Week 6 NFL Picks 2014

• The Packers crushed the Vikings on Thursday night football. They forced three turnovers and ultimately had the game in the bag at half-time up 28-0. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t far off when he told people to R-E-L-A-X after their 1-2 start. They now sit at 3-2 and are tied for first place in the NFC North. 
• The Cleveland Browns completed the biggest comeback on the road in NFL history. They were down 28-3 in the second quarter against Tennessee and came roaring all the way back to win 29-28. It’s about time people started talking about how good the Browns have been playing this year. They currently sit at 2-2, but both of their losses have came by three points or less. The way Brian Hoyer is playing this year it looks like Jonny Football might be riding the pine the entire 2014 season. 
  
• The Cowboys narrowly defeated the Texans at AT&T Stadium. Dan Bailey missed a field goal at the end of regulation to push the game into overtime but redeemed himself in extra time nailing a 49 yarder. I’m really not sure what is more surprising, Dallas improving to 4-1 on the season, or the fact Tony Romo was forced into a silent snap-count because there was so many Texans fans in Dallas.  
• The Saints overcame an 11 point deficit to get their second win of the season in overtime. I’m not sure what is going on with the Saints, but they do not look good this year. Brees was without Jimmy Graham most of the day due to injury but either way their offense looked flat all day. It should be concerning for you Saints fans that Brees is amongst the worst in the league with 6 interceptions already this year. 
• Alex Henry missed three field goal attempts and the Detroit Lion suffered their first loss at home this season against Buffalo. It should be noted both Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush injured their ankles in the loss. Either way, Aaron Rodgers is now nipping at the heels of the Lions for first place in the NFC North. 
• The Jets got shut-out 31-0 on the road in San Diego. They only gained 151 all purpose yards and 11 first downs all day. Terrible play of Geno Smith resulted in a Michael Vick starting in the second half, but his performance was not any better. The Jets are really kicking themselves right now. This looks like the first time in years that the AFC East could be up for grabs. 
• The Patriots routed the Bengals in Gillette Stadium and silenced all the critics, including myself. Cincinnati was at no point even in this game and ultimately lost 43-17. I’m thinking the Patriots are a team everyone should stay away from at this point. Way to unpredictable for which Tom Brady is going to show up each weekend.  

• 3-1 against the spread as road favourites of 3-points or less the last three seasons
• 6-3 against the spread in non-conference games the last three seasons
• 9-2 against the spread as non-conference favourites of less than 11 points against opponents with a below .500 record. 

• 1-6 after playing the Saints
• 0-6 before their Bye Week 
• 8-18 straight up as an underdog the last three seasons 

Denver should clean up on defense leaving Peyton Manning to put this game to bed early. He has the Broncos 3rd in the league in passing yards per game and sits behind only Chicago and Indianapolis with 12 passing touchdowns already this year. Picking apart a suspect Jets secondary shouldn’t be an issue as Denver cruses to their fourth win of the season.

TRENDS 


DENVER 

• 12-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
• 17-6 against the spread as road favourites of 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
• 8-3 against the spread versus New York since 1992 
• 9-4 against the spread as a road favourite the last two seasons

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) VS MIAMI DOLPHINS 


ODDS: BET365 


The Green Bay Packers (3-2) travel south this weekend to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Sun Life Stadium. Miami is coming off their bye week and in week four they clobbered Oakland 38-14 in London. While the Packers are coming off their third win of the season and could make it three straight victories with a win this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Packers as 3-point favourites with a total set of 49 points.

Miami has had well over a week to prepare for this game, but I still don’t see them stopping Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense. Green Bay has scored a total of 10 touchdowns and 80 points in their last two games. They have been red hot and it doesn’t look like even the best defense in the league could slow them down right now. Protection for Rodgers was a serious issue to start the season but they have seemingly ironed out offensive line issues. In the last two games Green Bay has given up only three sacks. If Miami fails to pressure Rodgers this weekend then the Packers hot streak should have no troubles continuing. Expect for them to hand off the ball early to Eddie Lacey and once establishing a ground game open up the playbook for play action shots downfield.

Jordy Nelson is having the best season of his career. He is on pace for 1680 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns this year. He has been unstoppable this year and I expect Miami will have issues containing both him and Randle Cobb. With a record of 31-57-2 against the spread for Miami at home since 2003 the Packers should have no trouble covering on the road this weekend.

TRENDS 


GREEN BAY 

• 11-1 versus opponents with rest off a straight up win 
• 6-2 against the spread in October games the last three seasons
• 8-1 straight up in October the last three seasons
• Coach Mike McCarthy is 8-0 when above .500 favourites versus below .500 opponents off a straight up win