Another week is beyond us and only three remain. My predictions for week fourteen finished a combined 2-2. The Packers and Vikings both covered the spread in persuasive fashion. While the Chargers and Colts each chalked up losses to bring my season record to 29-23-2. I’m hopeful that with only twelve games remaining on my schedule that I’ll be able to finish the year above .500. Barring a complete meltdown, I think this is more than attainable. Before I jump into who I’m favouring to cover this weekend, here are some important notes to contemplate when deciding where to place your cash down the stretch.
- Los Angeles front office mentality: Lets sign Jeff Fisher to a 2-year contract extension then fire him less than two weeks later. Nobody on planet earth would argue Fisher didn’t deserve to get fired. The Rams got absolutely smashed at home versus Atlanta last weekend and Fisher officially tied the record for most losses ever by a head coach. Part of me thinks firing him after this game was to save Fisher the grace of breaking arguably the least desirable record to hold in all of sports. I don’t expect him to be on the sidelines anytime soon.
- It is time we begin to acknowledge that Seattle is not the powerhouse of the past seasons. They got embarrassed in Green Bay and Russell Wilson played one of the worst games of his career throwing 5-interceptions. Seattle will easily make the playoffs because the rest of the NFC West is complete garbage, but I’m not convinced this team is going far without home field advantage throughout – which now seems like only pipe dream with Kansas City, Oakland and Dallas all untouchable.
- Cleveland. 0-13. Soon to be 0-16. The Browns host San Diego, and play on the road in Buffalo and Pittsburgh to finish the season. If this team somehow earned a win before the season is up I’ll eat my shorts.
- Indianapolis can officially kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. Their loss against Houston on Sunday officially decided that fate. While Tennessee defeating Denver made it a two way race for the AFC South. Both the Texans and Titans are 7-6 and play one game versus each other in the final week of the regular season. Advantage goes to Houston with playing Jacksonville and Cincinnati in the next two weeks, two garbage teams. But I simple don’t trust Brock Osweiler – you should all be aware of that by now. As for Tennessee, they travel to Kansas City then play Jacksonville before finishing the season versus the Texans. Prediction – this division gets decided in the final week of the year.
- It’s official, the New York Giants can officially call themselves the Dallas Cowboys kryptonite. They’ve been the only team to beat Dallas this season and Sunday they did it for a second time. This could have implications to who gets home field if the Giants are able to tie the Cowboys record, but that’s a reach. Dallas plays Tampa Bay, Detroit and Philadelphia to finish the year. While the Giants play Detroit, Philadelphia and Washington. The Cowboys have to lose two of three games while the Giants have to win out if they hope to take the NFC East title and home field throughout. Maybe that happens on a not so distant universe, but not here. I’ve said it in three consecutive weeks now, the road to the SuperBowl in the NFC will run through Dallas this season.
- At 8-5 the Pittsburgh Steelers should be crowned AFC North champions this season, barring a complete meltdown of course. For you haters that want to argue Baltimore could still win this division.. they play Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to finish the season. While the Steelers play Cleveland instead of Philadelphia, might as well mark that game in the calendar as a win. Baltimore had to win in New England on Monday Night to have any shot at keeping pace.
- Anyone take my advice on Kansas City? I suggested a 15/1 bet on them to win the SuperBowl before their Thursday Night showdown with Oakland. The Chiefs now have the same record as Oakland but if they win out there is a good chance they’ll have home field throughout the playoffs until the conference championship (New England has to keep winning of course). Kansas City is the most complete defensive team in the entire league, and their odds to win it all have already changed to 11/1 with them in great shape to take home the AFC West title this year.
- Denver. SuperBowl champions to completely missing the playoffs? They are now 8-5 after their loss in Tennessee on Sunday and play New England, Oakland and Kansas City to close out the year. Talk about a BRUTAL closing schedule. You heard it here first, Broncos miss the playoffs.
- With Denver missing the play-offs, Tampa Bay will get in. Quickly, everyone climb aboard the Buccaneers bandwagon! This team is in great shape to make their first post-season appearance in nearly 10 seasons. At 8-5 Tampa Bay is currently in a wildcard position and only play one opponent in the final three weeks with a winning record. Pencil them into the picture this post-season.
- Green Bay is surging at the perfect time. They still need a miracle to win the NFC North and make the playoffs this season – but crazier things have happened. After all, Matthew Stafford did injury his throwing hand in week fourteen and they play the Giants, Cowboys and Packers to finish the season. Going 0-3 isn’t all that far outside the picture, which would leave the door wide open for Green Bay to have a chance if they can defeat Bears and Vikings in the next two weeks.
DETROIT LIONS VS NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)
The New York Giants (9-4) welcome the Detroit Lions (9-4) into MetLife Stadium this weekend. Both of these teams have had fantastic seasons through week fourteen and are sitting in a playoff position. The Detroit Lions enter this game riding a five game winning streak. While the Giants have won seven of their last eight. The last time these organizations met was in 2014 at Ford Field. Detroit secured a 35-14 victory. Oddsmakers have listed the Giants as 3.5-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 41-points expected between these two teams.
Out of every single team that currently holds a post-season spot, I consider Detroit the weakest. Just look at the Lions schedule. One could argue they have one quality win all season; against the 7-5-1 Washington Redskins. The Lions nine victories have come against the Colts, Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars, Saints, Bears and Vikings twice. Out of those teams, not a single one is in first place of their division, nor retaining a playoff position. Only the Vikings and Redskins have a record above .500, everyone else that Detroit has defeated this season are in the bottom half of the league this season. If you ask me, Detroit has had an extremely easy schedule this season. Them travelling into New York this weekend is going to be a wake up call for those that think Detroit deserves to be in the discussion for the one of the best in the NFC.
Matthew Stafford officially set a record with his eighth 4th quarter comeback victory this past weekend. Impressive, very impressive…. or is it? Sure, setting records are nice, but I’m not convinced this record shows Detroit is an elite team. It simply shows that this team could very easily be 6-7 or worse right now. Detroit has been trailing in almost every single game they have won this season. It definitely shows resilience, but it also shows that this team has relied heavily upon last second magic to win them games this season. Something that simply won’t work against the Giants defense this weekend. New York spent millions and millions of dollars in the offseason to improve their defense, and boy did it work. Just consider their numbers this season compared to last. In 2015 New York had the 24th ranked rushing defense, the 12th ranked red-zone defense and were ranked 32nd on third-down conversions. Entering week fifteen this year the Giants have the 7th ranked rushing defense, 1st overall red-zone defense, and are 4th in the league on third-down conversions. Safety Landin Collins anchors a stifling Giants secondary this season and without Stafford at 100% I just don’t see how the Lions keep this a game within 4th quarter comeback range.
The Giants have struggled to put up points this season, but when playing at home they’re scoring nearly 4-points more per game. This season they are 6-1 at home, and have not lost since week two against Washington. Eli Manning has been steady as usual and could have his best game all season against the Lions this weekend. Detroit enters New York with alarmingly poor statistics versus the pass and opposing quarterbacks this season. They are currently 31st in the league allowing opposing quarterbacks to post an average quarterback rating of 101.3 per game this season. While the 72.89% completion percentage they are allowing is highest in the entire league. Eli Manning has an arsenal of weapons around him and Odell Beckham Jr. has the playmaking ability to score from just about anywhere on the field. His 61-yard touchdown last weekend versus Dallas secured a victory, and his big play making ability could be all the Giants need to win this game. This game is going to be a major wakeup call for Lions fans this weekend – and it’s only the beginning as they take on Dallas next weekend. Look for the Giants to win in lopsided fashion on Sunday.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 games in December
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 15
NEW YORK
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning road record
- 3-1-1 against the spread after scoring less than 15-points in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 13 – GIANTS 27
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1) meet for the second time this season this weekend. Cincinnati has secured back-to-back wins for the first time all year but need some serious luck if they hope to make a 6th consecutive post-season appearance. Entering this game they have less than a 1% chance of advancing into January. As for Pittsburgh, they have won four straight and would extend their AFC North lead with a win this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Steelers as 2.5-point road favorutes for this game, with a total set of 44 points.
Seeing Pittsburgh as only 2.5-point favorutes this weekend put a twinkle in my eye. How can oddsmakers think that this game will be close. Cincinnati does not have a single quality victory this season, and could be missing their most important offensive weapon in A.J Green. The Bengals five victories this season have been against the Jets, Dolphins, Philadelphia and Cleveland twice. You could argue that Miami is good, but every single other team on that list has been nothing but disappointing this season. Take away the Dolphins, and those other teams combine for a 9-30 record this year. With Pittsburgh heating up at just the right time and the raw offensive talent they have, I don’t see a scenario this weekend where they don’t win by at least 3-points. Early in the year the Steelers struggled to score points and their defense was flat, but as we roll into week fifteen they seem to have both under control. During their current winning streak they’ve outscored opponents 103-50. They are quietly putting the pieces together and that doesn’t bode well for a Bengals team that could be without A.J Green again this weekend. Green began practising on Wednesday but dealing with a hamstring injury can be extremely difficult for wide receivers – and without him at 100% for this game I think the Bengals are dead in the water.
Cincinnati has predicated their success on strong defensive play. They have earned five straight playoff appearances because their defense was revered as one of the best and could force turnovers like few others in the league. This season, neither of those things are true. Their defense is allowing opponents to score an average of 20.7 points per game, 3-points more than in 2015. But the real difference has been their inability to make big plays. In 2015 the Bengals forced 21 interceptions and 7 fumbles, combining them for 3rd most turnovers in the league. This season they have only 15 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles, 10th in the league.
For Cincinnati to remain in this football game they’ll need to keep the Steelers offense off the field. The best method to accomplishing that will be to shut down Le’Veon Bell. In week fourteen Bell combined for 296 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in Buffalo. Nearly 50% of the time this Steelers offense goes through Bell. He is one of the best pass catching running backs in the league. He trails only David Johnson in receptions by all running backs this season by two, and has played at total of three fewer games. Victory for Cincinnati will weigh on their ability to limit Bell, and that isn’t comforting. Their record against running backs this season is terrible. They currently sit 27th in the league giving up 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and are 25th allowing over 115 total rushing yards per game. If Bell can find any penetration early in this game then it will be over because Brown can pick up the scraps. Antonio Brown is a top five receiver in this league and if the play action is working covering him is nearly impossible. Expect the Steelers to roll over the Bengals this weekend.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 8-1 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 6-3 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
CINCINNATI
- 0-6-1 against the spread versus teams with a winning record this season
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 6-19 against the spread versus Pittsburgh since 1992
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 25 – BENGALS 12
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4)
The Minnesota Vikings (7-6) welcome the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) into U.S Bank Stadium this weekend. This is an extremely critical game for both of these organizations. Minnesota will have to win out to have any chance at winning the NFC North title this season after a 5-0 start. While the Colts also need to run the table and receive some luck along the way to have any chance at hosting a playoff game this year. Oddsmakers have listed the Vikings as 4-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 45.5 points expected in this matchup.
I was all in on the Colts last weekend and they screwed me. I actually thought they would defeat Houston and keep their playoff hopes alive. Now that their season is pretty much shot, I’m banking on the Vikings to flush the toilet this weekend. Minnesota has been a wreck since their hot start 5-0, but one thing that has remained steady has been their defensive play. This is a top five defensive team and with the Colts biggest weakness being their offensive line, the Vikings should control this game. Entering week fifteen Andrew Luck has been sacked 40 times, (2nd most) and knocked down another 109 times. He has either been thrown around like a rag doll, or left running for his life all season long. This weekend should prove to be no different. Minnesota could actually be the best defensive team that the Colts offensive line has seen all season. Entering week fifteen the Vikings are 1st in the league limiting teams to a total of 17.3 points per game, and their 35 combined sacks are bettered by only Denver and Carolina this season. Eric Kendricks, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr; the list of defensive playmakers the Vikings roster possesses is endless. How the worst offensive line in this league is going to contain all of them and somehow manage to create a running attack, that seems extremely unlikely.
Earlier this week I overheard a fellow call into Mad Dog Sports radio and profess Andrew Luck is a turnover machine. I wouldn’t go as far as labelling him that, but without quality offensive lineman anyone can become turnover prone. Entering week fifteen Luck has thrown at least one interception in 8 of 13 games this season. He has made some serious mistakes this season if he slips up this weekend Minnesota will surely make the Colts pay. The Vikings are +26 in net turnover points scored this season.
No doubt about it, the Vikings defense has carried this team this season. Their offense has had some major issues this season, most notably the injuries. They lost Adrian Peterson in only week two of the season, and shortly there after the offensive linemen began to drop line flies. But this weekend they welcome Indianapolis to town, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Colts are allowing opposing teams to earn an average of 377.9 yards of total offense per game this season, (29th) and have held only two opponents under 20-points all season long. They have struggled against the worst offensive teams in the league, and history has shown that if the Vikings can reach the 20-point plateau they are nearly unbeatable. Minnesota is 6-1 this season when they score 20 or more points, and won by an average of 10 points in each of those six victories.
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 3-6 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record
MINNESOTA
- 5-1 against the spread at home this season
- 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 game versus a team with a losing record
- 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games as a favourite
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 16 – VIKINGS 23
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5) VS CHICAGO BEARS
The Green Bay Packers (-5) aim to sweep the season series versus the Chicago Bears (3-10) this weekend at Solider Field. Chicago is already well outside the playoff picture, but they’d love more than anything to squash the Packers post-season dreams this weekend. As for Green Bay they are beginning to catch fire. They’ve won three straight games, and for good reason oddsmakers have listed them as 5-point favourites this weekend in Chicago with a total set of 40-points expected.
Green Bay still needs several dominos to drop in order to make the playoffs. But one thing is certain, nobody wants to play this team down the final stretch or in the first round if the Packers sneak into the post-season. For majority of the season Green Bay struggled, they struggled to score points, but more importantly they struggled to stop points from being scored. Between week 6 and week 11 the Packers defense gave up an average of 32-points per game – worst in the entire league by a long-shot. It was a time when just about anyone could score against this secondary. That same thing cannot be said in the last few weeks. During the Packers current three game winning streak they have held opponents to an average of 12-points per game, fewest in the entire league. This team has been banged up defensively for majority of the season and are finally getting healthy. On top of this they face a team of replacements this weekend.
Matt Barkley will get the nod at quarterback again this weekend with Jay Cutler being injured. He has been less than spectacular since taking over and cannot be relied upon to lead this team to victory. The Bears success goes through their ground game, and this weekend that should be a concern. The Packers have consistently been one of the best run defensive teams in the league this season. Entering this game they are 9th holding teams to an average of 96.2 rushing yards per game, and have allowed only 9 rushing touchdowns all season (11th). It’s going to take a miracle for the Bears to reach 20-points this weekend.
Aaron Rodgers is finally returning to form. He struggled for much of the season but in the last four weeks has been lights out. Since week 11 Rodgers has a 71% completion percentage with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jordy Nelson, Randel Cobb, Davante Adams; these guys can all score from just about anywhere on the field and I don’t know how Chicago is going to contain them. Just remember this, Green Bay just put up 38-points against Seattle, one of the best defensive teams in this league. Unless the Packers offense commits multiple turnovers in this game it should finish with the Packers on top by at least 10 points.
This game could be the coldest game ever played in Chicago in Bears history. It is expected to get as low as -15. If this was Miami or Arizona I might say advantage Bears, but nobody in this league knows more about cold weather games than the Packers. They are fresh off played back-to-back games in Lambeau field under frigid temperatures. That isn’t going to stop this team from scoring points. Packers win big and keep their playoff hopes alive.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 3-1-1 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
- 64-37 against the spread in December games since 1992
CHICAGO
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 15
- 1-2 against the spread off a divisional game this season
- 6-19 against the spread versus Green Bay since 1992