Week 6 of NFL is over and my picks turned out just as I predicted. I hope there was someone out there lucky enough to read over my picks and throw some money down on them. Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Green Bay all covered and won their respective games as underdogs. Now lets take some notes from last weeks occurrences and outcomes;
- Week 6 Proved to be the week of the underdog and every bettor out their who chose covers across the board was close to being rewarded. The Jets and Bucs were the only teams this past sunday to be favoured in the spread and beat it. That means that in 12 of 14 games played the underdog team at least covered the spread or in some cases beat the favourite. It will be interesting to see if the underdog trend continues.
- Nobody saw the AFC East being this tight through 6 weeks. We are seeing a battle for first place with the Patriots, Jets, Bills and Dolphins all showing 3-3 records. This is something that we usually expect to see in the AFC west; it will be interesting to see who pulls away as the leader in this pack and who gets left in the dust. Would it be insanity to bet against the Patriots and say they will not win the division? I think you would be. Good teams always find ways to win games and make the playoffs, New England has been great for over a decade and have owned this division for the past 3 years.
- Did anybody know that Cleveland was capable of putting up 34 points? Well, apparently they can, they simply outscored the Bengals on sunday at home and became the last team in the league to get a win. In the end Weeden did a great job “readin” the Bengals secondary all day.
- It is turning out to be the year of the rookie quarterback. RG III, Ryan Tannenhill, Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson all lead their teams to wins. The only rookie to lose sunday was the first overall pick Andrew Luck. Rookie QB’s have a combined record of 13-16 on the season. A much better record than many would have expected to this point in the season.
- If the Eagles continue to slide and turn the ball over they won’t make the playoffs. They are in one of the best divisions in football this year now that RG III has thrown his hat in the mix. If Philly fails to make the playoffs for a second consecutive year believe me, we will not be seeing either Michael Vick under center next year or Andy Reed calling the shots.
- The Packers looked like the team everybody knows they could be. Aaron Rodgers had a lights out game against one of the best defenses in the league putting up 6 TD’s and over 300 yards. Look for them to keep the momentum rolling heading into St. Louis this upcoming sunday.
- Lastly there is only one team that stands alone still undefeated on the season. The Atlanta Falcons are the best team in football going into their bye week and are 6-0. They look like the real deal this year and are finding ways to win close games, something that all great teams are capable of doing. My dark horse pick and prediction to win this years super bowl is shaping up nicely.
Last week we saw my picks go 4-0 for the first time this season. I am 7-1 in the last 2 weeks and a combined 15-9 on the season. This week we get the chance to see several divisional match-ups, here is who I like;
GAME 1 – NFC SOUTH SHOWDOWN
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The first game I am looking at this week is a divisional matchup and the first of two meetings this season. The Saints and Buccaneers both need this win in hopes of keeping up with the division and NFC leader Atlanta Falcons. The bounty scandal proved to hurt the Saints more than what people predicted it would. Everybody knew that the loss of Sean Payton might contribute to another 3-4 games lost but nobody saw them starting 0-4. Week 5 they finally got their first win of the season against San Diego and are coming off a week 6 bye. I am sure the week off allowed them to addressed several key defensive and special teams issues in hopes of turning their season around. I personally really like this game for them to get their second win.
Everything else aside, Drew Brees hasn’t skipped a beat and is still the same quarterback through 6 weeks. He is putting up his regular 300 yards and 3 TD performance, it is their defense that is dragging their feet through the mud. Last season the Saints defense averaged a total of 21.2 points allowed per game, this season they are allowing 30.8. That is good right now for 3rd worst in the league, better than only the Bills and Titans. If their defense was that of last year giving up only 21 points a game the Saints would be 5-0 on the season because they are still averaging 28.2 points on offense this year and haven’t scored less than 24. Look for this sunday to be no different. The Saints are leading the league in passing yards per game with 326.8 per game. Couple that with the Buccaneers 31st ranked passing defense in the league and we get another huge day for Drew Brees and the Saints offense. The real question will be if the Saints 26th ranked pass defense can play good coverage and shut down Tampa’s offense and 25th ranked pass. They should have some help with the Buccaneers best wideout Vincent Jackson landing on the injury report earlier this week with a calf injury. The reports still expect him to play this coming sunday but this is something to keep an eye on and could largely affect the outcome of this game.
Lastly it should be noted that the Saints best defensive player and center of the off-season bounty scandal Jonathan Vilma is preparing for a week 7 appearance. He has appealed his suspension and reports say that he is practising this week and we could see him on the field. If he plays he can be a game changing player and could bring the tenacity back to this sloppy Saints defense. If you are still unconvinced look at some trends;
TRENDS
BUCCANEERS
- 2-8 versus opponents with a record below .333
- 1-15 against the spread in their last 16 home games when playing with revenge
SAINTS
- A perfect 6-0 record as divisional road favourites by less than 5 points.
FINAL SCORE – SAINT 41 – BUCCANEERS 24
GAME 2 – NFC EAST SHOWDOWN
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+6.5) VS NEW YORK GIANTS
Yet another divisional matchup and an important game in separating who might take home the best record in the NFC East this year. I am predicting that the Redskins come into New York and RG III puts on another running clinic. I see them walk away winners and tie the division lead all up at 4-3.
Right now the most electrifying player in the league; the individual sports commentators simply can’t say enough good about; and people can’t get enough of in the NFL is Robert Griffen the 3rd. Everybody wishes they drafted him to be their fantasy football quarterback, he is someone I have begun to call “The Rich Mans Michael Vick” and is surpassing all and every expectation people had for him coming into the season. Through 5 games he is averaging over 220 yards and 1 TD through the air, with 66 yards and 1 TD rushing each game. Everybody knew that he would be a great player but nobody knew that it would happen this fast. The Gaints are going to have their hands full this sunday with this man and based on what history tells us between these two I see the Redskins covering the generous +6.5 this sunday.
New York has the leagues 16th ranked rushing defense and will have to throw out all the stops to slow down the Redskins 2nd ranked rushing offense. Everyone saw the 76 yard rushing touchdown that torched the Vikings last week by RG III, this man in the open is like lightning. News came out that he ran the final 40 yards of his 76 yard touchdown last week in 4 seconds…that is unbelievable! I just can’t say enough good things about him. Looking at the other side of the ball the Gaints look to have it easy this week against the Redskins worst passing defense in the league, but I think they will surprise. The Redskins always seem to surprise the Gaints every year, last year 2 of their 5 total wins came against the Gaints. If that doesn’t convince you look at the trends;
TRENDS
REDSKINS
- Covered the spread in their last 3 meetings.
- 8-2 away versus opponents with a better record than .500
- 6-0 as the road dog off a straight up win
- 7-1 versus a divisional opponent off a straight up dog win and a better record than .500
GAINTS
- 1-4 as divisional favourites by more than 4 points
- 0-4 as divisional favourites of more than 5 points versus opponent off a straight up dog win
FINAL SCORE – REDSKINS 26 – GAINTS 24
GAME 3 – AFC EAST SHOWDOWN
NEW YORK JETS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10)
The third game I decided to look at and pick is yet another divisional matchup this time between two AFC east opponents and the tightest division in football. Through 6 games this year the patriots are 3-3, this is the first time since 2005 under Bill Belichick that they have started worse than 4-2. They just don’t look like that Patriots everyone knows and expects them to be. The expectations are always so high for this team, it seems like every year they are Superbowl favourites. In the last 9 years they have made it to the most important game of the year 4 times, winning twice. I am sure the bitter taste from last years loss in the Superbowl too the Gaints is still fresh in their mouths and I am just waiting for them to go on a winning streak. I think that this sunday is where it begins.
The Patriots have been the best team record wise in the NFL for the last decade. Nobody has been more dominate, the second anybody begins to discuss the best quarterbacks of all time, Tom Brady’s name is mentioned. Based on history this team is largely under achieving this year. They are still averaging 31 points game but are not capturing the “W” in games where for the last decade they normally would. They lost to Arizona week 2 on a missed field goal, Baltimore week 3 to a game winning field goal and too the Seahawks last week on a 4th quarter touchdown. This is not characteristic of New England; yet of the 3 games they lost this year it has only been to the tune of 4 total points! Thats means the games they are losing, they are losing by about an average of 1.3 points. I think this week Belichick gets his team back on track and in order. They face the 6th best passing defense in the league the New York Jets but I don’t see this slowing Brady down. He has seem to rekindled his flame with Wes Welker; Rob Gronkowski is getting better each week that passes by and should see more separation now that Aaron Hernandez is healthy again. The Jets on the defensive side have Antonio Cromartie to hopefully shut down one of these guys, but I think the loss of Darrell Revis is really going to be seen in this game.
I like the Patriots to play big this week and come out with real anger. I can ensure you Tom Brady isn’t happy that his team is 3-3 after 6 weeks and his supermodel wife Gisele Bundchen will probably cry and blame the refs if they lose this week. Guarantee that Tom won’t let his wife down, and just the thought of Tim Tebow helping the Jets running back situation is extremely unlikely and god awful. The Jets are entering New England at an unlucky time and that will be seen this sunday. Here are some trends;
TRENDS
JETS
- Have lost 3 of last 4 games at New England
- Failed to cover the spread in the last 3 regular season meetings
PATRIOTS
- 11-0 at home vs conference opponent when coming off straight up favourite loss
- 11-2 off straight up favourite loss versus opponent off straight up win
- 4-2 against the spread in their division in 2011
FINAL SCORE – JETS 16 – PATRIOTS 42
GAME 4 – AFC SOUTH VS AFC WEST
The last game I am picking this sunday and only non-divisional I picking and it is between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. This game features two of the best running backs in the league are both poised to have big days. Jacksonville is allowing an average of 163 yards a game on the ground while Oakland is allowing 111 a game. The focal point will be who’s star running back has a better performance and which defense can do a decent job at slowing down the run. One reason I like this game is it is Maurice Jones-Drew first game ever in Oakland. This is where he was born and raised and played football as a kid. This will be something to watch for and I think will effect how he approaches and plays in this game on sunday. The second reason I like this game is MJD and the Jags are coming off their bye week. MJD in the last 3 years in the game directly following their bye week is averaging 130 yards rushing and 1.6 TD’s. If history repeats itself he will have a huge day on sunday in Oakland.
Taking a step back and looking at both of these teams prospective records are amongst the slums of the league. They each have 1-4 records and each club desperately needs a win on sunday to keep any chance of them making the playoffs alive. The Raiders have the 18th ranked rushing defense while the Jags are the second worst in the league at 30th. An area that was historically a strength of this team. This was pointed out focused on during their bye week I am sure and will come out ready to play against an Oakland team looking to expose their weaknesses. Neither team has much of an advantage in the passing game. Both teams have at best average quarterbacks in Carson Palmer and Blaine Gabbert. I expect them to rely on these guys when they are in third down and long situations but other than I see them trying to play the ground and pound game and feed their star running backs the ball.
This game will be a close defensive battle and an offensive struggle; I believe the team that plays best in the 4th quarter will end up walking away the winner. It will be a nail biter and could turn out to be whoever has the last possession in the 4th quarter will get the chance to kick the game winning field goal. Lets look at some trends between these two teams;
TRENDS
JAGUARS
- 4-0 after allowing 35+ points
- Coach Mike Mularkey is 5-0 away when coming off a straight up loss
- 1-0 against Oakland and the spread in the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND
- 27-61 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992
- 1-11 in 2nd quarter games as home favourites versus an opponent off back-to-back straight up losses
- 4-7 in the last 4 years against the spread when home favourites
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 24 – OAKLAND 27