Nine of fourteen games in week six were covered by the underdogs. It was a weekend full of upsets and surprises yet we enter week seven with 4 undefeated football teams. Last week my predictions finished a miserable 1-3. Carolina was the only team able to cover the spread. Denver managed to win by 3, not the 4-points necessary to cover. While Jacksonville and Tennessee both decided it was best to not even show up. As we creep into week seven and near the mid-way point of the season my predictions have gone ice cold. Officially my record sits at 10-10-1 and I’m looking for big things this weekend. But first, here’s a little recap of some action you might have missed in week six.
- Cincinnati spanked Buffalo and remained undefeated. Nobody looks capable of covering all their weapons on offense. It’s beginning to look like only a train will slow down the Bengals this season.
- Denver also remained undefeated but not without scare. Cleveland took them to overtime and Peyton threw three interceptions. With every week that passes by it looks like the Peyton Manning we know and love may never return.
- Miami proved me wrong and put on a clinic in Tennessee. Cameron wake had a ridiculous game posting 4-sacks and 2-forced fumbles. It’s going to be interesting to watch which direction this team heads the next few weeks under a new head coach.
- Pittsburgh’s back-up-back-up quarterback defeated the Cardinals and lead the Steelers to 4-2. With Roethlisburger closing in on returning Pittsburgh could easily become the leagues most potent offense. Don’t fret Antonio Brown fantasy owners.
- New York defeated Washington and remains only one-game back of New England. Their matchup this week in Foxborough is going to be an exciting one.
- Carolina defeated Seattle in Seattle. I’ll say this once again, the Legion of Boom is no longer a force and their offensive line is a joke. They are going to have to pull up their socks in San Francisco this Thursday or they just might wind up at 2-5.
- Green Bay defeated San Diego but this was the Philip Rivers show. He attempted 65 passes and completed 43 for 502 yards. At this point Rivers leads the league in passing yards at 2,117 and its not even a close second. Andy Dalton is coming in at 1,761.
- New England got the better of Indianapolis in deflate-gate 2.0. The final score was not conducive of how this game unfolded. The Colts were close at half-time but couldn’t muster a single point in the second half until a garbage time touchdown. For a third time under Tom Brady the Patriots are 5-0 to start the season. The other two times? New England went onto the Superbowl.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-4) VS TENNESSEE TITANS
The Atlanta Falcons (5-1) close out a two game road trip when they travel into Tennessee to take on the Titans (1-3) this weekend. Atlanta is coming off their first loss of the season and looks to get back into the win column, while the Titans will be aiming for their first win at home all season. Oddsmakers have listed the 5-1 Falcons as 4-point road favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 48-points.
Tennessee started off the season with a bang. They defeated Tampa Bay 42-14, Mariota broke nearly every record for a rookie quarterback in his first game; and so their season was off to a very promising start. Since then the Titans have gone 0-4 and if they fail to capture a victory this weekend it will be their fourth home loss in a row. A very tough hole to climb out of when playing three of their next four on the road. While there is light in the darkness for this team, it is difficult to envision Tennessee taking down a talented Falcons team this weekend.
Atlanta has been one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league this season. Through six weeks they are one of three teams averaging over 400 yards and 30 points per game. They have quickly become an offensive juggernaut and much of their success has been found through a revitalized running game. Last season the Falcons were 24th in the league running the ball and averaged less than 100 yards per game. This season they are 4th in the league, are averaging over 130 yards per game, and lead the league with 11 touchdowns via the ground. With the Titans defense entering Sunday 28th in the league allowing over 130 rushing yards per game, it could get ugly early. If the ground game opens up early for the Falcons then Matt Ryan should have no troubles putting this contest to bed early. Julio Jones is arguably the most talented wide receiver in the league and on multiple occasions this season already we have seen him exemplify that. Don’t be shocked if the Falcons offense puts up a number against the Titans this Sunday.
The future of the Titans franchise relies on the legs of Marcus Mariota. But this weekend, fans will likely have to wait. Mariota suffered a low hit against Miami last Sunday and the early diagnosis is a sprained MCL, which usually takes between 4-6 weeks to heal. If thats the case and Zach Mettenberger gets the nod behind centre this weekend then Atlanta should be viewed as a lock to win. Mettenberger is 0-7 as a starter in the NFL and has an interception in every single game. Chew on that information and toss in the fact the Falcons have had the best run defense in the entire league this season (78 yards per game). Mettenberger looks to be in serious trouble this weekend. The Titans have lost by an average of 18-points per game when Zach is their starting quarterback. Don’t be a dummy and lay the points this weekend, Atlanta has had over 10-days of rest and should demolish the downward spiralling Titans.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games in week seven
- 3-1 against the spread off a loss against the divisional rival the last three seasons
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games a road favourite between 3.5-10 points
TENNESSEE
- 3-12 against the spread in all home games the last three seasons
- 3-12 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 5-16-1 against the spread after allowing 150 rushing yards or more in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 27 – TITANS 10
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS ST. LOUIS RAMS (-5.5)
The St. Louis Rams (2-3) look stay above .500 at home this season when they welcome the Cleveland Browns (2-4) into town. The Rams desperately need a win if they have any hopes of staying close in a tough NFC West division, while the Browns are looking to tie back-to-back road victories together. Oddsmakers are favouring St. Louis in this matchup as 5.5-point home favourites, with a total set of 42-points expected.
Neither of these teams have been magnificent this season, but St. Louis is in the best position to bounce back here. Cleveland has played back-to-back overtime games and enter week seven allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They are giving up a league worst 150 rushing yards per game and this is great news for Rams fans who have seen their running game explode the last two weeks with Todd Gurley. Gurley has carried the ball 55 times in his first three starts and is averaging over 5.7 yards per carry. While in his last two starts he has broken through for a run of 50 yards or longer in each game. With the Browns struggling to contain opposing running backs this season and the Rams having found what looks to be their franchise back for years to come – Cleveland looks in waist deep water this weekend.
Cleveland has one of the worst offensive lines in the league this season. Through six weeks they have allowed their quarterbacks to get sacked a total of 22-times (3rd most in the league) and hit 45-times (2nd most). With St. Louis averaging nearly 4-sacks per game this season Josh McCown could spend a lot of time on his back this weekend. Either way, the Rams have one of the best pass rushing teams in the league and should pressure Cleveland into a couple mistakes this weekend. The Browns enter this matchup tied for 25th in the league with 11 giveaways this year. It’s deceiving since both of these teams have very similar records but don’t be fooled. St. Louis is the much better of the two teams here and have had nearly two weeks of rest to prepare for this matchup.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games in week seven
- 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games in St. Louis
- 9-14-1 against the spread versus non-conference opponents since 2009
ST. LOUIS
- 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 seasons following their bye week
- 6-3 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
- 4-1 against the spread after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 13 – RAMS 24
The San Diego Chargers (2-4) return home this weekend to take on the Oakland Raiders (2-3) in a pivotal divisional matchup. This marks the first of two games between these teams this season. Oakland will be looking to snap a three game losing streak in Qualcomm Stadium. While the Chargers are aiming to end a two game losing skid. Oddsmakers have listed the Chargers as 4-point home favourites for this matchup with a total set of 47-points.
Oakland should be fresh this weekend coming off a bye but I’m expecting San Diego to cover the points here. The Chargers have been getting the shaft for much of the season. Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less and could have gone either way. While Philip Rivers would most definitely find himself in MVP conversation if the Chargers had a winning record. He is having the best year of his career. Through six games he is averaging over 350 yards per game, has 178 total completions, and a completion percentage over 70%. Those 178 completions are 23 more than the next best quarterback in the league, and the fact he still has a completion percentage of 70% throwing that many balls is off the charts. With Oakland allowing the second most passing yards per game this season (299) and San Diego in a do-or-die situation this weekend playing at home, I’m expecting another electric outing by Rivers.
San Diego has struggled at points defensively this season but I’m looking for them to put forth a great performance this weekend. They enter 7th best in the league against the pass, allowing 221 yards per game – and sit 1st in the league allowing teams to convert less than 4 total third-downs per game. If this stays true this weekend then fans at the game will go home happy. Oakland is 1-2 in games this season when facing a top 10 passing defense and have lived off converting third downs this season. Don’t be surprised when the Chargers play a complete game this weekend and send the Raiders packing for a forth straight game in Qualcomm.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 4-8 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 33-72 against the spread versus teams with a losing record since 1992
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in week seven
SAN DEIGO
- 11-1 when below .500 off back-to-back straight us losses and facing a divisional opponent
- 35-16 against the spread in their last 51 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 6-1 versus below .500 opponents coming off a straight up loss under head coach Mike McCoy
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 23 – CHARGERS 35
NEW YORK JETS (+9) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The New York Jets (4-1) are set to take on the New England Patriots (6-0) this weekend in Gillette Stadium. New England will be looking to keep their unbeaten season alive while the Jets are simply looking to win their third straight as they come off a bye week. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as massive 9-point favourites with a total set of 48-points.
Tom Brady has the Patriots offense looking unstoppable this season but if anyone can slow them down its this Jets defense. They enter this weekend allowing the fewest total yards per game (269), first downs (16.2), yards per play (4.3) and points per game (15). Nobody has been able touch the Jets on defense. These four statical categories show just how explosive their defensive play has been this season, and it should be interesting to see how Tom Brady deals with the talent. The Patriots have demolished apposing secondaries this season but this is by far the best defensive team they have faced all year.
Chris Ivory is having a career season and he should continue that this weekend. New England has struggled against the rush this season, they are allowing teams to earn 4.9 yards per carry (29th) and over 119 yards per game (22nd). Keep in mind most teams the Patriots have faced this season have abandoned the run game in order to come back. With Ivory earning 5.5 yards per carry (6th highest) this season the Jets have a very good chance of exposing a weak Patriots run defense and a chance to control the tempo of this game.
Rob Gronkowski is a match-up nightmare for teams but it just so happens the Jets are amongst the best in the league against opposing tight ends. They enter week seven allowing the second fewest receptions to tight ends and a low 3.8 yards per reception. This team has the necessary talent and pieces in place to contain Gronkowski. If they can blanket Brady’s go-to target then the Jets will have a legitimate shot at not just covering the spread, but winning this game.
New England has lived on third-down and short this season. They are the only team converting over 50% of their third downs but New York could challenge them this weekend. Only Houston and Denver are better at stopping teams on third downs (31.94%). Expect this game to be a classic Jets/Patriots matchup of defense versus offense. Since 2012 every game at Gillette stadium between these teams has been decided by 3-points. Its not crazy to expect a vastly improved Jets team to have no trouble keeping this game within 9-points.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 versus New England
- 8-1 against the spread as road underdogs off a double-digit against the spread versus divisional opponents
- 13-2 as road underdogs with revenge versus above .500 divisional opponents off a straight up win
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games versus divisional opponents
NEW ENGLAND
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 5-8 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons