WEEK ELEVEN NFL PREDICTIONS – 2016

After going 3-1 in week nine, I gave those wins right back in week ten by going 1-3. The Patriots, Packers and Falcons all failed to cover the spreads I expected; while my sole correct pick was the Chiefs downing the Panthers in Carolina. As we trot ahead into week eleven my record now sits at 20-18-1 on the year. I have yet to post a perfect 4-0 weekend all year; hopeful the best is yet to come. Before I discuss predictions this weekend, lets take a look back at one of the craziest weekends in football this year.

The Browns lost again. They’re now officially 0-10 on the year and fans in Cleveland are apparently planning a parade if the teams finishes the year without a win. To close out the season they play Pittsburgh twice, New York G-men, Cincinnati, Buffalo and San Diego. Getting a win out of any one of those teams is going to be a tough task. Lets just go ahead and pencil in that 0-16.
Houston sent Jacksonville to 2-7 with a 24-21 victory on Sunday. Houston is now 6-3 and in first place of the AFC South, but I’m still far from convinced this is the best team in the division. Brock Osweiler managed to only throw for 99 yards in this game. Yes, he couldn’t even crack 100 yards passing against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. If you ask me, Tennessee is the team to beat in the AFC South down the stretch.
While we’re discussing Tennessee, they absolutely pummelled Green Bay on Sunday. In a game in which I felt was a must win for the Packers, they came out and fell flat on their faces. At one point they found themselves down 28-7 and allowed the Titans to score a touchdown on their first four possessions of the game. Green Bay clearly has major issues on the defensive side of the ball and their reign in the NFC North looks officially over.
Speaking to the NFC North. What was once one of the best divisions in football, has been terrible the last couple weeks. Minnesota has lost four straight games. After a 5-0 start they’ve officially become the first team in NFL history to lose their next four straight. Detroit didn’t even play in week ten with their bye week, and managed to vault into first place of the division because both the Packers and Vikings lost. At this point the Lions look like the most complete team in this division.
Denver blocked an extra point in New Orleans in the dying seconds to not only secure the tie with less than two minutes left, but they returned it for two points and won the game. This was easily one of the best games in week ten and controversy is already surrounding this finish with how the Broncos return man looked to have stepped out of bounds on the blocked extra point. Heartbreaking way to lose a game if you’re a Saints fan.
Philadelphia held the Falcons offense under 20-points on Sunday, becoming the first team to do so all year. I pronounced that the Eagles would have to hold Atlanta under 20-points to win this game, and they did. I’m actually not that surprised Philadelphia won this game, they have yet to lose a game at home all year.
Down 17-3 in the fourth quarter in Carolina the Chiefs stormed back and forced a fumble in the final two minutes to secure a comeback victory. Kansas City is now 7-2 and sit tied for first place in the AFC West with Oakland (7-2). It’s official, the AFC West is the best division in football this year with a combined 25-13 record.
Just when I thought the Chargers were good, they proved me otherwise. Philip Rivers tossed four 4th quarter interceptions, including the game winning pick-6 at home against Miami. With the way the rest of this division is playing it’s nearly impossible for the San Diego to make the playoffs now three games back.
Arizona came into week ten the heaviest favourites all week, yet they left it to another last second field goal to secure a victory against San Francisco. I’m not sure what happened, but the Cardinals have not been playing up to their expectations this year. I’ll go ahead and point the finger at Carson Palmer – he is currently have one of his worst seasons in Arizona.
Dallas and Pittsburgh might go down at the best football game all season. Ben Roethlisburgher faked a spike in the final two minutes and found Antonio Brown in the end-zone for the go ahead score. They should have held on for victory, but a terrible facemask penalty gave the Cowboys a first down and great field position – then Ezekiel Elliot got lose. He ran 32-yards for the game winning touchdown and wasn’t even touched. It looks to me like Tony Romo won’t be standing under center for this team anytime soon, if ever again.
Seattle became the first team to defeat New England since Tom Brady returned from suspension. Earl Thomas was able to hit Rob Gronkowski so hard he apparently suffered a punctured lung. The Seahawks offensive line looked much better, while the Patriots are quickly wishing they could have Jamie Collins back at linebacker. I’ll be honest here – I’m still not convinced Seattle is a SuperBowl contender even with a 6-2-1 record this year.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)

The Baltimore Ravens (5-4) and Dallas Cowboys (8-1) are set to square off in AT&T Arena is weekend. This is only the 5th time in history that these two teams have met, and the Ravens hold a commanding 4-0 series lead between these two teams. After a 8-1 start, the Cowboys look in a great position to earn their first victory ever against Baltimore. Rightfully so Oddsmakers have listed them as 6.5-point home favourites for this game, with a total set of 45-points expected.

Baltimore might be 5-4 and right in the mix of the AFC North, but don’t be fooled, this team does not stack up against the Cowboys. The Ravens five victories this season have come against Buffalo, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Cleveland twice. Notice something that each of those teams share? Not a single one of those teams is at or above .500 this year. They collectively combine for a 10-27 record this year. Baltimore has not had a quality win yet this season as far as I’m concerned, and they face the best team in the entire league this weekend. Baltimore might have one of the best defensive lines in the league, but their secondary is questionable and their red-zone defense has been porous. Entering week eleven they are 22nd in the league allowing teams to score 6-points nearly 59% of the time inside the 20-yard line this season. The last time Baltimore found themselves on the road they allowed the New York Jets to score 24-points, and lost by eight 24-16. This Cowboys offense is much much better, and I expect we will see it run wild again this weekend.

Speaking of running wild – Ezekiel Elliot is solidifying himself as a stud. While Dallas might have the best offensive line the NFL has seen in the last ten years, you’ve gotta give the kid some credit. Through nine games he has 1,005 rushing yards and has a legitimate shot at surpassing Erick Dickerson’s rookie record of 1,808 yards in 1983. On top of this, Elliot is a serious candidate to win MVP this season, something that would cement him as youngest to ever win the award. Baltimore is going to be the toughest task Elliot has faced all season, they have the best rushing defense in the entire league. Entering week eleven they are limiting opponents to an average of 3.3 yards per carry, and 71 total rushing yards per game. But if anyone can crack them, it’s the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has the #1 rushing offense in the league. They are averaging 161 yards per game on the ground this season, and have 16 rushing touchdowns to go with it. Nobody has been able to slow them down this season, and I’m doubtful that Baltimore will be the first.

The Baltimore Ravens offense has been stinking it up this year. They are currently 24th in league scoring 20 points per game, 30th in third down conversion situations (33.58%) and 30th in yards per play at 4.8. They are one of three offensive teams to have less than 10 passing touchdowns, and less than 6 rushing touchdowns combined. Only the Bears and Rams have scored fewer touchdowns than the Ravens this season. Looking at these numbers, it’s easy to see Dallas should be heavy favourites on both sides of the ball this weekend. They are limiting opponents to an average of 18.9 points per game, 8th best in the league, and have allowed only one team to score over 20-points in AT&T Stadium all season. Combine that with the fact their offense has scored 28 or more points in each of their last five outings, a touchdown victory this weekend is as close as you’ll get to a layup for games in week eleven. Look for Dallas to win their 9th straight game as Tony Romo continues to warm up the bench. This is Dak’s team now.

TRENDS

BALTIMORE

0-2 against NFC East opponents the last three seasons
3-5 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
1-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win by 14-points or more

DALLAS

3-0 against the spread this season as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points
8-1 against the spread this season
5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game

FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 20 – COWBOYS 30

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Cleveland Browns (0-10) return home this weekend this weekend to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) at FirstEnergy Stadium. Cleveland will be aiming for their first win all season. The last time this team found themselves in the win column was in week 14 of last season when they defeated San Francisco 10-3. As for Pittsburgh, things haven’t been much better. They’ve lost four straight games for the first time since the beginning of the 2014 season. But Oddsmakers expect the Steelers to snap that losing streak this weekend as they’ve been listed as 7.5-point road favourites for this divisional matchup.

Let me get one thing straight, oddsmakers think this game will be closer than a two score game? I’d just like to say that is outrageous. Pittsburgh has been playing poorly as of late but they’ve also faced both New England and Dallas in the last four weeks, two teams sitting atop the power rankings as we enter week eleven. The Steelers have had a tremendously difficult schedule the last couple weeks and that has greatly affected how this team is being seen. Lets just consider this – since 2010 Pittsburgh has gone on a three or four game losing streak only twice, and have not lost five in a row since 2009. While they’ve bounced back after each of those losing streaks to win their next game by an average of 13.5-points.

Cleveland fans should have their brown paper bags ready, because it’s going to get ugly this weekend. Pittsburgh has easily the most talented offense in the entire league. With that being said, they have under performed the last couple weeks, and Cleveland is a great opponent for them to get their mojo back. The Browns are one of two defensive teams in the league allowing an average of 30-points per game this season, and rank dead last allowing nearly 4 touchdowns to opposing offensive teams per game. They’ve been lit up by nearly every team this season, and they are going to get pulverized this again this weekend. Arguably their best defensive player Joe Haden is still nursing a groin injury, an he will be shadowing Antonio Brown this weekend, a receiver he has not been successful in shutting down the last few years. In the last 6 games versus Cleveland Brown has averaged 123 yards per game, and caught five touchdown passes. Last season alone Brown recorded 24 catches for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Browns. Another big performance is almost a guarantee this weekend.

As bad as the Browns defense has been this season, their offense has been equally a bad. They enter week eleven averaging only 17.5 points per game (30th). But really this shouldn’t be shocking, they have glaring weaknesses on both their offensive line, and at the quarterback position. Cody Kessler hasn’t been absolutely terrible for the Browns, but he isn’t putting up numbers they need to win games. His six touchdown passes and average of 177 passing yards per game is the fewest amongst all quarterbacks that have started six or more football games this season. But really, we can’t blame the kid. He’s got nobody to throw the ball too and isn’t even getting a chance ninety percent of the time to scan the field – at 30 the Browns offensive line has allowed the second most sacks in the entire league this year. While the 79 total hits are ten more quarterback hits than the next most team in the entire league. This offensive line hasn’t been able to block anyone all year, and it would directly affect any quarterbacks ability to perform in this league. The Steelers are notorious for drawing up scheme blitzes and this weekend should be no different. I’d be shocked to see Cleveland in this game anywhere past three quarters of football. Cleveland will find themselves in another deep hole on Sunday, and they simply don’t have the offensive weapons or quarterback to surmount a comeback.

TRENDS

PITTSBURGH

20-6-2 against the spread in their last 28 games after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
36-8 straight up versus Cleveland since 1992
97-69 against the spread as a 3.5-9.5 point favourite in all games since 1992

CLEVELAND

0-2 against the spread as a home underdog of 7.5-10 points the last two seasons
0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog
0-8 against the spread in their last 8 divisional games

FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 39 – BROWNS 23

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The San Francisco 49ers (1-8) aim to snap their longest losing streak in nearly 10 years when the New England Patriots (7-2) come into town this weekend. At this point the 49ers are on pace to have their worst season since 2004 when they finished a combined 2-14. While things will eventually get better, first they are going to get worse. Why? because New England is coming to town. Its no secret that the Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they are looking to improve upon their perfect 4-0 road record this year. Oddsmakers have listed New England as the biggest favourites all weekend at 13-points, nearly two total touchdowns.

No team would trade places with San Francisco this weekend. Not only are they facing one of the best football teams in the league this weekend, but New England has been nearly perfect in the last 6 years after coming off a loss. Since 2010 they are 13-4 coming off a loss, and in those 13 victories they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. It is extremely rare that the Patriots get caught with their pants down in consecutive weeks, and I’d be shocked if San Francisco somehow managed to catch them this weekend. New England is superior in nearly every statical category you can find, with or without Gronkowski.

San Francisco tied together a very impressive performance against division rivals Arizona last weekend. They kept the game very close despite being double-digit underdogs. But lets not forget that New England has a much better team, and they have one of the most unstoppable offensive teams in this league. In the last three weeks the Patriots have been converting on third down 62.86%, nearly a 6% better than the next best team in the league. They are averaging nearly 27 points per game, 8th most – and Tom Brady is having another incredible year. Since returning, Brady has an average passer rating of 125, (10 points higher than the next best quarterback) and a completion percentage of 72.9%. (Only quarterback inside or above 70%) Now that I’ve reminded you how great the Patriots offense has been this year, lets take a look at how terrible the 49ers have been defensively. In four of the 49ers last five games they’ve allowed teams to score 33-points or more. 33-points or more! Please tell me you haven’t already forgotten how New Orleans scored 31-points against then in two quarters of football? This team looked good against Arizona last weekend, but the Cardinals have struggled offensively this year. Look no further than these numbers. At 31.4 points per game, San Francisco is allowing the most points per game in the entire league. They’ve allowed teams to convert 53.33% of the time on third down in the last three weeks, (third highest in the league) and are giving up an average of 509 total yards per game since week eight (most in the league). The 49ers have BIG holes in their defense, and they clearly don’t have the talent to stack up against the Patriots. Not to mention Chip Kelly doesn’t have anywhere near the brain or experience to out-coach Bill Belichick.

For San Francisco to keep this game remotely close they’ll need to keep the ball out of Tom Brady mitts. In order to do that they’ll need keep Colin Kaepernick and this offense on the field as long as possible. The only problem with this plan of attack is well, they suck at both of them. Currently the 49ers are converting only 35.94% of the time on third downs (25th) and maintain possession of the football for an average of nearly 26 minutes per game, fewest in the entire league. It’s no wonder this defense can’t stop anyone, they barely get a chance to sit down on the bench before heading back out for another play. Expect this weekend to be no different. Patriots put up a number and hand the 49ers their worst loss at home all season.

TRENDS

NEW ENGLAND

39-17-1 against the spread in their last 57 games following a straight up loss
22-8 against the spread in their last 30 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game
3-1 against the spread as a favourite of 10-points or more in the last three seasons

SAN FRANCISCO

2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 10.5-points or greater
3-9 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
0-4 against the spread in their last 4 home games

FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 45 – 49ERS 17

HOUSTON TEXANS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS (-5)

The Oakland Raiders (7-2) are scheduled to take on the Houston Texans (6-3) on Monday Night in Mexico City. This marks the first NFL game being played in Mexico since 2005 when Arizona and San Francisco squared off in the first ever international football game. For the Texans, they’ll be aiming to win their third straight game. While the Raiders will be looking for their fourth straight. Oddsmakers have listed the Raiders as 5-point favourites in Estadio Azteca, with a total set of 46-points expected.

Three reasons Oakland wins this game by at least 5-poinst on Monday Night;

Brock Osweiler is a bum and doesn’t deserve anywhere near the money he is earning
The Raiders defense is vastly improved in the last three weeks
Derek Carr has one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him

Speaking first towards Brock Osweiler, have any of you actually taken the time to look at this guys numbers this year? He currently has only 11 touchdown passes on the year. Thats just over an average of 1 touchdown pass per game. Terrible when you consider he is getting paid 18 million per year. At this point, the Texans look like they’ll be paying him nearly a million dollars for each touchdown pass he throws this season. Looking further into his numbers, Osweiler is currently averaging 5.61 yards per passing attempt, fewest in the league amongst all starting quarterbacks. This simply isn’t excusable given he has a player like DeAndre Hopkins to toss the ball up too. Last season with a carousel of 4 different quarterbacks Hopkins finished with over 1,500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. This season with only Osweiler his numbers have dropped significantly, through nine games he has yet to reach 500 yards and has only three touchdown catches. Oh, and don’t overlook the fact Osweiler has an average rating of 74.1 this season, second worst in the league, ahead of only Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Now that I’ve established how garbage Osweiler has been this season. How about we focus on the fact Oakland has really tightened up their defensive play the last three weeks. Entering this weekend they are allowing opponents to score an average of 24.8 points per game, (24th) but in the last three games they’ve dropped that average to 20 points per game, 8th best in the league across this span. Secondly, their run defense has drastically improved. The 114 yards they allow per average this year is 21st in the league, but in the last three weeks they’ve limited teams to an average of only 80 per game (5th best across this span). They’re doing a much better job stacking the box and limiting opposing teams the ability to rip off the big run. To understand why they’re finding success lately look no further than Kahlil Mack. In the last three games Mack has 18 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one pass defended. He has been a beast on the defensive end, and this has to be a red-flag for you folks considering betting on Houston this week.The Texans offense runs through their ground game, something that Oakland could easily shut-down this weekend.

Derek Carr’s last three games – five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 897 yards passing. He has this Raiders offense operating on a whole different level this season. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper are arguably the best one-two receiver tandem in the league. Latavis Murray is coming off his best performance all season posting 117 yards and three touchdowns against the Denver Broncos. While the offensive line is protecting Derek Carr better than nearly any other team in the league. Carr has been sacked only 11 times this season, fewest in the league. This has directly helped Carr’s confidence in the pocket and his numbers. He currently has attempted 354 passes this season and has only three interceptions, tying him for the 6th most passing attempts by a quarterback this year, and the fewest interceptions for any quarterback who has attempted over 305 passes. Houston relies heavily on the pass rush to get pressure and defensive turnovers to earn them points. Two things they’ll be hard pressed to find on Monday given the Raiders offensive line is nearly impenetrable this season, and this offense has turned the ball over only 6 times all season, 2nd fewest in the league.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)

TRENDS

BALTIMORE

DALLAS

FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 20 – COWBOYS 30

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS

TRENDS

PITTSBURGH

CLEVELAND

FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 39 – BROWNS 23

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

TRENDS

NEW ENGLAND

SAN FRANCISCO

FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 45 – 49ERS 17

HOUSTON TEXANS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS (-5)

TRENDS

HOUSTON

OAKLAND

FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 16 – RAIDERS 27