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 13 – BILLS 24
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHEIFS (-11)
The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) look to make it nine straight wins when they welcome the Cleveland Browns (3-11) into town this weekend. If the Chiefs can manage to win their final two games of the season and Denver loses one, they could be crowned AFC West champions this season. As for Cleveland, they’ve put together an 8th consecutive losing season, and became the first team eliminated from playoff contention this season. Its hasn’t been easy to be Browns fan the last decade and this Sunday it won’t be much easier – Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as huge 11-point home favourites, with a total set of 42.5 points.
Cleveland might have pulled the toughest road trip of the season. They’re fresh off a shellacking at the hands of the Seahawks in Seattle and now they travel east to take on the Chiefs at home. These are two of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in and both have broken records for crowd noise in the last two seasons. Considering this should become a factor for the Browns on offense, and the Chiefs play as of late – winning by 12-points or more should be a breeze. Kansas City hasn’t lost at home since the beginning of October. Since then they’re 4-0 in Arrowhead, 9-0 overall, and are winning games by an average of 15-points per outing. Repeating that again this weekend should be simplistic. Cleveland is allowing the second most points per game this season (27.8) and have the second worst scoring margin in the league at -9.6. The way Kansas City has been carrying themselves in the second half and the momentum they take into this game – it’s difficult to see Johnny Football keeping the Browns in this game. Cleveland is 0-4 in their last four road games and have lost by 17-points or more in each of those outings.
Despite losing Jamal Charles to injury mid-season the Chiefs have had one of the best running games in the league this season. They enter averaging an impressive 142 yards per game at home (4th) and have scored more rushing touchdowns than any other team this year season with 18. This should be huge red flag for those of you considering placing money on Cleveland this weekend. The Browns allowed 182 yards on the ground against Seattle last weekend and are giving up an average of 134 yards per game this season (31st). If the running lanes open up this weekend then Alex Smith will have plenty of time to find his targets downfield – much like Russell Wilson last weekend. Look for the Chiefs to win big yet again this weekend.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games
- 0-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record this season
KANSAS CITY
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win
- 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games versus Cleveland
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15-points in their last 6 games
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 9 – CHIEFS 34
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9.5) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Baltimore Ravens (4-10) look to earn their first win in four weeks when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) this weekend. Baltimore can take solstice in the fact they already defeated Pittsburgh 23-20 this season, but it’ll take a christmas miracle to duplicate that this weekend. Pittsburgh has been on fire – they’ve won three straight outings and their last two were against play-off bound teams in Denver and Cincinnati. Oddsmakers have listed the Ravens as 9.5-point home underdogs with a total set of 47-points for this divisional matchup.
Much has changed since these two teams met in week four. Baltimore has gone 3-7 since that game, and have lost their starting running back, best wide receiver and Joe Flacco to season ending injuries. As for the Steelers, their season has been nearly a reflection of that – they’ve gone 7-3 in the last ten weeks and have everyone in the league fearing their offensive attack. The Steelers have scored 30 or more points in each of their last 6 games and are one of two teams averaging over 400 yards of total offense per game this year. Not that Baltimore’s defense has been terrible this season, but they just don’t have the necessary depth to shut-down this Steelers attack. Plus we have to consider the revenge factor – Mike Tomlin will be full throttle on embarrassing the Ravens at home. Baltimore has won their last two games against the Steelers, and if history repeats itself Pittsburgh should win big. Since 2003 they’ve won games by an average of 16-points after two or more losses versus the Ravens.
While the Steelers shouldn’t struggle to score points – Baltimore will. Since Flacco when down with injury the Ravens are 1-3 and enter this week averaging a league worst 11-points per game in their last three outings. Without Steve Smith, Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett the Ravens are without a leg to stand on. Nobody can be relied upon in this offense and the Steelers defense should have no troubles staying off the field. They enter week sixteen averaging nearly 3 sacks per game, (4th) and 28 total turnovers (5th). Everything points towards Pittsburgh getting revenge for their week four loss in overtime. Baltimore hasn’t done anything well in the last couple weeks and seemingly make their lives more difficult when playing at home – they’re 30th in the league averaging over 9 penalties per game in M&T Stadium. Steelers win big – Roethlisberger throws for another four touchdowns and Antonio Brown reminds everyone he is the best wide receiver on this planet.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 9-1 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 2-0 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent this season
- 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 7 games versus AFC North opponents
BALTIMORE
- 1-8-2 against the spread in their last 11 games after a straight up loss
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a home underdog
- 3-9-2 against the spread following a straight up loss by 14-points or more
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 38 – RAVENS 16
ST. LOUIS RAMS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-12)
The Seattle Seahawks (9-5) aim to make it six straight wins when they host divisional rivals St. Louis (6-8) this weekend. Seattle has lost only one game dating back to middle of October and will be looking to gain revenge for their week one loss against the Rams this season. As for St. Louis, they’ve won back-to-back games for the second time this season and aim to sweep the season series against the Seahawks for the first time since 2004. Oddsmakers have listed the streaking Seahawks as 12-point home favourites, with a total set of 40.5 points expected between these two.
It can be easily argued that nobody is playing better football than the Seattle Seahawks right now. In the last five weeks they’re 5-0 and have allowed only one opponents to score over 13 points. Its been scary how good their defense has been playing and given the Rams offensive numbers this season – another blowout game should be expected. The Rams enter this game the lowest scoring team in the league on the road (13.7 PPG). They’re one of two offensive teams in the league averaging fewer than 300 total yards of offense per game, and carry a league worst third-down conversion percentage of 25%. Everything points towards the Seahawks running away with this game early on. St. Louis has relied on the legs Todd Gurley to keep the sticks moving this season and Seattle boasters one of the best run defense’s in the league at home. They’re holding teams below 90-yard per game this season and haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown in the last three weeks. With St. Louis creating offense through their ground game and the Seahawks ability to take care of the ball lately – the Rams could get shut out this weekend.
Russell Wilson might not be considered an elite quarterback by some yet, but he’s bidding to change opinions with the stretch of games he’s played. With his performance in week fifteen he became the first quarterback in NFL history to have five straight games with 3 or more touchdown passes, and zero interceptions. It should come as no surprise with numbers like that Seattle is averaging the third most yards of total offense the last three weeks, (427 PG) and over 34 points per game (4th). While St. Louis has shown they’re capable of shutting down teams this season, playing on the road has been troublesome – and playing against Seattle on the road has been their kryptonite. The Rams have lost 10 straight in Seattle by an average of 16-points per game across that same stretch. Hold onto your hats folks – because this game is gonna be a blow-out.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 17-37 against the spread in their last 54 road games versus a team with a winning record
- 0-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record this season
- 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 10.5-points or more
- 0-5 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
SEATTLE
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 home games as a favourite of 10.5-points or greater
- 33-16-1 against the spread in their last 50 games as a home favourite
- 11-1 against the spread in game in December the last three seasons
- 9-0 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the regular season
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 6 – SEAHAWKS 36