Week ten, yet another atrocious week for my books. My predictions finished a combined 1-3 straight up. Only Carolina was able to cover the spread and stay undefeated, while Green Bay, St. Louis and the Cowboys all lost outright. However, I do take solstice in the fact most people probably struggled in week ten. Teams finished a combined 9-5 against the spread as underdogs, with all nine teams not only covering the spread in their perspective games but also winning outright. It was another upset special on Sunday and my record this season mirrors that. Entering week eleven I’m 16-20-1 on the year. With a percentage of 44% this season, there’s no denying it’s been tough. Here’s to hoping the last couple weeks of the regular season are generous. Otherwise, I’ll actually start suggesting you folks pick the opposing teams. But thats enough, here’s a couple things that happened last weekend that could shape how things look as we head down the stretch.
- The Bills defeated New York on Thursday Night and colour blind people everywhere hated it. I guess the “colour explosion” that the NFL was going for totally backfired. Not only did these two teams stand on the field like a christmas tree for us non-colourblind folks, but the others couldn’t tell the difference in teams. Everything aside, both these teams are in the thick of a wildcard spot.
- Jacksonville defeated Baltimore. This was a surprising upset but referees admitted after the game Baltimore should have won. They failed to run 10-seconds off the clock for Jacksonville not getting set before snapping the ball. The next play resulted in the game winning field-goal. But really, Ravens fans should be jumping for joy. This team has nothing left to play for, the 2015 season is a write-off. Jump for joy Ravens fans, higher draft picks are better.
- Ben Roethlisburger wasn’t supposed to play for Pittsburgh but back-up Landry Jones got injured early in the first quarter and Big Ben went in. Not only did he lead the Steelers to victory, but he broke the record for most passing yards by a quarterback in a relief performance. He finished with 379 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. Pretty good afternoon for a guy with a sprained ankle.
- Not only did Chicago surprise everyone by defeating St. Louis, they trampled them 37-13. The Bears did a great job shutting down Todd Gurley while their own running-back Jeremy Landford had a career day with 183 total yards and 2 touchdowns. When Matt Forte returns from injury the Chicago backfield could become awfully crowded.
- Detroit beat Green Bay at Lambeau field for the first time in 24 years. Astonishing, yet it wasn’t so much the Lions beating the Packers as the Packers beating themselves. Their offense couldn’t move the ball against a weak Lions defense, and Aaron Rodgers has racked up 3 straight poor performances. It’s looking like the production from Jordy Nelson is beginning to be felt.
- After jumping out to a 19-3 lead in the first quarter the Eagles dumped all over their own field and put up 0 points in the last three quarters, handing Miami a 20-19 victory. Just when you think Philadelphia might go and do something they remind us just how terrible they can get. With Nick Foles benched in favour of Case Keenum this weekend things in Philadelphia don’t look good. If Chip doesn’t turn this ship around fast then he could be out the door just as fast as he blew up the Eagles roster this off-season.
- Minnesota took down Oakland 30-19 and lead throughout the entire game. It’s about time we started taking notice to the specular play of the Vikings and how their 7-2 record is currently the best in the NFC North. Their game this weekend against the Packers has huge implications.
- Kansas City got revenge against Denver for their week two blunder and held the Broncos scoreless for three straight quarters. Peyton Manning left the game with an injured left foot. Could this be the last time we see him on the field? I can’t help but think yes. His 17 interceptions this season is 5 worse than the next quarterback. With that, don’t be surprised with Brock Osweiler looks good under center.
- New England narrowly avoided defeat with a last season field goal in New York. The Giants had an opportunity to win late in the fourth but dropped a sure interception. I can’t help but feel for Giants fans. Their 5-5 record this season could easily be 8-2 if 4th quarter defensive play was more reliable.
- Houston took down the undefeated Bengals on Monday night. While J.J Watt stated they made Andy Dalton look like the “Red Rider BB Gun”. This was just what the Texans needed. At 4-5 they are now tied with Indianapolis for the division lead and could take first place with Andrew Luck missing time due to injury.
DENVER BRONCOS (+1) VS CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears (4-5) aim to win their third straight game when they welcome the Denver Broncos (7-2) into Solider field. The last time these two teams squared off Tim Tebow was the starting quarterback for the Broncos and Denver won 13-10 on a field goal in overtime. This time Brock Osweiler will start under center but the spotlight is on John Fox and the Bears – it’ll be his first game against his former team. For this matchup oddsmakers like the Bears as 1-point home favourites, with a total set of 41-points.
Peyton Manning might not be starting under center, but I don’t see this as a bad thing. He hasn’t played anywhere near expectations this season and at times has been the worst player on the field. The defensive play of Denver is what has carried them this season, and I’m expecting another strong outing this weekend in Chicago. They enter allowing the fewest yards in the league per game, (277.3) and the highest sack total by any team (32). Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are two of the best pass rushing linebackers in the league, while Aqib Talib is returning from his one game suspension for the eye-gouging incident. I’m looking for the Broncos defense to have a fantastic afternoon against Jay Cutler. Remember this – teams haven’t be orcastraighting 80-yard touchdown drives against Denver this season. It’s been the offensive turnovers that have been killing them on the scoreboard. Ball security is a must this weekend to ensure victory.
Brock Osweiler doesn’t have much experience in the NFL. But given the offensive talent surrounding him I’m expecting a decent performance in Chicago. He is more mobile than Manning, fits the system that Gary Kubiak is trying to employ better, and is 3 inches taller at 6’8. Osweiler just hasn’t had much opportunity to prove himself since entering the NFL, and the Bears look like the perfect opponent to break the ice. The Bears are allowing opposing quarterbacks an average passer rating of 103.3 (27th) and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game (30th) at home this season. While their pass rush is the worst in the entire league – entering sunday they are the only team in the league logging an average of less than one sack per game at home.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up loss
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 3-1 against the spread this season when the line is between +3 and -3
CHICAGO
- 6-19-1 against the spread in their last 26 home games
- 5-23-1 against the spread in their last 29 games after accumulating over 150 rushing yards in their previous game
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win of 14-points or more
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 23 – BEARS 13
ST. LOUIS RAMS (+2.5) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Baltimore Ravens (2-7) welcome the St. Louis Rams (4-5) into M&T Bank Stadium this weekend. With a 2-7 record the Ravens are off to their worst start in franchise history, and have already lost two games against NFC West opponents this season. As for the Rams, they have lost two straight games and desperately need a victory this weekend to stay within reach of a wildcard position. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Ravens as 2.5-point favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 41.5 points.
St. Louis has been one of the most inconsistent teams this year. They have two two-game losing streaks, and one two-game winning streak this season. But really, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Since 2012 the Rams haven’t lost more than three games in a row, or gone on a winning streak of more than three games. Its been a roller coast of emotions for the fanbase in St. Louis since Jeff Fisher took over as head coach, and I’m expecting those emotions to run high again this weekend as St. Louis hands Baltimore their 8th loss of the season.
All seven of Baltimore’s losses this season have come by 6-points or less. They have played terribly close games this entire season, but statistics show St. Louis stacks up perfectly to hand them yet another loss. St. Louis enters this game allowing an average of 332 total yards per game defensively, (6th) and are holding opponents to a 32% third down conversion percentage (2nd). The Rams might have the most talented defensive roster in the entire league yet they regularly under perform. But that shouldn’t be the case this weekend. Baltimore has been ravaged with offensive injuries this season and are the perfect opponent to get their defensive mojo-back.
Baltimore has been a complete train-wreck on defense this season. Entering this game they are giving up over 26 points per game, (25th) 5.6 yards per play (22nd) and are allowing a third down conversion percentage of 45% (30th). But the real downfall for this team has been their inability to create turnovers. They have only 5 turnovers throughout ten weeks, the lowest total of any defensive team in the league. Simply put, nobody has been able to set up and create scoring opportunities. For a team that has built its foundation upon playing a strong defensive game for over a decade, this has been a disappointing season to say the least.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 6-0 against the spread following a double-digit loss at home
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3 points
- 7-3 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
BALTIMORE
- 0-10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favourite
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing road record
- 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home favourite
LOOT VALUE – 700
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 25 – RAVENS 24
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+3)
The San Diego Chargers (2-7) aim to snap their longest losing streak in four years when they welcome the Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) into Qualcomm stadium this weekend. This marks the first of two games these divisional rivals will play against one another in the next four weeks. With Kansas City winning both match-ups last year, Philip Rivers will surely have his team ready to go this Sunday. Despite home field advantage, oddsmakers are still flat on the Chargers, they are 3-point home underdogs for this game.
San Diego might be on a five game losing streak but this team is much better than oddsmakers are giving credit. During their current streak they have not lost by more than 8-points – with three loses coming by 4-points or less. They have played several close games this year and have simply been on the wrong side of injuries and luck. But I’m expecting that to all change this weekend. Kansas City is coming off a great performance against Denver and is in a perfect let-down position winning three straight games. Oddsmakers and the betting public alike are over valuing Kansas City in this situation, Philip Rivers can work magic.
The Chargers achilles heel this season has been their defensive play. But they’re getting thrown a bone this weekend in Kansas City. The Chiefs have stumbled offensively this year. They rank 24th in the league averaging 340 total yards per game, and are 26th in the league converting on third downs on the road; turning new downs only 33.75% of the time. If the Chargers defense has improved even the slightest bit following two weeks of rest, they’ll have a good shot at winning this game. Philip Rivers is leading the league in passing yards with wide receivers that wouldn’t be household names without him. While their average of 416 total yards per game at home ranks them as the only team inside the top 10 with a record below .400. Expect a bounce back performance from San Diego this weekend.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a road favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 road games
- 1-3 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
SAN DIEGO
- 9-0 versus below .500 divisional opponents off a straight up underdog victory
- 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games after allowing over 350 total yards in their previous game
- 4-0 against the spread after playing a monday night football game the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 750
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 24 – CHARGERS 27
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) travel south to Arizona and take on the Cardinals (7-2) in University of Phoenix Stadium this weekend. Both of these teams find themselves in first place of their perspective divisions, and combine for only three loses all season. Cincinnati will be looking to rebound from their first loss all season on Monday against Houston. While the Cardinals have won three straight and look to stay undefeated in November. Oddsmakers have listed the Cardinals as 5-point home favourites, with a total set of 43.5 points.
Arizona might have one of the best records in the NFC this season, but their road to success has been less than difficult. Entering this weekend the nine opponents they have faced combine for a 29-46 record. The only team which they have played this season that has a winning record is the Pittsburgh Steelers- and the Steelers defeated them 25-13 with a back-up quarterback under center. I’m not trying to take away from what Arizona has accomplished this season, but I’d simply like to imply that 5-points might be to many points. Cincinnati is coming off their first loss of the season and will be hungry to get back into the win column. Additionally they are the best defensive team that Arizona has faced all season. In their last three games the Bengals are allowing a league fewest 10 points per game to opposing offensive teams.
Arizona has been equally impressive defensively this season, but Cincinnati should be their toughest test yet. The Bengals have the 2nd best red-zone scoring percentage in the league at 66.74% and have scored 24 points or more in all but two games – which makes them the highest scoring team that the Cardinals will have faced all season. With the array of weapons on this offense, and Dalton playing his worst game of the season last week, I’m expecting a big bounce back performance. A.J Green, Jeremy Hill and Tyler Eifert – they’ll all see the endzone this weekend.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up loss
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game
- 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
- 7-1 against the spread in all games this season
ARIZONA
- 1-4 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 0-7 when above .500 at home versus opponent off a straight up loss in games 9-12
- 1-2 against the spread versus AFC North opponents this season