Week three we witnessed 75% of favourites win outright, with 62% of those also covering the spread. It was the highest scoring weekend we have seen all season with seven teams scoring 30 points or more. Which surely turned those bettors that took the over into big winners. While those of you who took my predictions onto betting slips also went to the bank! I went a perfect 4-0 for the first time this season with the Bengals, Patriots, Cardinals and Steelers all finding ways to cover their perspective spreads. That brings my overall record on the season up to 8-4, with a perfect 4-0 record in games which I assign a loot value of 750 or higher on this season. But thats enough gloating. Here’s a little recap of what you might have missed from last weekend and where my heart lies with this weekends point-spreads.
- Another one bites the dust. Thats what Pittsburgh Steelers fans are thinking. Ben Roethlisburger suffered a nasty below the knee hit and looks to be out at least a couple weeks. Antonio Brown fans everywhere can and should be worried
- Atlanta’s offense looked unstoppable once again thanks to the Matt Ryan – Julio Jones connection. Jones has 440 yards receiving already and with Pittsburgh losing Roethlisburger, Antonio Brown should be no match for Julio to win the receiving yards title. So long as he can stay healthy.
- Andrew Luck once again looked like crap. Through three games he has seven interceptions (two more than touchdown passes), and I’m at a loss for words. It is no longer the sophomore slump, it is now officially the senior slump.
- Oakland is 2-1. Yes, you read that correctly. The Raiders are above .500 after three games.
- The Patriots scored 51 points on Sunday bringing their total on the season up to 119 Points. At this rate they will break their scoring records set in 2007.
- New Orleans fell to 0-3 without Drew Brees, and the Saints season is already looking over. Could this be the last year we see the Drew Brees/Sean Payton connection end?
- The Eagles finally won. No it wasn’t pretty – and no I’m not convinced they are any better.
- Arizona is in my mind the best team in the NFL right now. They smashed San Francisco in the mouth and broke a record for the two fastest pick-6s in NFL history. Once again, I believe Seattle will be dethroned in the NFC West this season.
- Aaron Rodgers reminded us why you don’t be against him and the Packers in Lambeau. They improved to 3-0 and Rodgers completed 24/35 passes for 333 yards and 5 touchdowns. Don’t look twice, Rodgers is already making a case to be MVP in a second straight season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) travel east this weekend to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) in Paul Brown Stadium. With this matchup set to kick-off at 1PM EST the Chiefs will be looking to end a two game losing skid in their second of back-to-back road games. While the Bengals aim to remain undefeated on the season and continue to climb the power rankings. Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati as 3.5-point home favourites for this game, with a total set at 44.
The Chiefs came out flat on monday night against the Packers. While they eventually battled back in garbage time, Kansas City fans should be worried. Alex Smith couldn’t complete a pass over 10 yards and routinely settled for short check-down passes. They abandoned the run game early and that is never good when your best player is Jamal Charles. It was ugly and I have no reason to believe that this won’t happen again this weekend against a well rounded Bengals team.
Cincinnati is a terrific team playing at home. They are 15-2-1 since the 2013 season and have taken down some extremely talented teams across that span (Denver, New England, Green Bay). While some of you might argue the Chiefs can rely on Charles and their defense to keep this game close, consider this – Cincinnati is 5th in the league after three weeks giving up only 77 yards rushing per game. They haven’t allowed a rush over 40 yards all season, and are one of four teams remaining yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Charles might be one of the best in the league at carrying the rock but the Bengals defense looks to be one of his toughest match-ups yet this season.
Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL on third downs. Through three weeks they have converted only 5 of 30 attempts, or 17 percent of the time. This is a serious problem and a should be a big red flag for all you considering betting on the Chiefs this weekend. Cincinnati is 11th in league allowing just over four third down conversions per game, and sit 8th allowing only 18 first downs per game. Expect Alex Smith to be on the hot seat again this weekend. Kansas City is dead-last in the league allowing nearly 5 sacks per game. All indications points towards Cincinnati staying undefeated on the season this weekend.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 0-6 off straight up non-conference loss versus an opponents off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins
- 1-6 after a monday night game
- 1-4 against the spread after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
CINCINNATI
- 16-5-1 against the spread in their last 22 home games
- 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 home games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 9-2 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 825
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 14 – BENGALS 31
NEW YORK GIANTS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-5)
The New York Giants (1-2) travel north this weekend to take on the Bills (2-1) in Buffalo for the first time since 2007. Giants fans will be looking for their team to capture a second victory in a row after having nearly two weeks of rest. While the Bills are hopeful to start 3-1 for the first time since 2011. Oddsmakers have listed Buffalo as 5-point favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 46.5 points.
Its been a serious case of hot-cold-hot for Buffalo this season. They won week one by 13 points, lost week two by 8 points, and won this past weekend by 27 points and convincing fashion. While I don’t expect them to repeat quite the performance this weekend, they should have no problems chalking up their third win of the season. Very few offensive teams are capable of making a mockery of Buffalo’s secondary and New York isn’t one of them. In two road games this season they are averaging less than 200 yards passing per outing. While the fact that Eli is one of the few quarterbacks remaining in the league through three weeks that has yet to throw an interception makes me giddy. Buffalo is 3rd in the league with 5 interceptions already this season. Lets not forget Eli closed out last season with 14 total interceptions, tied for 8th most in the league. All I can say is don’t be surprised if the Bills secondary picks him off more than once this weekend.
Expect Buffalo to have yet another explosive offensive performance this weekend. New York has one of the most banged up secondary’s in the entire league. They sit dead last allowing an average of 32 completions and 335 total passing yards per game this season. While Tyrod Taylor is by no means a top ten quarterback in this league, he has shown he isn’t afraid to test opposing teams cornerbacks. Through three weeks he has 13 completions of 20 yards or longer and sits 4th in the league averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt. If he is able to connect with a couple deep balls this weekend and give his team a lead then the Bills defense should be capable of putting the rest to bed.
The Giants sit 32nd in the league scoring on only 27% of their time in the red-zone. They have clearly struggled with proper play calling and coaching decisions through three weeks and there will be zero room for that this weekend. Buffalo is one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in and it shows. Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread at home in their last five match-ups dating back to last season.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 2-5 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record
- 2-6 against the spread versus non-conference opponents the last three seasons
BUFFALO
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games overall
- 6-2 against the spread after allowing more than 350 total yards in the previous game
- Rex Ryan is 7-1 as a favourite off a straight up win versus opponents of a straight up win
LOOT VALUE – 725
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 16 – BILLS 34
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7)
The San Diego Chargers (1-2) return home this weekend to take on the Cleveland Browns (1-2). They will be looking to end a two game losing skid, while the Browns will aim to capture their first road victory of the season. Oddsmakers have listed the Chargers as 7-point hometown favourites, with a total set of 45.5 points.
If the Oakland Raiders can make the Cleveland Browns defense look pathetic at home. I’m excited to see what the Chargers offense is capable of accomplishing at home in a must win situation. Cleveland is close to dead last in nearly every critical defensive statistic this season. They are allowing over 6 yards per play (29th), nearly 7 third down conversions for game (28th) and teams to average close to 400 total yards of offense per game (28th). It shouldn’t be a surprise if San Diego puts up a number here.
If the Browns don’t sail a tight ship this weekend Philip Rivers is going to tear them apart. Dating back to last season he has lead the Chargers to a 6-3 home record, and scored over 30 points in 4 of those 9 games. Last season they embarrassed a similar New York Jets team 31-0 in Qualcomm Stadium in week five. I’m looking for a similar result again this weekend. San Diego enters this weekend 4th in the league averaging over 400 yards of offense per game, and nearly 34 minutes of time of possession per game (3rd best in the league). All despite a 1-2 record to start the season. This game has huge implications for the Chargers if they want to say close within the AFC West, their play should foreshadow that.
Who’s starting at quarterback for Cleveland this weekend? If you have to ask yourself such a question for any team, it’s probably in your best interest to be betting against them. For this matchup it shouldn’t really matter who starts behind center. Cleveland has struggled to start the season in protection no matter who is standing back there. Through three weeks they are 4th in the league with 10 sacks allowed. It’s going to be a very trying afternoon for Browns fans. Expect a blow-out this weekend in San Diego.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 1-4 against the spread after allowing 250 yards passing or more in their previous game
- 4-7 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 0-4 against the spread where the road total is between 42.5-45 the last three seasons
SAN DEIGO
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 4
- 11-4 against the spread after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game
- 35-16 in their last 51 home games as a favourite of 3.5-10 points
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 6 – CHARGERS 29
ST. LOUIS RAMS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7)
The St. Louis Rams (1-2) hit the road this weekend to take on the Arizona Cardinals (3-0) in their first of back-to-back road games. While Arizona looks to extend their win streak to four and their home unbeaten streak to three. Oddsmakers have listed the Cardinals as 7-point home favourites for this divisional matchup, with a total set of 42.5.
For a second consecutive weekend I’m advising you to bet on the Rams losing, and the Cardinals winning. Why the line is set at only 7-points is beyond me. I look at St. Louis and think – isn’t this team just a clone of the 49ers minus a mobile quarterback and slightly improved defense? All I know is the Cardinals secondary is going to be feasting for a second consecutive weekend. They have seven interceptions through three weeks. Yes, you read that correctly, SEVEN. Sam Bradford might be the worst quarterback they have faced all season. Why oddsmakers don’t think they will pick him off just as easily this weekend I do not know. St. Louis enters this weekend 29th in the league averaging only 203 yards passing per game, and have thrown only two passing touchdowns all season.
St. Louis might have one of the best pass rushing defensive teams in the league, but that shouldn’t matter in this game. The Cardinals offensive line has been impenetrable through three weeks giving up only one sack. Palmer has been operating in the pocket like it is Fort Knox. Nobody has been able to touch him and the early result has been the rejuvenation of Larry Fitzgerald’s career. Last season Fitzgerald had only 784 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Through three games this season he already has 333 yard and five touchdowns. Big things are going to continue to happen on this offense if Palmer gets the protection. While I expect the Rams to give them their toughest battle yet, it won’t be enough to keep this one close.
Arizona hasn’t just been good to start the season, they have been great. In their first three games they have outscored opponents by an average of 25-points, while totalling 126 points. At this rate they would score nearly 700 points! This surely won’t happen but with Bruce Arians looking like the best coach in the league and Carson Palmer at the helm, its hard to imagine anyone stopping the Cardinals. We quickly forget but this same team started 6-0 last season under Palmer until he was injured. They then carried on to a respectable 11-3 under Drew Stanton and it wasn’t until Stanton got injured and back-back-up Ryan Lindlay started that they lost their final two games of the season. Magical things are happening for this team right now. It’s time we all jump aboard and start earning some cash off an extremely talented Cardinals team that I feel oddsmakers are seriously undervaluing.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 1-8 as underdogs in weeks 1-4 off back-to-back straight up against the spread losses
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games overall
- 4-9 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three years
ARIZONA
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 20-8 against the spread versus conference opponents the last three seasons
- 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games following an against the spread win
- 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 home games