During week five both the Thursday night matchup and Monday night matchup saw the underdog cover the spread. But outside of the primetime affairs only two other underdogs were able to win all weekend. While all home teams finished a combined 4-8, with the road teams getting the better of home crowds. Looking back at my week five predictions I finished a combined 2-1-1. Both Denver and Green Bay carried on their undefeated seasons, Cincinnati had to battle back from 17-points down in the forth quarter to garner a push in overtime. While the Kansas City chiefs game and possibly their season blew up when Jamal Charles went down with yet another knee injury in the third quarter. Entering week six my overall record now sits at 11-8-1 on the season, and 7-3 in games which I assign a loot value of .750 or higher. Here’s a little recap of last week before I dive into who I’m favouring this weekend.
- Who needs Andrew Luck? Apparently not the Colts. Matt Hassleback could turn into dust at any second but he has lead the Colts to a 2-0 record under his reigns.
- Buffalo had a thrilling comeback victory in Tennessee. After generating nearly zero offense in the first three quarters Tyrod Taylor put the team on his back and arguably won this game single handed.
- Josh McCowen threw for 458 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens secondary. Now’s the time for Baltimore fans to panic. Cleveland quarterbacks never finish first overall in passing yards in a given week.
- Jay Cutler for MVP? Bears fans might be saying this after his second come-back victory. But lets not get to excited over this. Kansas City doesn’t look like a team worthy of bragging about beating this season.
- Cincinnati improved to 5-0 for their first time in franchise history. Its about time everyone started believing this is one of the best teams in the league. Andy Dalton has the fire in his eyes this season (cue funny ginger joke)
- Chip Kelly and the Eagles scored 39-points against the Saints! Eagles fans everywhere are already jumping to conclusions. I’m not convinced they are where they should be, but they’re getting better.
- Can anyone beat the Patriots? New England smashed Dallas 30-6 and improved to 4-0 while sending every Cowboys fan into pandemonium. This team needs Tony Romo and Dez Bryant back immediately.
DENVER BRONCOS (-4) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Cleveland Browns (2-3) return home this weekend to host the Denver Broncos (5-0) at Paul Brown Stadium. This is the first time since 2008 that Cleveland has hosted the Broncos at home and they are surely looking to improve upon the 30-34 loss last time they played. As for Denver, they are looking to remain undefeated on the season and extend their AFC West division lead to 3 games. Oddsmakers have listed Denver as 4-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 42-points.
Cleveland has the same or better record than half the teams in the AFC entering this weekend. They have definitely surprised some people this season but at this point in the season true colours are beginning to show. We have seen enough play out of teams to have an idea where they sit going forward, and while the Browns season is still optimistic their defensive play has been downright terrible. Entering this weekend they are 30th in the league giving up over 400 totals yards of offense per game. Only San Francisco and New Orleans are giving up more yards per game this season and those two combine for a total of 2 wins this season. If Cleveland doesn’t run a tight ship this weekend at home against Denver the likelihood of them getting clobbered is great.
Two years ago all anyone wanted to talk about was how deadly the Broncos offense was. Flash-forward to the present and analysts everywhere are drooling over how good their defensive play has been. The Broncos haven’t just been better than other defensive teams this season, they have been leaps and bounds ahead. Through five weeks the Broncos are 1st in total yards allowed per game (278), 1st in opponent third down conversion percentage (29.69%) and are tied for 1st giving up only 5.3 yards per opponent passing attempt. This only begins to scratch the surface on how dominate they have been. They also lead the league in turnovers with 14, and sacks per game at nearly 5 per outing. The Browns are going to have to be perfect if they have any hopes of keeping this game within 4-points.
The Browns have thrived off solid offensive play this season and I know one thing for sure – if their offense doesn’t catch fire early, then they will lose this game. Defense has been a serious liability on the Browns all season. In their last three games they have given up an average of 29 points per game and find themselves one of the worst coverage teams in the red-zone. Though five weeks they are allowing teams to score a league worst 3 red-zone touchdowns per game. If their defense continues to struggle this weekend then this game could turn into their biggest loss all season.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 5-1 in their last 6 games against Cleveland
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road favourite
- 21-8 against the spread in their last 29 games against a team with a losing record
- 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
CLEVELAND
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win
- 1-5 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 1-3 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 775
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 26 – BROWNS 10
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) and Houston Texans (1-4) square off for the first time this season this weekend. Jacksonville is aiming to end a three game skid while the Texans should look plenty fresh in this matchup getting nearly 10 days of rest. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Jaguars as 1-point home favourites for this divisional game, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Jacksonville? Yes, Jacksonville is going to beat Houston this weekend. Both teams have a poor record this season but the Jaguars have been far more impressive. Blake Bortles has more passing yards than some of the top rated quarterbacks in the league this season. Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers all have fewer passing yards than Bortles through five weeks. He’s not even close to the calibre of these Superbowl winning play callers, but he has shown the attributes to be a successful quarterback in the NFL. He is tied for 5th in the league with 10 touchdown passes already this year, and has Jacksonville the 6th ranked offense averaging 11.5 yards per passing attempt. With Houston struggling against opposing quarterbacks this season Bortles could have a break out performance.
The Texans enter week six allowing nearly 8-points more per game this season than they were last. Their defense has struggled to manage opposing quarterbacks and nobody could have seen this one coming. J.J Watt has been an MVP calibre defensive linemen the last two seasons and Jadeveon Clowney is finally healthy. Nobody would have expected the Texans to regress defensively this season. Yet, through five weeks Houston sits 29th in the league with only 6 total sacks, and Clowney could sit out this week with a sprained ankle. Jacksonville might have lost both games against Houston last season but you can bet your bucks they will battle this weekend. It’s only been a year removed since Jacksonville went 2-0 against Houston in the regular season. Texans fans beware, this game has Jaguars victory written all over it.
TREND
HOUSTON
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 6
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in October
- 0-4 against the spread as a road underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 4-10 against the spread in the last 3 seasons when the line is between +3 and -3
JACKSONVILLE
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as a favourite
- 7-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 675
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 17 – JAGUARS 20
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5)
The Miami Dolphins (1-3) look to turn their season around when they play the Tennessee Titans (1-3) this weekend. After winning their first game of the season Miami has since gone 0-3 and find themselves in the dog-house of a tough AFC East division. As for Tennessee, they have not been much better this season. But they have defeated the Dolphins the last two times these two have met in Nashville. Oddsmakers have listed Tennessee as 1.5-point home favourites for this Sunday afternoon matchup, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Neither of these teams have had starts that are bragging worthy. But indicators point towards Tennessee being the stronger of the two and them knocking off the Dolphins this weekend. Entering week six Miami is coming off their bye. But they also have a new head-coach and two weeks time is very short to get accustomed to a new coaching style. Just look at it this way – Miami is the 26th team since 2000 to fire their coach mid-season and not a single one of those other 25 teams went on to make the playoffs that same season.
Remember how pre-season predictions had the Dolphins as one of the best all-around defensive teams in the league? Through four games this squad is 29th in the league allowing nearly 400 total yards per game. They have been awful in comparison to where they should be and lets just talk about Ndamukong Suh for a minute. This cat was one of the best defensive lineman in the league the last couple seasons. At this point he has zero sacks and only ten total tackles. Looks like the 100-million dollar man is doing his best Albert Haynesworth impression.
Okay, thats enough ragging on the Dolphins. Here’s why I see Tennessee winning this weekend – Entering week six Marcus Mariota has exceeded expectations. He has only one more touchdown than Jameis Winston but has four fewer interceptions and has an average quarterback rating of 99. Not to mention he is also is averaging 7.2 yards per rushing attempt (2nd best in the league for quarterbacks) Expect to see a heavy dose of this kid this weekend and the rest of their back-field. Miami is the worst team in the league against the run allowing over 160 yards per game.
Tennessee has been sneakily good this season in several important categories. They are currently 3rd in the league defensively allowing an average 283 yards per game. This is much to accredit of their secondary. Their passing defense has been top notch this year giving up only 166 yards per game – best in the entire league. This could be the matchup to follow as this game progresses. Miami has had troubles running the ball this season, they’ve attempted only 67 total rushes this year. Which works out to about 16 attempts for game, fewest in the league by a landslide. Look to go big on Tennessee this weekend. They suffered a tough forth-quarter loss against the Bills last weekend and should bounce back.
TRENDS
MIAMI
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
- 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games versus the AFC
- 3-8 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
- 0-5 against the spread after allowing 150 yards rushing or more in their previous game
TENNESSEE
- 3-1 against the spread in their last four at home against Miami
- 8-1 when below .500 favourites versus a team of a divisional game between weeks 5-8
- 5-1 versus opponents with rest
LOOT VALUE – 650
FINAL SCORE – DOLPHINS 13 – TITANS 21
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+7.5) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seattle Seahawks (2-3) look to bounce back this weekend when they welcome the Carolina Panthers (4-0) into CenturyLinkField. It’s no doubt the Seahawks are still reeling from a 17-point forth quarter collapse in Cincinnati last weekend. While the Panthers should be well rested coming off their bye week. Oddsmakers have listed Seattle as 7.5-point home favourites for this match-up, with a total set of 40.5 points.
Seattle is officially off to their worst start of the Russell Wilson era. Personally, this team doesn’t feel like the same one that has competed for back-to-back SuperBowl Championships. I’m actually blown away that Vegas is favouring them as huge 7.5-point favourites over an UNDEFEATED Carolina Panthers team. There is history between these two franchises. Seattle defeated them 31-17 last year in the playoffs but in their previous three outings were decided by 5-points or less in every game. These teams are no strangers and always play each other tough – 7 points just seems like to much for a Seahawks team that could be without Marshawn Lynch again.
These teams are a spitting image of one another. Both rely heavily on their defense to carry them through games, and a solid run-game to control the clock. But something’s gotta give here and I’m giving my marbles to the Panthers. Their rushing defense has been slightly better this season and Seattle’s offensive line a mess. Through five weeks the Seahawks have allowed Wilson to get sacked a league worst 22 times, and have scored only one rushing touchdown. That one rushing touchdown puts them 30th overall in the league in that category. Only Jacksonville and Miami have been worse running the ball with not a single rushing touchdown on the season.
If running the ball becomes a problem for Seattle this weekend airing it out might not solve problems. Carolina is allowing an average of 1 passing touchdown per game (5th overall) and have been picking off quarterbacks frequently with 8 interceptions. If they can pressure Wilson this weekend and keep him within the pocket then a straight up victory for the Panthers shouldn’t be outside the box.
After losing Kelvin Benjamin in pre-season people thought the Panthers offense would be atrocious (myself included). Yet entering week six they are 6th in the league averaging 27-points per game. The loss of Benjamin surely hurts their passing attack but who cares when they’re gaining 132 rushing yards per game? Seattle could challenge them in that category, but unless they forced multiple turnovers I expect this game to end within a touchdown. Look to this game end anywhere within the 3-
CAROLINA
- 75-42 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record since 1992
- 5-2 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 9-1 against the spread with conference revenge
SEATTLE
- 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games in week 6
- 0-4 against the spread after allowing 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games overall
- 2-7 against the spread in games during October the last three seasons