Week four is a wrap and we can officially shut the door on September. We’ve eclipsed the quarter mark of the regular season as we now step into October and embrace everything that Fall has to offer. In case you missed out this past Sunday, (doing something that wasn’t nearly as important as watching football) here’s a little roundup of the important action.
- And then there was only two. Two undefeated teams that is. Philadelphia was the only undefeated team to suit up this past weekend and lost against the 49ers. While the Bengals and Cardinals streak continues because they both had bye weeks. Quite a difference from last season where following four weeks of football the Seahawks, Chiefs, Broncos, Saints and Patriots were all still undefeated. Its not looking good for any of you crazy bettors that have money on a team finishing the season unblemished at 16-0.
- The Colts won their second consecutive game and scored 40 points in back-to-back weeks. Andrew Luck looks unstoppable right now and is on pace for 5,200 passing yards and 52 touchdowns. Both outrageous numbers that would have set all time records until Peyton Manning decided to smash those last year. Either way, Luck is the real deal and the early MVP candidate in my eyes.
- Green Bay bounced back in a huge way and reminded everyone what they are capable of. They put up 38 points in Chicago while their defense exposed Cutler with two second half interceptions holding them to zero points. Big game this week for the Bears as they travel to Carolina.
- Steve Smith wasn’t lying when he said there would be “blood and guts” when Carolina came to town this season. He torched their secondary for 139 yards on 7 catches and 2 touchdowns on Sunday and made every Panther fan question how they let this guy go. He is on pace for 1700 yards and 12 touchdowns this year, both astronomical numbers for a guy that is in his 14th season and 35 years of age.
- Tampa Bay stole a win in Pittsburgh following some terrible defensive play calling. Pittsburgh stopped the Buccaneers on 4th down with 1:49 left in the 4th quarter and only needed a first down to ice the game. But of course they ran the ball twice and took a penalty to give Tampa a second chance with less than a minute left. The punt left the Buccaneers with great field position at Pittsburgh’s 46 yard line but with 40 seconds left and zero timeouts it still looked like long shot. Pittsburgh should have been playing prevent defense to limit deep plays downfield but instead they played man-to-man and on 2nd and 10 Tampa picked up 41 yards across the middle. The game was all but over at this point; great comeback by Tampa but overshadowed by terrible defensive play calling and coaching in my eyes.
- The biggest surprise of the day had to be the Cowboys knocking off New Orleans in Texas. Nobody expected Dallas to be good this year and don’t look now, they are off to their best start since 2008 under Wade Phillips. Their offensive line looks like it is the most dominant in the league giving Tony Romo all day to find his wide receivers and Demarco Murry to run a muck on opposing teams. This is difficult to say, but if the Cowboys continue to play average defense while putting up 30 points a game; the have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs this year.
- Could Tom Brady’s days as an elite quarterback be numbered? He looked like absolute garbage in Kansas City on Monday night and couldn’t spark the offense all evening. Making uncharacteristic throws and interceptions leading to the Patriots putting in backup Garoppolo. Even he looked better than Brady, in his first possession he drove the length of the field in 3 minutes and gave the Patriots their second touchdown on the day. But the real take-away from this game was Jamal Charles is back. Many people wondered if he was healthy enough to be playing with a high ankle sprain. Well he proved everyone that he was posting 110 total yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns.
BUFFALO BILLS VS DETROIT LIONS (-7)
- 1-7 against the spread as a road dog since 2013
- 3-9 against the spread on the road in their last 12 games
- 3-6 against the spread in weeks 5 through 9 the last three seasons
- 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games in October
- 7-0-1 off straight up road dog win
- 2-0 against the spread versus Buffalo since 1992 when playing in Detroit
For New York to keep this game close they will need to hold the Chargers under 20 points. I say this because San Diego has a 12-5 record in games at home when they score 20 or more points since 2011. Unfortunately for Jets fans, your defense is giving up an average of 28 points per game away from home since the start of the 2013 season. Expect another high scoring game for Philip Rivers and this Chargers offense. While their defense should have no troubles holding a terrible Jets offense in check. Look for San Diego to win big at home in back-to-back weekends this Sunday.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 0-8 off a straight up favourite loss
- 2-4 against the spread as a road dog between 3.5-7 points the last 3 seasons
- 1-3 against the spread this season
- 4-0 against the spread this season
- 8-0 at home versus non-divisonal opponents off back-to-back straight up losses
- 10-2 before playing the Raiders
- 3-0 against the spread as a home favourite between 3.5-7 points the last 3 seasons
AFC NORTH VS AFC EAST
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
ODDS: BET365
The New England Patriots (2-2) return home after their embarrassing loss on Monday night to host the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at Gillette Stadium this weekend. Cincinnati is fresh off their bye week and look to remain undefeated this season. While the Patriots aim to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2011. Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati as 1-point road favourites with a total set of 46.5 points.
Go ahead and blink, you aren’t seeing things. The New England Patriots are underdogs at home this weekend. I just have to ask myself, does this mark the end of an era for this Patriots team? They have been unstoppable for the better part of a decade but it looks like this could be their demise. Tom Brady looked absolutely awful on Monday night in Kansas City, struggling with basic reads he could seemingly do in his sleep in the past. Right now he has the Patriots converting only 36% of their 3rd downs and averaging only 20 points per game. While many of you might argue its because he doesn’t have the weapons, I say what about last year? Last year he had their offense 3rd in scoring averaging 27.8 points per game and majority of their season was played without Gronkowski. This year he has had Gronk for every single game and their offense still looks terrible. Maybe its time we face reality and admit that Brady sucks and can no longer throw the deep ball. He is averaging a mere 5.7 yards per attempt this year. That ranks him lowest amongst all starting quarterbacks except Derek Carr. Yes, the same Derek Carr that plays for the Oakland Raiders.
To put it into perspective just how big the tumble for this Patriots offense looks to be; they haven’t ranked outside the top ten in scoring in the last ten years. Since 2004 they have scored a combined average of 29 points per game. So when you look at this spread this weekend and realise it marks the first game since 2005 that New England hasn’t been listed as a favourite at home, it really shouldn’t surprise you. Cincinnati is one of the best teams in football and their defense is arguably the best out there. They are 1st in the league giving up only 11 points per game through three weeks, and finished last season 5th allowing only 19 per contest. It would be a shock to see this Patriots team score more than 20 this weekend; and you can bet your piggy bank that unless they eclipse that mark there isn’t a chance they win this game. I’m gonna be riding the Bengals with confidence this weekend, you should be too.
TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 3-0 against the spread this season
- 7-3 against the spread versus New England since 1992
- 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games in week 3
- 20-8-1 against the spread in their last 29 games overall
- 0-5 as underdogs off a monday night game
- 1-4 after allowing more than 28 points in the previous game
- 1-5 versus opponents with rest
- 11-26 against the spread since 1992 where the total is set between 45.5 and 49 points
NFC WEST VS NFC EAST
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
ODDS: BET365
The Washington Redskins (1-3) play their second straight game in prime-time game when they welcome the Seattle Seahawks (2-1) into FedEx Field this Monday Night. The Redskins are fresh off an embarrassing loss against the New York Giants and aim to bounce back to stay within contention of the NFC East. As for Seattle, they are fresh off their bye week and have had extensive time to prepare for this matchup. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Seahawks as 7-point favourites with a total set of 45.5 points.
The Redskins performance against the Giants last Thursday was downright humiliating. They couldn’t get a single thing going and I’m expecting this Monday to be more of the same. The Seahawks are the first elite defensive team they have faced all year. In September Washington played Houston, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and New York. Not a single one of these teams has a defense that ranks in the top half of the league for yards allowed per game; while they collectively are giving up an average of 26 points per game. As for Seattle, their defense sits 6th in the league limiting opponents to an average of 321 total yards and 22 points per contest. Both of which are extremely impressive considering they have faced Green Bay, San Diego, and Denver this season. Three playoff teams from last year that all sit in the top five in total yards offensively per game this season. This is going to be the first real challenge for Washington this season, and frankly another tough outing offensively looks inevitable.
Turnovers and penalties have plagued the Redskins offense this year. They are -5 in turnovers which ties them for worst in the league. While they have racked up 39 total penalties (3rd in the league) for 388 total yards (worst in the league). If they can’t keep these numbers under control Seattle’s defense should put this game to bed early. They lead the league in turnovers last season and have arguably the most talented safety in all of football in Kam Chancellor. He picked off Peyton Manning in their last outing and undoubtedly is licking his chops at the opportunity to face an inexperienced Kirk Cousins. Expect costly turnovers and a standout Seattle secondary to be the headlines for this game. Turning yet another prime-time game this season into an absurd blowout.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 7-1 when playing on Monday
- 5-1 versus conference opponents off back-to-back straight up losses
- 11-3 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points the last three seasons
- 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 Monday night games
- 3-0 against the spread versus AFC East opponents the last three seasons
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 Monday night games
- 1-6 against the spread off a loss against a divisional rival the last three seasons
- 0-4 at home versus NFC West opponents
- 2-10 as underdogs in weeks 5-8 off back-to-back straight up against the spread losses versus opponents above .500