Week 6 NFL Picks 2012

• The Rams can now be considered one of the best defensive teams in the league at home, they are the only team left in the league that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown. They held the Cardinals to 3 points on thursday, ruining their perfect record. I think this is where the Cardinals downward spiral begins… 
• After the Eagles/Steelers game last week we can now see that Vick has serious fumbling issues and the Eagles need to do everything they can to get the ball out of his hands quicker. His week 4 zero fumble performance might have been an irregularity because he fumbled twice again this past week. Bringing the total to 5 on the year! This can’t keep happening otherwise the Eagles are going to have an awfully difficult time winning games. Had Vick held onto the ball and not fumbled on Pitt’s 1 yard line they could have won this game; even if they had settled for a field goal. 
• On the topic of fumbling issues look who is in a sophomore slump…Cam Newton is not quarterback he was last year, he has lost his poise. They have the same record at 1-4 to this point in the season but they should have beat the Seahawks. He missed a wide open 4th and goal on the Hawks 1 yard line because of a terrible throw, he just pitched it in the dirt at the guys feet and then on the last drive of the game with under a minute left fumbled the ball to secure the win for Seattle. They have some issues to address over their bye week.
• The Packers/Indy game was the best one all week and I am disappointed I missed every minute of it. The Pack led 21-3 at half-time and it looked like they had it locked up until Andrew Luck turned into the Aaron Rodgers last year. He hooked up with Reggie Wayne 13 times for 212 yards and the game winning 4 yard TD catch with 35 seconds left to leave Green Bay packing with a 30-28 loss. This game really showed everyone what Luck is capable of and forget that old quarterbacks name…what was it again? Oh yeah Peyton Manning. The Luck era has begun and I can’t wait to see what he can do this week. 
• The Vikings are still atop the NFC North with a win over the Titans last week. If that isn’t a surprise to everyone I don’t know what is….how about that fact that packers are 2-3.
• The NFC West is the only division in football with every team showing a record over .500, It will be intriguing to see if that can continue and for how long. 

GAME 1 

DETROIT LIONS (+5.5) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

I like the Lions to come into Philly this week and cover the 5.5 spread they are given. Firstly everyone knows the Eagles are having serious turnover issues and although are 3-2 on the season, have won every game by 2 points or less! This game will be very similar to the last game these two clashed with Detroit walking away 35-32 victors. Although the Eagles are undefeated at home this season; in their last 5 outings against NFC north opponents they are 0-5. While on the other end of the field the Lions are 5-1 in their last 6 outings following rest versus an opponent with a record above .500. I think that Detroit’s week 5 bye is going to work wonders for them in this game. I am positive that Jim Schwartz gave it to everyone on the team for under performing, focusing on his offense. This year Detroit is averaging 25 points a game, last year at this time they were averaging 33 points a game. That is a full touchdown lost and would have meant a win instead of a loss in a couple games played so far this year. I contribute this to how off the Stafford/Megatron connection has looked. Megatron dropped a clear touchdown last week in Minnesota in the endzone and has only 1 score on the year. Far off from his 2011 totals to this point of 8! I think the bye week has just worked wonders for the Lions, it couldn’t have come at a better time and I believe that their offense is going to explode this week against this Eagles secondary. Look for Calvin Johnson to have over 100 yards on the day and 2 TD’s. He is going to be the Megatron we love and remember this sunday. 

The Eagles will have to use LeSean McCoy better and get back to the ground and pound if they want to win. Focus on getting the ball out of Vicks hands early and often meaning less turnovers and fumbling. Detroit has the leagues 13th ranked rush defense and if they can penetrate the defensive line for big gains it will open the secondary up for Vick to make short passes and give him more time to find the open man and less time to fumble the ball. Detroit is 0-4 against the spread on the year, this is the game they improve that record.   

FINAL SCORE – LIONS 24 – EAGLES 27 

GAME 2

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5)  

The second game I am going with this week is one that we have already seen this year in week 2 when Cincinnati beat the Browns 34-27 at home. This time these two teams face off in Cleveland and I’m taking the Browns! Cleveland does rank among the worst teams in the league with defense in stopping the rush (27th) and pass (25th). However Cincinnati isn’t much better with the 16th ranked pass defense and 19th ranked rush defense. This game might actually be a celebration for those lonely Brown’s fan. A.J Green is going to have a tough time getting yards with Joe Haden covering him all day long; it will his first game back from suspension and he will do a great job at slowing the Bengals offense. Most people would say I am crazy to have the Browns win this sunday, handing the Bengals their second straight loss; but the Browns will win a game this year and I am doubtful it will be on the road.

Looking further at these two teams, trends show the Bengals are 3-2 against the spread this year while the Browns are 2-3. The Browns are the worst team in football, sunday should improve those numbers. Cleveland is 4-0 when at home coming off back-to-back losses and they are 4-0 under Pat Shurmur as head coach as the dogs in football games after back-to-back straight up losses. While the Bengals 1-7 in their last 8 games away versus division opponents coming off back-to-back losses. If all of these trends aren’t convincing you that the Browns are going to at least cover this weekend. Cleveland has won in 9 of the last 16 outings when going by the point spread. Play on the Browns to cover this weekend at home against the Bengals. 

FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 16 – BROWNS 17

GAME 3 

BUFFALO BILLS (+5.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals were the surprise team that nobody saw coming this season. They beat some difficult teams like the Patriots in week 2 and the Eagles in week 3. Last week they lost to their division foes the Rams and I believe this week they are in for back-to-back losses. The Bills are once again one of the most hot-and-cold teams in the league. Some weekends they come out and look like they could have one of the most powerful offenses in the league and blow teams out while other sundays they struggle to score and get lost early. This week is going to be one where they score in bunches. Last week was the first time they were held to under 24 points but they did face the best defense in the league (49ners) and have a difficult running back situation to deal with. Who would you play? Fred Jackson was one of the best backs in the league last year before going down to injury and this year, after getting injured again C.J Spiller became the best running back in the league. They are going to have to find out some kind of time share to insure both these guys gain their touches because both of them can create magic when they are given space and the proper blocking scheme. I feel like this past week they sorted through several of these issues and are going to come into sunday prepared. The Cardinals are 4-1 and the Bills have the leagues 30th ranked defense at stopping the rush but that isn’t of concern because Arizona is terrible at running the ball! If it wasn’t already bad enough they have lost both of there starting running backs to injury (Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams), not that it really matters but I don’t even know who the lead back is this weekend. We all know if you can’t get it done on the ground first then it only makes it that much harder to get it done through the air. 

The Bills are going to put up points this Sunday and I can’t see the Cardinals keeping up with them, Kevin Kolb will be looking the Larry Fitzgerald often but they will have a hard time connecting with no run game. The most points they put up all season was 27 against the Eagles and that was more due to defensive performance. This week won’t be the same and expect the Bills defense to have one of those games, a couple interceptions and a fumble recovery contributed to the lack of skill and offensive options this Cardinals team has. 

Combine that with the fact Arizona is 1-9 as non division favourites in a game by less than 7 points.

FINAL SCORE – BILLS 32 – CARDINALS 23

GAME 4 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3.5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS

The last game I choose to go with this weekend might be the best game all sunday. These two teams combine for 33 sacs on the season and are ranked 1st and 6th in these categories. Bundle that with Aaron Rodgers who is the second most sacked QB in the league on the year (21), with the Texans defensive end J.J Watt whom has 7.5 sacs on the year. We might be seeing Rodgers on his back a lot and/or running for his life if he can’t get the protection. This will be an interesting matchup to follow but when this game is all said and done I like the Packers to cover the 3.5 points and hand the Texans their first loss on the season. 

The main reason I like this game and the spread is because the Packers are playing terrible this season; I feel they are going to turn that around real soon. Aaron Rodgers has only 10 total TD’s and 1300 yards this year; last year at this point he had 16 TDs and 1700 yards. His production is going to pick up and I like for him to pick apart Houston’s secondary much like Mark Sanchez did in the second half last week. I like this for one reason, the Texans have no Brian Cushing on the inside. He is extremely important on this defense and filling his position with similar talent is going to be a difficult task. Aaron Rodgers is well aware of this and look for him to expose it this weekend. 

Arian Foster is the best running back in the league this year scoring at least 1 touchdown every game and already has 500 yards on the season. This is going to be the Texans strategy much like every other game they play; the only difference is Green Bay has only allowed 2 rushing TD’s on the year and I like them to finally put a stop to this man and the train which is this Texan’s offense. We saw them slowed last weekend against the Jets for the first time all year and made us believe they are not indestructible. This weekend they are going to get beat and it will be magical. 

FINAL SCORE – GREEN BAY 24 – TEXANS 20