With October quickly coming to a close this weekend marks the official halfway point through the 2013 season. Several teams are where everyone predicted them to be, but there has been some great surprises like the 7-0 Chiefs, but not without disapointments like the 1-6 Giants. Here is what I liked most about the games this past weekend, and everything else this point in the season;
- The Seahawks stomped the Cardinals in Arizona and face a second divisional matchup this weekend in St. Louis. If they win again this weekend they could run away with the division. In their final eight games they face only two teams with a records above .500 right now, New Orleans and a rematch against San Francisco. Its looking like Seattle is the team to catch in the West.
- Philip Rivers lead the Chargers to yet another victory in Jacksonville improving their record too 4-3 on the season. It is a long shot for them to make the playoffs having to face both Kansas City and Denver twice this year. But you can’t blame that on Rivers, he has a ridiculous 111 quarterback rating this season.
- The Falcons snapped their two game losing skid against Tampa Bay but this was a close one. Going forward Atlanta is going to struggle without Julio Jones and Roddy White until he can recover from ankle and hamstring injuries. Its going to be interesting to see how Matt Ryan can adapt without an elite receiver on his team.
- Somehow, someway, Geno Smith beat the New England Patriots even with Gronk back in the lineup. Of course my opinion is that the referee was off his rocker calling the stupid penalty on the Patriots just when it looked like they would get the ball back. But what can you do, that is what Geno Smith has done all year, one good game, one bad game. This week he is due for a bad one.
- Week 7 is officially listed as every fantasy owners nightmare. Several key offensive player went down with injury. Just some players include Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Jay Cutler, Reggie Wayne and Sam Bradford. Tough day for several NFL teams.
- The Chiefs played stellar defense once again improving to 7-0 and remain the last of the undefeated teams in the league. Some people argue they have an easy schedule, which they do in some aspects. But its hard to deny the talent this team has on defense.
- Peyton Manning lost in his homecoming to Indy which for me was a shocker. He has his first game this season with a quarterback rating below 70 and struggled to move his offense against Indy’s cornerbacks. Which leads me into my next conclusion…
- Indianapolis couldn’t be the best team in the league could they? It might be hard to argue a point against them after knocking off Denver this past weekend. They have had two bad losses but they also have beaten the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos. With each of those team having only four combined losses, its hard to say Indianapolis shouldn’t be in talks with the elite teams in the league.
Heading into week 8 I don’t think I could have made worse predictions in the last three weeks if I had spun the wheel or played pin the tail on the winning NFL team. I’m showing a 8-15-1 record this year; atrocious I know. But hey, isn’t life all about fresh beginnings? Cause I’m sure as hell taking that approach this weekend;
AFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6)
ODDS: BET365
Kicking off the 1PM games this weekend we see the Miami Dolphins enter Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots. The Dolphins have lost three straight and have yet to win in October, while the Patriots try and keep their streak of losing only two back-to-back in the last three seasons intact. Oddsmakers have listed New England has early 6.5-point favourites with a total set of 44.5 points.
Miami has seriously lost their swagger in the last couple weeks after starting the season 3-0. They have gone winless and can’t seem to get anything going offensive or defensively. They currently rank 27th overall in the league averaging just over 300 yards a game total offense and are scoring only 22-points per game. While their defense ranks 21st giving up an average of 23 points per game. There is a simple solution, they need to either start scoring more points, or playing better defense.
Tom Brady couldn’t have been happier to have Gronkowski back last weekend. They might have lost the game but he targeted Gronk 18 times for 7 catches and 114 yards receiving. This to me is only the beginning; dust off the cobwebs, this weekend against Miami will be Gronks’ real coming out party. The Dolphins have serious defensive issues when covering tight ends. They rank 31st in the league and are allowing opposing ends to go for an average of 70 yards and a touchdown each week. Look no further than week four against New Orleans when they allowed Jimmy Graham to post 100 yards and two touchdowns. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Gronkowski surpass 200 yards in his homecoming this weekend.
The Patriots have been stomping Miami for the last decade and haven’t lost against Miami at home since 2008. They laid a shellacking down last season at home beating the Dolphins the 28-0, don’t expect this weekend to be much different. A balanced attack from the Patriots again this weekend improving them too 6-2 on the season.
TRENDS
MIAMI
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 road games
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss
NEW ENGLAND
- 11-0 at home versus a conference opponent off a straight up favourite loss
- 9-2 against the spread off division road game versus opponent off SUATS loss
- 11-2 against the spread off a divisional game the last two seasons
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss
FINAL SCORE – DOLPHINS 23 – PATRIOTS 31
AFC EAST VS AFC NORTH
NEW YORK JETS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6)
ODDS: BET365
The Cincinnati Bengals are aiming to build momentum when they welcome the New York Jets into town this weekend. Cincinnati is undefeated at home this season while the Jets are 1-2 on the road this year. Oddsmakers have listed the Bengals as 6.5-point favourites with a total set of 41.5-points.
My basis for this prediction is off a couple different theories and statistical notions. Some of you might remember how I touched up Geno Smith being inexperienced and unready for the NFL. He has shown potential to win and has proven he can make big plays, but a trend is forming in his performances. Following a big performance like last weeks against New England he tends to throw up an absolute stinker. Here are all his quarterback ratings for games played this year;
WEEK 1 – WIN – 48.5 QBR
WEEK 2 – LOSS – 15 QBR
WEEK 3 – WIN – 85.8 QBR
WEEK 4 – LOSS – 7.8 QBR
WEEK 5 – WIN – 73.2 QBR
WEEK 6 – LOSS – 6.5 QBR
WEEK 7- WIN – 38.9 QBR
Now you see where this trend is going? Jets lose in Week 8 against the Bengals and Geno Smith’s quarterback rating plummets. This kid has only one game this season without an interception and facing the Bengals 13th ranked passing defense, it’s going to be hard for him to make it two. Cincinnati enters this game giving up an average of 15 points per game at home this year. Which should make it awfully difficult for the Jets to win this game, three of their four victories came from scoring 27 points or more.
The Bengals offense enter this matchup smoking hot. A.J Green is coming off back-to-back 100 yard touchdown performances and has Andy Dalton to thank for that. Dalton has averaged 354 yards and three touchdown passes in his last two games. These two have been in sync and nothing leads me to believe that will stop this weekend.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 0-4 as non-divisional dogs of 4 or more points
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games in week 8
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 road games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
CINCINNATI
- 5-0 off straight up dog win versus an opponent off straight up win
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games versus the AFC
- 11-4-1 against the spread in their last 16 games overall
- 17-8-1 against the spread in their last 26 games following a straight up win
FINAL SCORE – JETS 13 – BENGALS 23
AFC NORTH VS AFC WEST
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5)
Kansas City remains the only undefeated team in the league. This weekend they welcome the 3-4 Cleveland Browns into Arrowhead Stadium and look to hand them their third consecutive loss. Oddsmakers have listed the Kansas City as 7.5-point favourites with a total set of 39.5 points.
Cleveland is officially spinning the roulette wheel of quarterbacks for who will be a better quarterback than Brandon Weeden. It has been announced that Jason Campbell will be making only his second start at quarterback since 2011 and expect the Chiefs to make him look like the tin man from the wizard of OZ. Kansas City is the most elite defense in the league and it is reflected in their record this season. Some might argue they have had a easy schedule this season with their opponents posting a 15-26 record; but non the less they are undefeated and do what every good football team does, win games.
The Chiefs defense leads the league in sacks by a heaping margin. They have 35 through 7 weeks and are on pace to break the 84′ Chicago Bears single season sack record. Every time they have faced adversity this year their defense has stood tall and won them games. This weekend should be their easiest game yet. Cleveland has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They have allowed 27 sacks this season and at 61 no team has allowed their quarterback to get hit more times. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Kansas City surpass 10 sacks in a game for the second time this season.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 0-4 vs non divisional opponents with a record above .666
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games as a road underdog
- 0-6 against the spread in road games in weeks 5 through 9 the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games in week 8
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 6 – CHEIFS 24
NFC WEST VS NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA FALCONS (+2.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
ODDS: BET365
The Atlanta Falcons look to prevent their first 0-3 road start since 2007 when they take on the 3-4 Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is will try to gain some traction after losing back-to-back games against division rivals Seattle and San Francisco. Oddsmakers have listed the Cardinals as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 45 points.
Atlanta is off to their worst start since Matt Ryan came in as their quarterback, and Mike Smith took over as head coach. But they enter Arizona this weekend and could easily win back-to-back games while handing the Cardinals their third straight loss. Arizona has been struggling in just about every area this season. They rank 29th in the league averaging only 309 yards of total offense per game but it is difficult to point the blame. Carson Palmer is second only to Eli Manning in interceptions this year with 13. But with his offensive line gaining only an average of 3.5 yards per carry, and the fact Palmer has been sacked 20 times already this year, the entire offense is to blame. The Falcons need a big defensive performance to gain some confidence, this game to me looks to be the one.
While the Falcons have struggled to run the ball this season I expect the return of Steven Jackson should help out. He has bundles of experience running against the Cardinals playing for the Rams for 9 years. Jackson has the ran the ball a total of 289 times against Arizona for 1084 yards, and that doesn’t even including the vast amount of receptions he has. If Atlanta can keep this game close and allow Steven Jackson to get into rhythm and find seams he could be poised to have a big game and his breakout performance as a Falcon.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 12-0 away versus opponent off back-to-back straight up losses
- 25-12 against the spread in game in october since 1992
- 28-13 against the spread in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games versus teams with a losing home record
ARIZONA
- 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games in week 8
- 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games in october
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 24 – CARDINALS 20
NFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-11) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
ODDS: BET365
The Monday Night matchup this week showcases the first of two divisional games between the Seahawks and Rams. Seattle is looking to win their third consecutive game while the Rams are looking to improve on a 2-1 home record this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 11-point favourites with the over/under placed at 43 points.
The Seahawks have the best record in the NFC this year at 6-1 and are 5-2 against the spread across that span. They’ve won each game by an average of 13.5 points and nothing leads me to believe they won’t do that again on Monday. Seattle currently ranked as the 2nd best defensive team in the league allowing only 282 total yards per game and are lead by a stingy secondary which has given up only 6 passing touchdowns this season.
Without beating about the bush, St. Louis is going to have a tough road in the 2nd half of their season. They host Seattle this week, Tennessee next week, then travel to Indianapolis before their bye, only to return and face Chicago, San Francisco, New Orleans and Seattle in the last weeks. It doesn’t get much worse than that, and they are going to be doing it all without Sam Bradford. As most of you know Bradford went down with a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. Without him at the helms of this offense I’m not sure how they are going to function. Frankly I don’t trust backup Kellen Clemens, or their run game, and it doesn’t look like I’m the only one. Ticket prices for this game are a direct reflection, some seats are going for as cheap as $8. Now this could be partially because the Cardinals are in the world series, but I can’t help speculate part of this is because fans know the Rams are going to get blown out. Seattle looks like a lock to improve too 7-1, not much points towards St. Louis gaining any momentum in this game or the division.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 9-3 in their last 12 games versus St. Louis
- 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games played on Monday
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as the favourite
- 27-11-1 against the spread in their last 39 games overall
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road favourite of 10.5-points or greater
ST. LOUIS
- 0-4 in their last 4 games played on Monday
- 3-12 in their last 15 games as divisional dogs of more than 4 points
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games versus the NFC
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 34 – RAMS 17