September has already come and gone. Three weeks of football are in the books and the cream is beginning to rise to the top. As for my predictions, the same cannot be said. In week three I went 2-2 once again to put me at 6-6 for the season. Not exactly where I envisioned myself entering October, but it could be much worse. Both the Colts and Cowboys covered as I expected in week three, while the Steelers and Giants chalked up losses. Lets take a look at some other headlines as we approach week four.
- Man, New England looks good. They absolutely thrashed Houston on Thursday night. This caught me and everyone else in the world off guard. Sitting at 3-0 it looks like the Patriots could be have a perfect record when they welcome Tom Brady back in week five.
- Buffalo put Arizona to bed 33-18 at home and eliminated a fist-full of people from loser pools in week three. After the Cardinals received high praise as SuperBowl contenders entering the season, they’ve started 1-2. Not time to panic just yet as the Rams currently hold first place in the NFC West, and we all know that won’t last.
- The New York Giants should have defeated the Redskins on Sunday. They had plenty of opportunities in the forth quarter to take the lead but costly turnovers and penalties cost them the game. More importantly, NFL Net 1, Josh Norman 0.
- Miami sneaked out a win on Sunday against Cleveland, but lets be honest they should have lost this game. Ryan Tannenhill fumbled the ball inside the Dolphins 50 yard line and Cleveland missed a 46-yard field goal to push the game into overtime. It looks like both these teams will be near the bottom of their perspective divisions come December.
- It’s beginning to look like 2016 is the year of the rookie quarterback. Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemian are 8-1 and have one interception combined. Siemian perhaps has the most impressive performance in week three throwing for 4 touchdowns in Cincinnati.
- Didn’t take long for Aaron Rodgers to heat up on Sunday. He threw for 4 touchdowns in the first half and has returned faith into Packers fans everywhere. It looks like Jordy Nelson is still finding his legs after returning from injury, this team should only get better as the season progresses.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick is the man he’s always been, a turnover machine. He threw 6 interceptions on Sunday including 4 in the forth quarter. Not sure he’s going to have much confidence going forward, I think the Chiefs took that away from him.
- Philadelphia crushed Pittsburgh in the most surprising game of the weekend. I could see the Eagles winning this game but not the way in which they did. Holding the Steelers offense to 3-points is something else. What Jim Schwartz has been able to accomplish in his short time in Philadelphia is impressive. This team is biding to be a top 5 defensive team. Never mind how incredible Carson Wentz has been playing to start his career.
- Speaking of tenacious defensive teams, Minnesota anyone? Doesn’t look like they’ll be missing Teddy Bridgewater or Adrian Peterson as much as everyone thought, so long as this defense continues to play the way they have through three weeks. In Carolina on Sunday they forced Cam Newton into three interceptions and sacked him eight times; incredible.
- Only five teams remain undefeated as we enter week four. The Patriots, Vikings, Eagles, Broncos and Ravens all put their perfect records on the line. It’ll be interesting to see who can continue to widen the gap in their perspective divisions.
DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears (0-3) and Detroit Lions (1-2) square off for the first time this season on Sunday. Chicago will be looking to secure that elusive first victory of the season, while the Lions are aiming to make it seven straight victories against the Bears. Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as 2.5-point home underdogs for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 46.5 points expected.
Chicago is terrible, they’ve got a slue of injuries and their offense has shown us zero proof they know how to score points this season. They’ve failed to eclipse 20 points in the first three weeks, and are averaging only 15-points per game, 30th in the league. The finger can be pointed into a million different directions at this point for Chicago. Their run game has been lacklustre, their passing game is nowhere because to be found and coaching hasn’t helped either in the slightest. Jeremy Langford has been utterly disappointing to start the season for the Bears and after suffering an injury in week three, it looks like Chicago is moving forward with both a backup quarterback and running back. This is by no means the equation for success and it comes as no surprise they sit dead last in the league averaging less the 25 minutes of possession per game this season. Detroit might not have the best defensive team in the league but with Chicago turning the ball over an average of 2 times per game this season, they’ll look good this weekend.
Matthew Stafford doesn’t look to miss Megatron. Through three games he’s thrown for almost 1000 yards, 7 touchdowns and only one interception. He’s got the Lions offense firing on all cylinders and that has to be the focal point of this matchup. Chicago hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. Entering week three the Bears are allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game, (30th) and 27.7 points (24th). Chicago paid big money to Danny Trevathon in the offseason to improve those numbers and with him sidelined indefinitely due to a thumb injury, the Bears defense could really hit rock bottom in the new few weeks. If Chicago was hosting a weak offensive team they might have a chance to secure their first victory of 2016, but it looks like we will see the Bears weaknesses get exposed again this weekend. The Lions enter week three averaging 4.3 yards per carry, (8th) and 27 points per game on offense (5th). Stafford is exceptional at spreading the ball around and it looks like he’s found a new weapon in Marvin Jones. Jones was picked up in the offseason from Cincinnati and in 46 games posted only one game with over 100 yards receiving. With Stafford and Detroit this year Jones already has two 100 yard games, including a monster 200 yard 2 touchdown performance in week two.
Detroit is weak on defense, but Chicago’s offense doesn’t scare anyone. When you consider the Bears defense is crumbling, and the Lions offense has done nothing but score points this year. Detroit should stomps Chicago at Solider field, and extends their streak to seven straight against the Bears.
TRENDS
DETRIOT
- 28-19 against the spread versus Chicago since 1992
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record
- 4-0 against the spread after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
CHICAGO
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing road record
- 6-20-1 against the spread in their last 27 home games
- 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as a home underdog
- 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 28 – BEARS 20
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3.5) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Baltimore Ravens (3-0) look to keep their perfect record in tact when they welcome the Oakland Raiders (2-1) into M&T Bank Stadium. The last time these two opponents clashed in Baltimore was in 2012, the Ravens decimated the Raiders 55-10. This time around it will be Derek Carr starting at quarterback for Oakland, and they’ll be hoping for a different outcome. Baltimore has been listed as 3.5-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 46.5 points expected.
It’s always difficult to bet against Baltimore when they’re playing at home, but I think the Raiders are showing tremendous value this weekend. Oakland last played Baltimore in week two of last season and defeated them 37-33 in the Coliseum. Derek Carr threw a last second touchdown pass to give the Raiders their first victory against Baltimore in five games. I’m expecting we could see a similar outcome again this weekend.
Baltimore might have an unblemished record to start the season but they’ve got to be the weakest team at 3-0 given their path. In the first three weeks the Ravens faced the Bills, Browns and Jaguars. Three opponents that combine for a total of 1-8 record. Its been a cake walk for this team and Oakland will be their first real defensive test. The Raiders enter Baltimore averaging a ridiculous average of 426 total yards of offense per game this year, (2nd) and 26.7 points per game (8th). They have had one of the most unstoppable offensive teams to start the year, and their offensive line is to thank for that. Entering week four the Raiders have allowed a league fewest 2 sacks and only 8 quarterback hits. Their matchup against the Ravens defensive line could easily decide who wins this game, and I’m betting on the Raiders offensive line. In the last two weeks Baltimore has faced very weak offensive lines. Both Jacksonville and Cleveland are inside the top 5 for sacks allowed and quarterback hits, something Oakland knows nothing about. Don’t be shocked when the Raiders offense controls the line of scrimmage, and Derek Carr does just enough to pick up first downs.
Kahlil Mack is officially snake bitten. Through three weeks the man I thought would win defensive MVP has only seven tackles and zero sacks. I’m looking for him to get his mojo back this weekend. Baltimore’s offensive line has been average through three weeks giving up 6 sacks and 20 QB hits. But even worse it has caused their run game to be non-existent. Entering week four they’re averaging only 3.2 yards per carry (30th), and 82 yards per game (26th). While it’s easy to point the finger at Oakland and argue their run defense has been poor this season, I’m expecting it to improve and Baltimore is a great place to start. Mack has yet to impose his will on a game and given the Jaguars success in week three at pressuring Joe Flacco, I’m expecting this weekend he breaks out. Raiders sneak out a victory and hand Baltimore their first loss of the 2016 season.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 road games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning home record
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road
BALTIMORE
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as favourites between 3.5-10 points
- 2-9-1 against the spread in their last 12 home games
- 3-12-2 against the spread in their last 17 games as a favourite
- 0-5 against the spread versus AFC West opponents the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 26 – RAVENS 24
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-8)
The Arizona Cardinals (1-2) are set to play their first divisional game this season when they welcome the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) into University of Phoenix Stadium this weekend. Last season the Rams were able to come into Arizona and defeat the Cardinals 24-22. Look for Bruce Arians and this Cardinals coaching staff to do everything in their power to ensure a repeat doesn’t happen this season. As for the Rams, if they secure a victory this weekend they’ll grab an early stranglehold of the NFC West division. Oddsmakers have listed Arizona as 8-point home favourites with a total set of 43-points in only their second home game of the season.
If you told me entering the season that after four weeks Arizona would be tied for last place in the NFC West, and the Los Angeles Rams would sit in sole possession of first, I would have called you a fabricator. After the way Los Angeles face planted into 2016 getting shut out 28-0 in San Francisco week one, it would have been hard to see them at 2-1. Well, I can guarantee you one thing this weekend, its a fat chance they beat Arizona. The Cardinals have had a rough start to the regular season and already find themselves amidst a must win game. Lucky for Cardinals fans they’ll return home for their third home game of the 2016 season, and that might be all the edge they need to bury the Rams. Since the beginning of the 2014 season Arizona has a 15-4 record at home including the post-season, and in the 15 victories have won by an average of 12 points per contest. But it isn’t just the offense that plays better when behind their home crowd, their defense has been stout too. Dating back to 2012 the Cardinals defense is averaging 2 turnovers per game when playing at home. It’ll be tough for the Rams to compete on both sides of the ball this weekend.
St. Louis had a good performance in week three against Tampa Bay but don’t let that game fool you. In weeks one and two their offense combined for a total of 9 points and zero touchdowns. Its no secret their offense has struggled to score points and if you look at last weeks performance in Tampa bay they would have lost without scoring a defensive touchdown. Given the struggles they’ve had to run the ball this season and Arizona having one of the best secondaries in all of football, Case Keenum could turn into Mr. Interception on Sunday. Entering this weekend Kennum is one of five quarterback that has more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) this season while the Rams offense is averaging the fewest total yards per game (262) in the entire league. Arizona should have no problem holding the Rams down this weekend and remind everyone why this same team made the NFC conference championships last season.
TRENDS
LOS ANGELES
- 0-3-1 against the spread after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
- 1-3 against the spread in the last three seasons as a road underdog of 7.5-10 points
- 1-3 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
ARIZONA
- 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games following an against the spread loss
- 3-1 against the spread versus the Rams the last two seasons
- 22-11 agains the spread versus the Rams since 1992
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 13 – CARDINALS 31
DENVER BRONCS (-2.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) welcome the SuperBowl champion Denver Broncos (3-0) into Raymond James Stadium this weekend. Denver looks to extend their winning streak to 9 games dating back to last season. While Tampa Bay is aiming to win their first home game since week 13 of last season. The last time these two met was in 2012 in Denver, where the Broncos secured a 31-23 record. This time Tampa Bay is listed as 2.5-point home underdogs, with the over/under set at 44 points for this game.
Trevor Siemien. Trevor Siemien. Trevor Siemien. I’ll admit, I thought going into the regular season that the Broncos were toast after all the defensive players they lost in the offseason, and the fact they let Brock Oswieler walk. But hey, what do I know. Denver hasn’t lost a step since winning it all last season, and their defense should continue to terrorize this weekend. Entering week four the Broncos are limiting opponents to an average of 4.6 yards per play, (4th) and 19 points per game (8th). When we consider the Broncos have faced the Panthers, Colts and Bengals to start the year, these numbers are incredibly impressive. They’ve been able to stop some of the best offensive teams in the league this season, and I’m expecting Tampa Bay to be a cake walk. The Buccaneers have only one rushing touchdown to start the season, and that doesn’t bode well when you’re facing one of the best secondaries in the league. Jameis Winston has thrown 6 interception already this season, including 4 against a Cardinals team in week two. He’s got the talent to become a incredible quarterback in this league, but Denver is going to be the toughest defense team he’s faced all season. Unless his offensive line finds a solution to Von Miller, Winston is going to take a beating in this game and the nearly 3 turnovers per game (2nd most) they average this season will surely be reached by Denver.
I would have guessed that the Broncos offense would take a big step back this season, yet through three weeks they’re averaging 28 points per game, 4th most in the league. Trevor Siemien has gotten plenty of help from the Broncos defense, but for a rookie you can’t deny his early success. Last weekend he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first road game. He made the Bengals defense look like a slice of ham. Doing the same against Tampa Bay wouldn’t be shocking. The Buccaneers enter this weekend allowing an average of 4 touchdowns per game, (31st) and a league high 33.7 points per game.Denver has the best offensive line that Tampa Bay has seen all season and their ability to connect with the deep ball largely tips the scale. Tampa Bay has allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or longer, and a league worst 6 plays of 40 yards or more this season. All signs point towards Denver winning this game and improving to 4-0 this season.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 7-3 against the spread in the last two season when the line is between -3 and +3
- 2-0 against the spread versus NFC South opponents the last three seasons
- 5-1 against the spread in October games the last three seasons
TAMPA BAY
- 5-12 against the spread in home games the last three seasons
- 1-4 against the spread in home games as an underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
- 8-24-1 against the spread in their last 33 games as home underdogs