The middle of October is already here and we are quickly nearing the halfway point of the regular season. Following six weeks of action three teams sit at 5-1; the Eagles, Cowboys and Chargers. The Eagles and Chargers were expected to be great but Dallas is a huge surprise. Vegas had them at over/under 8 wins this season, that total looks almost guaranteed at this point. Before looking ahead to this weekend lets take a look at some news from week six.
- Indianapolis won their fourth straight game on Thursday defeating Houston at home. They are 4-0 against the spread across the same span and look like one of the best teams in football right now. Andrew Luck looks to continue his MVP calibre season this weekend when they host Cincinnati. Should be one of the best match-ups all weekend.
- The Browns extended their win streak to three games beating Pittsburgh 31-10 in Cleveland. They are third in the league behind only the Cowboys and Seahawks in rushing yards per game and in my eyes are a real sneaky pick to win the AFC North. Its paying 7/1 right now, great for you Cleveland believers.
- Aaron Rodgers clinched a third straight win for Green Bay on a magical final minute drive. With less than 20 seconds left and no timeouts Rodgers faked a spike and hooked up with Devonte Adams for a first down along the sideline to stop the clock with 6 seconds left. Very next play he connected with Quarless in the end zone for the game winning score with no time left. Miami fans have to feel the sun burn from this loss.
- The Broncos handed the Jets their fourth straight loss and had gamblers everywhere jumping up and down in the final seconds. Just when it looked like New York was going to cover Geno Smith threw a pick-6 with less than 30 seconds to play and gave the Broncos a 31-17 victory. I imagine Vegas dished out a pretty penny on this game. Nobody has faith in New York this season myself included. It’ll be interested to see if Rex Ryan can last the remainder of the season. I think not!
- Baltimore wiped the floor with Tampa Bay winning 48-17 on Sunday. The Ravens defense continues to look like one of the best in football while the Buccaneers don’t look like they deserve to be in the NFL. They have allowed 35 or more points in three of six games played this year.
- Biggest surprise of the week had to be Dallas defeating the Seahawks. It was only Seattle’s second loss at CenturyLink Field since the 2012 season. The Cowboys can’t seem to do any wrong right now winning five straight. They are 4th in total offense per game this season and the best at rushing the ball averaging 160 yards per game. This is in large part to a stout offensive line and impeccable running by Demarco Murray. Murray already has 785 rushing yards this year and at this rate would reach the 2000 yard club.

Expect Cleveland to expose Jacksonville’s weak offensive line and pressure rookie Blake Bortles into turning the ball over again this weekend. Nobody has allowed more sacks than the Jaguars this season at 27, while they are dead last in rushing the ball averaging 69 yards per game. The issues are insurmountable for Jacksonville this season. With a 3-12-1 against the spread record as a home underdog since 2012; it looks like a guarantee the revitalized Brown’s win by at least six points this Sunday.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 3-0-2 against the spread in all games played this season
- 9-1 away versus opponents below .250
- 7-1 against the spread in week’s 5-8 off a divisional game with revenge
- 4-15 against the spread as an underdog between 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
- 3-13 against the spread in home games the last three seasons
- 6-15 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons
NFC SOUTH VS AFC NORTH
ATLANTA FALCONS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7)
ODDS: BET365
The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) return home after a two game road trip to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at M&T Bank Stadium this weekend. Atlanta will be looking to duplicate the 2010 result when these teams met, they won 26-21 on a Thursday night in the Georgia Dome. While the Ravens are playing like one of the best teams in football right now, they are winners in four of their last five games. Oddsmakers have listed Baltimore as 7-point home favourites for this matchup with a total set of 49 points.
This prediction is a no brainer once you analyze these two teams. Atlanta has been the worst team in the NFL when playing on the road since the beginning of the 2013 season. They are a combined 0-10 and are losing each game by an average of 11 points. When was the last game they won? It was Week 15 of the 2012 season against the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately for the Falcons, it’s extremely unlikely they end the drought this weekend in Baltimore. The Ravens have been one of the best teams at home the last three seasons. They are a combined 15-5 when playing at home since 2012 and 4-2 against the spread as home favourites since last season.
Baltimore enters this game 3rd in the league limiting opponents to 16.2 points per game. Matt Ryan is in the elite quarterback class of the league but with the Ravens allowing an average of one passing touchdown per game, he could be in line for another quiet outing. As for the Ravens offense, they should find continued success on Sunday. They are coming off their highest scoring outing since 2012, and the Falcons enter this game 28th in the league giving up 28.3 points per game. Take the Ravens at home with confidence this weekend, nothing points towards the Falcons staying in this game.
TRENDS
ATLANTA
- 0-3 against the spread in all road games this season
- 1-3 against the spread as road underdogs between 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games facing Baltimore
- 25-12 against the spread as a home favourite between 3.5-7 points since 1992
- 7-1 against the spread at home off double digit against the spread win versus non-divisonal opponents
- 7-0 against the spread after scoring 35 points or more versus opponents off double-digit straight up loss
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+7) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
ODDS: BET365
The Green Bay Packers (4-2) return home this weekend to take on the Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Lambeau Field. Carolina is entering their second of back-to-back road games and could solidify a spot the top of the NFC South with a win in Green Bay. As for the Packers, they have won three straight games and look nearly unstoppable averaging 35 points per game across that same span. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 7-point favourites with a total set of 49 points.
Carolina has been playing their best football this season against the NFC North. They have already earned victories against both the Bears and Lions. While the Packers are the cream of the crop for this division, I expect the result in this game to be closer than 7-points. My expectation for this is due to the Packers struggles against the run and the read option on defense this season. They are the worst defense in the league giving up 154 yards per game on the ground, and this weekend have to worry about the threat of a Cam Newton. He is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, and is fresh off a 17 carry 107 yard performance in Cincinnati. It should be interesting to see what he is capable of accomplishing against a much weaker Green Bay defense. Similar numbers again this weekend for him wouldn’t be surprising.
While the Packers have found tremendous success in the last couple weeks, they haven’t faced a defense that can pressure Aaron Rodgers. I believe Carolina has what it takes to do that this Sunday. In two games against the NFC North this season the Panthers have 8 sacks and 3 interceptions. Look for the Panthers to limit Eddie Lacey in open space and contain Rodgers to the pocket this weekend keeping it a much closer affair than expected.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 8-1 as underdogs against the NFC North
- 10-2 after allowing 35 or more points
- 6-0 against the spread as a road underdog between 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
- 2-0 against the spread versus NFC North opponents this season
- 0-2 against the spread versus NFC South division opponents the last three seasons
- 2-10 against the spread versus the NFC South in their last 12 games
- 1-3 in their last 4 home games versus Carolina
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+6) VS BUFFALO BILLS
ODDS: BET365
The Buffalo Bills (3-3) are set to kick-off at 1PM EST this weekend against the Minnesota Vikings (2-4) in Ralph Wilson Stadium. After starting 2-0 the Bills have since dropped three of their last four and find themselves sliding down the NFC East division standings. Lucky for them the Vikings haven’t been much better, they are losers of four of their last five and sit dead last in the NFC North. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Bills as 6-point favourites with a total set of 42.5 points for this matchup.
Minnesota has had back-to-back terrible offensive outings and I expect they rebound this weekend. In the last two games they have mustered only 13 points. The last time they failed to score a combined 20 points in back-to-back games was back in 2010. The very next game they put up 24 points and beat the Eagles in Philadelphia as a whopping 14-point underdog. While Buffalo’s defense is pretty good, I see this the perfect situation for the Vikings to bounce back. The Bills are fresh off a pounding against the Patriots and are giving up 269 passing yards per game (25th) this season. While Teddy Bridgewater will be getting his third start under centre for the Vikings and is a duel threat with his ability to run the ball. Plus, we can’t forget that Buffalo has struggled against mobile quarterbacks the last couple seasons.
Last weekend we got to see the real Kyle Orton. He threw one interception and lost one fumble in his second outing, expect the Vikings to expose him again this weekend. Minnesota ranks 6th in the league against the pass allowing only 213 yards per game while Free Safety Harrison Smith is tied for the league lead with three interceptions already this year. The Vikings secondary is vastly underrated this season and Buffalo has struggled to move the ball through the air at times. Expect Minnesota to contain Sammy Watkins and get just enough pressure on Orton to win their first game in nearly three weeks.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 4-0-1 against the spread away off back-to-back losses
- 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games on field-turf
- 6-2 against the spread after two consecutive losses the last three seasons
- 17-12 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons
- 4-7 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 2-4 straight up against Minnesota since 1992
- 1-7 against the spread after facing the Patriots