September is officially over and a quarter of the football season is already over. Entering October we still have five undefeated teams in the league with Denver, Kansas City, Seattle, New Orleans and New England. Lets take a look at some important take aways from this past weekend;
- The 49ers proved that they can be who we thought they would be all season. They easily handled St. Louis at home but the real test comes this sunday when they welcome the Texans into Candlestick park
- Joe Flacco looks like absolute dumps through four weeks. He is averaging 0.7 touchdown passes for every interception he throws. Is it to early for Baltimore fans to be regretting that they signed him too a 6 year 120 million dollar deal?
- I’m gonna go ahead and say it, the Giants are giving Jacksonville a run for the worst team in the league. They have scored only seven points in their last two weeks while giving up almost seventy. How they handle Philadelphia at home this week should give us a pretty good indication of how they will look the rest of this season.
- The Jaguars failed to score more than ten points for the third time this past weekend. Justin Blackmon couldn’t return at a better time too help out what looks like the least talented offense in all of football.
- The Seahawks cheated defeated in Houston with Richard Sherman’s pick-6 inside the two minute warning to put the game into overtime. Texan’s fans weren’t happy with Matt Shaub after the game, if burning his jersey in the parking lot is any indication.
- The Browns won their second consecutive game after trading away their franchise player too Indianapolis. Brandon Hoyer looks fantastic under center, after two games he has a bettter completion percentage than Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick. If Cleveland can win this thursday against Buffalo at home they would head into their bye week 3-2, be leading the AFC North and look like geniuses going 3-0 after the Richardson trade.
- Tennessee has started 3-1 and made the Jets look like a bunch of girls this past weekend. It hard to imagine this team should actually be 4-0 after losing in overtime week two against Houston. Don’t count them out in the AFC South this season, even with the Jack Locker hip injury
- The Broncos are unstoppable and a team everyone should be riding to victory right now. They are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread this season and have outscored their opponents by an average of 22 points. Nothing leads me to believe that they are going to slow down anytime soon
- The Saints are officially back in Superbowl conversations. I’m already look forward to week six where we could see them enter New England and two possible 5-0 teams could face off.
Entering week five my predictions this season have gone a cruel 7-8-1. I’ve got a great feeling about my picks this weekend. Here are my favourite matchups for this upcoming weekend.
AFC SOUTH VS NFC WEST
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+11.5) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
ODDS: BET365
The St. Louis Rams are looking to keep pace in the tough NFC West division when they welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) to town this sunday. While many have already labelled Jacksonville as the worst team in football, the Rams aren’t too far behind. Oddsmakers have released St. Louis as 11.5-point favourite with a total set of 41.5 points for this 1PM EST kickoff.
From an outsiders perspective this might be the worst game this weekend, yet somehow it is one in which I feel most confident about in my prediction. Jacksonville has started their season 0-4 for the first time in ten years. Nobody will deny the fact they have looked like a complete disaster this year, but I have a sneaking suspicion that is coming to an end. Justin Blackmon has finally served his four game suspension and will be back in the Jaguars lineup this sunday. I expect him to be the difference maker and give this offense that much needed injection. In the last 7 weeks last season Blackmon connected with Blane Gabbert for 4 touchdowns and an average of 87 yards per game; I expect him to pick up right where he left off. At least one touchdown and 100 yards doesn’t seem that unlikely for him given the fact St. Louis is allowing over 30 points against per game this season, ranking them 28th in the league.
Jacksonville walks into this matchup with a 5-1-1 record in the last three years when playing as underdogs of ten points or greater. As for St. Louis, they enter this game with the worst run game in the league, they are dead last averaging only 47.3 yards on the ground per game. Combine that with the fact the Jaguars boast the 11th best passing defense in the league, it wouldn’t suprise me if St. Louis struggles to move the ball. As much as the betting public will be riding the Jaguars deficiency once again, don’t be surprised when this game turns out much closer than anticipated.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in October
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10 points or greater
- 5-0 against the spread in weeks 5-8 as double digit underdogs
- 5-1 against the spread after allowing 35 points or more in their previous game
ST. LOUS
- 2-9 in the game following the 49ers
- 7-21-1 against the spread in their last 29 games as a home favourite
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up loss by 14 points or more
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home favourite of 10.5 points or greater
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 17 – RAMS 20
AFC NORTH VS AFC EAST
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3)
ODDS: BET365
The Miami Dolphins (3-1) are heading home licking their wounds from how badly New Orleans trumped them on monday night, but you won’t notice that on sunday when Baltimore comes to town. The Ravens have stumbled out the game going 2-2 through four weeks, at times they have shown flashes of brilliance while others just shear disgust. Oddsmakers have enlisted the Dolphins at 3-point favourites at home for this matchup with a total set of 43.5 points.
This seasons marks the best start the Miami Dolphins have had through four games since 2003. They look like a new team with off-season acquisitions while Ryan Tannenhill has shown he has the capability to lead them to victory. Tannenhill ranks in the top half of quarterbacks in most statistical categories and should have a bounce back performance following his three interceptions against the Saints on Monday. But the player I really expect to light the flame in this Dolphins offense on sunday is 5 foot 10 Lamar Miller. He looked great early on in their game last week posting 55 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries in the first half. But in the 2nd half Miami had to abandon the run in hopes of making a comeback, the result was Miller only saw 3 touches. I expect him to have a breakout performance at home this weekend posting somewhere around 100 yards and a touchdown. Seeing as the Raven’s run defense is being gouged for an average 134 yards a game when playing on the road this season, that shouldn’t be difficult to achieve.
Look for Miami’s defense to exploit the Raven’s early season offensive struggles. Baltimore currently ranked 28th in the league rushing for an average of 64 yards a game. They haven’t look like themselves as of late and if history repeats itself it won’t get any better. The Ravens are 3-7 in their last 10 games playing in Miami.
TRENDS
MIAMI
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games in week 5
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a loss by 14 points or more
BALTIMORE
- 3-10 in their last 13 games against Miami
FINAL SCORE – DOLPHINS 31 – RAVENS 17
NFC NORTH VS AFC SOUTH
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-1) VS CHICAGO BEARS
ODDS: BET365
One of the best matchup this weekend will kick off at 1PM EST when the Chicago Bears (3-1) take on the New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Soldier Field. Chicago is looking to rebound after losing against Detroit last weekend while the Saints are trying to stay unbeaten to start october. Oddsmakers have released the Saints as 1-point favourites with an over/under set at 48.5.
Its amazing how big of a difference one year can make. Last season through four weeks New Orleans was 0-4, and at the bottom of the league. This year they are undefeated through september and look to be firing on all cylinders. The major difference? This year they are playing defense. Rob Ryan has the Saints 5th overall in the league giving up only 13.8 points per game this year. Last year at this same time they were allowing almost triple that total at 32.5 points per game. While I expect Chicago to give them a challenge being one of the highest scoring teams in the league early on, injuries will play a big part in deciding the outcome. Brandon Marshall did not participate in practise on wednesday and is listed as having a foot injury. This should be concerning for any of you who hope to go all in on the Bears this weekend, almost 30% of Jay Cutlers passes are towards yours truly. Lets not forget foot injuries can be nagging, especially for receivers since they rely so heavily on making hard cuts.
Since losing defensive tackle Henry Melton to a torn ACL the Bears have struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and alternatively, prevent the run. Last week they allowed Reggie Bush to run wild for 139 yards on only 18 carries. This week they face a running back with the exact same style; Darren Sproles. Leading me to expect similar numbers this weekend from the Saints backfield. Keeping New Orleans undefeated on the season and to start October.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 road games when a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 11-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 7-2 against the spread following a win by 14 points or more
- 20-9 against the spread as a favourite across the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO
- 0-8-1 against the spread in their last 9 game after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games versus the NFC
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 34 – BEARS 27
AFC WEST VS NFC EAST
DENVER BRONCOS (-7) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
ODDS: BET365
The Dallas Cowboys are sitting at 2-2 after four weeks for the third straight season. This weekend they are aiming to stay undefeated at home, but if Peyton Manning has anything to say that is going to be a daunting task. The Broncos are undefeated this season and have been steam rolling every team in their path. Oddsmakers expect a similar result again this weekend making Denver 7-point favourites in Cowboys stadium, with an total set of 56.5 points.
The last time Peyton Manning played in Dallas was way back in 2006 as a member of the Indianapolis Colts. At the time he lead the Colts to a seven point victory, and I have no reason to believe that he won’t do the same this weekend. Through september the Broncos are the highest scoring offense in the league by a margin. They have scored 179 points and are averaging almost 500 total yards in total offense each game. To put it into perspective just how explosive they are, the next highest scoring team has scored only 127 total points; seven touchdowns less than the Broncos. Which should clearly create doubters in the ability of the Cowboys to keep this a close game. Dallas has the 27th ranked passing defense in the league and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to rack up an average of 300 yards per game. Philip Rivers torched them for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns last weekend, which leads me to believe a 400 yard 5 touchdown performance from Manning this sunday isn’t that unlikely.
While it is easy to praise the ability of Denver’s offense, their defense has silently been playing great football. They currently rank as the best rush defense in the league and are giving up an average of 74 yards per game on the ground. Look for this trend to continue, Demarco Murray hasn’t rushed for over 50 yards in his career when he faces a rush defense ranked in the top five in the league. We have to wait to see an outcome, but nothing leads me to believe the Cowboys can keep this a close game. Watch for Denver to win big once again this weekend.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 5-0 versus opponent off a straight up favourite loss
- 10-1 against the spread as a favourite over the last two seasons between 3.5-9.5 points
- 14-5 against the spread in all lined games over the last two seasons
- 11-3 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins over the three seasons
- 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games versus NFC opponents
DALLAS
- 1-7 in their last 8 games versus Denver
- 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games played in October
- 0-5 against the spread in their last five games in week five
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 38 – DALLAS 27