Week 9 NFL Picks 2014

• The Broncos demolished the Chargers on Thursday night in Denver. It was the forth straight game that Manning has thrown three or more touchdown passes and the Broncos have scored 30 or more points. They are a clear cut favourite to win the Superbowl this season with Seattle’s recent stumbling and my definite pick to make the Superbowl. I just can’t see anyone else from AFC beating Denver’s rejuvenated defense and unstoppable offense. 
• The Falcons blew another lead, this time in London to give Detroit their second consecutive win on a last second field goal. Atlanta has some serious issues to address going forward if they want to turn things around; I think the answer might be a coaching change. While Detroit looks like they might be ready for yet another post season performance. They are off to their best start since 2011 and Golden Tate is playing like an absolute beast. You can bet Seattle is kicking themselves for ever letting this guy walk, he is averaging 120 yards receiving per game the last five weeks and has three touchdowns across that same span. 
• Anthony Barr looks like the first rookie defensive player to be making an impact. After Minnesota lost the coin toss in overtime to Tampa Bay Barr took the field and on the first play not only forced a fumble, he recovered it and returned it all the way for a touchdown to win the game. This guy is only going to get better as the season progresses, its hard not to like Minnesota’s defense going forward. 
  
• The Jets have some serious issues and at this point don’t look much better than the awful 0-7 Raiders. Geno Smith played the worst game of his career; which says a lot considering he has played some pretty terrible games. He threw three interceptions in the first quarter against Buffalo and was ultimately benched because of it. Of course, Vick wasn’t much better. He threw one interception and fumbled twice in relief. I’m not sure whats worse, the fact both of them combined for 6 turnovers, or the fact Geno Smith had more completions to the Buffalo Bills than he did his own team. Either way New York’s 2014 season is finished.
• Tom Brady had an October to remember and capped it off in week seven blowing out the Bears 51-23. Chicago couldn’t do a single thing to stop Gronkowski, he finished with 3 touchdowns and 149 yards, ensuring us that the old Gronk is back. While Chicago’s season seems to be doomed. They had high expectations this year and lost defensive end Lamar Houston to a season ending ACL tear celebrating a meaningless sack down 48-23, that has to hurt them going forward.
• Just when it looked like Philadelphia was going to cover two points Carson Palmer hooked up with Joe Brown for a 75 yard winning touchdown. Arizona has been on fire since last season going 13-3 in their last 16 games and look like the best team in the NFC West. Big expectations for them going forward with analysts putting them behind only the Broncos in power rankings.
• Roethlisberger compiled the best game of his career against Indianapolis and lead Pittsburgh to a 51-34 victory. Ben finished 40-49 for 522 yards and a ridiculous 6 touchdowns. Making him the first quarterback in NFL history to have two career games with over 500 yards passing. Extremely impressive, but disappointing it happened with all my marbles riding on Indianapolis to cover 3-points. 
• The Cowboys lost their first game since week one against Washington on Monday night, but that isn’t all they lost. Tony Romo left late in the third quarter after getting kneed in the back by a Washington defender and never returned. He has been diagnosed with a back contusion and with that the Cowboys hot streak could end. As much as their offensive line and Demarco Murray has been carrying this team this season, Romo is a vital part of the offense and undeniably a better option than backup Brandon Weeden. 

AFC SOUTH VS AFC NORTH 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-10.5) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) looked to build on last weekends momentum when they welcome Jacksonville (1-7) into Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. Jacksonville is fresh off their 7th loss of the season and with another could be outside the playoff picture for a 10th consecutive season. While the Bengals bounced back in a big way after suffering an embarrassing shut-out loss against the Colts, they defeated division rivals Baltimore. Looking ahead to their game this weekend Oddsmakers have listed them as enormous 10.5-point favourites with a total set of 43.5 for this matchup. 

Anytime a team is favoured by two or more scores its hard not to like the underdog, but in this case I see tons of value in Cincinnati. The Bengals have gotten their record back on track with a huge win against Baltimore and play their second home game in two weeks. This is absolutely critical for this matchup because nobody has been better at home in the last two season than the Bengals. They are a combined 10-0-1 straight up and 10-1 against the spread since the beginning of 2013; and are winning games by an average margin of 16 points! The Bengals are virtually unbeatable at home and while they have struggled the last couple weeks they are expecting to welcome A.J Green back into the lineup which should give their offense a much needed boost. 

While the Bengals defense has been in somewhat of a slump lately this should be the game they turn that around. Jacksonville sits behind only Philadelphia and New York averaging over two turnovers per game, which isn’t surprising when you look closely at rookie quarterback Blake Bortles numbers. Through six career NFL starts the kid is averaging two interceptions per game in his last two starts failed to post a quarterback rating above 10! This guy might be the future of the Jaguars franchise but he isn’t ready to compete right now. Expect Cincinnati roast Bortles again this weekend, they are averaging two defensive turnovers per game at home this season. Bengals win big back-to-back games and win in convincing fashion. 

TRENDS 

JACKSONVILLE 

• 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games versus the AFC 
• 2-6 against the spread this season
• 10-22 against the spread in the last three seasons when playing with 6 days of rest or less

• 8-4 against the spread the last three season coming off a division game
• 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games facing Jacksonville
• 5-2 against the spread the last three seasons coming of a win against a division rival

AFC WEST VS AFC EAST 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+2) VS MAIMI DOLPHINS 

ODDS: BET365 

The San Diego Chargers (5-3) look to snap their two game losing streak when they enter Miami to take on the Dolphins (4-3) at Sun Life Stadium this weekend. Miami will look to duplicate last years result of a 20-16 victory against San Diego. While the Chargers will try and limit their penalties this time around; last year they took 10 penalties against the Dolphins that cost them 11 points and ultimately the football game. This time around Oddsmakers have listed the Dolphins are 2-point home favourites with a total set of 45 points. 

This marks the second of back-to-back road games for the slumping Chargers. After a scorching 5-1 start the they have dropped their last two games against divisional opponents. They desperately need a win to keep pace in the tough AFC west conference and I expect they get that this Sunday. Miami has been playing some great football this season but rely on their defense and special teams heavily for scoring. They enter Sunday 5th in the league with 14 takeaways already this season, a very impressive number but an area they won’t be able to count on against the Chargers. San Diego is one of the best teams in the league at taking care of the ball with only 5 giveaways all season. Extremely impressive considering Philip Rivers threw two interceptions last week against Denver. Looks for a bounce back performance from them this weekend. Philip Rivers has led the Chargers to a 8-3 record with a smokin’ hot 112 rating since the beginning of the 2013 in all games after throwing an interception.

Miami will have to play a complete game on both sides of the ball if they want to sweep the Chargers in back-to-back seasons, something I just don’t see them doing. The Dolphins defense is nearly dead last in the league when facing third downs. They are allowing teams to convert an average of 6.3 per game, placing them better than only Oakland, Atlanta, Jacksonville and New York in this category. Expect this to an issue for Miami on Sunday as the game progresses, San Diego is 2nd in the league behind only Dallas converting an impressive average of 7.1 third downs per game. Ride the Chargers with pride in Miami this weekend. At 7-1-1, not many teams have a better against the spread record as a road dog since the beginning of 2013 besides San Diego.   

TRENDS 

SAN DIEGO 

• 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 road games
• 3-1 against the spread versus AFC East divisional opponents the last three seasons
• 7-1 against the spread away off a double-digit straight up loss 
• 10-2 against the spread the game before facing the Raiders

• 2-5 straight up in November games the last three seasons 
• 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games at home
• 5-9 straight up when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons 

NFC WEST VS NFC EAST 

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS


ODDS: BET365 


The Dallas Cowboys (6-2) welcome the Arizona Cardinals (6-1) into Arlington Texas this weekend for what should be one of the best match-ups all weekend. The Cardinals enter this game riding a three game winning streak and have been rolling over nearly every opponent they have faced this season. While the Cowboys enter on a shortened week of rest after losing on Monday night against the Redskins and will try to prevent losing back-to-back games for the first time this season. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Cowboys are 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 44.5 points for this game.

This game has Cardinals victory written all over it for a couple reasons. Firstly, Tony Romo suffered yet another back injury on Monday and at this time is listed as very questionable to play on Sunday. The man has two fractures in his back…lets get real, the guy isn’t playing. Without Romo in the lineup this is a completely different Dallas offense. We saw it last week when back-up Brandon Weeden was thrown into the game. I have to say, I was actually surprised to see that Weeden is the back-up in Dallas. I figured after playing quarterback for the Cleveland Browns they just send you out to pasture. But on a serious note, Weeden will not become the first guy all season to light up the Cardinals defense. In 23 career starts he has an average quarterback rating of 26.2,  and has recorded more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes (17). If he starts on Sunday (which I fully expect he does), it is going to be a blood bath. Arizona is averaging nearly two turnovers per game and sits second in the league with a +1.3 turnover margin.

The second reason Arizona wins this weekend is their run defense. They enter this game ranked 3rd in the league giving up only 77.9 yards per game. We all know that Demarco Murry is the forefront of the Dallas attack and if they can become the first team to bottle him up, they should bottle up the Cowboys chances at victory. Brandon Weeden isn’t going to lead the Cowboys to victory through the air; you should already know that. Take Arizona and the points with confidence this weekend, they already cleaned up every other NFC East team this season, Dallas should round that out.

TRENDS 


ARIZONA 

• 2-0 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
• 5-0 against the spread versus NFC East opponents the last three seasons
• 9-4 against the spread were the line is between +3 and -3 the last three seasons
• 11-3 straight up were the line is between +3 and -3 the last three seasons 

FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 26 – COWBOYS 17

AFC WEST VS AFC EAST 

DENVER BRONCOS (-3) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

ODDS: BET365 

Two of the best quarterbacks of this generation are set to square off this weekend when the Patriots (5-2) welcome the Broncos (6-1) into Gillette Stadium. New England has been unstoppable lately winning four straight. While the Broncos has found stride themselves, they haven’t lost since week three in Seattle and aim to get revenge for their overtime loss last season in New England. Oddsmakers have listed Peyton Manning and the visiting Broncos as 3-point road favourites with a total set of 55-points.

This will mark the 14th time in history that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have squared off against one another. Brady holds the definite edge with a 10-4 record against Manning but I expect Peyton to improve that this weekend. Denver is a freight train right now and they look unstoppable. If you don’t believe me just look at the statistics, they are near the top or first in the league in nearly every important category. They enter week eight 1st in scoring averaging 32 points per game, 1st in red zone scoring percentage (TD only) at 82.61%, 1st in yards per play at 6.2, 4th in yards allowed per game at 315, 6th in points allowed per game at 20 and 6th in total sacks at 23. I am well aware that we are talking about Tom Brady and a Patriots team that has averaged  39 points per game their last four outings, but they aren’t facing the Jets or Bears, they are playing a very well rounded defense in Denver. They have been fantastic against other strong quarterbacks already this season like Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers, expect them to contain Brady this weekend. This game has revenge written all over it.

Denver suffered one of their most heart breaking losses last season in Foxborough. Walking into half-time up 24-0 against the Patriots they managed to blow the lead and allow New England to clean up in overtime on a lucky bounce off a punt. Don’t expect another big comeback this time around when the Patriots fall behind. Denver is 2nd in the league giving up merely 6.1 yards per passing completion and getting pressure on Manning has been extremely difficult. Their offensive line is tied for 2nd place in the league surrendering only 6 sacks all season. Look for Wes Welker to earn his first victory against his former team this weekend.

TRENDS


DENVER 

• 5-1 against the spread after playing the Chargers 
• 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games in November 
• 3-0 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season
• 25-11 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons