Yet another great week of football is in the books. Only three teams remain undefeated in New Orleans, Kansas City and Denver; which at this point makes the AFC West look like the best division in the league. Here is what I am taking away from week five around the league.
- The Browns have won three games in a row since trading Trent Richardson. Brian Hoyer looks to be out the next couple weeks with a knee injury but if Jordan Cameron and their defense keep playing an elite level they have proven a tough team to beat. Nobody could have predicted that after week two.
- The Bengals defense held the Patriots offense without a touchdown for the first time in 4 years. They have looked great while playing at home this season but haven’t tied their road game together quite yet. This week in Buffalo could be that week.
- The Colts came way back at home against Seattle to skyrocket up the power rankings this week. Andrew Luck has won 15 of his first 22 NFL games. Indianapolis hasn’t seemed to skip a beat since letting Peyton Manning go.
- Baltimore was gifted a victory in Miami on sunday. The Dolphins couldn’t get anything going at home and have now lost two in a row. Hopefully they can work the kinks out this week during their bye.
- The Saints are officially the powerhouse in NFC South. They have a four game lead against any other team in this division and with a victory in New England this week we could pretty well chalk them up NFC South champs.
- The New York Giants are 0-5 and challenging the Jaguars for who can finish with a worse record on the season. I’m not sure how much longer Tom Coughlin can last with this noose around his neck. If they fail to win in Chicago this week expect to see major changes around this organization.
- Andy Reid has rejuvenated the Kansas City Chiefs. They have won each football game this year by an average of 14 points and could easily stay undefeated as they host Oakland, Houston and Cleveland the next three weeks. I’ve already got them penciled into my playoff picture this year.
- The Minnesota Vikings signed Josh Freeman and being a fan I have to say that I’m happy with this move. I think he will fit in perfect with them once learning the offense, other teams are too early in writing off his previous success.
- Atlanta fans are quietly writing off playoff hopes for this season with this monday night loss at home against the Jets. This was the first time in Matt Ryan’s career that he has lost back-to-back home games and it doesn’t look like its going to get any better. Roddy White is still nagged with an injury and Julio Jones is officially out for the rest of the year with season ending surgery. This team had such a bright outlook to start the season, unfortunately given these circumstances and their playoff hopes are very bleak.
With week five in the books my record this season is officially worse than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. I’m posting a 6-9-1 record and hoping this week is better for not only myself but any of you crazy bums that take my predictions into consideration when making your picks any given week. Here’s who I like this weekend;
AFC SOUTH VS NFC WEST
ST. LOUIS RAMS VS HOUSTON TEXANS (-7.5)
ODDS: BET365
It has been a rough start to the season for Houston Texan fans. They 2-3 through week five for the first time since 2009 and have lost back-to-back games. This week they prevent to make it three in a row against the NFC West as they welcome St. Louis into town. Oddsmakers have listed Houston as 7.5-point favourites with an over under set at 43.
Desperation mode has been initiated for Houston. They are falling behind in the AFC South and with the way Indianapolis and Tennessee are playing it doesn’t look like the Texan’s will be gifted the division for a third year in a row. It is now or never and I think this weekend at home they will prove they still have what it takes. Houston currently ranks as the best defense in the league allowing only 260 total yards of offense per game and have their their stellar secondary to thank. After five weeks they are allowing over 50 yards less passing than the next best defense in the NFL; and don’t expect St. Louis to give them a challenge this weekend. The Rams are in the middle of the pack in both passing yards and touchdowns this season. They have struggled away from home an are averaging only 311 total yards per game this year, 29th overall in the league.
Expect Houston to set the tone of this game with their defense. They have suffered two heartbreaking losses and they aren’t even to blame. Matt Shaub has thrown 5 interceptions in his last two games and by the 4th quarter last week Gary Kubiak had seen enough and sat him in favour of T.J Yates. Yates has proven he can win football games and lead Houston to a playoff victory in 2011. Look for a bounce back performance from this entire team this weekend in Reliant Stadium.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 5-11-1 against the spread in their last 17 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games overall
HOUSTON
- 4-0 straight up at home after back-to-back losses
- 7-1 at home off back-to-back against the spread losses under Gary Kubiak
- 35-17 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses since 1997
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 17 – TEXANS 31
NFC NORTH VS AFC NORTH
DETROIT LIONS (-3) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns have been the biggest surprise in the NFL the last three weeks going 3-0 both straight up and against the spread across that span. This weekend they welcome Detroit into town and look to make it four straight for the first time since the 2009 season. The Lions are 3-2 on the season and close out back-to-back road games this weekend. Oddsmakers have decided to make Detroit 3-point favourites with a total set of 44 points.
Something I am focused on for this game is the fact Cleveland is banged up at quarterback. Brandon Hoyer looks to be out for an extended period with a knee injury meaning Brandon Weeden is back under reigns. Weeden has failed to lead the Browns to victory as a starter this season and has thrown three inceptions in three starts. Look for the Detroit secondary to eat him alive, they are 2nd in the league with 8 interceptions this season. It doesn’t seem unlikely that this secondary will be play duck hunter on at least one of Weeden’s passes on sunday.
Cleveland might riding a high entering this game winning their last three games but all good things must come to an end. The focal point for me is that Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback that the Cleveland has faced this season. Whether or not Calvin Johnson plays this week I find it difficult to see them containing all the offensive weapons this franchise has. Look for Detroit to bounce back this weekend.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 3-1 away versus AFC North
- 9-2-3 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in October
CLEVELAND
- 0-3 against the spread in their last 3 games versus NFC North opponent with an above .500 record
- 1-6-1 at home against non-conference opponents
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 27 – BROWNS 17
NFC NORTH VS AFC NORTH
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
ODDS: BET365
The Baltimore Ravens look to stay perfect at home this season when they welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers into M&T Bank Stadium. The last time these two teams met was in 2009 with the Packers walking away 27-14 victors. This time around oddsmakers have listed Green Bay as 3-point favourites with an over under set at 48.
I am making this prediction primarily on the fact that Joe Flacco has been playing like a bum this season. He has three more interceptions than touchdown passes this season and sits behind only Eli Manning and Matt Shaub in total interceptions thrown this season. I am predicting that the Ravens will fall behind early in this game and Flacco will be relied upon heavily to throw their way back into this game. Unfortunately for Ravens fans, no defense has more interceptions in the last five seasons than the Green Bay Packers.
Aaron Rodgers enters this game throwing only two touchdown passes in his last two performances. He is in line for a bounce back performance and there is no better time than against a questionable Ravens secondary. Baltimore ranks 17th in the league allowing opposing passers to throw for an average of 245 yards a game this season; and that is against several second grade quarterbacks in Matt Shaub, Brandon Weeden and E.J Manual. Peyton Manning lit up the Ravens for 450 yards and 7 touchdowns in week one. On good weekends Rodgers is just as good if not better than Peyton Manning, leading me to believe the Packers offense is in line for a big day on sunday.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 4-0 in their last 4 games following a straight up win
- 9-0 against non-conference opponents with a record above .500
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as a road favourite between 0.5-3 points
BALTIMORE
- 1-4 in their last 5 games versus Green Bay
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 38 – RAVENS 27
AFC SOUTH VS AFC WEST
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-26.5)
ODDS: BET365
This marks what is supposed to be the most lopsided game this weekend and possibly all season long. The 0-5 Jacksonville Jaguars will attempt to take a chip off the undefeated Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium, but lets be honest that looks EXTREMELY unlikely. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos at a record 26.5-point favourites with the over under set at 52.
Jacksonville have been by far the worst team in football this season. They have given up an average of 38 points in their last three games, while the Denver Broncos have scored 40 points or more in all but one game this season. Leading me to believe that the Broncos could score 60 points at home this weekend.
It doesn’t matter whether Blain Gabbert or Chad Henne starts under center for Jacksonville this weekend they don’t have a fighting chance to pull out a victory. Mind you, they do say that a quarterback is only as good as his offensive line; and Jacksonville’s offensive line has been atrocious this year. They have given up 20 sacks already this season and are averaging a league worst 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. The only chance that Jacksonville has in covering this spread will come in garbage time when Denver takes out their starters. Unfortunately for Jaguars fans I believe all the damage will have already been done. Broncos win big at home and put up yet again ridiculous offensive statistics.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog on the road
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
- 7-18-1 in their last 26 games versus a team with a winning record
DENVER
- 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 5-0 against the spread playing versus teams with a losing record
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 24 – BRONCOS 59