Those who decided to gamble on my holiday predictions last were rewarded. I finished 3-1 on the weekend, bringing my overall record up to 34-26-2 on the season. My winning picks included Atlanta, Green Bay and Kansas City. Each of these teams easily covered their respective spreads and won by double digit scores. My sole losing prediction was the Chargers defeating the Browns by 6-points. Moving forward it will take is a perfect 4-0 week seventeen and I’ll be able to eclipse 40 total wins this season. Either way, I’m elated to be batting 56% this season after last years struggles. With only one week remaining, here is a look at some important headlines as we travel towards Super Bowl 51.
- Cleveland won a game! The Browns won a game! Can’t say I expected this one. But that should be clear as I predicted the Chargers to cover a 6-point spread on Sunday. Based on the way fans in the stand were celebrating after Josh Lambo missed the game tying field goal, you would have thought this team won the Super Bowl. It is definitely rewarding to know that this team will not get their name etched into the record books for all the wrong reasons. But let me just remind Browns fans one thing, you’ve got a long long way to go before Cleveland becomes relevant again.
- I was certain the Titans were playoff bound this season. But their loss in Jacksonville combined with a Houston win on Saturday officially eliminated them from contention. Definitely a disappointing way to end the year for Tennessee fans. Put it in your calendar, the Texans are back-to-back AFC South champions for the second time ever.
- Miami earned a playoff spot for the first time since 2008 with a win on Sunday and a Denver loss. This has to be the best christmas gift ever to starved Dolphins fans. After a miserable 1-4 start, they impressively have won 9 of their last 10 games. Miami is certainly becoming a team nobody wishes to face in January.
- The AFC Playoff picture has been decided, but the seeding could still very much change. The Patriots are the #1 seed, with Oakland holding the #2. If the playoffs started today they would both earn a first round bye. Rounding out #3 is Pittsburgh who will almost certainly face Miami in the #6 seed. While Houston and Kansas City sit at the #4 and #5 seeds. Each of these match-ups are practically etched in stone, the only change that can take place is Oakland switching seeding with Kansas City or New England. If Kansas City defeats San Diego and Oakland loses to Denver this weekend, then the Chiefs would earn the #2 seed and a first round bye. Which then leaves the Raiders to host Houston. If the Raiders win and the Patriots lose then Oakland would earn the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the conference championships.
- The NFC Playoff picture is far from locked in, but some teams are firm in their positioning. With a win on Monday Dallas cemented themselves as the #1 seed in the conference. But from their on down things can quickly change following this weekend. Atlanta is currently #2, (10-5) Seattle is #3, (9-5-1) Green Bay #4, (9-6) New York Giants #5 (10-5) and Detroit #6 (9-6). Sitting on the outside looking in are Washington at 8-7-1, and at Tampa Bay 8-7. Washington would sneak into the playoffs with a win versus the Giants and a loss by either Detroit or Green Bay on Sunday (almost certain to happen as these two teams face off in week seventeen). As for Tampa Bay, things get a little more complicated. Firstly, they must defeat the Panthers, then the Packers must lose and the Giants and Redskins must tie. That would bring them into a tie with Green Bay, but they would still lose in a strength of schedule matchup. To win that strength of schedule against the Packers the Buccaneers would need the 49ers to beat the Seahawks, Colts to beat the Jaguars, Cowboys to beat the Eagles, and the Titans to beat the Texans this weekend. Maybe in some parallel universe this occurs, but not this weekend. I’m gonna go ahead and cross Tampa Bay off the list, this team will not earn a post-season birth and will have to wait another year before returning to post-season glory.
- It is official. Neither team from Super Bowl 50 will even earn a playoff spot this season. Carolina and Denver were both officially eliminated. After a poor start it was almost certain through 8 weeks that Carolina was bound to miss the playoffs, but Denver missing out is incredibly disappointing. I predicted three weeks ago this would happen, now I’m hopeful this caused Von Miller to slip down the list in the defensive MVP discussion. I declared pre-season that Kahlil Mack would defensive MVP, and he is now firmly in the mix. These two face off this weekend, and whomever puts up a better performance could easily be decided the winner.
- Oakland lost Derek Carr to a broken Fibula on Saturday. This crushes the Raiders playoff chances. I’m not sure who their backup is, but this team does not have a strong enough defense to rely upon them alone. Their run game is not nearly effective enough to withstand this loss. Heartbreaking for Raiders fans.
BUFFALO BILLS (-3) NEW YORK JETS
The Buffalo Bills (7-8) and New York Jets (4-11) meet for the second time this season in week seventeen. Earlier this season the Jets travelled to Buffalo and defeated the Bills 37-31. Since then they have gone 3-10 and you can sense major changes are coming. As for Buffalo, a 7-8 record puts them outside the playoffs for a record 17th straight season. No team has suffered a longer post-season drought than the Bills in the last two decades, not even the Cleveland Browns. Yet entering this game oddsmakers have listed the Bills are 3-point road favourites, with a total set of 44 points.
One of these teams is much better than the other, and it’s not the Jets. After a 10-6 record last year, to say 2016 has been disappointing would be an understatement for New York. This team had playoff aspirations as they entered the year and have fallen well short of those goals. The four victories the Jets earned this season have come against Baltimore, San Francisco, Cleveland and this same Buffalo Bills team. When comparing these four victories one major similarity that stands out – the offense showed up. In these four wins they averaged nearly 29 points per game, and were able to score 23 points or more in every single outing. When you compare that to their losing games, it is a tale of two teams. In eleven losses this year the offensive scored over 20 points only twice, and were held to an average of 11-points per game. Nobody in this league could be above .500 if their offense was capable of scoring only 11-points per game.
The quarterback carousel will continue this weekend for New York. Bryce Petty was placed on injured reserve last week which leaves the door open for either rookie Christian Hackenberg or a familiar face in Ryan Fitzpatrick this weekend. For betting purposes, I don’t care who starts in this game, they will both be running for their lives come kickoff. Buffalo has struggled in several defensive categories this season but one has held steady, their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Entering this weekend they are 5th in league with 38 sacks. This should prove to be a very important area to watch in this game. If the Bills can penetrate the Jets offensive line then the pressure could easily transition into defensive turnovers. At 34, the Jets offense has turned the ball over more than any other team in the league this year.
Rex Ryan and Rob Ryan have been officially ousted. I consider this a mistake, but either way it is going to shake up the Bills locker room and motivate this team to come out and wipe the floor with New York on Sunday. Buffalo relies heavily on their ground game to open the playbook and LeSean McCoy leads that charge. McCoy is having one of his best seasons in years. He is already well over 1000 yards rushing this season, has ran for 100 yards or more in four of his last five games, and has 6 touchdowns. With the defensive struggles that New York has had this season, the door is wide open to the Bills offense. If they can establish a strong ground game then play action should allow Sammy Watkins to scorch “Revis Island” one last time this year. Look for Buffalo to get revenge and win big.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games after accumulating 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
- 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games on field turf
- 6-0 against the spread in the last three seasons in games played on field turf
- 4-1 against the spread versus the Jets in the last three seasons
NEW YORK
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home versus a team with a losing road record
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 30 – JETS 17
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+6)
The San Diego Chargers (5-10) host division rivals Kansas City (11-4) at Qualcomm Stadium this weekend. The Chargers have had an extremely disappointing season and will officially miss the playoffs for a third straight year. As for Kansas City, they’ll be playing in January for back-to-back seasons and could secure home field advantage until the AFC conference championship with a win and a Raiders loss this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 6-point road favourites, with a total set of 44.5 points for this game.
Philip Rivers can no longer don the nickname “Mr. December”. San Diego has lost four straight games, and have yet to win in the month of the December. Rivers was “Mr. December” because before the 2015 season he led the Chargers to a 35-13 record in January and December after taking over as the starting quarterback in 2006. But since last year, Rivers and the Chargers are 0-8 in the month of December. They have not won a single game in the final quarter of the year since the 2014 season. This losing streak has to come to an end eventually and I think that could be this weekend. I’ll admit that Kansas City is a great team, but these divisional rivals have a rich history and divisional games more often then not end close.
In the last three weeks the Chargers offense has stunk it up. They have not scored more than 17-points in a single game since week thirteen. To put into context just how bad this stretch has been consider this – before week thirteen the Chargers had been held under 20-point only once all season long. Injuries have disabled their ability to score points, but I’m expecting them to pull it together this weekend. This is the final game these guys will play together this year, and that has to mean something. They have lost 5 straight games against the Chiefs and would love nothing more than to play upset this weekend. Rivers is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and with the speculation around the Chargers transferring, this game has added meaning. I’m looking for an emotional game out of the Chargers and for them to keep this game closer than 6-points.
Turnovers will play an extremely large part in this game. Entering this game only the Jets have turned the ball over more times than the Chargers this season (34).If they could scratch even half those turnovers off the board, this would have been a completely different season for San Diego. I say this because their defense has been one of the best at forcing turnovers. They enter week seventeen leading the league with 17 interceptions this year, and are 4th overall with 27 total turnovers. If this defense can manage to force one or two this weekend, while the offense takes care of the football, then we should have ourselves a football game for a full 60 minutes on Sunday.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 2-5 against the spread on the road versus a team with a losing record
- 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games following an against the spread win
SAN DIEGO
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games versus divisional opponents
- 3-1 against the spread revenging a loss against opponents this season
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 23 – CHARGERS 25
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-6.5)
The New Orleans Saints (7-8) and Atlanta Falcons (10-5) meet for the second time this season this weekend. New Orleans will be looking to play upset this weekend as their playoff hopes have already been slashed. It’ll be revenge the Saints are looking for, after the 45-32 beatdown that the Falcons handed them earlier this season in the SuperDome. As for Atlanta, they’ve won three straight and find themselves back in the post-season for the first time in four years. Oddsmakers have listed the Falcons as 6.5-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 56.5 points expected.
It is about time we started recognizing the Falcons offense for what it truly is, one of the best scoring teams in NFL history. At 33.5 points per game they are averaging 4-points more per game than the next best offensive team this year. They have already eclipsed 500 total points scored this season, which places them 15th most all-time. If they manage to score more than 16-points this weekend they would be cemented inside the top 10 highest scoring teams of all time. This offense has been demolishing the opposition, just consider the last three weeks. They have been outscoring opponents by an average of 24-points per game, 24-points! That itself is hard to fathom. When you combine this with the fact they suffered a loss against Seattle 24-26 in which they should have won, and the heartbreaking defeat 28-29 versus Kansas City only a few weeks back – this team could easily be 12-3. We need to start giving this offense the respect they deserve.
Atlanta holds their playoff destiny in their own hands. If they win this game they will earn a first round bye, and will get a week of much needed rest before hosting a playoff game. If they lose and the Seahawks win then Atlanta will host Washington in the WildCard round (assuming Washington wins at home this weekend versus the Giants). This game has massive implications because that extra week of rest has proved extremely critical in the last couple seasons. Since 2013 teams that have earned a first round bye have gone on to a 13-3 record in the divisional round of the playoffs. This game basically decides whether the Falcons would host the Seahawks in the divisional round, or if the Seahawks would host the Falcons (assuming they both won in the WildCard round). This is a must win game for the Falcons, nobody ever wants to play the Seahawks in CenturyLink.
These teams are both very similar when discussing their ability to score, but anaylzing them defensively is the difference and could decide who wins this game. New Orleans has been able to score points all season long; it has been their defensive play that has been the achilles. They enter the final game of the season allowing 27.7 points per game, (30th) and a third down conversion percentage of 42.62% (27th). Teams have moved up and down the field on this defense all year, and the same thing should certainly happen this weekend as they take on the #1 scoring offense in their home stadium. If you flip the script, we’ve got a completely different picture. Atlanta has been playing incredible defensively in the last couple weeks. Since week fourteen they have held opponents to an average of 14.3-points per game (4th across this span) and have one of the best passing rushing defensive ends in the league this season. Vic Beasley is looking to finish 2016 as the league leader in sacks. He currently has 14.5 sacks, one more than Von Miller. I’m expecting this to be another one sided performance with Atlanta possessing a strong lead in this game by half-time.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 0-3 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games in week 17
- 1-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this year
ATLANTA
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favourite
- 5-0 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 27 – FALCONS 40
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) VS DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions (9-6) and Green Bay Packers (9-6) square off this weekend in a game with huge implications. The winner of this divisional matchup will win the NFC North title and make the playoffs. While the loser will likely be finished for the 2016 season. The only way in which both these teams advance into the wildcard round is if the Washington Redskins lose on Sunday, or this game ends in a tie. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 2.5-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 49.5 points.
Detroit has drawn the short straw when it comes to their scheduling to finish the 2016 season. They have played two of the best teams in the NFC on the road the last two weeks, and now return home to face the hottest team in the NFL the last month. Did I mention they will also be playing on a shortened week of rest? The Lions lost on Monday night in Dallas and now share identical records with the Packers. Which makes this game a winner takes all. I’ve been riding the Packers for the last five weeks, I’m gonna continue that streak this weekend and take Green Bay to cap off what looked like a very promising year for the Lions.
Green Bay has been steam rolling nearly every team in their path the last five weeks. I could ramble for hours about their how great Aaron Rodgers is, or how deep the receiving corps is, but we’ve all heard this before. The Packers are more terrifying than nearly every other offensive team in this league when they are clicking. The shear motivation and wave of belief this franchise is riding into this game should be concerning. Five weeks ago when they sat at 4-7, myself and nearly every other person on this planet counted them down and out. Yet here we are entering the final week of the season and they control their own fate. As for Detroit, I haven’t been convinced for one second all season long that they are as nearly as good as their record, and the fact Mathew Stafford is dealing with a injured throwing hand has to account for something. Since the injury the Lions are 0-2 and Stafford hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass. Before the injury Stafford had thrown at least one touchdown pass in 11 of 13 games this season. This is by no means a coincidence, Stafford has placed this team on his back all season long and as far as I’m concerned they are lucky to even have the chance to flush it down the toilet this weekend.
The proximity in this game will depend solely on the Lions defense. They will need to stop the Packers offense and keep their offense on the field as long as possible in this game. The boxscore between these two teams in week three finished 34-27 Packers, but it was nowhere remotely close. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the first half and led Green Bay to a 31-10 half-time lead. Detroit was out of this game after the first quarter. I’m not expecting the same thing to happen this weekend, but it cannot be comforting for Detroit to return home after allowing 41-points on Monday night, and have to turn around on short week of preparation and face this lethal Packers offense. I’m gonna ride with the hall of fame quarterback. Green Bay wins the NFC North for the 5th time in the last 6 seasons.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 23-11 against the spread in their last 34 games versus divisional opponents
- 14-2 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
LIONS
- 1-2 against the spread revenging a loss against an opponent this season
- 6-19-1 against the spread in the last 26 games after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
- 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 divisional games