Give me the soap, because boy do I need to get the bad taste out of my mouth. My week seven predictions finished a combined 0-4. Minnesota, Kansas City, Buffalo and Washington all failed to cover. Minnesota was the only prediction I had that was way off course. Kansas City allowed New Orleans to score in garbage time to cover by a half point, while Washington gave up a final minute touchdown to lose their game against Detroit. As for Buffalo, they held the lead in their game for nearly three quarters of football and blew up in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. 0-4 doesn’t look so good, but I could have just as easily finished 3-1 if one or two things fell my way. Lets hope this weekend turns out a little more prosperous. But before we look into who I’m favouring in week eight, lets do a little recap and update.
- Los Angeles dropped their third straight in London against the Giants. For those of you that didn’t get up early to watch this game, it wasn’t New York that won this game, but Case Keenum that lost it for the Rams. Keenum threw four interceptions including an atrocious pick in the final seconds of the game to seal it for the Giants. Two things continue to baffle me, how Jeff Fisher still has a job in the NFL, and how Jarod Geoff has yet to start a game for the Rams.
- Cleveland got stomped in Cincinnati and fell to 0-7 on the year. It’s beginning to look like a real possibility this team goes 0-16 this season. They can’t seem to keep a quarterback under center for more than two weeks. Their best shot at getting into the win column comes this weekend against the Jets.
- Matthew Stafford came up clutch against Washington leading the Lions down the field with less than two minutes left and threw a 18-yard go ahead touchdown to Anquan Boldin with only 16 seconds left. As we enter the half-way point of the regular season Stafford is making a real case for MVP this season. In seven games this season Stafford has a 68% completion percentage to go with 15 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, all after losing his favourite receiver in Megatron to retirement. Right now Stafford is paying 51/1 for MVP, I’d hop on this right now if I were you, because if the Lions sneak into the playoffs it’ll be due to this guy.
- Its about time people started respecting the Raiders. They improved to 5-2 on Sunday and never played from behind. It’s scary to think the defense has been the weakest point of this team this season, and Kahlil Mack has barely made an impact. Oakland should be good enough to make the post-season this year, and be even better for years to come.
- Touching on Oakland, how about the AFC West. Entering week eight this division combines for a 17-10 record best in the league. We could easily see three teams from this division qualify for the post-season with how things are shaping up at the midway point of the season.
- How about those Dolphins. I’m not ready to say this team is going to on a streak but they might have found something with rookie running back Jay Ajayi. He ran for 200 yards in back-to-back weeks, and becomes the first player to do that since Ricky William did it in 2002. This team still has a long way to go, but if Ajaji can continue to run like this, it’ll take a whole lot of pressure off of Ryan Tannenhill.
- Tampa Bay handed San Francisco their sixth straight loss. Not much to take away from this game except the fact fans look to be protesting the 49ers. Santa Clara City Council has announced they are concerned about attendance this season and that was easily seen on Sunday where about 200 people showed up to watch them get beat down.
- San Diego has won back-to-back games. They defeated Atlanta in overtime on Sunday and can thank Dan Quinn for their first break of the season. Quinn went for it on 4th and 1 inside Atlanta territory and turned the ball over on downs. Philip Rivers was left to pick up a couple yards and get a chip-shot field goal put the game away.
- Worst game of the season goes to Seattle and Arizona on Sunday night. The game finished in a 6-6 tie after both teams failed to convert short game winning field goals in overtime. I don’t know whether this was just a great defensive showing by both teams, or whether they both just had really terrible offensive performances. Either way, I’m glad I didn’t watch this game.
- My intuitions have been confirmed, Brock Oswieler is a bum. After another poor performance on Monday Night fans in Houston have created a GoFundMe page to buy out Osweilers contract. Yes, he has been that bad.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3.5) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers (1-5) are looking to turn their season around as they host the Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) this weekend. The game is a rematch of last years NFC Conference Championship where Carolina stomped Arizona 49-15. You can bet that the Cardinals haven’t forgotten about that outcome, and will be looking to get revenge. Oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 3.5-point home favourites in their first game off their bye, with a total set of 48 points.
Neither of these teams have had a great start to season but Arizona is clearly the better of the two teams, and I’ll happily take the three points oddsmakers are offering this weekend. Carolina was a juggernaut last season but since their crushing Super Bowl defeat they haven’t been the same. The biggest mistake this team made in the offseason was letting Josh Norman walk. He was the heart and sole of this secondary and without him they have a glaring weakness in their pass coverage, and the numbers say it all. Last season the Panthers ranked 2nd in the league allowing 5.8 yards per passing attempt, and 8th allowing just over one passing touchdown per game. In their first six games this season in those same categories Carolina sits 30th in both yards per passing attempt (8.2) and passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.2) defensively. These numbers have drastically fallen off and you can attribute much of their struggles to inexperience in their secondary, and the inability to force turnovers this season. Starting cornerbacks James Bradberry and Daryl Worley are both first year rookies, and by the defensive numbers you can tell these two have been lit up like a christmas tree this year. Looking back to last season, Carolina was a turnover machine defensively, they finished 2015 with 39 total turnovers, 6 more than the next best team. As for this season, the Panthers are currently tied for 16th with only 8. This teams pronounced dominance was built on several aspects of this defense that have been non-existent this season, and we should once again be reminded of that this weekend when Arizona comes to town.
Arizona is two missed field goals away from being 5-2 this season. Chandler Catanzaro missed a field goal in week one against the Patriots for the win, and once again last weekend in overtime against Seattle. Despite a 3-3-1 record this is still one of the most talented teams in the league, and David Johnson is quietly making a case for offensive player of the year. Through seven weeks Johnson has over 1000 yards from scrimmage and has shown he can do just about everything out of the backfield. How Carolina is going to contain Johnson this weekend along with Larry Fitzgerald is a mystery to me. This Panthers team is allowing an average of 29.3 points per game this season, (29th) it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Cardinals get into the 30-point territory on Sunday.
If the Cardinals put up a number in Carolina, the Panthers don’t stand a chance. That’s simply because Arizona has the defensive team to back up their offense. Entering week eight they are 5th in the league allowing an average of 15.7 points per game, and 2nd holding teams to an average of 289.6 total yards per game. If you’re a Panthers fan it has to be concerning to face this Cardinals teams this weekend. Cam Newton is the back-bone of this franchise and the reigning MVP but his numbers this season have been less than spectacular. In six starts Newton has 6 interceptions and a completion percentage of 57.8%. That might not seem terrible but it is the most interceptions by all quarterbacks with less than 200 passing attempts, and lowest completion percentage in the league by any starting quarterback behind only Ryan “Interception” Fitzpatrick.
TRENDS
ARIZONA
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 8
- 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing home record
- 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games versus a team with a losing record
CAROLINA
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a bye week
FINAL SCRE – CARDINALS 31 – PANTHERS 20
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2) VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Indianapolis Colts (3-4) are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) in Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend. Indianapolis is only one game back of Houston for the divisional lead in the AFC South, and aim to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. As for Kansas City, they aim to win their third straight game and move into a tie for first place of the AFC West division. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Colts as 2-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 50 points expected.
Andrew Luck has done a fantastic job putting Indianapolis on his back this season. Unfortunately the guy cannot play on both sides of the ball and their defensive deficiency’s have overshadowed this teams ability to win games. Entering week eight the Colts are 28th in the league allowing opposing teams to score an average of 28.6 points per game (28th). They’ve struggled shutting down the run game giving up over 4.7 yards per carry, (28th) and are allowing one of the highest completion percentages to opposing quarterbacks at 67.68% (30th). Almost every single team this season has found success penetrating the Colts defense, and Kansas City should continue that trend this weekend. Alex Smith is far from an elite quarterback but he’s got the weapons in Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce to do damage downfield, while Spencer Ware has been a rock in the back field this season averaging over 5.2 yards per carry. If Andy Reid sticks to the game plan and runs the ball affectively then the Chiefs should have no problem securing their third straight victory. The Colts have allowed every single opponent they have faced this season to score at least 20 points. Circle that number because Kansas City is 4-0 in games this season when they score 20 or more points.
The Colts offensive line did a much better job protecting Andrew Luck last weekend, and that will have to be duplicated again this weekend for Indianapolis to stay in this game. Entering week eight they have allowed Luck to get sacked a league high 25 times. He has spent plenty of time face down in the dirt this year, and barely given time to allow his receivers to complete their routes. With limited time to operate in the pocket Luck has been known to make questionable passes, and mistakes will cost him against Kansas City. The Chiefs enter week eight leading the league with 10 defensive interceptions this season, and have been fantastic against the deep ball allowing only two passing plays over 40 yards this season. Indianapolis is built on the big play ball and if the Chiefs shut down those opportunities this weekend, the Colts don’t have a chance. In my eyes Kansas City looks in line to win their third straight.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record
INDIANAPOLIS
- 0-4 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
- 1-2 against the spread as an underdog this season
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 27 – COLTS 24
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+2) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) return home this weekend to take on the Oakland Raiders (5-2). Tampa Bay is fresh off back-to-back victories and aim to have their first three game winning streak together in over three seasons. As for Oakland, they’ve won four of their last five games and look to improve on their 6-3 record against the Buccaneers all time. Oddsmakers have listed the Buccaneers as 2-point home favourites this weekend, with the over/under placed at 49.5 points.
How many games does Oakland have to win until the betting world starts respecting them as a good team? I find it appalling that they are 2-point underdogs entering Tampa Bay this weekend, and I’ll gladly take these points. The Buccaneers have a bright future with Jamies Winston, but their defense still has meteorite sized holes in it. They enter week eight allowing an average of 26.5 points per game (25th) and touchdowns in the red-zone 61.90% of the time (23rd). With numbers like that Derek Carr should slice through their secondary like swiss cheese on Sunday. Carr has led the Raiders to the 8th highest scoring team in the league at 26.4 points per game, and has had the best protection in the league getting sacked only 9 times all season. He has had plenty of time to stand in the pocket and that is never a good thing for secondaries when tasked with containing two deep threats in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.
Oakland has received plenty of flack this season on the defensive side of the ball. They simply haven’t showed up for much of the season and my prediction of Kahlil Mack winning defensive player of the year is look less and less possible as the year progresses. With that being said, this team has got to turn things around eventually and this might be the game they get their mojo back. They held the Jaguars to 16 points last weekend, while Mack had one sack, and their defense forced two interceptions and one fumble. This team has the talent to play much better than they have been and Tampa Bay’s offense should get exposed this weekend. Winston enters this weekend 4th in the league with 9 interceptions already this year, and has a porous completion percentage of 59.92% (27th). Add those totals to the fact their offensive line has struggled in the protection of Winston this year allowing him to get sacked 14 times in only 6 games, the Raiders should easily pressure Winston this weekend. I’m expecting a big day from Mack, his time is long past due. Oakland is easily the better of these two teams, and their record speaks to that. Raiders win and improve to 6-2 on the year.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 road games
- 8-0 against the spread in their last 8 games as a road underdog
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points
TAMPA BAY
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as a favourite
- 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games following an against the spread win
- 5-13 against the spread in the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 27 – BUCCANNERS 23
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+5) VS DENVER BRONCOS
The Denver Broncos (5-2) are set to host the San Diego Chargers (3-4) at Mile High Stadium this weekend. This is the second of two meetings between these divisional rivals this season. They last met two weeks ago in San Diego where the Chargers handed the Broncos their second loss of the season 21-13. San Diego is aiming to snap a three game losing streak against the Broncos in Denver, and secure a victory for the first time since 2013. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 5-point home favourites for this matchup, with a total set of 43.5 points expected between these two teams.
San Diego has already survived the test of time. They started 1-4 and it looked like their season was a write off after losing key offensive players Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen to season ending injuries. But this team has put back-to-back victories together against two very good teams. They defeated Denver in week six, and dropped Atlanta just last weekend. I’m a believer this team is much better than the credit they are receiving. If you look back over the Chargers season this team could easily be 6-1. In week one they blew at 17-point lead in the 4th quarter against Kansas City and lost in overtime. In week three they gave up a 63-yard go ahead touchdown against the Colts with only 1:17 to play in the game, and in week four they blew a 13-point 4th quarter lead against the Saints with two costly offensive turnovers. This team is much better that their record shows and they’ve already knocked off the Broncos once this year. Their defensive play has gotten vastly better since Joey Bosa climbed onto the field, and three of their four losses this season have been by 4-points or fewer. The Chargers always keep victory within reach and the same thing should happen this weekend.
Trevor Siemian has played great to this point in the season. But entering week eight him and the rest of this team will be playing on short rest. They demolished the Houston Texans on Monday Night in Brock Osweiler’s return to Denver, but we can’t lump Philip Rivers and this offense into that same category. The Chargers have be unstoppable offensively for most of the season even with all their injuries. Entering week eight they are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league averaging 29.4 points per game, and are one of the least penalized (2nd fewest at 4.7 per game). Whether Philip Rivers wins a Super Bowl or not, this guy is going to go down as a perineal Hall of Fame quarterback. The guy can turn polished turd into a touchdown, and he has been receiving big help from Melvin Gordon out of the backfield this year. Gordon failed to score a single touchdown last season, yet this season all he has done is score touchdowns. Entering this game Gordon leads the entire league with 10 total touchdowns, and should build upon that number. Denver has one of best defensive teams in the league but they’ve been gouged on the ground this season. They’re currently 22nd in the league giving up 116 rushing yards per game, and 17th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.
Denver has the ability to score points, but news broke this week the C.J Anderson is out for the remainder of the season with knee surgery. He has been a workhorse for this team and Devonte Booker will take over as the lead back in his absence. This most definitely hurts the Broncos offense, and simply put they don’t have the offensive line to protect Trevor Siemian for him to do it all. Through seven weeks the Broncos have allowed 17 sacks, tied for 7th most. That should be concerning to Broncos fans because of Joey Bosa. Bosa might be a rookie but in three games the kid already has four sacks and one safety. Protection should become a problem for the Broncos this weekend and if thats the case then turnovers will come in flocks. Look for the Chargers to play upset against this weekend and win the season series against Denver for the first time since 2010.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning record
- 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 road games
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games versus divisional opponents
- 41-18-4 against the spread in their last 63 games as a road underdog
DENVER
- 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favourite
- 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as a home favourite
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win by 14-points or more
- 1-5 against the spread after allowing 14-points or less in their previous game