Week 8 NFL Picks 2012

 Week 7 of the NFL is over and I went 3-1 with my picks last weekend. The only game that didn’t happen as I predicted was the Patriots/Jets game. New England looked like they were going to have a good shot at covering the -10.5 at half-time going into the locker room up 16-10. But the second half was a different story and much like they have played all season long. They blew a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter and it took overtime and a Mark Sanchez fumble for them to squeak by with a win. Here are some other notable things that happened in week 7; 

• RG III is the real deal, he found Santana Moss in the end zone on a 30 yards strike with 1:28 left in the 4th Quarter to put the Redskins on top 23-20. Had it not been for their terrible 32nd ranked pass defense that allowed Eli to find Victor Cruz for a 77 yard Touchdown seconds later, the Redskins would have won or at least held them to a field goal with what time was left on the clock. This was the best game on sunday in my opinion and going forward I know I will be riding the RG III too cover bandwagon…will you?  
• Houston gave a serious spanking to the Ravens. I don’t know whether to contribute this to the fact that they got embarrassed at home the previous week by the Packers, and good teams always bounce back; or the fact that Ray Lewis at his old age really is still that important to this Baltimore defense. 
• Green Bay is back; in their last 2 games they have put up 72 points with Rodgers throwing 9 TD’s and Jordy Nelson catching 4. They have finally found their rhythm and I don’t see anything slowing down the green monster now that they have momentum. 
• Chris Johnson has his best game statistically in over 3 years against the Bills, he rushed for 195 yards and had two touchdowns to go with those numbers. I want to say that he is back, but history shows he is just too inconsistent; I attribute this performance to a terrible Buffalo defense
• Jacksonville blew a 11 point lead at half-time and allowed the Raiders to win after making to many mistakes and turning over the ball in overtime for the game winning field goal. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew crippled this team early and expect to see much of the same in the coming weeks the longer it takes for him to get back on the field healthy.
• Lastly what is going on with Detroit? Stafford still has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game and only has 5 on the season. Same goes for Megatron, he only has only 1 touchdown catch. Last year these guys were two of the most explosive offensive players in the league and at this point would have already combined for 10 Touchdowns. The real reason Detroit is losing this year isn’t because their defense is playing bad; it is that their offense and the fact that these two guys have lost connection. This is adding up to be Calvin Johnson’s worst season in the NFL 

Week 8 showcases 13 games with 26 different teams in action this weekend. Teams on their bye include the Bills, Ravens, Texans and Bengals. This weekend is not only the midway point of the NFL season but also the 6th annual game held in London England at Wembley Stadium. I can’t wait for this Sunday, here are the games I like this week; 

GAME 1 – NFC SOUTH VS. NFC NORTH

     

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS (-8.5)

The first game I am picking this week has the Panthers who are on a 4 game skid versus the Bears on a 4 game winning steak. This trend will continue for a couple different reasons. 

The Bears have outscored their last 4 opponents an average of 19 points per game. They are red hot right now and nobody seems to have a better wide receiver/quarterback connection this year than Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshal. These two guys have combined for 363 yards and three touchdowns in their last 3 games. They look to be unstoppable right now and I don’t see Carolina’s 18th ranked pass defense making them miss a beat. Chicago also has one of the best backs in the league with Matt Forte. Carolina is giving up an average of 120 yards per  game on the ground and last year Forte torched this defense for 228 yards from scrimmage. Put all these numbers together and Forte is in line to have a huge day against this Panthers defense. 

The important matchup to watch between these two will be the Bears defense versus the Panther offense. It will be interesting amidst all the controversy around Cam Newton this year how he performs against one of the best teams in the league. Chicago is #1 in the league right now at stopping the rush and also lead the league in defensive interceptions at 14 this year. I am sure they are already licking their chops at the anticipation of facing Newton in Chicago. Expect this game to be another frustrating day Carolina as a franchise, and Cam Newton as a quarterback. The outcome of this game could spark some changes on the field and in the offices if Carolina can’t find a way to keep it close. Everything in this game points towards Chicago playing big at home and all but crushing the Panthers hope of making the playoffs this year. I love this game particularly because Chicago has their offense clicking and defense stopping just about everything that is thrown that them. They made Stafford, Romo and Luck all look terrible this year. This week it is Newtons turn. Here are some trends I like for this game; 

TRENDS

CHICAGO 

• 4-2 against the spread this season
• 2-0 at home this year when favoured by 7 or more
• Are allowing an average of 11 points against at home this season 
• Undefeated at home this year

• 2-4 against the spread this season
• 4-10 against the spread in the last two seasons as road dogs 
• Cam Newton is 2-4 in his career as a road dog

GAME 2 – NFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST 

  

ATLANTA FALCONS VS  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-1.5) 

The second game I really like this week should be considered an upset because the Falcons are still undefeated; but the Eagles are the birds favoured in this matchup and i’m putting all my eggs in their nest. I know they have been extremely hot and cold in the previous weeks but everything points towards the Eagles playing a complete game this sunday and handing the Falcons their first loss on the season. Nobody can argue that no franchise in the NFL is more scrutinized than the Philadelphia Eagles. Heading into the season critics and fans alike had such high expectations for them; they started 3-3 and to this point aren’t far behind in the NFC East but still they are disappointing. If this was any other franchise and through 6 games had a record of 3-3 after playing against the likes of Baltimore, NY Giants, Pittsburgh and Detroit, the analysts would say they did extremely well. Give them a break, when looking at how they stand at -9 in the turnover margin and are still 3-3 I think they are doing mighty fine for themselves. 

Looking to this game on sunday I can’t wait to see these two teams duel. This might just be the best game this weekend showcasing two of the most powerful offenses in the league. The key matchup to watch will be LeSean McCoy versus the Atlanta defensive line. Andy Reid hasn’t used McCoy nearly as effectively as he was used last year. This guy is one of the premier players at his position; he can block, catch and run the ball extremely well. Last time Atlanta’s defense saw the likes of McCoy they allowed him to rush for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries. That was last year when Atlanta ranked 20th at stopping the rush, this year they have only gotten worse and rank 28th in the league. This will be the key matchup to follow on the day and if the Eagles get the ball moving on the ground then it will open the secondary up and Vick should be able to find D-Jax and Maclin for third and long situations.

Both of these teams are coming off their bye weeks, however the Eagles had many more problems to address. Hopefully starting with those awful fumbling issues Vick has firstly. If I was Andy Reid I would have made Vick carry a football everywhere with him all week long and tell him I never want to see him without it in his hands. I am sure Andy Reid did something along those lines and I would be surprised to see Vick fumble the ball this week. Another key matchup to follow in this game is Philadelphia’s 10th ranked pass defense against the Falcons 8th passing offense. They will have their hands full with the likes of Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tong Gonzalez. These guys have been absolutely torching every secondary they face this year. I imagine Philly has organized some sort of game plan for this. This is going to be one of the best games this sunday, get ready for a ton of scoring. Here are some trends and reasons I really like the Eagles to win this game;

TRENDS 

PHILADELPHIA 

• 2-1 Against the spread at home this season
• 18-7 against the spread after their bye week since 1992 
• 13-0 under Andy Reid after their bye week
• Eagles have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams
• 4-0 in their last 4 week 8 games against the spread

• 0-7 dogs off back-to-back straight up wins
• 1-3 against the spread as road dogs in 2011

GAME 3 – NFC EAST VS. AFC NORTH

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+4.5) VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

For a second week in a row I am riding the RGIII train. It is to hard to bet against this team right now  because right now RGIII is the BEST quarterback in the NFL through 7 weeks. He is leading the league with a 70.4% completion percentage and following last weekends game against the Giants Osi Umenyiora said RG III was “The Best Quarterback” they have played all year. That is saying a lot about this rookie since they have already faced the likes of Tony Romo, Cam Newton and Michael Vick. 

This week we get the privilege of seeing RG III and the Redskins enter Pittsburgh and play against one of the best defensive teams of the last decade. If people weren’t already sick from hearing about Robert Griffen III, following this game on sunday I’m sure everyone will be. I wonder how Andrew Luck is feeling since just about every football commentator and analyst out their can’t stop talking about this guy; this was supposed to be Luck heading into the season. All in all, nobody can deny he has been the more electrifying of the two and has once again made the Redskins actually exciting to watch. Last year they would have been the last game on television I wanted to watch, not just because they had nobody worthy of starting in fantasy football but because they were downright terrible. This year through 7 weeks they have taken the world by storm. In a recent article titled the NFL entertainment index on Grantland, they ranked this Redskins team as the most exciting team to watch in the entire NFL. This sunday will turn out to be no different and RG III will find I way to come into Pittsburgh and keep this game within reach, much like he has all season.

The absence of Troy Polamalu for a third straight game should also make Griffens job a little easier. The most important matchups to follow when watching this game is the Redskins #1 ranked rushing offense versus the steelers 9th ranked rushing defense; and how the Redskins 32nd pass defense deals with the Steelers 6th ranked passing offense. All the trends in this game point towards the Redskins keeping this game close on sunday; 

TRENDS 

WASHINGTON 

• 5-0 away off back-to-back against the spread wins
• 7-0 off straight up loss but against the spread win 
• 3-0 away against the spread this season  
• 35-16 as road underdog of 3.5 – 7 points since 1992

• 0-5 after Bengals 
• 2-4 against the spread this season

GAME 4 – AFC WEST VS AFC NORTH  

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS 

The final game I like this week is the Chargers to come into Cleveland and put the hurt onto the Browns. Now a lot of you I am sure are going well this is a no brainer but actually it isn’t. As much as Cleveland is 1-6 this year they do have a respectable against the spread record of 3-4 and are a much better team at home.

The major reason I really like this game is because San Diego is a good team that suffered the worst 2nd quarter collapse in years against Peyton Manning and the Broncos in their last game. I’m sure everybody at least heard about how the Chargers were up 24-0 at halftime and didn’t put a single point on the board in the second half, leading the way for Peyton to have his biggest comeback in career history and lead the Broncos to a 35-24 win. Even though this was two weeks ago I believe it has only benefited the Chargers to have more time off to think about how they let one slip away. The Chargers are going to come out flying in this game with over week of rest and everything to prove that they are still one of the better teams in the league. This game is also very important for Norv Turner to keep his job as head coach. After starting 3-1 if they lose 3 straight and fall to 3-4 it will cripple their chances of making the playoffs; because they are in the closest division in football over the last decade. Only spreading way for the whispers in and around the media for how Norv Turner should get fired just a little bit louder. I don’t see this happening and is just more reasoning I think San Diego is going to blow the Browns out of the water this sunday. 

Looking into how these teams matchup San Diego has the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the league. This is going to be a problem if Cleveland wants to gain yards in this game because they rely heavily on their rookie running back Trent Richardson to pick up solid yardage and put them in 3rd and short situations. San Diego is going to make this very difficult for them all day long. The other matchup to follow is Ryan Mathews versus the Browns defensive line. Cleveland is near the bottom of the barrel (24th) in the league at stopping the run. Combine that with the loss of their best defensive back Scott Fujita to a season and possibly career ending neck injury, the Browns are in for a tough day against this Chargers team.

This year the Chargers have been a great team at covering the spread in games against average teams. They covered at home this year against Tennessee and in Oakland, Kansas City. I expect them to cover this spread on sunday and here are a couple more reasons why; 

TRENDS 

SAN DEIGO 

• 8-2 after a monday night game
• 9-1 after Broncos 
• 7-1 in 2nd quarter games off back-to-back straight up losses

• 0-4 in last 4 games versus the Chargers
• Have lost last 4 meetings by 6 points or greater