With only three weeks remaining in the regular season the playoff picture is really beginning to shape up. Mathematically the Ravens, Browns, Titans and Chargers are all eliminated from qualifying for the post-season from the AFC this year. While the 49ers and Lions are the only two teams unable to qualify from the NFC. Looking back at last weekend, my record finished a flat and smooth 2-2. Not much good has come my way this season, luck just hasn’t seemed to be on my side. The Bills and Broncos both failed to cover the spreads in their respective match-ups, while the Steelers and Packers victories were my two correct predictions. With only three weeks remaining in the regular season my record now sits at 24-28-1. It’s about time I stopped darkening doorsteps and started making conscious and accurate predictions – maybe week fifteen will be that. But before I dive into the games I’m leaning on this weekend, here’s a short recap of where we sit after last week.
- Minnesota lost their second straight game on Thursday night in Arizona. Teddy Bridgewater fumbled the ball with less than a minute left on the clock to solidify victory for Cardinals fans. This was extremely disappointing, it looked like thing were surely heading into overtime and my Vikings had a shot at knocking off a very respectable team at home.
- Atlanta got embarrassed in Carolina. They failed to score a single point and after starting the season 6-1, they have lost 6 straight games. All of a sudden this team is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, and things don’t look to end well if they continue down this path. Dan Quinn only started coaching them this season but if he survive a collapse this terrible at seasons end, it’ll be shocking.
- The NFC East continues to be a crap shoot. Philadelphia, Washington and New York all won this past weekend. This should be the most interesting division to follow as we close out the final three weeks. The Eagles/Redskins game on January 3rd could very well decide who wins this division and earns a wildcard spot.
- Nobody is hotter than Kansas City. They officially won their 7th straight game and are giving everyone a reason to fear them. I think it’s about time we started talking about them winning 10 straight before entering the post-season – they face the Ravens, Browns and Raiders the next three weeks. Its just too bad Jamal Charles was lost to injury again this season. Without him, it’s difficult to see them going deep into January.
- Jacksonville put up 51 points against the Colts. Things do not look well in Indianapolis right now and the timeline for Chuck Pagano seems to be ticking. But the real headline here should be the fact Jacksonville is now only a game back of both the Colts and Texans. They actually have a shot at making the post-season this year, but facing the Falcons/Saints/Texans doesn’t make it an easy road.
- Pittsburgh climbed to within two games of Cincinnati after defeating them 33-20 on Sunday. But the real head-line is Andy Dalton broke his right thumb early in the game. It’s once again beginning to look like a specular regular season for the Bengals could turn into another first round play-off exit.
- Biggest upset of the weekend goes to Oakland. They knocked off Denver 15-12 and surprised everyone in Colorado. It’s been a long time coming since the Raiders were a threat, it looks like they are close to achieving that. Khalil Mack really took over this game recording 5 sacks. He now leads the league with 14 this season.
- If the playoffs started this weekend the Patriots, Bengals, Cardinals and Panthers would all receive byes. While the wild-card round would feature the Jets/Broncos, Chiefs/Colts, Vikings/Packers and Seahawks/Redskins. With both Washington and Indianapolis having losing records, this could be the first year in NFL history that two teams below .500 qualify for the playoffs. The next three weeks are going to be very exciting.
NEW YORK JETS (-3) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
The New York Jets (8-5) travel south this weekend to take on the Dallas Cowboys (4-9) in AT&T Stadium. Dallas will need a victory to have any chance of making the play-offs this season. While the Jets could win their 4th straight and creep that much closer to punching a ticket to the post-season if they come out on top. For the first Saturday night game this season – Oddsmakers have listed the Jets as 3-point road favourites, with a total set of 42-points.
With the way both these teams have been trending, you’d have to be crazy to put money on the Cowboys at home this weekend. Their offense has been an absolute embarrassment since Romo went down with injury. Entering this weekend they are 26th in the league converting on third-downs, (35%) 28th in total yards per game, (325) and 30th in points per game (17.7). It’s easy to see that behind Matt Cassel their offense has struggled this year and I can’t say I’m surprised. Cassel has never proven himself to be a full-time starting quarterback in this league and New York should expose his glaring weaknesses again this weekend. The Jets enter this game a top five defensive team. They’re allowing the 5th fewest yards per game this season, (328) the 7th fewest third down conversions, (33.85%) and have forced the 4th most turnovers this season (24). Given the Cowboys offensive struggles and the Jets major strength behind a strong linebacker core, we should all be expecting a good ole’ fashion beatdown this Saturday evening.
The Cowboys saving grace has been their defense this season. They’ve done a great job in limiting opposing quarterbacks and yardage but in the last few weeks their run defense has fallen apart – and we should all be aware that is the glue that holds together any team. They allowed the Packers to run for over 230 yards against them this past Sunday, and are giving up an average of 140 rushing yards per game in their last three games – 28th most. With New York’s pride behind a ground and pound style of offense for nearly the last decade, and entering this game running for an average of 136 yards per game in their last three – (5th most in the league across that span) Dallas looks to be in deep trouble. If the Jets can get their ground game going it’ll open up the passing lanes for Ryan Fitzpatrick and we should witness a couple different wide receivers catching touchdown passes. Don’t hesitate to put money on New York winning this game.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win
- 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games in December
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against the spread
DALLAS
- 0-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games following a loss by 14-points or more
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – JETS 27 – COWBOYS 10
TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)
The New England Patriots (11-2) return home this weekend to take on the Tennessee Titans (3-10) in Foxborough. New England has strung together a 12-win season for the 6th consecutive season, and could make it 6 consecutive victories against Tennessee dating back to 2003 if they win this weekend. As for the Titans, they’re simply picking up the pieces of what was the 2015 NFL season. They’re officially outside the playoff race for a 7th season in a row and they haven’t won back-to-back games all year. For that reason and several others, oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 13.5-point home favourites for this AFC matchup, with a total set of 47-points.
Patriots only two touchdown favourites at home against Tennessee this weekend. Somethings gotta be wrong here. New England enters this game one of the highest scoring offensive teams in the league – and the Titans defense hasn’t stopped a tumble weed in the last couple weeks. In the last three weeks Tennessee is allowing over 400 total yards of offense per game and 31-points per game. Those numbers might not be terrible if they’d just faced Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisburger – but they haven’t. Their last three opponents include Oakland, Jacksonville and the New York Jets. Three teams with middle of the pack quarterbacks. Now you can understand why I think Tom Brady might just blow the doors off this weekend. He has lead the Patriots to a scoring average of over 30 points per game this season and 306 yards passing – best in the entire league. Brady has shown us time and time again that it doesn’t matter who he has catching the football, so long as they have hands. Gronkowski should be a matchup nightmare for this struggling Titans secondary and New England should have no problem cruising to a 2-score victory – this game could easily be decided before halftime.
Marcus Mariota has proven he can compete at an NFL level this season, but the Patriots should have no problems exposing his inexperience on Sunday. New England has for a long time been a hit-or-miss defensive squad, but at home they’ve always played well. This season they’re allowing the 6th fewest yards per game (316) at home, and are one of ten teams holding opponents under 20 points all season long. Look for them to send several different blitz-packages at Mariota this weekend and try and keep him inside the pocket. New England finds themselves in elite class this season, they’re one of the few that has allowed less than 20 passing touchdowns this year and has over 10 defensive interceptions. Plus their average scoring margin of +13.4 points at home this season just makes this prediction a no-brainer. Shower your money on the Patriots this weekend, rarely do they disappoint in Foxborough.
TRENDS
TENNESSEE
- 5-18-3 against the spread in their last 26 games following a straight up loss
- 18-37-5 against the spread in their last 60 games following a straight up loss by 14-points or more
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road underdog
NEW ENGLAND
- 2-0 against the spread as a favourite of 10 or more points this season
- 5-2 against the spread versus AFC South opponents the last three seasons
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 750
FINAL SCORE – TITANS 9 – PATRIOTS 33
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14)
The Cleveland Browns (3-10) travel west this weekend to take on the Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at CenturyLink Stadium. This marks the first road game for the Browns in over a month, and they’ll aim to earn back-to-back victories for the first time this season. As for Seattle, they’re riding a four game winning streak and have re-established themselves as Super Bowl contenders again this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 14-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 43-points.
Few teams have been playing better than Seattle in the last four weeks, and arguably nobody is more dominate at home. Since 2013 Seattle is 22-4 when playing at home, are limiting opponents an average of 16.7 points per game, and scoring an average of 27.2 points. Its no secret that CenturyLink is one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL to play in and given the Seahawks recent resurgence of success I just don’t see how Cleveland will hold their composure in this game and keep it anywhere close to a two-score game. Johnny Manziel will be starting under centre for this matchup and he is not the most ideal candidate to defeat this Seattle team. He is 0-3 against defensive teams inside top-ten of yards allowed per game this season, and has an average completion percentage below 50% in each of those games. Seattle is going to force Cleveland to throw the football because they are so dominate at stopping teams from running the ball at home – and I just don’t see Manziel exploiting the Seattle secondary with his arm. He’s thrown only 6 touchdown passes all season, and he’ll need to have multiple in his game for Cleveland to keep it close. In each of Seattle’s five losses this season opposing teams have scored 27-points or more in each game. Thats something the Browns have done only four times this season, but more importantly, not once against a team with a winning record.
Cam Newton might be the front running for MVP this season, but in the last four weeks nobody has played the quarterback position better than Russell Wilson. Since week eleven Wilson has posted an average completion percentage above 75%, thrown for 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions – plus he’s rushing for nearly 25 yards per game. This guy can do everything at the position and I firmly believe Cleveland coach Mike Pettine is going to swallow his words this weekend – he openly stated that he doesn’t believe Wilson is a top-tier quarterback in this league. If those numbers above don’t say that he is, than maybe that Super Bowl ring on his finger does. Cleveland is going to have a time trying to slow down the Seattle offense this weekend and their defense hasn’t exactly been reliable on the road this season. They enter week fifteen allowing teams to score an average of 29 points per game on their home turf, are 1-5 in those games, and post an average scoring margin of -13.5 points. Look for Seattle to continue their dominance and lay down a beating again this weekend.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 0-7 against the spread after allowing less than 70 yards rushing in their previous game
- 0-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record this season
- 2-6 against the spread as a road underdog between 14-21 points since 1992
SEATTLE
- 16-4-1 against the spread in their last 21 games in December
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite of 10.5-points or more
- 8-0 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season the last three years
- 4-1 against the spread as a home favourite between 14-21 points sine 1992
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 6 – SEAHAWKS 37
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) VS PHILADELHIA EAGLES
The Arizona Cardinals (11-2) are set to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) this weekend at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia is in a three way tie with the Giants and Redskins over the NFC East lead, and desperately need a victory this weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive. As for Arizona, they are quietly riding a 7-game winning streak and could clinch a first-round playoff bye with a win this weekend and a Green Bay loss. Oddsmakers are expecting a close game between these teams listing Arizona as 2.5-point road favourites, with a total set of 51-points.
Analysts had high expectations for Philadelphia entering the season, and they have done nothing but disappoint. Yet, in the last two week they’ve really cleaned up their appearance. They defeated a tough New England team in Foxborough, and returned home to hold-off a good Buffalo Bills team. The key to victory? Taking care of the football. Philadelphia has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season at turning the ball over. Only four teams have turned the ball over more than the Eagles this season (23). But in the last two weeks they have only have two turnovers. In order to keep this game tight, those turnover numbers will have to stay low once again, but that might be difficult. Arizona is a monstrosity defensively and have crushed several teams this season by simply forcing multiple turnovers. They’re tied for the 2nd most turnovers this season defensively, and are well rounded in nearly every other area. In their last three games they’ve allowed only three touchdowns and are allowing the 4th fewest total yards per game this season at 322. If Philadelphia has a fighting chance at doing the tango with the Cardinals they’ll have to play a lights out offensive game. Sam Bradford will have to be the catalyst behind this team – unfortunately I just can’t see his two fake knees carrying that burden. Bradford is no stranger to facing the Cardinals playing in the NFC West division for majority of his career, but his numbers against Arizona are average at best. In 7 career games since 2010 he’s thrown 8 interceptions, and has only one game without a single pick. If Bradford hears footsteps this Sunday and begins to panic inside the pocket, then Arizona will cruise to an 8th straight victory.
Carson Palmer has been playing incredible this season and Arizona’s offensive numbers speak for themselves. They enter week fifteen averaging the second most points per game at 31, and the most yards per game at 417 this season. Very few defensive teams have been able to slow down their offense this season and Philadelphia probably won’t be included on that list. The Eagles are giving up an average of 31 points per game and 300 passing yards per game the last three weeks, second most in the entire league across that span. The Eagles rely heavily on turnovers to stay in games and Arizona just doesn’t turn the ball over. Palmer has thrown only 9 interceptions this season, in comparison to 31 touchdown passes – and he hasn’t turned the ball over once in the last three weeks. Everything points towards Arizona being the stronger of these two teams and I firmly believe the Eagles are due to hit that brick wall once again.
TRENDS
ARIZONA
- 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games following an against the spread loss.
- 18-6 against the spread in their last 24 games against a team with a losing record
- 12-1 against the spread in their last 13 road games versus a team with a losing home record
- 13-3 against the spread in the last three season when the line is between +3 and -3
PHILADELPHIA
- 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog
- 8-17-1 against the spread in their lats 26 games versus a team with a winning record
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 2-10 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons