Week 6 NFL Picks 2011

   EAGLES (-1.5)     VS        REDSKINS 

Alright so I know what some of  you may be thinking, how can I be picking the eagles in this game. They are leading the NFL with a league high 9 interceptions through 5 games, thats almost 2 per game; although only 7 of those picks are from the hands of Michael Vick’s, he had 7 picks all of last year! showing he has been less than spectacular after signing his monster contract in the offseason. The way I look at it is the eagles need to turn things around, and do it fast before they fall any further behind in the NFC East. This is a divisional matchup and a do-or-die for the Eagles, if they lose it virtually means they won’t make the playoffs with the Redskins going to 4-1 to lead the division and the Eagles falling to 1-5. If they win this game I believe the Eagles still have a legitimate chance of still being playoff bound. I predict a win for the Eagles sideline this week in Washington if they can accomplish a few key things, establish a strong running game early, minimize the turnovers, and their defense performs to their salaries. Washington ranks 8th in pass and 6th in run defense, they are coming off their bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare for the Eagles high flying offense. However I believe it isn’t what the Redskins can do to stop the Eagles but what the Eagles do to stop themselves. They will put up points no matter what and the difference in this game will come down to Philadelphia’s issues with stopping the run. They rank 30th in the league in this category while the Redskins have strong depth at this position with Hightower and Torain. If they can limit these guys from bursting long runs it should be a simple task for them to stop Santana Moss and pressure Rex Grossman. I am looking for the Eagles and Vick to secure the ball and have their first game this season with no interceptions, while LeSean McCoy is good to have over 100 yards rushing. Without a win here the Eagles are hopeless playing behind the Giants and Cowboys trying to earn a playoff spot. Look for them to pull out a win in high flying fashion this week and begin to look more like the eagles of last year.

Final Score – Eagles 31- Redskins 20  

Game 2 

         BILLS           VS      NY GIANTS (-3)

My second pick of the week is for the Bills to cover -3 in New York on sunday. This spread actually surprised me when I first saw it considering the way the Giants have been playing up to date. They haven’t faced a top 10 team yet, with wins against possibly some of the worst teams in the league this year in St. Louis and Arizona and a loss to Seattle last week who in my eyes is the worst team in the league. The bills however have already proven themselves this year several times, I don’t think anyone can forget the week 3 win over New England and they are currently leading the AFC East. Ahead of the Patriots and Jets…..yes thats right, both the Patriots and Jets. Buffalo has arguably the best running back in football right now in Fred Jackson, he has been a complete beast through 5 weeks averaging 96 yards per game on the ground, 46 in the air and 1 TD a game. With a Giants 21st ranked run defense that should calculate out to be another huge day for Jackson’s ground and pound style. They just aren’t the same defense they have proven to be previous years. If the Giants plan to win this game they will have exploit the Bills 30th ranked defense, but if history teaches me right and we look back to last week. Eli single handedly lost the game throwing a pick 6 in the dying seconds of the game, and 3 INT on the day. The Bills defense leads the league with a best 12 Interceptions against apposing quarterbacks and this sunday shouldn’t be any different. Look for the Giants to turn the ball over at critical moments and the bills to capitalize just as they have all along this year. I am looking for the Bills defense to have at least 1 INT on the day and run! run! run! the ball all day long.

Final Score – Bills 34 – Giants 28
GAME 3

 SAINTS (-4.5)       VS         BUCCANEERS

Alright so in this game I feel pretty confident that the Saints will extend their win streak to 5. They have only lost one game this year and that was week 1, thursday night against the undefeated Superbowl champions Packers. The Saints have been underrated this year for their talent, Brees hasn’t changed and is still one of the elite quarterback in the leagues and Tampa Bay defense just isn’t what it used to be. They are the 23rd ranked defense in the league for total yardage allowed and frankly I have been unimpressed with their past 2 performances. They barely squeaked out a W against the last place 0-5 colts in week 5, it took a LeGarrette Blount’s 35 yard touchdown run to clinch the game and last week was a complete disaster. Not only did they get blown out 48-3 by a San Francisco offense that is less than spectacular, they lost one of their best weapons on offense Blount to injury. He is not expected to play this week and that is going to hurt the Bucs ability to move the ball real bad. Josh Freeman has looked a lot more like a rookie than rookie Cam Newton has this year. He hasn’t thrown for more than 1 TD in a game this season and hasn’t eclipsed the 300 yards passing mark once. He’s thrown for only 3 touchdowns on the season yet has accumulated 6 interceptions. He’s thrown 1 touchdown since week 3 but much of this cannot be blamed on him. His top receiver Mike Williams has only 1 touchdown catch on the year and has only caught 49% of the balls thrown his way this year. Which is far off from his 2010 season performance of 11 TDs. Tampa Bay has some serious problems in their offense and they need to get it together if they have a chance at competing with this SuperBowl contender. Look for Drew Brees to throw for over 300 yards and 3TD’s on the day. I believe this game is gonna be a blowout, with no LeGarrette Blount leaving mediocre Earnest Graham to handle the carries, and Freeman and Williams appearing on different pages this year, I find it hard to see Tampa keeping this game close even at home.

Final Score – Saints 38 – Bucs 17
Game 4 

DOLPHINS         VS       NY JETS (-7) 

With my last pick of the week I’m going with another monday night game. This game should be a goody and I can already see the Jets taking it down. Frankly I don’t think this spread is large enough, now I know the Jets aren’t the team they were the last couple years but they are still being underestimated this week in this spread.  The Jets are still 5th best in the league against the pass this year and Miami’s best receiver Brandon Marshall in a recent interview claimed that he has been keeping his emotions under control so much it is effecting his play. He said he’s gonna be hyped for this game and could even get into a fight and ejected in the first half! Well I can already see sitting on Revis Island all day long won’t help this situation and maybe we will see a little bit of frustration come out of Marshall. Secondly the Miami quarterback situation sure won’t help this cause. Henne was lost week 5 with season ending shoulder surgery leaving Matt Moore to take over the starting position. The Jets have lost 3 games in a row, however each game was on the road and the teams are some of the best in the league right now being the Raiders, Ravens and Patriots. I like them to bounce back this week staying undefeated at home and really pumping the Dolphins this week. Miami ranks 31st in the league for pass defense, Mark Sanchez will have a huge game on this monday nighter and to spread the ball around nicely with everyone on the Jets offense getting into the action. I also like the Jets defense in this game to come up with at least 1 interception improving to a total of 8 on the year. This game is going to be a blowout and I expect to see squealing dolphins all over the field after this game.

Final Score – Dolphins 10 – Jets 31