Alright folks, first off I’d like to say sorry for missing last week and not posting any predictions. I was in Toronto at the Buffalo Bills game and found little time to research and write before the weekend showed up. Going into week 8 we have four teams going in their bye weeks; the Panthers, Lions, Jaguars and Vikings. While we get the chance to see if the last undefeated team in the Packers can continue their perfect record to 8-0 after coming off their bye week.
Looking to this upcoming week following my week 7 predictions my record is 8-4. This week I have some bold choices in the spreads that should either make folks jump aboard once becoming convinced or scrutinize them with your own personal predictions.
For this weeks picks I’m going to compare spreads from Proline and SportsBook.com to show you the difference in odds and how this can play a huge part in picking winners. Here are this weeks spreads
GAME 1
San Francisco (-4.5) @ Washington
I chose this spread as my first for the week for a couple different reasons. Firstly because the skins suck this year. Recall back to my week 6 predictions when I stated that they suck this year and their 3-1 record was a terrible indicator of how god awful this team actually is. Since then they have not won a game are 3-4 going into week 9. This is a desperate game for them if they hope to stay in the races of the difficult NFC east division of the cowboys, giants and eagles. Yet I still just can’t see them coming close to winning this game. The 49ner’s have the second best record in the NFL only behind the Packers. They are 6-1 and have the best rush defense in the league. Not that really matters for this game because Washington isn’t going to be able to move the ball once again, their running back situation has been terrible since losing Tim Hightower for the season and John Beck….well I don’t have to say much about that, its John Beck. He look horrible last week when they were shutout against the bills and they are the 26h ranked defense in the league! Beck’s favorite target now that Santana Moss is out with a broken hand was Fred Davis…but oh wait, he suffered a grade 1 ankle sprain last week. Maybe thats why they sucks so hard last week. This team has been bitten hard in the last couple weeks by the injury bug and with no great running back, wide receiver or tight end left on the depth chart they are gonna have a hard time moving the ball down the field.
As for San Francisco they seem to be getting better with each game they play. The only game they lost this year was two Dallas in week two and if anyone remembers that game Dallas hit a last second field goal to put it into overtime and then won it. If it weren’t for that game the 49ners could very well have been still undefeated. Frank Gore has been playing like a monster this year averaging 4.8 yards a carry and Alex Smith is finally getting on the same page as Michael Crabtree with the last two games these two combining for 14 catches over the last two games and 1 TD.
FINAL – 49ners 27 – Redskins 14
GAME 2
New York Giants @ New England (-8.5)
I chose this game as my second pick and for New England to beat the spread of -8.5 at home for a couple of different reasons. Firstly New England is coming their second loss of the season last week against the Steelers and not since 2009 has New England lost back-to-back games. They are gonna come out hot in this game and Tom Brady is gonna be exploiting the Giants secondary all day. Don’t be surprised to see Brady throw for over 300 yards and 3 TD’s during this game. The Patriots should also have no problem running the ball for this 3rd and short yardage first downs with the Giants ranking 28th in rush defense in the league. The Gaints played well last week and had the come from behind win against Miami to keep them without a win, but don’t forget that was Miami; and they did almost lose to them. Remember this….the Patriots are much much better than the Dolphins.
The second reason I picked the Patriots to beat this spread and blow out the Giants is simple, take a look at the Giants depth chart. Ahmad Bradshaw is doubtful for this weeks game with a foot injury, and Hakeem Nicks is in that same boat with a hamstring injury. Those two players I argue are the best offensive weapons on the Giants have, without them Eli Manning is gonna struggle. The Giants are gonna look terrible in this game and the Patriots crowd is only gonna make it harder for them to get their offense moving. This game isn’t even going to be close.
FINAL – Giants 17 – Patriots 38
GAME 3
Green Bay (-7.5) @ San Diego
Looking into this game there is a few reason’s I chose Green Bay to beat the -7.5 spread in San Diego. Firstly the Chargers are coming of a monday night game and had little to time rest and prepare for the best team in football right now. In conjunction with this Green Bay is coming off their bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for this Chargers team that has looked less like themselves of old this season. Philip Rivers has probably been the biggest bust in fantasy football this year, he has thrown at least one interception in every game of the season except one and is averaging about 2 interceptions a game. Not to mention last week is lost the game for them when he fumbled the snap late in the forth quarter to give the chiefs the ball back in time to kick a game tying field goal and win the game in overtime. We can’t blame it all on him though, V-Jax has been aweful this year only going for over 100 yards in 2 games after the Chargers slapped the franchise tag on him this past offseason. While Antonio Gates seems to no longer be the best tight end in football; hampered by an ailing foot injury. These guys need to step their game up huge to keep this game in reach because Green Bay’s offense will be rolling as usual.
Aaron Rodgers has quickly become the best quarterback in football this year averaging 338 yards a game and throwing for at least 2 touchdowns in every game this season. His arsenal of weapons is undeniable with Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Findley. The Chargers may have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league but Rodgers does such a good job finding an open man and spreading the ball around making him pretty close to unstoppable, a great figure is that nobody has scored more TD’s though the air this season than Green Bay’s 20. Look for them to pick up right where they left off going into their bye week with a win in San Diego this week and in high flying fashion. Don’t be surprised if they employ a bit more of a run attack in this game once Green Bay gets a nice lead and start to control the clock.
FINAL – Green Bay 35 – San Diego 17
GAME 4
Cleveland @ Houston (-11.5)
Alright so my last pick for the weak is a little of a risky one but I’m feeling it. The more I look at the more I like it. Houston has only lost 1 game all year at home while Cleveland looked aweful against San Francisco last week. While they are the best team in the league against the pass the 49ners managed to pick them apart and I don’t expect this week to be any different. Look for Houston to stay with their top ranked rushing attack on offense and Arian Foster to play a large part in winning this game for the Texans. The Brown’s rank 26th in the league against the run meaning Foster should see many touches and holes for him to blow past defenders and put up a solid day for fantasy owners.
Looking at Cleveland’s offense I don’t think there will be much hope in this game. Houston ranks 5th against the pass and 6th against the run in defensive categories. Not that it really matters though at Cleveland has nobody on offense that can do anything with the ball! Peyton Hillis has been invisible this year, the guy goes from making the Madden 12 cover to nothing within a couple months. He has been injury prone since the beginning of the season and this shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone when you see his gound and pound style of running. Going further down the depth chart Montario Hardestry stepped in to replace Hillis and last game he injured his calf ruling him out to play this week bringing out Chris Ogbonnaya. Thats right, I don’t even know how to pronounce his name but none the less this man will be starting for Cleveland this week. It should be interesting to see how he fills the shoes but I find it difficult to see the Brown’s pull out a win in this one when anyone but Hillis is the man carrying the ball out of the back field.
FINAL – Browns 10 – Houston 45