Four weeks have come and gone, if you blinked you might have missed the first quarter of the 2016 season because man it went by fast! As for my predictions, I’m at 8-8 as we roll into the second quarter. I’ve finished 2-2 in each week to begin the season, maybe I can change that trend this weekend. But before we hop, skip, and jump into week five; lets take a look at the important headlines from week 4 and the 2016 season to this point.
- Last Thursday Cincinnati smashed Miami 22-7. Many people expected the Bengals to win this game, myself included. But the limelight shines brighter on this Dolphins team than the Bengals. Miami is in a world of hurt starting 1-3 (might I say luckily as well, they should have lost against Cleveland) and Ryan Tannenhill hasn’t done anything this season. He’s shown no real strengths, and has gotten more than enough of chance to prove himself in this league. It might only be week five, but change is coming in Miami.
- Jacksonville finally won a game. They defeated Indianapolis 30-27 in London on Sunday morning in a game that probably nobody watched. Andrew Luck could easily be one of the best in this league but his protection is terrible. The seat has to be getting hot for Chuck Pagano at this point.
- Cleveland remains the last team in the regular season to find a victory. At 0-4 they are on track to be the worst team in the league again this season. Get your brown bags out Cleveland, New England is coming to town this weekend with a fresh Tom Brady.
- Buffalo knocked off the Patriots in New England and it wasn’t even close. At 16-0 the Bills became the first team to shut out the Patriots at home in Bill Belichick coaching history.
- How about Julio Jones and Atlanta. They combined for 300 yards and one touchdown on Sunday. While becoming the first wide receiver/quarterback tandem to combine for over 500 yards passing and 300 receiving in history. It’s about time we stopped sleeping on the Falcons and started believing this team could win the NFC South this year.
- Derek Carr lead the Raiders to a 4th quarter comeback and has his name as a frontrunner for MVP early this season. Oakland is 3-1 and are in great position to go to 4-1 this weekend as the host San Diego.
- Denver smashed Tampa Bay 27-7 and they didn’t even finish this game, it was called off with less than 7 minutes remaining after an extended rain delay. They find themselves one of three teams perfect through four weeks but the real test comes this weekend against a red hot Falcons offense.
- Whats going on with the Cardinals. After having huge expectations to enter the season they dropped another turd on Sunday losing against the Rams. They now sit at the bottom of the NFC West and have a long ways to go if they’re going to salvage their season.
- The Steelers got slapped around by Philadelphia in week three and returned the favour on Sunday by slapping around the Kansas City Chiefs. At half-time this game was 29-0 and all but over. Pittsburgh looks primed to go deep this season as they welcomed back Le’Veon Bell for the remainder of the year.
- Its about time we start giving Minnesota the respect the deserve. After losing Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson several analysts labelled them as down and out, yet they just keep winning. At 4-0 they have the best record in the NFC and have made a case as the best defensive team in all of football. I can’t wait to see how the next twelve weeks turn out for this team, dare I say SuperBowl contenders?
HOUSTON TEXANS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5)
The Minnesota Vikings (4-0) are set to host the Houston Texans (3-1) in U.S Bank Stadium this Sunday. The last time these two met was in 2012 in Houston, where the Vikings smashed the Texans 23-6. Houston will surely be looking for a different outcome this time around, while the Vikings aim to improve their record to a perfect 4-0 all time against Houston. Oddsmakers have listed the Vikings as 5.5-point home favourites, with a total set of 40 points expected.
Its about time we began riding on the coattail of the Minnesota Vikings. Entering week five I think Minnesota has the best defensive team in all of football. Yes, all of football. Entering this weekend they have 15 sacks, 11 turnovers, and are limiting teams to an average of 12.5 points per game (2nd). This is extremely impressive considering in the last three weeks they’ve faced the Packers, Panthers and Giants; three pro-bowl quarterbacks that combine for three SuperBowl rings and the last two MVP awards. With all that they’ve accomplished against legitimate quarterbacks in the last three weeks, I can’t help but think Brock Osweiler is toast this weekend. Osweiler was paid in the off-season to jumpstart the Texans offense, and so far he has failed miserably. In four weeks Houston is 29th in the league averaging 17.2 points per game, 31st scoring less than two touchdowns per game, and 26th turning over the ball an average of two times per game. With Osweiler at the helm this Texans offense has seemingly gotten worse. I can’t help but see Osweiler as a poor mans Alex Smith. Check, check, check-down machine this season.
How Osweiler is expected to keep Houston within 6-points in this game is beyond baffling to me. He’s received zero supporting from the running game all year. In four games the Texans have yet to score a rushing touchdown, a single one. Their backfield has been riddled with injuries and disappointing performances to this point, and I’m just not sure anyone can beat this Vikings defense without having a complete offense. DeAndrea Hopkins and Will Fuller will be the best receiving corps that Minnesota has seen this year, but without being able to run the ball the Vikings secondary will be able to lock these guys down all day. Look for Xavier Rhodes to play a big part in shutting down the Texans offense. He is quietly making a case as one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the league. In the last two weeks he held Calvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham Jr to a combined 3 catches for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns while recording one interception.
Sam Bradford is quietly putting together a fantastic season. He is one of three quarterbacks left this season without an interception and is completing a 69.5% of his passes, fewer than only Matt Ryan out of starting quarterbacks through four weeks. At this point in the season it looks like he is proving worth the 1st round draft pick Minnesota gave up to get him. Houston does have a strong defensive team, but the mismatch lies between the Vikings ability to pressure the quarterback and the Texans one directional offense. J.J Watt is a huge loss for Houston for the remainder of the season, if Tennessee can put up 20 points against the Texans defense in his first game missed, then nothing makes me believe Minnesota can’t do the same.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 6-16 against the spread in dome games the last three seasons
- 11-17 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games in week 5
MINNESOTA
- 28-9 against the spread in all games the last three seasons
- 8-1 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
- 10-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 8-0 against the spread at home in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning record
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 13 – VIKINGS 23
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Cleveland Browns (0-4) look to win their first game of the regular season this weekend as they welcome the New England Patriots (3-1) into town. New England is coming off their first loss of the season and got shut-out, but the good news is Tom Brady is back. As for Cleveland they’re looking for back-to-back victories against the Patriots at home. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 9.5-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 46.5 points expected.
New England is going to blow the roof off First Energy Stadium this weekend, because Tom Brady is BACK. Without Brady in the first four weeks New England managed to go 3-1 and average 20 points per game. With Brady back this Patriots offense is going to anamorph into a juggernaut this weekend. All the pieces are in place for immediate success once Brady steps onto the field and facing Cleveland is going to make it only easier to find his footing. The Browns are the only team yet to win this season and it looks like they’ll have to wait another week for that to happen. With Cleveland is allowing an average of 28.8 points per game (27th) this season, which makes me believe seeing Tom Brady reach four touchdowns and 300 passing yards in his first game back wouldn’t be shocking. Quite frankly this spread cannot be big enough, go ahead and make New England 14-point favourites, I’ll take the Patriots all day.
No should come as no surprise that through three weeks the Browns have deployed three different quarterbacks with rookie Cody Kessler most recently grabbing the reins. In two starts Kessler has an average QBR of 46.8 to go along with one touchdown and one interception. Not terrible, but we all know New England is in a different league than Miami or Washington. They enter this game allowing only 15.2 points per game (4th) and have an easy task in simply shutting down the Browns rushing attack. If they slow down Isiah Crowell, Cody Kessler will be left to lift the Browns to victory, and we all know that won’t happen. The Patriots rarely concede back-to-back losses and we should be reminded of that on Sunday, expect this one to be over by half-time.
TRENDS
NEW ENGLAND
- 7-2 against the spread in weeks 5 through 9 the last three seasons
- 38-17-1 against the spread in their last 56 games following a straight up loss
- 4-1 against the spread after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
CLEVELAND
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a home underdog
- 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games as an underdog
- 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games following an against the spread losss
FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 34 – BROWNS 14
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS (-3)
The Oakland Raiders (3-1) and San Diego Chargers (1-3) are set to meet for the first time this season this weekend. The last time these divisional rivals met was week 16 of last season where Sebastian Janikowski nailed a 31-yard field goal in overtime to give the Raiders as 23-20 victory at home. Raiders fans are surely hoping for a similar outcome, while San Diego is looking to win in Oakland for the first time since 2013. Oddsmakers have listed Oakland as 3-point home favourites, with a total set of 49.5 points expected.
Sitting at 1-3 the Chargers season could look a lot different. Many could say this same team should be 3-1. They blew a massive lead in week one against Kansas City, and lost by one-point last weekend against New Orleans. But thats football, and I don’t think they’ve got the pieces in place to challenge this Raiders team this weekend. San Diego has been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball and they continue to pile up, it was announced this week that starting defensive back Jason Verret suffered a partially torn ACL and is done for the remainder of the season. Adding the 2015 Pro Bowler to the slew of injuries San Diego has, and you can easily piece together that Oakland should win this game.
After blowing a leading last weekend against the Ravens in the forth quarter I thought Oakland was done, but boy was I wrong. Derek Carr drove this offense all the way down the field and put up 6 to give Oakland their third victory of the season. It’s not a question of whether or not the Raiders defense can withstand the test of this Chargers high octane offense, but whether the Chargers defensive line can even compete with the Raiders offensive line. Entering this weekend the Raiders have the best offensive line in football, in week four they didn’t allow a single sack or knock down of Derek Carr. Everything seems to be trending upwards for the Raiders and I don’t think San Diego has the necessary defense to compete. They’re allowing the 24th most point in the league per game (27) and allowing teams to score touchdowns 81.25% of the time when they enter the red-zone (29th). These same weaknesses just so happen to be Oakland’s strengths. The Raiders enter week five scoring 27 points per game, (7th) and have the best offense in football once they enter the red-zone scoring touchdowns 90.91% of the time (1st).
This game could very well turn into a shootout, but I’ll take the home team and the better defensive line all day. Kahlil Mack recorded his first sack of the season last weekend, and is only getting warmed up. Oakland should have no problem earning their first victory at home this weekend, and hand San Diego their third consecutive loss in doing so.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- 8-20-2 against the spread in their last 30 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games in October
- 4-9 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
OAKLAND
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games
- 3-1 against the spread versus San Diego the last three seasons
- 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games versus the AFC
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 23 – RAIDERS 29
NEW YORK GIANTS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
The New York Giants (2-2) travel north this weekend to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Lambeau Field. Green Bay should be well rested as they come off their bye week and last played 14 days ago. While New York is hoping they can end a two game losing skid in Wisconsin, and hand the Packers their first home loss this season. Oddsmakers are expecting a blow-out with the Packers favoured by 6.5-points in this game.
Green Bay has had plenty of time to prepare for this game, and lick their injury wounds. While New York is coming into this weekend on a short week of rest after playing in Minnesota on Monday night. We can all recall that the Giants got spanked in that game by the Vikings defense, and nothing shows me that the same thing won’t happen again this weekend. Odell Beckham has been the focal point of all sports talk shows the week with his antics and comments from Minnesota, and I’m not sure they can afford to have this happen as they enter one of the toughest stadiums in football. New York is already dealing with the loss of starting runningback Rashad Jennings (Thumb) and starting tight end Larry Donnell, (concussion) Odell can’t be making this about himself. Ben McAdoo is in his first season as head coach but it looks likes he’s already losing the locker room. New York has the weapons to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but they’ve put up nothing but disappointing outings all season. Their losing streak currently sits at two games, but that’ll surely become three after facing a well rested high scoring Packers team.
Aaron Rodgers hushed critics in week three as he slung four touchdown passes in the first quarter against Detroit. While the Giants secondary has been better this season, they’re still missing both their starting cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and rookie Eli Apple to injury. With that being said It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the Giants are going to struggle to contain Jordy Nelson and the rest of this Packers offense. If New York has any chance to keep this game close OBJ has to start having “fun” and the Giants have got to eclipse the 30-point mark, two things I’m doubtful can happen with only 5 days rest.
Turnover margin should be at the forefront of this matchup. New York enters 27th offensively turning the ball over an average of 2.2 times per game, and 31st in the league with only one takeaway all season. With numbers like this the Packers defense should have no problems forcing turnovers and hand the ball off to Aaron Rodgers to do the rest. I’m not sure I see a single scenario out there where the Giants win this game, its just a question of how much the Packers win by.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 0-3 against the spread versus NFC North opponents the last three seasons
- 4-8 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning home record
GREEN BAY
- 11-2 against the spread in the last three seasons off a win against a divisional rival
- 6-2 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 19-9-1 against the spread in their last 29 games as a home favourite
- 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games following their bye week