After successful back-to-back campaigns, my week thirteen predictions finished indifferent. I finished a combined 2-2 bringing me to a 27-21-2 on the year. With only four weeks remaining to improve my regular season record I’m hopeful that one of the remaining four weekends have a coveted 4-0 record waiting – seeing as I have yet to post one this season. But before I get ahead of myself, lets take a look back at the weekend that was, and how things could shape up as we head down the final stretch.
- Dallas defeated Minnesota on Thursday night and continued their record setting winning streak to 11-games. At this point, I’m not sure who can handle Dallas. Minnesota played an incredible defensive football game and still couldn’t come out on top. The Cowboys have to be a clear cut favourite to make the SuperBowl this season. After all, it looks like they’ll be playing every game leading up to SuperBowl LI at AT&T Stadium.
- Kansas City just keeps winning games. After beating Denver by a field goal in overtime on Monday, the Chiefs walked into Atlanta and iced the game on a 2-point interception return by Eric Berry. Berry had a combined 8-points in this game when you consider the pick-6 earlier he had earlier in the game. This was yet another heart-breaking loss for Falcon’s fans. If they simply kicked an extra point they would have gone up by 2-points. Instead they ended up going down by 1-point and had to kick Kansas City the ball with nearly no time left on the clock. Either way you look at it, Kansas City just keeps winning games.
- Detroit just keeps on proving doubters wrong. They knocked off New Orleans 28-13 on Sunday and were listed as one of the biggest underdogs all weekend at 6-points before kickoff. I’m gonna go ahead and say the Lions has the most impressive win all weekend. Just one week prior New Orleans scored 49-points against the Los Angeles Rams. Detroit held them under two touchdowns, improved to 8-4, and took a commanding lead in the NFC North.
- I keep telling myself every year that Jacksonville will be better. Why do I keep thinking this? They continually prove me wrong. Their 20-10 loss against Denver on Sunday has officially eliminated them from the playoffs. Somehow I imagined they would have a chance at defeating Denver. Just give me the paper bag.
- Green Bay kept their playoff hopes alive beating Houston 21-13 at Lambeau. The Packers are now 6-6 and still two games back of Detroit for the NFC North lead. These two teams meet week 17 in Green Bay, in a game that could very well decide who makes the post-season from the NFC North.
- Cincinnati gave Philadelphia a beating on Sunday. The game ended 32-14, but the Bengals held the Eagles without points for the entire first half opening up a 29-0 lead at one point. Philadelphia is officially outside the playoffs this season, and Cincinnati isn’t far behind.
- Baltimore knocked off Miami 38-6 handing the Dolphins their first loss in six weeks. The Ravens defense looked incredible holding Miami without points for three quarters of football. Joe Flacco tore apart the Dolphins secondary for one of his best games as a Raven. He finished with four passing touchdowns and 381 passing yards. Miami might be close, but they’re not going to make the playoffs this season.
- A week after the Dolphins defense made Colin Kaepernick look incredible, the Bears defense held him to only one completion for four yards on Sunday. Yes, San Francisco only earned 4 total passing yards on Sunday. FOUR! Kaepernick was obviously benched in this game. At 1-12, it looks like San Francisco will have their hat in on the first overall draft pick this upcoming year.
- Buffalo looked like they might knock off Oakland after the first half on Sunday, but the Raiders did what they do best – they came back in convincing fashion. Buffalo was up 24-9 in the third quarter but then allowed the Raiders to score 28 unanswered points and finish with a decisive 38-24 victory. At 10-2 Oakland is a lock to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.
- Tampa continues to keep their hat in the mix for the NFC South title. They knocked off San Diego 28-21 on Sunday and earned their fourth straight victory. This win brings them to 7-5 on the year, and into a tie with Atlanta for first place in the NFC South. To close out the season the Buccaneers play New Orleans twice, Carolina and Dallas. While the Falcons play San Francisco, Carolina, Los Angeles and New Orleans. Atlanta clearly has the easier of the two schedules, but with both of these teams playing New Orleans three times, if the Saints win out they could very well win the NFC South title and make a surprising post-season appearance.
- Speaking of close divisions, the AFC West couldn’t get any tighter. Oakland is 10-2, but they’ve only got a two game lead on third place Denver. Kansas City is 9-3, while the Broncos are 8-4. These teams each have scheduled games against one another before the end of the regular season, so a lot could change in the next four weeks. First and foremost, keep your eyes peeled to the Oakland Kansas City matchup this Thursday. This game could decide who wins this division and gets home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City has already beat Oakland once this season and if they win again on Thursday they’ll almost be guaranteed home field advantage throughout the playoffs (disregarding the Patriots). At 15/1 to win the SuperBowl – Kansas City is looking like a great value bet right now. They’ve got a tremendous defense, and one of the best home field advantages in the entire league.
- Indianapolis put up 40-points for the first time all year in New York on Monday Night. The Colts are now tied with Houston for the AFC South lead and these two teams are scheduled to meet this weekend in Indianapolis. This game could easily decide who earns a playoff spot this season.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) welcome the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) into EverBank Field this weekend. The Jaguars are looking to end a 8 game losing skid. They’ve been on a downward spiral since week five of the season, and have not won a single game at home all season long. As for the Vikings, they’ve lost six of their last seven, but can take solstice in the fact they have won each of their last three meetings versus the Jaguars. Oddsmakers have listed the Vikings as 3-point favourites this weekend, with a total set of 39.5 points expected.
At 2-10 the Jaguars are going to finish with a losing record for a 9th consecutive season. They have had a draft selection inside the top ten of the first round in each of the last 9 seasons, yet they continue to stink. How they find themselves as only 3-point underdogs versus Minnesota this weekend is beyond me. The Vikings should run away with this game for three simple reasons;
- Blake Bortles is the bane of the Jaguars existence.
- Jacksonville has ZERO playmakers on the defensive side of the football
- Minnesota can score on both sides of the football
in the last five games the Vikings defense has faced Kirk Cousins, Carson Palmer, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford twice. All of these quarterbacks are having phenomenal seasons outside of Palmer, and Minnesota has done a great job is shutting nearly every single one of them down. When you compare what these other quarterbacks have failed to accomplished against the Vikings secondary this season, it is easy to see that Blake Bortles should struggle this weekend. In the last three games the Vikings have held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 163 yards passing per game (2nd) and an average passer rating of 79.7 (2nd). Compare these numbers to that of Bortles this season and it is easy to see the Vikings defense should slaughter Jacksonville on Sunday. This season Bortles is averaging 6.07 yards per passing completion, (31st) a 58.4% completion percentage (29th) and an average rating of 76.9 per game this year (29th). He is hands down one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year, and this further proves my point – since entering the league in 2013 Bortles has thrown a total of 50 interceptions, most in the entire league. Break those numbers down further and of those 50 interceptions, 11 have been returned for 6 points.
The Jaguars defense has been surprisingly average this season, but when given the opportunity to make a game changing play nobody can step out of the shadows. Entering this weekend this defense has 3 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles for a grand total of 7 turnovers, fewest in the entire league. Minnesota might not have the best offensive line, but they do have playmakers on offense and have taken tremendous care of the football as season. In twelve games this season the Vikings have only 9 give aways on offense, 4th fewest. Unless the Jaguars find a way to win the turnover battle this weekend, my gut tells me that the Vikings defense will win this game.
Minnesota has forced a total of 22 turnovers on defense this season, 4th most in the league. Between special teams and their defense they have scored a total of 6 touchdowns, most in the entire league. This team is capable of scoring on almost any play, and statistics show they should have the opportunity to add to that total this weekend. Bortles has thrown 3 pick-6’s this season, (1st) while their special teams have allowed one punt return touchdown. If Minnesota pins the Jaguars deep in their own territory this weekend then special teams could just win it. Jacksonville is giving up a league worst average 13.8 return yards per punt this season. While Vikings return man Marcus Sherel’s already has two punt return touchdowns this season (1st ). Either way you look at this matchup, Minnesota has a serious advantage on the defensive side of the football and should find a way to impact this game.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 18-7 against the spread in their last 25 games following a straight up loss
- 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games versus teams with a losing record
- 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games in December
JAGUARS
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 9-19-1 against the spread in their last 29 games as a home underdog
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games after limiting opponents to less than 250 total yards in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 23 – JAGUARS 13
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers (4-8) return home this weekend to take on the San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina has lost three of their last four games and are officially outside the playoff race. They have faced each team from the AFC West this season except the Chargers, and are a combined 0-3 in those games. As for San Diego, they are last place in the AFC West, and will miss the playoffs for a third straight year. Oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 1.5-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 48 points.
After finishing 15-1 last season and making a SuperBowl run, Carolina has stunk up the joint this season. I actually thought this team could be better this season with wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back in the lineup after missing all of last season. But here we are, entering week fourteen and the Panthers are 4-8 nearly eliminated from the playoff picture. The major difference between last years success and this years shortfalls – the secondary. All I can say is it was a major mistake letting Josh Norman walk. I said this a couple weeks ago, but I can’t emphasize enough how badly the Panthers secondary has been getting demolished this season. Entering week fourteen they are ranked 29th in the league allowing an average completion percentage of 67.47% to opposing quarterbacks. While the 22 passing touchdowns they have given up this year is already one more than what they allowed all of last season. With a gapping hole in their secondary it has allowed opposing teams to open up the playbook, while it has significantly cut down the time their linebacking core has to rush the quarterback. The 26.8 points per game this defense is giving up per game this season (28th most) is a perfect example of how penetrable this secondary is compared to 2015. Last season the Panthers were the 6th ranked defense holding opponents to an average of 19.2 points per game.
All of this add’s up to the Chargers scoring ALOT of points this weekend. Philip Rivers has make some mistakes this year but he’s leading the Chargers to an average of 27.8 points per game, 4th most in the league. In five of ten games this season the Chargers have scored 31 or more points. They’ve been held under 20 points only once all year. As for Carolina, they are 3-7 this season when they allow teams to score 20 or more points this season. Rivers can spread the ball around better than nearly any quarterback in the league and was coined Mr. December for good reason. Since taking over as the Chargers quarterback in 2006 Rivers had led the Chargers to a 35-13 record in games played in December and January.
TRENDS
SAN DEIGO
- 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss
- 41-19-4 against the spread in their last 64 games as a road underdog
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
CAROLINA
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing 150 rushing yards or more in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in December
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home favourite
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 29 – PANTHERS 23
HOUSTON TEXANS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5)
The Houston Texans (6-6) and Indianapolis Colts (6-6) square off for the second time this season. These division rivals have identical records entering week fourteen and the outcome of this game will drastically affect who wins the AFC South this season, and a coveted playoff position this year. Houston will be looking to end a three game losing skid in Lucas Oil Stadium. While the Colts are aiming to win four of their last five games. Oddsmakers have listed the Colts 5.5-point home favourites for this divisional matchup, with the over/under being placed at 47-points.
Houston has hit a brick wall at the wrong time of the season. After a 6-3 start they’ve been snake bitten and I’ve got plenty of reasons to believe than Indianapolis can extend that streak to four straight losses this weekend. Firstly, coming into this game the Colts offensive line has been improving. On the year they are allowing opposing teams to sack Andrew Luck an average of 3 times per game, 2nd most in the league. But in the last four games they’re only giving up an average of 2. One sack fewer might not seem like much, but it is enough to extend a scoring drive or keep their offense in field goal range. Houston is undoubtedly one of the best in the league at pressuring the quarterback, but they’re missing some serious playmakers on defense. J.J Watt is out with a season ending back injury, while Jadeveon Clowney is coming off his first missed game this season with elbow and wrist injuries. His status for this weekend is uncertain, but if they are without him this weekend then I’m more than confident that Indianapolis can win this game by at least a touchdown. In case you’ve forgotten, earlier this season when these two teams met the Colts took a 23-9 lead into the fourth quarter and completely dominated the Texans in Houston only to crumble in the 4th quarter. They gave up two touchdowns in less than two minutes and allowed Houston to kick the game winning field goal in overtime. This is something that us spectators have forgotten about, but you can bet your dollar bills that the Colts have not, and they’ll be more than prepared to get revenge for that collapse this weekend.
Indianapolis might not have the best defense or secondary in the league, but in the last couple weeks this team has gotten it together. In the last three weeks they’re giving up an average of 229 yards passing per game (15th). This might not seem that impressive, but it is nearly 50 yards less than the 273 yards per game average they are giving up this season (28th). But to be completely candid, none of this really matters. Why? Because they’ll be facing Brock Osweiler this weekend. I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, Osweiler is garbage. His passer rating of 74.2 ranks him 31st in the league amongst all quarterbacks. While his 9 yards per completion is the lowest in the entire league. Last season the Texans used a carousel of quarterbacks and were surprisingly successful, but this season Osweiler has the Texans offense one of three teams in the league averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. On top of all of this, none of you sceptics could even argue he doesn’t have anyone to throw the ball too. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most talented receivers in the entire league and Osweiler has basically rendered him completely ineffective this season. Don’t be surprised when he continues to stink up the Texans offense this weekend, while the Colts defense capitalizes on his inefficiencies.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games versus the AFC
INDIANAPOLIS
- 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 28-13-1 against the spread in their last 42 home games
- 34-16-2 against the spread in their last 62 games after holding opponents below 15 points in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – HOUSTON 19 – COLTS 31
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3.5)
The Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) travel east this weekend to take on the Green Bay Packers (6-6) at Lambeau Field. This is the Packers second straight weekend playing at home, and they’ll need any advantage they can get. Green Bay has to win out the remainder of the season if they have a shot at winning the NFC North title this season. As for Seattle, they’ve got a stranglehold of the NFC West division and are making a bid for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 3.5-point road favourites for this game, with the over/under set at 46 for the game.
Aaron Rodgers has faced more animosity this season than he has in his entire career. He has struggled through the majority of this season but is heating up at the perfect time for the Packers to make a playoff push. In the last two games Rodgers has completed 50 of 69 passing attempts (72%) for 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. You can expect that Seattle will surely challenge the Packers offense, but several factors point towards Green Bay winning a third straight game for the first time this season.
Seattle is banged up. Earl Thomas left Sunday’s game versus the Panthers after a collision with Kam Chancellor in the secondary. It was announced after the game that he suffered a broken leg during the play. This is a major blow to the Seahawks secondary and their hopes of a making a SuperBowl run this season. Thomas is arguably the best safety in the entire league and creates a blanket over this secondary. Steven Terrell immediately replaced Thomas last Sunday, and is expected to be in the lineup again this weekend. Lets get one thing straight, this guy does not deserve to be called a member of “The Legion of Boom”. After Thomas left the game Cam Newton burned Terrell with a 55-yard touchdown pass to Ted Ginn Jr. The longest passing touchdown that Seattle has allowed all season long. Thomas would usually thwart these passing plays, but without him this weekend Aaron Rodgers could tear up the Seahawks. Rodgers can place the football in area’s where most quarterbacks in the league wouldn’t dream of, and his arsenal of receiving weapons are far to vast for Seattle to contain without Thomas. Jordy Nelson, Randell Cobb, and Davante Adams have all been playing great the last couple weeks. Each one of these players are capable of breaking out a long passing play and you can bet that Rodgers is going to target whomever Terrell is covering in this game. If Rodgers can stretch the field and open up the running lanes then the Seahawks will have a strenuous time getting off he field. Green Bay enters this game 2nd in the league on third downs converting 51.22% of the time this season.
The Seahawks offense ran all over Carolina last weekend at home, but the same outcome should not be expected this weekend. Green Bay is one of the best teams in the league this season at shutting down the run. Entering this weekend they’re 9th in the league giving up only 92.9 yards on the ground per game, and have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all year at home. If Green Bay stacks the box and shuts down the Seahawks running lanes then the playing conditions will vastly favour the Packers for this home game. The weather forecast for this matchup is 29 fahrenheit with a 9mph wind expected. It is never easy to win a road game in Lambeau in December, and the conditions look like they’ll greatly favour the Packers this weekend. Seattle is playoff bound, but the Packers aren’t done just yet. This game has huge implications on their season and I’m not expecting they go down without a fight. Packers win and hand Seattle their 4th loss on the road this year.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road favourite
- 2-5 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
- 4-8 against the spread in games played on grass the last three seasons
GREEN BAY
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games in December
- 9-2 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
- 67-41 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992