Its been a long haul, but we can all take a deep sign of relief; football is back. After eight long months the NFL regular season is set to kick off this week. Over the next five months we will see new leaders denoted, records broken, and champions crowned. While I’m just as excited as the next person to see how it all unfolds. I’m far more interested in predicting those outcomes before they occur, and making you all a lot of money in doing so.
Last season my predictions finished 39-28-1 in the regular season (58%), and 7-4 in the post-season (63%). Marking it my most successful yet. But enough beating around the bush. Lets take a look at the teams I’m favouring heading into week one of the regular season.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) VS BUFFALO BILLS
The Buffalo Bills kick off their regular season against the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills are looking to win their fourth home opener in the past five years. While oddsmakers have listed the Luck-led Colts as 2.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 46 points for this matchup.
Many people have big expectations for Buffalo this season (including myself), but it is difficult to envision a scenario in which they beat the Colts this weekend. I’m expecting it will take them a couple games to get adjusted to new coaching schemes and changes. As for Indianapolis, they loaded up on offensive talent this off-season and analysts are already raving they built a championship contender around Andrew Luck. While that surely looks the case, some of you might argue Buffalo’s defense could show otherwise this weekend. The Bills closed out last season allowing the 4th fewest yards per game, and have already been labelled as one of the best defensive lines in the entire league. While we’re all excited to see how they look this weekend, you have to recall that Andrew Luck was one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the league last season. With yet another off-season under his belt studying film, I’m expecting him to be fully prepared for Rex Ryan’s zone blitzing scheme’s and take advantage when they are thin in coverage downfield.
With big off-season acquisitions like LeSean McCoy, the Bills will surely have a different look in 2015. But there is still a serious question mark beside the quarterback position. Tyrod Taylor has been announced as the starter for week one, but how can any Bills fan be confident in this guy that has seen more rushing attempts than completions in his first four years in the NFL? In order to compete with the powerhouse that is the Colts offense, scoring points is a necessity. It’s looking as if Buffalo will be relying heavily on their defense in this matchup and if it falters the Colts should run away with this one. Buffalo was 2-6 last season when they allowed opponents to score 20 or more points. While Indianapolis was held under 20 points only three times in nineteen total games all last season.
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 9-1 as road favourites in weeks 1-4 versus non-divisional opponents
- Chuck Pagano is 10-1 all time off a straight up loss (including play-offs)
- 10-2 against the spread as road favourites the last three seasons
- 9-0 after allowing 35-points or more in the previous game
BUFFALO
- 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 games versus Indianapolis
- 4-14-2 in their last 20 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 1-8 after facing the Patriots
FINAL – COLTS 24 – BILLS 20
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Washington Redskins open their 2015 regular season against the Miami Dolphins this weekend at FedEx Field. With kick-off scheduled for 1PM EST, the Redskins will aim to win their second straight home opener. While the Dolphins have been listed by Oddsmakers as 3.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Embarrassing; soon to be widespread Pandemonium. I don’t think there is a better way to exemplify how the Redskins off-season has gone, and which direction their regular season looks to be heading. When news broke that RG III was seriously being considered to be cut from the roster, I couldn’t believe it. It’s only been three years since they traded the franchise to get this guy! I just keep re-running the picture in my mind from last season when Jeff Fisher sent every first round selection they’ve drafted from that trade onto the field for a coin toss in week 13 (incase you’ve forgotten, they lost that game 24-0). Things are not looking good to start the season for this team, and Miami is definitely one of the last team’s anyone would like to host in a home opener.
The Dolphins made the biggest splash this off-season signing Ndamukong Suh to a 6-year 116 million dollar contract. The guy might be the dirtiest defensive tackle in the league, but he is going to make Miami’s pass rush unmatched. Cameron Wake had 11.5 sacks for Miami last season, and getting to see what this guy is capable of when he isn’t consistently double teamed should be nothing shy of impressive. With Washington sitting 30th overall last season seeing only 12 third downs per game, and a record of converting only one-third of those, their offense has clearly struggled. While it is a new year and new season, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Redskins fail to score a touchdown in this matchup.
Miami’s offense enters this season with a new look and high expectations. They were able to draft 6’3 wide receiver DeVante Parker from Louisville. They signed Kenny Stills from New Orleans and tight end Jordan Cameron from Cleveland. While everyone has big expectations for fourth year quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill lead Miami last season to the second most red-zone scoring attempts per game (4.2), but struggled to convert a little over 50% of those attempts into touchdowns. But with a new look offense and playing a Redskins defense that allowed a league worst 3 offensive touchdowns per game last season; the Dolphins should win their third straight season opener.
TRENDS
MIAMI
- 2-1 against the spread as road favourites in 2014
- 5-3 against the spread in September games the last three seasons
- 6-2 as away favourite since 2010
WASHINGTON
- 7-18 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons
- 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home games
- 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
FINAL SCORE – DOLPHINS 27 – REDSKINS 10
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Oakland Raiders are looking to win a home opener for the first time since 2011 when they host the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend. Oakland has posted twelve straight seasons with a record of .500 or worse and fans are already labelling Amari Cooper as their saving messiah. While the Bengals enter the season with what some have called the most talented overall roster in the entire league. Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati as 3-point favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 43.5 points for these AFC rivals.
Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in over 24 years, the longest in the entire league. But that doesn’t change the fact they should rake Oakland over the coals this Sunday. The Raiders allowed a league worst 28-points per game last season. Their secondary was questionable at best, and the sole bright spot on the entire roster was Khalil Mack and his four sacks. While they expect him to take another leap forward this season, the Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in the entire league and arguably the best running back tandem in Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Only Seattle scored more rushing touchdowns than the Bengals last season. If that success carries over into this season Oakland should be hard pressed to keep this game within reach. They averaged a league worst 9-yards per completion last year and were dead-last with only 30 plays of 20-yards or longer all season.
While Amari Cooper is expected to make a large difference for Oakland’s offense, I don’t expect his debut to be groundbreaking. Cincinnati ranked 3rd best in the league last season holding opponents to just 1.1 passing touchdown per game. While in their last six road games they held opponents to merely 14.3 points per game. I’m expecting the secondary to hold him in check all afternoon; and if thats the case Oakland should lose for a forth consecutive time on opening weekend. The Raiders haven’t won a game since 2009 when they score 14-points or less in matchup.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 7-1-2 against the spread in their last 10 games in September
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games versus Oakland
- 5-0 against the spread versus AFC West opponents
OAKLAND
- 8-20 against the spread since 1992 as a home underdog of 3 points or less
- 1-11 SU and against the spread versus teams off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each
- 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games on grass
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 33 – RAIDERS 19
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) VS SAN FRANCISCO
The San Francisco 49ers are set to kick off their 2015 season against the Minnesota Vikings in Levi’s stadium this weekend. When this spread was released months ago Oddsmakers had San Francisco favoured by as many 4-points. Currently, the 49ers are 2.5-point home underdogs for this matchup. But I still believe there is value in taking the Vikings this Monday.
Minnesota enters this season labelled as everyones favourite sleeper. They not only have the youngest overall activate roster in the entire league. But Teddy Bridgewater is entering his second full season. Adrian Peterson is returning from suspension, and they signed Mike Wallace in the off-season which should give them an immediate deep threat. While some of you might be sceptical given how the 49ers defense always plays tough at home. I’d like to remind you they are a shell of what they used to be. Chris Culliver, what many called their most talented cornerback left for free agency. Inside Linebacker Chris Borland retired after only one season, and accounted for 108 tackles on this defense last season. While Justin Smith and Patrick Willis packed up and also retired; and that hurt more than anything. These guys were two of the most talented players on their entire roster, and I’m not convinced they have the depth in place to replace such talent. We all know the results you get when you start a bunch of nobodies against the best running back in the league, and it isn’t desirable 49ers fans.
After being placed on the same level as Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick seriously disappointed last season. While a coaching change might help his cause, losing his favourite wide receiver and starting running back to free-agency should not. Nor should the fact Minnesota ranked 7th in the league allowing only 223 passing yards per game last season.
This game could very well be decided by how well San Francisco protects Kaepernick. Last season they allowed him to get sacked the 3rd most of anyone in the league (52 times). With Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr expected to breakout this season and the team spending their first two pick in the 2015 draft on Tray Wayne (arguably the best cornerback in the draft), and Eric Kendricks (Inside Linebacker). The Vikings defense should take yet another step forward this season. Don’t be surprised when Minnesota punishes San Francisco at home week one. After all, they did embarrass their divisional foes St. Louis 34-6 at home in week one last season.
MINNESOTA
- 8-4 against the spread in games where the last is between +3 and -3 the last three seasons
- 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games
- 5-1 against the spread in all games where the total is between 35.5-42 points the last three seasons
SAN FRANCISCO
- 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games versus the NFC
- 2-9-2 against the last in their last thirteen games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a home underdog between 0.5-3 points
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 23 – 49ERS 16