October has come to an end and with that we enter our first games in November. Several teams have struggled to this point in the season while others have pretty well stamped their ticket into the post season. This is what I am taking away from last weekends matchups;
- The Panthers look like the real deal and could challenge New Orleans in the NFC South. They are on a three game win streak and have won each by an average of 19 points. But tough roads lay ahead as they face both San Francisco and New England and New Orleans twice in the coming weeks. Should make for a good finish in the South.
- The 49ers might have stumbled out the gate going 1-2 but since they are 5-0. Nobody has challenged them since Indianapolis, while Colin Kaepernick seems to have found his grove running for three rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks.
- The Chiefs continue down the undefeated road knocking off the Browns at home this past week. They enter Buffalo this weekend but the real challenge lies next weekend when they take on division rivals Denver.
- Detroit had their biggest win of the season on sunday against the Cowboys. Calvin Johnson absolutely destroyed the Dallas secondary exploding for 329 yards receiving. He had more yards himself than the entire Dallas offense combined! Absolute heartbreaker for Cowboys fans especially after their defense forced four turnovers.
- The Giants knocked off division rivals Philly and have secured back-to-back victories. They are entering their bye week but things could get interesting with them carrying momentum and a “we have nothing to lose” attitude for the remainder of the season.
- New Orleans improved to 6-1 and are off to their best start since 2009. Drew Brees destroyed the Buffalo defense for 5 touchdowns and 330 yards. It will be challenging for their offense if Graham is ailed with his foot injury for the rest of the season, but going forward its going to be difficult to bet against them.
- Oakland might have their hands on something with Terrelle Pyror. He ran for 93 yard and a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage against Pittsburgh this past weekend. The direct beneficiary of him under center has been Darren McFadden. He had his first two touchdown performance since 2011 and with the option threat of Pyror teams will no longer be able to stack the line. I really like them going forward especially in underdog situations.
- The Falcons continue to stumble and got smashed by Arizona last weekend. The game unfolded nothing like I predicted, going forward its going to be difficult betting on this team. Who knows which offfense or defense will show up any given week.
- The Seahawks improved to 7-1 for their best start in franchise history. This was a real nail biter and it literally came down to the final play of this game for who would walk away victorious. Unfortunately the Rams play calling is atrocious and no indication points towards things getting better for this injury riddled franchise.
Its been a really tough couple of weeks for this guy. Picking five games last weekend I once again somehow went below .500 with a 2-3 record. I officially sit at 10-18-1 this year and need a much better second half to the season if I have any hopes of finishing with a respectable record. Lets take a look at the games I like this weekend…
NFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
ATLANTA FALCONS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-7.5)
ODDS: BET365
Kicking off at 1PM EST the Carolina Panthers (4-3) welcome Atlanta (2-5) into Bank of America Stadium for the first matchup between these divisional rivals this season. Carolina aim to improve on their 1-5 record versus Atlanta in the last three years, while the Falcons are so hobbled with injuries are still looking for their first road win this season. For this matchup oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 7.5-point favourites with a total set of 44 points.
Carolina officially has a winning record for the first time since their 2008 season. Much has changed in this franchise since then, and hard to ignore what this football team has been accomplishing the last couple weeks. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games and nothing leads me to believe they won’t accomplish that again this weekend. Atlanta has held only one opponent this season under 27 points. While many analysts have been focusing on how the Falcons offense is riddled with injuries; my concerns surround how their defense has played this season. They rank 22nd in the league in both yards allowed per game (363) and points, giving up 26.3 per game. Looking further it is not hard to see why, not many teams have been worse on third down than the Falcons defense. They are allowing teams to convert 44% of the time and Carolina could make that percentage worse. The Panthers rank 4th in the league at converting third downs completing them 45% of the time.
Atlanta needs a complete game both on offense and defense if they are going to challenge Carolina, unfortunately this team hasn’t accomplished that once all season long. They are presently -5 in the turnover margin this year and have to secure the ball in this matchup. Carolina is one of the premier defensive teams in the league allowing only 301 total yards per game (3rd), 13.7 points per game (2nd) and are one of the best in the turnover margin in the NFC at +7. Only a flawless performance all around will give Atlanta any chance in this game. While you can’t overlook the fact Carolina beat Atlanta last year in Bank of America stadium 30-20.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 1-4 against the spread versus at team with a winning record
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as an underdog
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games versus the NFC
CAROLINA
- 9-1 as divisional favourites in games 5-8
- 9-2 off three or more against the spread wins versus divisional opponents
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 6-1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 13 – PANTHERS 30
AFC SOUTH VS NFC WEST
TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
ODDS: BET365
In one of the less anticipated game this weekend we see the Tennessee Titans (3-4) enter St. Louis to take on the 3-5 Rams. The Titans have lost three straight and aim to turn things around as they welcome Jack Locker back, while the Rams themselves are attempting to end a two game losing skid. Oddsmakers have listed the Titans as 3-point favourites with a total set of 39.5 points.
Not many things are going right for either one of these teams right now but I envision a turn around for the Titans this week. Tennessee enters this weekend fresh off their bye week and have had 14 days of rest since their last game. Not to mention their last three losses have come against Seattle, San Francisco, and Kansas City, some of the most elite teams in the league. St. Louis is nowhere near that stature, and while many will argue they looked great against Seattle this past monday, I say don’t overlook that they are playing on a shortened week of rest.
The Rams enter this game holding Seattle to only 44 yards rushing last week, but overall they rank 23rd in the league giving up an average of 116 yards per game. While Chris Johnson hasn’t been an elite running back this year he is due for a breakout performance and I’m predicting this will be it. St. Louis has already allowed both Frank Gore and Demarco Murray to run for over 150 yards against them this season.
Expect this to become a defensive showdown with Tennessee holding the better hand. St. Louis has been terrible offensively this year ranking 30th in the league. They are averaging 303 yards per game and through 8 weeks of football have yet to score a rushing touchdown. Combine that with the fact that Tennessee ranks 7th in the league in passing defense, if St. Louis falls behind in this game their chances of throwing touchdowns to get back into this game seem extremely unlikely.
TRENDS
TENNESSEE
- 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
- 4-0 in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss
- 9-2 straight up with rest
- 8-2-1 against the Rams off back-to-back losses
- 7-3 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
RAMS
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 9
- 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games after allowing less than 250 total yards of offense in their previous game
- 0-3 in their last three games versus Tennessee
FINAL SCORE – TITANS 23 – RAMS 16
AFC WEST VS AFC EAST
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS (+3.5)
ODDS: BET365
The Bills (3-5) return home this week after a two game road trip and welcome Kansas City (8-0) into Ralph Wilson Stadium. This is the first road game the Chiefs have played since week 5 in Tennessee, and are aiming to stay the only undefeated team in football. Oddsmakers have instilled Kansas City as 3.5-point favourites with a total set of 40 points.
Buffalo enters this game behind only Kansas City in defensive sacks on the year. They have a total of 27 on the season, with 11 coming off the hands of Mario Williams. Its nice to see that he is finally beginning to earn the massive contract he signed two years ago. One of the keys to this matchup will be how the Chiefs offensive line handles Williams, they currently rank 24th in the league and have given up 24 sacks already this year.
While Kansas City has been one of the biggest surprised in the NFL this season and on paper these two teams might not seem so similar; Buffalo always plays great at Ralph Wilson Stadium. This season they post a 2-2 record at home and the calibre of teams they have faced speaks for itself. The two losses come against New England by two points, and Cincinnati by three in overtime. While the two victories came at the hands of Baltimore and Carolina. Its hard to imagine the Bills taking down the undefeated Chiefs on sunday, but I do expect a very close result in this game. Look for them to challenge Kansas City in this game and for the home crowd to play a large part in it.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss
- 8-19-1 against the spread in their last 28 games as a favourite
- 0-9 versus the AFC East
- 2-7 off straight up win but against the spread loss
BUFFALO
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10 points
- 4-0 in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss
- 6-0 in their last 6 games versus Kansas City
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 24 – BILLS 23
NFC EAST VS AFC WEST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+2.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
ODDS: BET365
The Philadelphia Eagles will land on the west coast this sunday to take on the Raiders for their first matchup in Oakland since 2009. The Eagles are within arms reach of the NFC East division at 3-5 and are attempting to end a two game losing skid. While the Raiders look to build on momentum gained from their victory last weekend at home against Pittsburgh. Oddsmakers have listed the Raiders as 2.5-point favourites with an over/under set at 45.
It was Oakland Raiders that looked the better of these two team last weekend but the Eagles are due for a breakout game. Philadelphia has mustered only 10 combined points in their past two weeks, the Chip Kelly offense has be snake bitten and can’t seem to get any rhythm. They will be without Michael Vick again this week due to injury so Nick Folk will take the reins and orchestrate this offense. Look for the Eagles to establish the run game early; getting McCoy involved in the offense will be pivotal for their success.
Oakland enters this game ranked the worst passing offense in the league. Victories for the Raiders this season have come off the legs of quarterback Terrelle Pyror, rather than his arm. If he can’t pick up first downs early by running the ball Oakland could get themselves into trouble. Keep an eye on how the Raiders offensive line handles the Eagles pass rush, they have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league this year averaging 4.1 per game. Philadelphia is due for a bounce back game, look for Chip Kelly’s hurry up offense to play a large part in this game.
TRENDS
PHILADELPHIA
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 road games
- 20-9 against the spread in their last 29 games as a road underdog
- 8-2 against the spread after playing NYG and facing an opponent with a below .500 record off a win
OAKLAND
- 0-7 straight up against the spread off straight up home dog win
- 0-5 versus NFC East opponent off back-to-back losses
- 6-18 against the spread in their last 24 games as home favourites
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 31 – RAIDERS 23