We are nearing the half way point of the season and only two teams are left undefeated on the year; Kansas City and Denver. Many people had expected a season such as this for Denver, but Kansas City is a whole other story. Here are some things I liked about week six;
- Green Bay has won their second straight but not without loss. Randle Cobb and James Jones both left the game with injury. Many people expect this to hurt the Packers going forward but with a quarterback like Rodgers I don’t expect them to skip a beat.
- The Bengals managed to grab their first road victory this season in Buffalo. A.J Green had 100 yards and a touchdown for the first time since week one, look for this team to really get it going and pull away in the AFC North.
- St. Louis absolutely embarrassed Houston at home and handed them their third consecutive loss. Fans cheered when Matt Shaub went down with injury but there wasn’t any cheering going on during T.J Yates first possession when he threw a pick-6. This team simply isn’t the same team they have been the last couple years.
- The Steelers finally got their first victory of the season. They beat the Jets at home and were led by a strong defense who allowed only 6 points all game. Don’t expect them to turn into the steelers of the last century but they could challenge some teams in the coming weeks, starting with Baltimore this weekend.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars almost kept it a football game in Denver and put forth the best defensive performance we have seen against the Broncos all year. Plus how can you overlook the fact Justin Blackmon has 326 yards receiving on 19 catches and one touchdown through his first two games this season! He has been an absolute beast for them and if it continues I don’t expect the Jaguars to be winless much longer
- The Kansas City Chiefs have established themselves as the best defense in the entire league with their performance at home against Oakland. They have yet to allow more than 17 points this season and lead the league with an absurd 30 combined sacks already this year. I can’t wait for week 11 when they face Denver for the first time; its could be one of the best games all year.
- Sean Payton is kicking himself after running the ball three times in New England and giving Tom Brady one last shot to win the game; which incase of you missed it, he did. Jimmy Graham was held catch-less and the Patriots did everything to barely squeak out a victory at home, yet somehow I feel like Gronkowski’s return couldn’t come sooner for this offense.
- The Chargers beat up the Colts on monday night and Andrew Luck was held without a touchdown for the first time this season. Philip Rivers has been the comeback player of the year and it looks like all this team needed was a coaching change. It’ll be tough to bet against them in the coming weeks with both Jacksonville and Washington in the schedule.
As we wrap up six weeks in the league my record continues to get progressively worse. Last weekend I posted my second back-to-back weekend below .500, going 1-3 once again. My record officially sits at 7-12-1 and I’m gonna need a couple weeks to dig myself out of the hole I seem to have placed myself in. Lets take a look at who I’m betting my money on this week;
AFC SOUTH VS AFC WEST
HOUSTON TEXANS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5)
ODDS: BET365
The Houston Texans enter Kansas City this weekend to take on the undefeated Chiefs and have high hopes of ending their three game skid. The Chiefs (6-0) are on a mission this season, if the playoffs started today would be the number one seed out of the AFC and Denver would be snubbed without a bye. Oddsmakers have rightfully made the Chiefs 6.5-point favourites with an over/under set at 39.5.
Fortunately for Texans fans their team won’t have to face another NFC West opponent this sunday; unfortunately this game could be their biggest challenge yet. Kansas City is the most well rounded team in the league and easily make a case to have the best defense in the NFL. Overall this squad sits first in points allowed per game at 10.8, first in defensive sacks at 30, and tied for first in interceptions with 10. As if it wasn’t horrible enough already for Houston they won’t even be able to play to their strength and run the ball; Kansas City has allowed only two rushing touchdowns all season long.
Fumbles, Turnovers and costly defensive penalties have been the story of the Houston Texans 2013 season. They are going to try starting off with a clean slate this weekend, but on top of Kansas City being a great football club Arrowhead stadium is one of the hardest in the league to play in. The Texans are in line for a bounce back game, unfortunately it won’t be this weekend. Unfortunately I don’t expect that game to happen this weekend with backup T.J Yates under center.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 0-6 against the spread in all games this season
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following a loss
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus the AFC
KANSAS CITY
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games overall
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games in october
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 13 – CHEIFS 27
AFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) VS NEW YORK JETS
ODDS: BET365
In the second and final matchup between these rivals this season the New England Patriots (5-1) enter New York (3-3) with high hopes of extending their AFC East divisional lead. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 3.5-point favourites with a total set of 43.5 points.
I like this game for purely two separate reasons; Rob Gronkowski has been cleared to play this sunday, and the Jets have Geno Smith as their starting quarterback. The last time Gronk suited up was week 11 last season against the Colts and he posted 137 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches…injured. He is going to destroy this secondary, the Jets currently rank 16th in the league against tight ends and are allowing an average of 50 yards a game. They allowed Tony Gonzalez to catch 10 passes and go for almost 100 yards in week five, I expect Gronkowski to blow that stat line out of the water. Plus we can’t ignore the fact that his presence alone should open up the field and allow Brady to find open targets in his wide receiver arsenal.
Geno Smith has looked at times like the savour for the Jets offense this season but he has also had some horrendous outings. I honestly don’t believe that he is ready to be playing in the NFL and his stats show it. Through seven weeks he has posted quarterback ratings of 15, 85.8, 7.8, 73.2 and 6.5. He played the Patriots well in week two but now that Belichick has had a taste I expect them to adjust their defense accordingly. Smith has only one game this season without an interception, look for him to throw at least two on sunday. Patriots win big this time around while Gronkowski reminds the world why he should be mentioned in best tight end in the league talk.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games at home following a double-digit loss
- 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
NEW ENGLAND
- 22-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 games in october
- 12-2 in their last 14 away games
- 45-25 in road games versus division opponents since 1992
FINAL SCORE – JETS 17 – PATRIOTS 34
AFC NORTH VS NFC NORTH
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10)
The Cleveland Browns (3-3) enter Green Bay (3-2) for the first time since 2005 and hope to duplicate their previous performance. Last time around the Browns won 26-24, but if Aaron Rodgers has anything to say history will not repeat itself. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 10-point favourites with an over/under set at 45.5.
The Packers should easily win this game by ten points or more despite injuries in their wide receivers corp. They are facing an AFC North opponent for the second straight week and everyone knows they should have beaten Baltimore by at least 9 points last weekend. This time around Rodgers looks to be without James Jones and Randle Cobb but that doesn’t faze me one bit for this pick. He made all-stars out of nobodies before, why can’t he do it again with Jarrett Boykin? I’m predicting a 400 yard 3 touchdown performance from Rodgers.
While this game should be about the Packers offense I expect it become a game about the Browns lack of offense. Brandon Weeden is officially listed as the starter for Cleveland and has yet to win a game as a starter for them this season. He has a 56.2% completion rate on the year and quite possibly had the worst interception I have ever witnessed in last weekends loss against Detroit. Frankly, how can anyone expect it to get any better this week? Green Bay is averaging 32 points per game and giving up only 14 per game in their 7 home games dating back to last season. Packers continue rolling, handing the Browns their second consecutive loss.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 1-5 against the spread after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog
GREEN BAY
- 15-5 against the spread in home games over the last three seasons
- 10-2 before playing the Vikings
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 22-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 games as a home favourite
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 20 – PACKERS 38
AFC WEST VS AFC SOUTH
DENVER BRONCOS (-6) VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
ODDS: BET365
Primetime sunday Peyton Manning will make his long awaited return to Indianapolis and the couldn’t be more media coverage surrounding this matchup. The Broncos look to stay undefeated this season while the Colts (4-2) aim to extend their lead in the AFC South. Oddsmakers have listed Denver as 6-point favourites for Peyton’s return home with a set of 56 points.
There could not be more controversy surrounding this game following the shots Jim Irsay landed on former quarterback and Superbowl Champion Petyon Manning. He simply ignored the fact that Peyton took the Colts to the playoffs eleven times, and won them one Superbowl. When asked, all he had to mention was how he was “disappointed” in the fact that in eleven playoff appearances they exited after one game in seven of them. All I have to say is if Manning wasn’t already turning satanic on us, (on pace for 60 touchdowns, 6000 yards and 600; 666) he is after those comments from his past GM.. and after all, we can’t ignore the fact Peyton did replace Tim Tebow as Denver’s quarterback, coincidence?.. I think not. Either way the Broncos are going to tear the Colts a new one on Sunday evening at home. Nobody has won more games in Lucas Oil Stadium than Peyton and I expect him to pick up right where he left off. Denver has failed to cover the spread in the last two weeks despite victories. A shortened week of a rest for the Colts means the Broncos are primed for another big win on sunday.
Something I really like about this matchup is the fact Von Miller is finally back in the lineup for Denver. He finished last season with 18.5 sacks and 6 forced fumbles but has yet to suit up for the Broncos this season following his 6 game suspension. Expect him to pick up right where he left off and make the Broncos front seven that much more terrifying.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games overall
- 7-2-1 against the spread after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
- 9-4-1 against the spread after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 10-2 against the spread in their last two seasons as a favourite of 3.5-9.5 points
INDIANAPOLIS
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games versus AFC opponents
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 41 – COLTS 31