We’ve completed the stretch and officially stare down the barrel of week seventeen of the regular season. With sixteen weeks of football finished, only one week stands between teams hanging up their jerseys until August – and others trying to live out their dreams of winning Super Bowl Fifty. After a perfect week of predictions in week fifteen I’ve completed full circle. Week sixteen saw my picks finish a combined 1-3, bringing my record to 28-31-2 on the year. Its going to take a perfect week seventeen for me to finish above .500 for the fourth consecutive season – lets be is optimistic. It’s been a roller coaster of a regular season in 2015 and I’m looking for the post-season to be much more generous to the bankroll. But before jumping ahead into who I like to close out the season – here’s a little recap of last weekends action.
- Washington defeated Philadelphia on Saturday night and stamped their ticket to the wildcard round as NFC East champions. After RG III got benched at the beginning of the season few could have seen this coming. Entering the Wildcard round they’ll host the loser of the Green Bay/Minnesota game this weekend.
- Chip Kelly has been fired. This was announced late Tuesday afternoon and honestly should come as no surprise. Players inclined he lost the locker room a long time ago, and after shipping Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and Jermey Maclin to other teams in the off-season – the Eagles were all-in on the Chip Kelly approach only to have it fail miserably. However, this might not be the last we see of him. There’s already talk he could be reunited with Mariota in Tennessee.
- New York held on to defeat the Patriots in overtime. Bill Belichick made the bone-head move to give the ball to the Jets first in overtime and they went all the way down the field to score the game deciding touchdown. But really – was this a calculated decision? With the Jets winning that game it gives the Pittsburgh Steelers nothing but a sliver of hope to make the post-season. I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather be facing the Jets than the Steelers come January. It has become an offensive driven league in the last couple seasons and Pittsburgh clearly has the better of the two between these teams.
- A last the Panthers undefeated streak came to an end. Division rivals Atlanta held them to only 14-points and handed them their first regular season loss dating back to November 2014. I’m looking at this as an omen for this team. The news tabloids and analysts will get off their back about completing the undefeated season and losing now instead of in two weeks is the much better of two options. The only downside to the loss is the #1 seed in the NFC is still up for grabs.
- About that #1 seed. Arizona spanked Green Bay 38-8 on Sunday night and everyone couldn’t help but take notice. The scenario for the number one seed is simply – Panthers win against the Buccaneers this weekend and they’re in as the first overall team in the NFC. But if they lose and the Cardinals defeat the Seahawks then Arizona would clinch home field throughout the post-season.
- Speaking of Seattle – they lost to St. Louis 23-17 this past weekend. This not only marked the first game of Russell Wilson’s career that he failed to hold onto the lead at least once, it was the first time in over ten seasons that the Rams swept the divisional season series. Both big accomplishments for a team that might not even be in St. Louis come next season.
- Talking about season sweeps – Baltimore beat Pittsburgh in both games this season including an extremely important game this past weekend for the Steelers. With the loss the Steelers have less than a 50% chance of making the wildcard round – they really picked a bad time to shoot themselves in the foot.
- Houston defeated Tennessee and has nearly earned the AFC South title. It would take a string of miracles for the Colts to win the division this weekend and with Andrew Luck still not lacing them up – I’m ready to crown the Texans as division winners.
- Denver went from running the risk of missing the post-season to clinching a playoff spot after a Monday night victory against Cincinnati. A.J MacCarron fumbled the snap in overtime and it not only cost them the game but it gave Denver the #2 seed in the AFC and a possible first round bye. With it already being announced that Andy Dalton won’t be ready for the wild-card round due to his injury – the Bengals front office and fans everywhere have to be sweating just a wee bit.
JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS (+7) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) aim to snap a two game losing skid when they travel into Houston this weekend to take on the Texans (8-7). 2015 marks the 8th consecutive losing season for Jacksonville and just as many without a play-off appearance. But as much as this has been another disappointing year – their future seems bright. As for Houston, it looks like they’re going to win the AFC South for the third time in five seasons, and with a win would be on a three game win streak entering the post-season. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as 7-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 46-points expected.
Lets get it straight – Jacksonville has posted yet another terrible record this season, but their offensive numbers have improved tremendously this season and their issues are solely on the defensive side of the ball. In three of their last five games they’ve allowed teams to score 30 or more points – but don’t let that concern you this weekend. These teams have a divisional rivalry and it is impossible to ignore that Houston has had a carousel of quarterbacks this season. Brian Hoyer, T.J Yates, Ryan Mallet and Brand Weeden have all started games for this team. With Brandon Weeden starting the game this weekend – and posting a 2-0 record as a starter for Houston, its time for his the luck to run out. In four seasons Weeden is 2-5 after winning a game and has thrown eight total interceptions. Jacksonville might not be the most talented defensive team in the league, but they’ve got enough to pressure Weeden into making some stupid mistakes this weekend. The first time these teams met this season Houston won 31-20 but they also had Arian Foster in the back-field and had to score 21-points in the fourth quarter to comeback. I promise you Jaguars haven’t forgot how badly that loss strung, and the thirst for revenge should be seen this weekend.
Why is nobody talking about Blake Bortles? He enters the last week of the regular season one of seven quarterbacks in the league with over 4000 passing yards, and sits only one passing touchdown shy of Tom Brady for the league lead (36). He’s played incredibly well at points this season and while some of you could argue Houston has the defense to shut him down – Jacksonville plays better on the road. They enter this weekend one of five teams averaging over 3 touchdowns per game on the road this season, and are ranked 6th converting on third downs nearly 44% of the time away from home. 7-points just seems like too many points. Jacksonville has proven they can hang around this season and were a few meltdowns away from this game having post-season implications. Take the points with confidence this weekend.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 4-2 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent this season
- 3-1 against the spread versus divisional opponents this season
- 7-3 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 2-0 against the spread versus the Texans in games played in Houston the last three seasons
HOUSTON
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games at home versus a team with a losing road record
- 2-3 against the spread versus Jacksonville the last three seasons
- 10-16 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival since 1992
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 24 – TEXANS 23
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-4)
The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) will be looking for revenge this weekend when they host the New Orleans Saints (6-9). New Orleans won the week six showdown between these divisional rivals 31-21 but Falcons fans have to be confident for the final game of the season. Atlanta is riding a two game winning streak and is fresh off taking down the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers at the Georgia Dome. Oddsmakers have listed the Falcons as 4-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 52.5 points expected.
After starting the season 6-1 Atlanta fell flat on their faces and have gone 2-6 since the beginning of November. They looked like a sure-shot playoff team mid-season yet injuries and poor performances on each level cost them. It’s a little too late for them this season but they’ve got the proper offensive talent in place to run the score up on anybody in this league, and New Orleans should be a breeze this weekend. The Saints have been the worst defensive team in the entire league this season. They’re one of two teams allowing over 400 yards of total offense to opposing teams and just broke the record for most touchdown passes allowed in a single season (43). With Atlanta entering this game averaging over 270 passing yards per game, (6th) and Matt Ryan going five straight games without more than one passing touchdown – the Falcons are due to put up a number this weekend. Julio Jones has more 100 yard receiving performances this year than not, and is easily one of the best wideouts in the league today. The Saints secondary is going to have their hands full covering him this weekend and I’m expecting nothing less than a two-touchdown performance. He’s going to light it up.
Drew Brees is going to be once again relied up to carry this New Orleans team to victory. He’s played perfect in the last three weeks completing 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions, yet the Saints are still 2-1. He can’t do everything for this team and Falcons fans should be happy to know he hasn’t played great on the road this season. Only 8 of his 31 touchdown passes have come when playing away from the Mercedes Benz Super Dome, compared to 6 of his 11 interceptions. While Atlanta is a team that always plays much better defensively when at home. Look for them to pressure Brees in the pocket and force him into some difficult third and long situations.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 7-12 against the spread in January games since 1992
- 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in week seventeen
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
ATLANTA
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 38-15-1 against the spread in their last 53 games after allowing over 150 yards rushing in their previous game
- 7-4 against the spread in the last four weeks of the regular season the last three years
LOOT VALUE – 775
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 27 – FALCONS 37
DETROIT LIONS (+1) VS CHICAGO BEARS
The Detroit Lions (6-9) travel west this weekend to take on divisional rivals Chicago (6-9) at Solider Field. In the first game between these teams this season Detroit captured a victory 37-34 in overtime. The Bears are hoping they can exact revenge and win only their second game at home all season long. As for the Lions, they’re riding a two game win streak and could sweep the series in 2015 with a win on Sunday. Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as 1-point home favourites, with a total set of 46-points.
Chicago is listed as 1-pont home favourites but the scale is severely favouring Detroit to win this game in my eyes. The Lions enter this game winners in five of their last seven games and have really taken their offensive game to another level. In the first 8 games of the season they were averaging around 18-points per game. But in the second half that average has jumped up to 23-points per game. While this might also come as a surprise – Detroit has the best red-zone offense in the entire league. They are scoring a touchdown 68% of the time when they’re inside the opponents 20-yard line this season, (1st) and an even better 75% of the time when playing on the road (1st). With numbers like that it is just a question of whether they can reach the red-zone to score those points this weekend – and I’m expecting they have no troubles. Chicago enters this game 30th in the league letting opposing teams convert over 49% of the time on third-down while at home. They’ve struggled to stop teams from driving down the field this season and I’m expecting the same outcome again this weekend. The Bears have allowed over 21-points in each of their last four outings and if that happens again Detroit should win this game – the Lions are 4-2 this season when they score more than 21 points.
The Bears enter this weekend allowing a league worst average of 6.9-points per game in the first quarter this season. They really stumbled out the gate and fail to organize themselves defensively. If that trend continues this weekend Jay Cutler will be relied upon to lead the Bears to victory – and its hard to see happening. Cutler has averaged only 1 passing touchdown per game at home this year, and his favourite target Alshon Jeffery has wound up on the injury reserve for the final game of the season. Stacking up the tail of two offensive teams – the Lions are much more equipped to put up points in this game. While the 2.5 sacks per game they average this season, (11th) should force Cutler into turning the ball over at least once this weekend. Lions sweep the Bears this weekend.
TRENDS
DETRIOT
- 4-1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
- 11-6 versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 5-0 straight up against Chicago the last three seasons
CHICAGO
- 6-16 against the spread in home games the last three seasons
- 6-11 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 4-12-1 against the spread in their last 17 games as a home favourite
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing record
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 31 – BEARS 28
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5)
The Green Bay Packers (10-5) and Minnesota Vikings (10-5) close out the regular season on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. Minnesota enters this game on a two game winning streak and will be looking to exact revenge for their 30-13 loss earlier this season against Green Bay. While the Packers need a victory here so they don’t go limping into the wildcard round – Arizona plowed them last weekend 38-8. Oddsmakers are looking for this to be another close divisional game listing the Packers as 3-point home favourites, with a total set of 45.5 points.
Its simple, the winner of this game is crowned the NFC North division champion yet draws what some might call the short straw in hosting a playoff game. I say that because whomever wins on Sunday likely hosts the Seahawks in the first round, while the loser travels into Washington to take on a much less proven Redskins team.
Green Bay got hit by a train last weekend in Arizona and I’m expecting them to have a big bounce back game this weekend. Since 2012 the Packers have lost by more than 20-points only three times, and in each of the following weekends they are 3-0 and won by an average of 19-points. Aaron Rodgers has had a monkey on his back for much of the season and quite honestly nobody has stepped up to be a playmaker on this offense. Last season with Jordy Nelson the Packers were averaging nearly 30 points per game, this year they’re barely over 23 per game. While this might scream play on Minnesota – the Packers always win at home in 4th quarter of the regular season. They’re 17-2 when playing at Lambeau in December or January since 2009, and haven’t lost to Minnesota since that same calendar year.
The Vikings have found offensive success the last two weeks scoring 87 points – but putting up a number against Green Bay should prove much more difficult. The Packers close out the season one of the best defensive teams in the league when playing at home. They’re holding teams to an average of 16.7-points per game (tied for best in the league with Kansas City) and a third-down conversion percentage of 31.25% (3rd). Look for Teddy Bridgewater to be pressured heavily on Sunday night, and if they can limit the production of Adrian Peterson the Packers should once again run away with a victory. Minnesota is 4-3 in games on the road this season – but more importantly are 0-2 against teams with a winning record, and 1-4 overall against teams playoff bound. Look for the Packers to win this weekend and earn the chance to exact revenge on the Seahawks in January.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 4-11-1 against the spread in their last 16 games in week 17
- 5-10 when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 7-17 straight up against Green Bay since 1992
GREEN BAY
30-14-1 against the spread in their last 45 games as a favourite
4-0 against the spread as a home favourite between 0.5-3 points
41-19 against the spread in their last 60 games versus divisional opponents
6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up loss