Alas, there is only one team left after seven weeks without a victory; the pitiful Oakland Raiders. Jacksonville earned their first win of the season in week seven defeating the Cleveland Browns. While the Raiders fell to 0-6 after a loss against the Cardinals, officially giving them the worst record in football. Who has the best you ask? The Dallas Cowboys!..nobody could say they saw that one coming. Dallas is the only six win team in the league through seven weeks. Before we jump ahead to this weekend, here is a little mash-up of last weekends action.
- The Jets nearly beat the Patriots on Thursday night football in Gillette Stadium. Geno Smith didn’t look that bad and recorded his first game this season without an interception. Whats more impressive is the Jets rushed the ball for over 200 yards, didn’t turn the ball over once, and still lost! Making them the first team in NFL history to do so. As for the Percy Harvin trade late in the week, what’s the point? They are 1-6, have no shot at the playoffs, and are grasping at straws. Looking like this will be Rex Ryan’s last season as the Jets head coach.
- The Ravens demolished the Falcons in Baltimore. Pushing the Ravens record to an impressive 5-2 this season and 3-1 at home. This game was a blowout early and the Baltimore never looked back. Atlanta looks fragile right now, anyone looks capable of scoring points against this defense. They have given up 27 or more points in each of their last four games.
- Seattle suffered their second consecutive loss this past weekend in St. Louis. Jeff Fisher pulled out all the stops including a fake punt inside his own twenty yard line in the 4th quarter to clinch the game. Its looking like Seattle isn’t the powerhouse we expected them to be again this season. They have absolutely no pass rush with only 7 sacks this season, and look extremely average on offense. Should be interesting to see where the next couple weeks land them.
- The Colts shut out the Bengals 27-0 in Indianapolis. Cincinnati went from one of the best defensive teams in the league the first three weeks limiting opponents to 11 points per game; To allowing over an average of 35 in their last three. The Bengals desperately need A.J Green back in the lineup for their matchup against Baltimore this weekend. Without him this game has Raven’s revenge written all over it.
- Minnesota suffered the most heart breaking loss of the weekend surrendering a game winning touchdown with less than five seconds left to the Buffalo Bills. They ultimately controlled the game all day forcing four turnovers but couldn’t move the ball on offense. Teddy Bridgewater has an extremely bright future with the Vikings, but it looks like he isn’t their just yet.
- Detroit had the most surprising comeback victory against New Orleans. This win can be accredited to Golden Tate. He took a five yard slant pass and turned it into a 73 yard touchdown with less than two minutes left to leave the Lions down only 6. Drew Brees then continued his terrible season throwing an interception, leaving Detroit to win the game on a silver platter. Not sure whats more surprising, the Lions are actually coming through in crunch time this season or the fact New Orleans is 2-4 and could still win the NFC South.
- Manning officially broke the record for most touchdown passes completing his 409th on Sunday night against the 49ers. Demaryius Thomas not only caught that record breaking catch, but he also put up his third straight up game with over 130 yards. Its not looking like anyone will be capable of slowing down the Broncos again this year.
Looking ahead to week eight my record sits at 15-12-1 through seven weeks of football. Last weekend I finished an even 2-2 after the Ravens and Vikings both covered, while the Panthers and Browns got crushed. Look no further, this is where I’ll be placing my money this weekend.
AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5)
ODDS: BET365
The San Diego Chargers (5-2) start their two game road trip when enter Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos (5-1) this Thursday. The Broncos have won three straight entering this game and are looking to get revenge for the only home loss they suffered all last season. While the Chargers are coming off only their second loss all season and need to prevent back-to-back losses in hopes of staying in contention for the AFC West title. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Broncos as 7.5-point favourites with a total set of 51 points for this divisional match up.
Don’t even considering betting against Denver this week. They are the hottest team in the league right now and have been steam rolling everyone who stands in their way. The Broncos are a combined 3-0 since returning from their bye week, are averaging 38 points per game, and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points. Proving that Peyton Manning is once again leading the most potent offense in all of football again this season. As for San Diego, they are fresh off a loss and in a prime position to lose another. While Philip Rivers led the Chargers to victory last season in Denver; a repeat result is highly unlikely. The Broncos made some big additions in the offseason to their defense and its beginning to pay off. They have limited opponents to an average of 18 points per game in the last three weeks, while Demarcus Ware and Von Miller are shaping up to be the fiercest pass-rushing duo in the entire league. Miller is currently first in the league with eight sacks and Ware is tied for second with seven. They have been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks the last couple weeks and I would expect nothing less than them to instil that same fear in Rivers on Thursday.
San Diego has found much success this season due to their ability to control ball possession and convert third downs. We got a glimpse of them being exposed last week when Kansas City kept the game close and held the ball a whopping 65% of the game. While I don’t expect Denver to do the same since Manning works his magic so quickly, I do expect them to limit the Chargers third down conversions. Entering week eight San Diego is first averaging 14.7 third downs per game and sit second place converting 51.46% of those. This has been Rivers bread and butter, and the reason for their fantastic start. But with Denver 8th in the league allowing teams to convert third downs only 37% of the time, first downs don’t look like they will be easy to come by. Take the Broncos and lay the points this Thursday, you won’t be disappointed.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games in October
- 4-8 against the spread off a division game the last three seasons
- 1-8 against the spread when above .500 road dogs versus opponents with revenge weeks 5-8
- 1-13 against the spread when above .500 versus opponents off straight up against the spread win weeks 5-8
DENVER
- 24-11 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
- 8-4 against the spread versus division opponents the last three seasons
- 19-6 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 20 – BRONCOS 33
AFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
BUFFALO BILLS (+3) VS NEW YORK JETS
ODDS: BET365
The New York Jets (1-5) look to get back on track this weekend when they welcome the Buffalo Bills (4-3) into MetLife Stadium. New York enters this game on a five game losing streak, the longest of Rex Ryan’s tenure as head coach. While the Bills are fresh off a dramatic win against Minnesota in the dying seconds last weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Jets as 3-point favourites with a total set of 40 points.
New York has been rivalled by only the Oakland Raiders for worst team in the league the last five weeks. They haven’t had a single good thing happen for them since week one, and I don’t expect this is the weekend they get lucky. Buffalo has been one of the best defensive teams in football this season. They are 8th overall limiting opponents to an average of 20.3 points per game, sit 4th giving up only 5.1 yards per play, and are best in the league with 24 sacks. They are going to make Geno Smiths life a living hell. New York relies heavily on their run game to open up passing lanes but Buffalo doesn’t allow that either. The Bills are 4th in the league giving up only 80 rushing yards per game. Points aren’t going to be easy to come by in this game and if the Jets turn the ball over the Bills should have no troubles covering three points. It should help that New York is 31st in the league and -33 in net turnover points this season.
Some of you might be concerned for this matchup because both Fred Jackson and C.J Spiller went down with injuries in week seven. Well I say have to heard of Anthony Dixon? He has seen his fair share of work in the past and with nearly 30 carries this season is averaging 5.1 yards per touch. As for the passing game, I love the fact Kyle Orton looks to be gaining trust in Sammy Watkins. Last game Watkins saw 14 targets for 9 catches, 122 yards and two touchdowns. One which was the game winner in the dying seconds. These two are forming rapport and should have no problem extending that into this weekend against a weak Jets secondary. This being a divisional game where the better team is given three points, I say take Buffalo without hesitation this weekend.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 2-1 against the spread as a road underdog this season
- 67-47 when playing a team with a losing record since 1992
NEW YORK
- 2-8 against the spread off a divisional game the last three seasons
- 1-5 against the spread in all games played this season
- 1-4 against the spread in their last five games played a home
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 20 – JETS 17
NFC EAST VS NFC WEST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+2.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
ODDS: BET365
The Arizona Cardinals (5-1) return home this weekend and welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) into University of Phoenix Stadium for a late afternoon kickoff. Philadelphia is fresh off their bye week and have had over 13 days to prepare for this matchup. While the Cardinals currently have a stranglehold of the NFC West and would only extend their lead with yet another win. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Cardinals as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 48 points for this game.
Arizona has been one of the hottest team in the NFC this season with a 5-1 record, but I expect the Eagles could be their kryptonite. Chip Kelly once again has this Philadelphia offense amongst the highest scoring teams in the league. They are averaging 30 points per game this season while doing a majority of their damage through the air; an area that Arizona has struggled in this season. Through seven weeks the Cardinals sit 31st overall surrendering an average of 284 yards per game against opposing quarterbacks. Look for the Eagles to be well rested and prepared for this matchup. With Arizona winning games by an average margin of 3.5 points this season, and the Eagles winning by nearly 9 per outing, its hard not to like Philadelphia to cover 2.5 this weekend.
Carson Palmer has been fantastic for the Cardinals since his return but the Eagles defense should be his first real challenge. They shut-out Eli Manning and the Giants 27-0 in their last game and are averaging nearly two takeaways per game in their last three outings. Not to mention they have the best special teams in all of football right now. They are averaging a ridiculous 1.7 non-offensive touchdowns per game in their last three. Jump on this line early because I expect this to become a pick ’em before kick-off early Sunday.
TRENDS
PHILADELPHIA
- 2-0 against the spread in all games lined +3 to -3 this season
- 7-1 against the spread as underdogs off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins
- 9-0 against the spread as road dogs of 3 or more points with revenge versus conference opponents
ARIZONA
- 2-9 against the spread at home off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins
- 4-8 against the spread in weeks 5 through 9 the last three seasons
- 1-3 against the spread as a home favourite of 3-points or less the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 27 – CARDINALS 24
AFC SOUTH VS AFC NORTH
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS
ODDS: BET365
The Indianapolis Colts (5-2) look to extend their winning streak to six games when they travel into Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (4-3) at Heinz Field this weekend. Indianapolis could close out October undefeated with a victory this weekend, while Pittsburgh will be looking to duplicate the 23-20 victory they earned last time they played the Colts. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Colts as 3-point favourites with a total set of 49 points for this matchup.
Indianapolis has been playing like the best team in football throughout October. They have one of the most feared offensive teams in the league averaging nearly 31 points per game, and one of the most revered defensive teams the last three weeks allowing only 13.7 points per game. It should be no surprise they are outscoring teams by an average of 11 points per game; and can attribute much of their success to the season Andrew Luck is having. He has looked second to none for MVP honours averaging a league best 329 passing yards and three touchdowns per game this season. Nobody has been capable of stopping him in the last couple weeks and you shouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to be the first. They have an insurmountable list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention they enter Sunday on a shortened week of rest. All said and done, the Steelers look to be the sixth consecutive team to fail slowing down Andrew Luck and the high powered Colts offense.
You can’t say enough good about Andrew Luck but surprisingly it has been the Colts defense that has been incredible the last couple weeks. They shut out high powered Cincinnati last weekend 27-0 and have held opponents under 17 points in four of their last five games. While the loss of outside linebacker Robert Mathis for the season was expected to hurt the Colts pass rush, they are quietly tied for 3rd in the league with 21 sacks already this season. Expect Indianapolis to pressure Roethlisberger just enough into making some costly mistakes and ride Luck to their sixth consecutive win.
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-0 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 15-5 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
- 8-1 against the spread off a double-digit against the spread win
- 3-0 against the spread as a road favourite of 3-points or less the last three years
PITTSBURGH
- 0-1 against the spread when playing after Monday Night Football in the last three years
- 1-3 against the spread when playing with 6 days of rest of less this season
- 3-5 against the spread versus AFC South opponents
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 34 – STEELERS 24