It only took five weeks, but my predictions finally broke through. After going 2-2 in each of the first four weeks, I finished 3-0-1 on Sunday. The Patriots, Vikings and Packer all secured victories. While my Raiders prediction finished as a push when they only won by 3-points after allowing a late 4th quarter touchdown to Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Stepping into week six my record now sits at 11-8-1, and I’ve got a feeling this is just the beginning of big things. Before I jump into who I’m favouring this weekend, lets take a look at some important headlines from last weekend.
- Tom Brady made an extremely convincing return. In four quarters against Cleveland he completed 28 of 40 passing attempts for 406 yards and three touchdowns. With Brady back in the lineup you have to believe the Patriots will be huge favourites in nearly every week.
- Detroit handed Philadelphia their first loss of the regular season on Sunday. The Eagles turned the ball over inside their own 50-yard line and all the Lions had to do was nail a field-goal. Carson Wentz had another impressive performance throwing for 238 yards and two scores, but finally threw his first interception of the season. The kid has talent but he will surely be tested in the next three weeks facing Washington, Minnesota and Dallas.
- My impression of Miami is spot on, they are terrible this season. They got thrown around by Tennessee on Sunday losing 30-17, and Ryan Tannehill once again couldn’t get anything going. Give it another two weeks and if Miami cannot turn things around I expect we see a new quarterback and head coach starting for this franchise.
- How about the Minnesota Vikings. Analysts have to start giving credit to this team where credit is due. They knocked off Houston 31-13 and really had this game in the bag after the first quarter. Line up the injuries they are dealing with and at some point we’ve gotta put them near the top in Super Bowl contenders this season. After all, they’re the only team left undefeated entering week six.
- Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman after Baltimore scored only 10-points against a weak Redskins defense on Sunday and fell to 3-2 on the season. The Ravens have one of the best defensive teams in terms of yards per game allowed this season, but their offense has been stale. To be honest I was shocked when they started the year 3-0. As they play both New York teams in the next two weeks it wouldn’t be surprising to see them at 3-4 entering week 8.
- Atlanta knocked off Denver 23-16 on Sunday and confirmed they’re the real deal this year. They never trailed in the game and handed Denver their first loss of the season. So long as they can stay healthy the Falcons are poised to make some noise this year.
- After four dominate years the Cincinnati Bengals are in a world of hurt. It took them four quarters to even score a single point against the Cowboys on Sunday, and the loss 28-14 put them to 2-3 on the year. The major headline from this game is the rookies. Dak Prescott finished yet another outing without an interceptions and Ezekiel Elliot completed his third straight 100-yard game.
- Buffalo handed Los Angeles their first loss at home this season. Their defense had yet another impressive outing and the Bills are quietly rolling into week six winners of three straight games. They faced the 49ers and Dolphins in the next two weeks, then host the Patriots in week eight. Buffalo could easily be 5-2 when that happens if the dominos fall correctly.
- Carolina is in a world of hurt. They fell to 1-4 after losing on Monday Night against Tampa Bay and Cam Newton is once again making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Mark this date down in your calendar, because I’m declaring the Panthers to finish below .500 this season, and miss the playoffs. Riverboat Ron Rivera is going to have a hard time keeping this ship afloat this season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8.5)
The New England Patriots (4-1) are set to host the Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Gillette Stadium this weekend. Cincinnati will aim to win their first game in Foxborough since 2004, when Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a 35-28 victory. While New England will be electric welcoming Tom Brady back for his first home game since suspension, and aim to win back-to-back games against the AFC North division. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots are 8.5-point home favourites with a total set of 47-points for this affair.
Cincinnati has officially lost my confidence. The shellacking they took in Dallas last weekend just solidifies to me how far this team has fallen since last season. The Bengals have had one of the strongest defensive teams in the league the last couple seasons, and it has earned them four straight post-season runs. But this year they look weak and have been exposed by nearly every single opponent. In week one they narrowly avoided defeated against the New York Jets, (23-22) a team we now know is much weaker than originally thought. They suffered defeats in Pittsburgh against the Steelers in week two, and most recently racked up losses against two rookie quarterbacks. Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemien were able to unload 28-points or more against this supposedly stout Bengals defensive team, and my confidence for them cannot be lower as they face Tom Brady this weekend. In both 2013 and 2014 Cincinnati held teams to an average below 20 points per game on the road, as they enter their fourth road game of the season they’re allowing teams to score an average of 25 points this year. The only team Cincinnati has held under 20 points this season is Miami, and we all know how bad they stink. New England has to be licking their chops as they were shut-out in their last appearance at home. To put it into perspective the world of hurt the Cincinnati might find themselves in look no further than this – In 2015 the Bengals were 8-1 in games which they held opponents under 20 points, and 3-4 in games which they allowed over 20. You can bet your dollars Gillette stadium will be rocking this weekend, and unless the Bengals find a way to contain this Patriots offense I don’t see a scenario where they keep this one close.
Blame can equally be placed on Cincinnati’s offense this season. They enter week six scoring an average of 18.4 points per game, a far cry from the 25.6 points they averaged last season. Its no secret the loss of Tyler Eifert would hurt their scoring, but the real issue lies on the offensive line. Only Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannenhill have been sacked more times than Andy Dalton (17) this season. Protection has been a serious issue and the run blocking hasn’t been any better. They currently sit 28th in the league averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Unless they solve the major problems on offense this week the Bengals are going to get destroyed. New England is off to their best defensive start in years, they’re currently holding opponents to an average of 14.8 points per game, 4th in the league. As for the offense, we all know what they’re capable of. Just consider this when you’re thinking about betting on Cincinnati this weekend – Tom Brady is 97-15 at home as the starter in his career, the best win percentage by any quarterback who has made at least 50 starts since 1960. Don’t be stupid, put your money on the Patriots this weekend to win big.
TRENDS
CINCINNATTI
- 59-77 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points since 1992
- 1-3 against the spread this season
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games in week 6
NEW ENGLAND
- 20-8-2 against the spread in their last 30 home games
- 6-1-1 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 37-16-3 against the spread in their last 56 games in October
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 16 – PATRIOTS 31
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7) VS MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Miami Dolphins (1-4) need to clean up their act this weekend as they welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) into town. Miami has lost three straight games, and if it wasn’t for a missed field goal they could easily be 0-5 on the year. As for Pittsburgh they’ve already found their stride, they’ve won three straight and most recently knocked off AFC East rivals New York last weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Steeler as 7-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 47-points.
Steelers by 7-points? I’d take them if the line was set at 14-points. Miami has been embarrassing this season, expect Pittsburgh to have their way again this weekend. Several teams in this league succeed because they have a superstar quarterback and an average offensive line, or average quarterback and superstar offensive line. Well, Miami has neither of those things. They’ve got thee worst offensive line and quarterback combination in the league this year. Entering week six the Dolphins offensive line has allowed Ryan Tannenhill to get sacked a total of 17 times (2nd most) and hit 39 times (2nd most). When Tannenhill isn’t found lying on his back he’s been busy throwing the ball to the other team. In five starts he’s already got 7 interceptions and 4 fumbles (2 lost). It’s been an absolute mess on offense this season for Miami and I’m honestly shocked they haven’t changed direction yet. Tennessee made Miami look like garbage last weekend; I can’t wait to see what Pittsburgh is capable of. The Steelers are not the best defensive team in football but they’re holding opponents to an average of 18.6 points per game (9th) this season and have allowed teams to convert only 41.18% inside the redzone (4th). More importantly Pittsburgh has an offense that can consolidate a lead and force opposing teams into a pass happy offense. Miami doesn’t have a chance this weekend unless they become clock managing experts and begin converting third down opportunities. The extra rest from playing last on Thursday night in week five has to help, but this team is still extremely outmatched against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh has scored over 30 points in three of five game this season. They’re entering this game averaging 27.8 points per game (6th) and scoring more touchdowns than nearly every other team in the league at 3.6 per game (2nd). Its no surprise with these numbers that Big Ben has been on fire. He’s thrown for 680 yards and 9 touchdowns in his last two games and that was against defensive teams that are statistically way better than the Dolphins this season. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Steelers score 40 points in this game. Le’Veon Bell has a couple healthy games under his belt and this offense is on a roll. Miami might as well put “welcome Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the endzone this weekend, because these guys will be spending a lot of time there this weekend. Expect the Steelers to improve to 5-1 this weekend and route a terrible Miami team.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 7-2 against the spread after scoring 30-points or more in their previous game
- 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in October
- 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win by more than 14-points
- 65-39 against the spread in weeks 5-9 since 1992
MIAMI
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up loss
- 6-20 against the spread in their last 26 games overall
- 9-19 against the spread versus conference opponents the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 40 – DOLPHINS 17
ATLANTA FALCONS (+7) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seattle Seahawks (3-1) welcome the red-hot Atlanta Falcons (4-1) into CenturyLink Field this weekend. Seattle is fresh off their bye week and should be prepared for this matchup. The last time these two teams met was in 2013 in the Georgia Dome where the Seahawks knocked off the Falcons 33-10. Much had changed since then and Atlanta will be looking for their first victory against Seattle since the 2012 divisional playoff round. Oddsmakers have listed the rested Seahawks as 7-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 45.5 points per game.
Seattle has had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, but its still mind boggling to me they are 7-point favourites. Russell Wilson has only thrown 5 touchdown passes all season, and the Seahawks have yet to face a quality opponent. Their three victories this season come at the hands of Miami, New York and San Francisco. Three teams that combine for a 3-12 record. Atlanta will be the first real test they’ve faced all season and I’m not convinced they can compete. The Falcons enter this game on a four game win streak and most recently knocked off the SuperBowl champion Denver Broncos at home. Matt Ryan is making a case for MVP this season and I don’t care how good the Seahawks defense has been in the past seasons, they’ll be hard pressed to contain this offense. Atlanta enters this matchup scoring 35-points per game (1st) and have one of the more balanced offensive teams in the league. They’re averaging over 125 yards rushing, and 330 passing yards per game. They have 26 passing plays over 20 yards this season, and 10 plays for over 40 yards. Seattle has become the Legion of Boom but statistics say they’ve struggled to contain the deep ball this year. Through four games they’ve given up three passing plays of 40 yards or more, and haven’t yet faced a tandem like Julio and Matt Ryan. Seattle’s defensive numbers are vastly inflated due to their easy schedule to begin this season, and Atlanta will show the true colours of the Seahawks secondary this season.
Atlanta might not win this game, but I assure you they will not lose by a touchdown. Seattle’s offense is 21st in the league entering this weekend scoring an average of 19.8 points per game this season. When you consider the four opponents they’ve faced, this is embarrassing. Miami, New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles all gave up 30 or more points in week five. Atlanta might not have the best defensive scheme in the league but they’ve got a talented enough defensive line to pressure Russell Wilson; while it shouldn’t be ignored that their secondary sits tied for 8th in the league with 5 interceptions this season. Seattle has lived off the ground-and-pound style of offense the last couple seasons and that is quickly being tested now that Marshawn Lynch is retired. The Seahawks are 30th in the league averaging 3.3 yards per carry and have only two rushing touchdowns all season (tied for 25th). Unless Seattle can hold the Falcons under 25 points, I’ve got a hard time picturing them winning this game. I’ll be placing my green on Atlanta to easily cover this spread this weekend, you should strongly consider doing the same.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning home record
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a road underdog
SEATTLE
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win
- 8-19 against the spread when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 27 – SEAHAWKS 24
DALLAS COWBOYS (+4.5) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Dallas Cowboys (4-1) travel north this weekend to take on the Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has won five straight matchup’s against the Cowboys dating back to 2009. They’ll be looking to add to that total this week, and aim to win a second straight game against an NFC East opponent. As for the Cowboys they’ve won four straight games and look to improve to 2-0 versus NFC North opponents this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 4.5-point home favourites for this Sunday evening matchup, with the over/under set at 47.5.
Dallas has been red hot since week two, they’ve won by an average of 13-points in their last four games. When you consider they’ve accomplished this with a rookie quarterback AND rookie running back, this is impressive. Dak Prescott still has yet to throw an interception and Ezekiel Elliot is quietly leading the league in rushing yards. These two guys have been absolute studs to start the season and all their success goes back to one foundation, the Cowboys have the best offensive line in the league. Prescott has been sacked only 7 times (2nd fewest) and hit 19 times when he steps back to throw the ball this season. While Ezekiel Elliot has had gaping holes to run through and his average of 137 rushing yards per game in the last three weeks exemplify that. These two guys have been key to the Cowboys success this season, and Green Bay will have to find a way to penetrate the best offensive line in the league to win this game.
Entering week six the Packers are 1st in the league giving up only 2-yards per carry to opposing running backs and an average of 42.8 total rushing yards per game. Those are some fantastic numbers against the run this season, but the four teams they’ve faced might be inflating those numbers. The Packers have played the Lions, Vikings, Jaguars and Giants this year. All four of those teams sit in the bottom ten teams in the league in rushing yards per game, and average less than 90 yards rushing per game. With Dallas coming into this week earning an average of 155.2 yards per game on the ground, (1st) it should show whether the Packers are actually this good against the run, or if they have just faced a handful of poor running teams this season.
Time of possession will be the key statistic to watch in this game. Aaron Rodgers has more talent than 90% of the quarterbacks in this league, but if he is on the sideline that doesn’t help. Entering this weekend Dallas has been a time of possession beast. They are averaging 34 minutes time of possession per game (2nd) and allowing their defense to get plenty of rest. If the Packers want to win their third straight they’ll have to keep the Cowboys offense off the field and solve a their defense that is holding teams to an average of 18.2 points per game (8th). Its always difficult to bet against the Packers at Lambeau, but this Cowboys offense is on a roll and should find a way to keep this game close until the clock hits 0. Smart money says Dallas covers this spread.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 road games
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning home record
GREEN BAY
- 5-4 against the spread in weeks 5-9 the last three seasons
- 27-28 against the spread versus NFC East opponents since 1992