As we enter the second half of the season my predictions have taken a turn for the worse. Last week I finished 1-3 in the four games I analyzed, bringing me down to 13-15-1 on the season. Minnesota was the only team that covered the spread and won their football game. While my predictions in Detroit, the New York Jets and Green Bay all proved inaccurate. With the season now half-over its going to take an incredible turnaround for me to re-establish myself with an above .500 record to finish the season. But before we look ahead into who I think will win this week (but will probably lose), lets take a look at some highlights from week eight:
- New England, Cincinnati, Denver and Carolina all remained undefeated. An NFL record for four teams to be undefeated entering the ninth week of the NFL season.
- With four teams undefeated someone has to be losing. Entering this weekend 21 of 32 NFL teams have a record of .500 or below.
- Kansas City reminded everyone they don’t need Jamal Charles to win football games. They crushed Detroit 45-10 in London. Its beginning to look like the Lions are the worst team in the league. Could Megatron be on his way out? If the proper trade hit the table, I think so.
- Baltimore won their 2nd game of the season while handing San Diego their 4th straight loss. Steve Smith is likely done for the rest of the season with a torn achilles. Lets just stop and think about this – it could be the last time we see him play football.
- Houston might be without Arian Foster for the year but they handed Tennessee their 6th straight loss. The Titans are in the dog-house of the AFC South, but that doesn’t say much. Nobody is better than .500 in what is easily the worst division in the league.
- Pittsburgh was leading Cincinnati nearly all afternoon but after losing Le’Veon Bell to what is considered a “severe” ACL tear, things went spiralling downward. Big Ben threw a couple interceptions and Andy Dalton led yet anotherBengals comeback.
- New York and New Orleans combined for the highest scoring game all season long. A 49-52 Saints final was electric. Both of these teams just put their defense away and threw touch-down after touch-down. Eli and Drew Brees combined for a total of 13 touchdown passes, an NFL record.
- Derrek Carr proved me wrong and made a mockery of the Jets secondary. Leading the Raiders to an above .500 record after week seven for the first time since 2010. Its difficult to believe, but Oakland is actually good this year.
- Denver smashed Green Bay on Sunday night and held Aaron Rodgers under 100 passing yards. This performance solidified them as the most elite defensive team in the league. While going out and trading for Vernon Davis on Monday morning shows its all or nothing for Denver this season. You might not believe it, but I think this team could be better defensively than what Seattle was when they beat Denver in the Super Bowl two years ago.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Green Bay Packers (6-1) fly south this weekend to take on the Carolina Panthers (7-0). Green Bay will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season. While the Panthers look to remain undefeated on the season and win back-to-back games in Charlotte against the Packers. In 2011 Carolina defeated Green Bay 30-23. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Panthers as 2.5-point underdogs despite a perfect record, with a total set of 46.5 points expected.
Denver did a fantastic job shutting down Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense last weekend. They limited Rodgers to less than 100 yards passing for the first time in his career when playing a complete game. While Carolina can been identified as a premier defensive team themselves, history shows Rodgers and this Packers offense bouncing back in a big way this weekend. Since the 2011 season only five teams have held Rodgers under 200 yards passing in a game. The following weekend he has lead the Packers to a combined 5-0 record, throwing for an average of 304 yards per game and a total of 14 touchdowns with zero interceptions. To say that Rodgers rarely plays terrible in back-to-back games would be an understatement. This man defines what a bounce-back performance looks like, and we should witness that this weekend.
Carolina is undefeated but they have had one of the easiest schedules to this point in the season. Through eight weeks nobody they have played has a record above .500, only the Saints and Seahawks sit at .500 exactly. Their five other victories came against teams that combine for a 15-23 record and all sit outside the top 14 defensive teams in yards allowed per game this season. Its difficult to deny that Cam Newton is having an MVP calibre type season but Green Bay is the best defensive team he will face yet this season. While we can’t forget he’ll be doing so on a shortened week of rest (playing on Monday night). Entering this matchup the Packers are 7th in the league in points allowed per game (18.6 PPG), and 6th in touchdowns allowed (2 PG).
Break out your cheese heads because the Packers are a lock to win this matchup. Rodgers hasn’t lost back-to-back games since the 2010 NFL season. Thats a total of 71 games, just so we’re all on the same page.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following an against the spread loss
- 11-5-1 against the spread in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous outing
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of 14 points or more
- 27-11-1 against the spread in their last 39 games as the favourite
CAROLINA
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in November
- 2-8 against the spread in second of back-to-back home games
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games at home against Green Bay
- 1-6 at home versus above .500 non-divisional opponents in 2nd quarter games (5-8)
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 27 – PANTHERS 20
WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)
The New England Patriots (7-0) put their undefeated season on the line this weekend when they welcome the Washington Redskins (3-4) into town. Washington should be fresh coming into Foxborough off their bye week. While the Patriots aim to keep a 6 game home unbeaten streak alive. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as massive 13.5-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 52-points.
High hopes; this is surely how most Washington fans feel. They had their largest comeback in team history two weeks ago and every team from the NFC East division that played last weekend lost. Unfortunately, they play the best team in the NFL this weekend and have the misfortune of going into their home stadium. New England has been virtually unbeatable at home the last three seasons. They are 21-3 since the beginning of the 2012 season, and have won games by an average of 13 points. It’s not quite the 14-points oddsmakers are predicting this weekend. But we have to take into consideration Washington is terrible defensively – New England could easily drop 50 points.
Entering this matchup Washington is one of the worst teams in the league on the road. They are giving up over 400 total yards on defense per outing (29th) and 30 points per game (29th). With the Patriots averaging over 400 total yards on offense per game this season and the highest scoring offense in the league, (35.5 PPG) expect Washington to get hit by a train this weekend. Nobody has been able to contain all the weapons that they have on offense this season. Gronkowski, Edelman, Amendola, Blount – you name it, anybody on this team can score at any minute and its because of Brady. He is one of the quickest quarterbacks in the NFL at getting the ball out of his hands, and his league best rating of 115 this season exemplifies that.
The last time Washington played in Foxborough they got blown them out 52-7. With Kurt Cousins throwing an average of 2 interceptions per game on the road this season, this game could get ugly. I’m looking for a Patriots steamroll performance and for this game to be over well before half-time.
TRENDS
WASHINGTON
- 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up win
- 2-10 against the spread after accumulating over 350 total yards of offense in their previous game
- 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 games overall
NEW ENGLAND
- 4-0-1 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous outing
- 6-1 against the spread after a Thursday game
- 72-33-2 against the spread in their last 107 games after accumulating 350 total yards or more in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 675
FINAL SCORE – REDSKINS 17 – PATRIOTS 43
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6.5) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The San Francisco 49ers (2-6) return home this weekend to host the Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at Levi’s Stadium. San Francisco is off to their worst start since the 2010 season, and aim to snap a two game losing skid this weekend. While the Falcons have already tied their win total from all of last season. For this weekends matchup oddsmakers have listed the hometown 49ers as 6.5-point home underdogs wth a total set of 44.5 points.
Get it while its hot. This spread won’t be dangling around 7-points come Sunday when this game kicks-off. San Francisco openly benched Colin Kaepernick on Monday in favour of Blaine Gabbert. Yes, Blaine Gabbert. In Gabbert’s tenor in the NFL he has a 5-26 record as a starting quarterback, and in his last four starts has only two touchdowns in relation to seven interceptions. Let that sink in for a minute… and this guy is starting? Okay, thats all dandy but who does he have to work with? Carlos Hyde and Anquan Bolden are both nursing injuries, while they traded Vernon Davis on Monday to the Denver Broncos. Their offense is looking awful slim entering this game, but since they already enter averaging a league worst 13.6 points per game on offense things can’t get any worse… can they?
Atlanta has the pieces in place to hand San Francisco another licking this weekend. Entering week nine they are the 7th highest scoring team in the league averaging nearly 27-points per game. This screams trouble for the 49ers. Atlanta is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the league, and San Francisco won’t be able to key on one component of the Falcons offense – it will take a complete shutdown performance. Devonte Freeman leads the league with over 700 yards rushing already this season while Julio Jones leads all wide receivers averaging over 111 yards per game. Nobody has been able to contain both these guys simultaneously this season and I doubt San Francisco will become the first. They are allowing teams to scoring touchdowns 65.38% of the time when inside the red-zone this season, (31st) and are losing by an average of over 12-points per game (32nd). The 49ers have massive problems on both sides of the ball and I expect a confident Falcons roster should expose that again this weekend.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games in week 9
- 7-3 against the spread after accumulating over 350 total yards of offense in their previous game
SAN FRANCISCO
- 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following an against the spread loss
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 home games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games versus teams with a winning record
- 2-11 against the spread in their last 13 games on grass
LOOT VALUE – 775
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 30 – 49ERS 16
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
The Dallas Cowboys (2-6) host their second straight home game when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) into AT&T Stadium this weekend. Dallas will be looking to replicate a week two victory against the Eagles this weekend. While Philadelphia could jump into a tie for the divisional lead with a win. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Eagles as 2.5-point road favourite with a total set of 44.5 points.
Its been six long games for Cowboys fans since the last time these teams met. Dallas started 2-0 but since defeating Philadelphia in week two they have been skidding, and I have no reason to believe that will end this weekend. Tony Romo is still weeks away from entering this lineup and starter Matt Cassel just doesn’t have the quarterback IQ to defeat this Eagles secondary. In two starts this season he has thrown only one touchdown pass and three inceptions. To make matters worse this should be his most difficult test all year. Entering this weekend the Eagles lead the entire NFL with 19 turnovers this season and should be plenty fresh seeing nearly 14 days of rest since their last matchup.
After a sluggish start to the regular season the Eagles have began to turn things around. They’ve won two of their last three outings and have been scoring an average of 27-PPG in those games. A large improvement from the 19.5 they averaged their first four games. I accredit the extra touchdown per-game to a vastly improved run game. In their first three games of the season Philadelphia eclipsed 50 total yards rushing only once. Their offensive line couldn’t block anyone and run lanes were non-existent, but in their last three they have really cleaned things up. They are the averaging the 2nd most rushing yards per game the last three weeks – 173 yards per outing (only St. Louis is averaging more). If they establish the ground game early in this matchup it should open up the glaring weaknesses that this Cowboys secondary has.
With the Cowboys slumping and Romo not yet back on the field, I find it extremely unlikely Cassel leads the Cowboys to a victory. Not even the return of Dez Bryant can save this team. Expect a close matchup between these teams being division rivals, but the Eagles to find a way to victory.
TRENDS
PHILADEPHIA
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record
- 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in November
- 2-1 against the spread after a loss this season
- 6-1 against the spread with rest versus opponents under .600
- 15-2 off a double-digit against the spread loss with revenge versus divisional opponents
DALLAS
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 9
- 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games in November
- 2-5 against the spread this season