Well, week four was arguably the toughest week to predict yet this season. Seven of Thirteen games on Sunday ended with the underdog either covering the spread or winning outright. Looking ahead to this weekend only four undefeated teams remain. The Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Atlanta Falcons. Looking back at my predictions last weekend I finished a dismal 1-3. Only Cincinnati was able to cover the spread while San Diego, Arizona and Buffalo all failed to cover the spread. Going into this weekend my official record sits at 9-7 for the season, but I am still an impressive 5-2 in games which I assign a loot value of .750 or higher. Here’s a little recap of last week before I dive into who I like entering this weekend.
- The Jets improved to 3-1 on the season defeating Miami in London. It didn’t even take 24 hours for the Dolphins to announce they fired head coach Joe Philbin. Akward 12-hour flight home anyone?
- Jacksonville’s kicker became the second kicker this week to miss two game winning field goals in the final minutes. Josh Scobee did it on thursday, he’s already without a job. Tough loss for Jags fans, they could have actually been leading the AFC South through four weeks.
- Atlanta 4-0? Carolina 4-0? The NFC South is shaping up to be one of the best divisions in football. Big improvement from last season where nobody finished above .500.
- The Giants snagged another victory and Eli lasted another game without an interception. Lets not forget the Giants could easily be 4-0 right now. My quarterly report has them easily winning the NFC East this season.
- Chip Kelly and the Eagles dropped to 1-3. The hole isn’t that big considering the divisional leader is 2-2, but I can’t help but think Kelly is in luke warm water here and it’s only getting hotter.
- Arizona fell to 3-1 suffering their first loss of the season against St. Louis. The Rams held them to 22-points, their lowest total of the season. I still don’t know what to think about the Rams this season. One week they look great, the next week like garbage.
- Dallas fell to 0-2 without Tony Romo. But at this point it looks like they have more problems on the defensive side of the ball. With New England, the New York Giants, and Seattle the next three teams they face. Dallas could easily find themselves 2-5 entering week 8.
ST. LOUIS RAMS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5)
The St. Louis Rams (2-2) travel north this weekend to take on the undefeated Packers (4-0) at Lambeau field. The Rams are looking to win for back-to-back weekends for only the second time in the last two seasons. While the Packers are looking to extend their win streak to five games and increase their NFC North divisional lead. Oddsmakers have made Green Bay 8.5-point home favourites for this matchup with a total set of 46-points.
Which St. Louis team are we going to see this weekend? The one that is capable of beating Arizona and Seattle? Or the one that loses against a Steelers team with a back-up quarterback in, or the below average Redskins team? It’s a coin flip at this point in the season, but I’m banking on seeing the poor mans Rams this weekend. St. Louis does not have a great record of tying back-to-back performances together and Green Bay has been unstoppable this season. They beat both Seattle and Kansas by 10-points at home already this season, and both of those teams are just as strong if-not better defensive teams. Cleaning up the Rams by 9 or more points should be a breeze this weekend.
Its been 3 years or 512 passing attempts since Aaron Rodgers last threw an interception at Lambeau field. Yet, I feel like the public forgets just how good this Packers team is at home. Dating back to last season Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in seven of ten home games, are undefeated, and have won by an average margin of 17.5 points. Plus they are the most sure-handed team in the league this season. Through four weeks they have turned the ball over only once. With St. Louis being a team that thrives off turnovers, I’m expecting things to get ugly for Rams fans. Green Bay rarely turns the ball over in bunches, and thats just what the Rams will need to win this game.
Clock-management will be key if St. Louis hopes to keep this game close. The Rams will need to get their run game going and keep Rodgers off the field. Only then they will have a shot at keeping this game close. Again, I just don’t see that happening. Green Bay is far to good at home and if they jump out to quick lead again this weekend the Rams will be forced into abandoning the run to save clock and come back. We witnessed Kansas City in this exact scenario two weeks ago in Lambeau. They ran the ball one time in the entire second half. Yes, one time. If the Rams get themselves into this situation expect Green Bay to cruise to victory. They are the 7th best passing defense in the league through four weeks allowing less than 200 yards per game, and have given up only four passing touchdowns all season (4th best in the league). Don’t be surprised if the Packers run away with this game. It definitely doesn’t hurt that the favourite is 8-0 against the spread in the last 8 meetings between these teams.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win
- 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games following an against the spread win
- 0-4 against the spread off a win against the divisional rival the last three seasons
GREEN BAY
- 5-1 against the spread as a home favourite between 7.5-10 points the last three seasons
- 45-22-1 against the spread in their last 78 games as a favourite
- 5-0 against the spread in their last five games after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 13 – PACKERS 33
CHICAGO BEARS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) aim to end a three game losing streak when they welcome the Chicago Bears (1-3) into town this weekend. The Chiefs currently find themselves last place in a tough AFC West division and this marks a do-or-die game for them. As for the Bears, they finally clinched their first victory this past weekend and are looking to prove they are not the worst team in the league. Oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 8.5-point favourites for this Sunday afternoon matchup with a total set of 44.5-points.
Yet another big home favourite I’m banking on to win this weekend. Kansas City has been spiralling out of control after their week two fourth quarter collapse against Denver, and I’m looking for them to turn their luck around this weekend. Lets just take a look at who the Chiefs have faced the last three weeks – Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati. These are THREE of the FOUR undefeated teams remaining in the league. Denver has arguably the best defense in the league this year with a declining hall of fame quarterback. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league at the present time. While the Bengals have what some of labelled to be the best all around team in the entire league. But the tough stretch is now over, they return home to take on a Bears team that has performed extremely poorly on the road the last three seasons. They are 6-11 since 2013 when playing away from home and face a Chiefs team this weekend with something to prove. Don’t be surprised if the Bears offensive possessions result in punt-punt-punt-punt-punt once again this weekend.
Remember when Kansas City was 1-2 last season and returned home to take on the Patriots? Everyone and their grandmother was betting on New England to easily take down the Chiefs. Instead Kansas City won 41-14 and reminded us just how lethal they can be at home. Arrowhead stadium is one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in and Jay Cutler has never been a quarterback that has thrived under road pressure. He is 1-5 in his last six games on the road and has thrown seven interceptions across that same span. With Kansas City forcing 22 turnovers at home since the 2013 season the Bears are in deep water this weekend.
Kansas City has been terrible on third downs this season but they improved that number tremendously this past weekend. They converted over 43% in Cincinnati and that number should only improve this weekend. Chicago is 30th in the NFL allowing team to convert third downs over 45% of the time this season. If Alex Smith can refrain from turning the ball over this weekend and Jamal Charles can remain a big part of this offense throughout the game the Chiefs should cruise to a blow-out victory. Chicago has lost their last five road games by an average of 23-points per game dating back to last season. All I’m saying is don’t hesitate to get your tomahawks out this weekend.
TRENDS
CHICAGO
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games following an against the spread win
- 19-38 against the spread in their last 59 games against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
- 8-16 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons
KANSAS CITY
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 home games
- 3-1 against the spread in the last three seasons as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 8-4 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 12-0 at home versus below .500 opponents coming off a straight up loss in weeks 5-9
- 9-0 as non-divisional favourites of 8-points or more
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – BEARS 6 – CHIEFS 24
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3)
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) welcome the Seattle Seahawks (2-2) into Paul Brown Stadium this weekend. With kick-off scheduled for 1PM EST Seattle fans are hoping the Seahawks can win their third straight game. While the Bengals could remain undefeated and take a three game lead in the AFC North if things fall into place this weekend. Oddsmakers are expecting a close result in this game listing Cincinnati as 3-point home favourites, with a total set of 43-points.
Bengals only 3-point home favourites? It might not seem like it, but something is wrong here. Seattle WAS the best team in the league the last two years, but they have been far from that this season. Entering this game their defense is 2nd best in the league giving up an average of 278 yards per game, but I still don’t believe they are deserving of such a high ranking. Three of four opponents they have faced this season (St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit) all enter week five 26th or worse in total yards per game offensively. The Legion of Boom has only been tested once this season (Green Bay) and they got lit up for nearly 400 yards. It’s nice they have Kam Chancellor back in the lineup but I expect Cincinnati is going to be their toughest test yet this season. The Bengals have been an offensive powerhouse through four weeks. They are averaging 30 points per game this season and over 422 total yards on offense. If Seattle has a chance to win this game theirdefensive coordinator will need to have an ace up his sleeve.
Last season Seattle gave up 42 total sacks all year. Through four weeks this season Wilson has been already been sacked 18 times (2nd most in the league). At this rate Russell is going to have his face smashed in the dirt 72 times this season. It’s beginning to look like Seattle has serious problems on their offensive line, and I can’t help but say I knew this could become an issue from the day they traded Max Unger for Jimmy Graham. Unger was a pro-bowl calibre center and an integral part of Wilson’s protection the last couple season. While Graham has only 174 total yards receiving through four weeks – a big step back from last season where he had 340 yards receiving through the same span. Was the trade really worth it Seahawks fans? I’m beginning to look like no.
Marshawn Lynch is out once again this weekend. While his back-up Fred Jackson is also injured with a high-ankle sprain. Its no secret that Seattle is a team that has relied heavily on running the ball the last two seasons. If they are without both these guys this weekend Cincinnati could maul Wilson on sunday. The Bengals are 6th in the league with 11 sacks through four weeks. Few teams have been as good as Cincinnati at pressuring the quarterback this season. If Wilson has no run game to sit back on this weekend things could get ugly and ugly fast.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 0-6 straight up and 0-4-2 against the spread away all-time versus AFC North opponents
- 0-4 against the spread as non-conference road underdogs of 5-points or less
- 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a straight up win
- 2-8 against the spread in weeks 5-9 the last three seasons
CINCINNATI
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up win
- 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 home games
- 5-2 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 675
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 21 – BENGALS 28
DENVER BRONCOS (-4.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Oakland Raiders (2-2) return home this weekend to host the Denver Broncos (4-0) in their first divisional game of 2015. Denver has had yet another great start to their season remaining one of four teams still undefeated. While the Raiders 2-2 start is their best since the 2011 season. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 4.5-point road favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 43.5.
Oakland had high expectations entering this season and through four weeks they actually haven’t been a total bust. Derek Carr is tied for 7th in the league with 7 passing touchdowns and is leading the Raiders passing game to 10th best in the league averaging 255 yards per game. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have surely helped Carr succeed this season, but I feel like people have ignored the fact they have had an easy path through secondaries. Their last three opponents combine for a 3-9 record this season (Chicago, Cleveland, Baltimore) and each of them are allowing 2 passing touchdowns or more per game defensively. Don’t expect things to be quite so easy for them this weekend. Denver is one of the best defensive teams in the entire league and are leaders in several important categories. They are 1st overall limiting opponents to an average of 185 yards passing per game, have a league best 6 interceptions and have allowed a league fewest two passing touchdowns all year. Don’t be shocked when Derek Carr and this Raiders offense struggles to find the endzone this weekend.
Denver has arguably the best defense in the league. What about that Raiders you ask? They have been atrocious. Entering this weekend they are 31st in the league allowing over 400 total yards of offense to opposing teams. Teams have scored 20-points or more in every game against them this season and it points towards their glaring issues in the secondary. They have allowed a league worst 19 completions of 20 yards or more this season, and their 8 passing touchdowns through four weeks ranks them 27th overall. Peyton Manning might not be at the pinnacle of his career any longer, but he has all the necessary weapons to embarrass this Raiders secondary this weekend.
The protection has been fantastic for Carr this season. But if anyone is capable of testing how good their offensive line actually is – it’s the Denver Broncos. Demarcus Ware leads the league with 4.5 sacks this season and their defense is 1st in the league with a combined 18 sacks through four weeks. Their front four has been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks in nearly every game this year and if the Raiders can’t get the play action operating early then Carr could be in trouble. Denver’s defense looks more complete than last season, and the Raiders failed to score more than 17-points in both outings during the 2014 season. When you’re picking who wins this game this weekend just remember this – Denver has not lost against Oakland since Peyton Manning became their quarterbacks in 2012, and they have been outscored by an average of 22-points across that same span.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games against divisional opponents
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road favoruite
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as a road favourite of 3.5-10 points
OAKLAND
- 4-7 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
- 0-5 before facing the San Diego Chargers
- 0-4 before bye week
LOOT VALUE – 650
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 26 – RAIDERS 13