It is hard to think that a quarter of the NFL season is already over. 4 Weeks have been played, winners have been decided and we are finally getting a better picture of who the real contenders are this year. Too this point in the season there is several surprises that few professionals and even analysts could have predicted coming in. Lets take a look;
- The Vikings were labelled pre-season as one of the weakest teams entering 2012. They were predicted to finish the year 3-13 by most and after 4 weeks they are 3-1 and atop the NFC north, which some would call the hardest division in football.
- The NFC west division has the best overall record in football when compared to every other divison. They are a combined 11-5 before thursday nights game between the Cardinals and Rams, placing the division above a .687 winning percentage. The next best division in football is the NFC north and east. Both showing records of 9-7 combined or a .562 winning percentage. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming
- The Patriots lost back-to-back games for the first time under Belichick since 2009 and only the second time in 6 years! I read articles and heard talks prior to the season that the Pats could go undefeated this year and walk themselves to another Superbowl win simply on the fact they had the easiest schedule going into the season. But after 4 weeks if we take a step back and look at the teams that are supposed to be easy like playing at Seattle, against St. Louis, their schedule isn’t so easy anymore
- The AFC west division with San Diego, Denver, Oakland and Kansas City looks like the most exciting division in football. For the first time under Philip Rivers the Chargers are playing some of their best football to start the season as opposed to coming out flat as usual and having to play perfect in november to even have a shot at the playoffs. Peyton Manning is his old self in Denver, this team is really good and could very well be the best in this divison. The only two loses they have this year came at the hands of the only two teams lefts undefeated in the entire league…the Falcons and Texans. What can I say about Oakland and Kansas City? Well Oakland looks like crap to start the year, they need to use McFadden more like Chicago uses Forte, about 45% of their plays! Get this man the ball and beautiful things will happen. Much like the Chiefs are once again going with Jamal Charles. He has been explosive ever since going off in Week 3 against the Saints, look for him to continue this trend
- Lastly I just want to touch on the NFC South. This was supposed to be the most competitive division heading into the season and so far it hasn’t been close. The Falcons are controlling the division at 4-0 and the New Orleans Saints whom were supposed to challenge for the division title look to be missing Sean Payton more than what people believed they would start 0-4 for the first time since 2007.
After 4 Weeks I am still at .500 after going 2-2 again last week bringing my record to 8-8 on the season and the same record that took Tim Tebow and the Bronco’s to the playoffs last year. I think I can do better, maybe some Tebowing will help to improve my record. Heck it worked for Tim. Here are my week 5 picks
GAME 1
PHILADELPHIA EAGELS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5)
With my first pick of the week I am rolling the dice on the Eagles to come into Pittsburgh and cover -3.5 as the road dogs. There is a couple reasons I like this game; firstly the Eagles did a fantastic job holding onto the ball last week. They had no turnovers after starting the season with the most turnovers out of any NFL team. Their defense came through with the task of stopping the Giants in important situations, such as the Eli Manning redzone interception. If the Giants walked away from that drive with even a field goal they would have won this game. Further if you look at the Steelers following a week of rest, coming off a loss and being the home favorite in a football game they have a record of 1-3 against the spread. If history repeats itself; which often enough it does; I see the Eagles winning this game and having a big coming out party for their offense. Vick is averaging only one touchdown a game and so far their biggest offensive weapon LeSean McCoy only has 1 touchdown himself. To this point last year he already had 4 TD’s! I really like McCoy to explode this week against this Steelers questionable 14th ranked rushing defense.
The Steelers will have their hands full on Sunday, they will need a miracle at home to walk away victors. Big Ben will have to avoid the sacks, interceptions and find both Wallace and Brown open in this Eagles tight 6th ranked passing defense. This Steelers team is getting old, real old. Injuries to key defensive players means they just don’t have the scare and intimidation they once did. The Steelers record is going to suffer to 1-3 for the first time since under Bill Cowher in 2006. While the Eagles improve to 4-1 and keep the dream alive of once again making the playoffs and playing for a chance at the coveted Lombardi Trophy.
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 27 – STEELERS 24
GAME 2
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7) VS KANSAS CITY CHEIFS
The second game I like this week is for the Chiefs to cover the 7 points given at home against the Ravens. We all know the Ravens are a much different team on the road, they finished 12-4 last season and just take a guess where all 4 of those losses came? On the road against 4 opponents that never even made the playoffs! I like this game to be much like last week where the Ravens failed to cover and almost allowed Brandon Weeden a chance to have a last minute drive to try and tie the game and put it into overtime. This week I think the Ravens are going to look rough. We all know the Chiefs are one of the better teams in the NFL at home, upsetting the perfect Green Bay Packers last year in week 14 at home. This game is going to be much of the same.
The key to a Chiefs win is going to be slowing the game down, containing their wideouts and stopping Ray Rice. If they can accomplish this while getting Jamal Charles going on the ground they could surprise this week at home. Charles has been the best running back in the league the last 2 weeks, over 325 yards on the ground and 3 TDs. It looks as though he is fully recovered from his season ending knee injury last season and is going to have heads spinning in the Ravens secondary. Look for him to have another 100 yard rushing game and contribute at least one touchdown on the day.
To pad the stats in the Chiefs favor a little bit more they are 4-1 in their last five outings against AFC North opponents and are 12-2 after allowing over 35 points at home (which they did last week against San Diego 20-37) Play on the Chiefs to cover this weekend at home against the Ravens, you won’t be disappointed!
FINAL SCORE – BALTIMORE 19 – CHIEFS 21
GAME 3
TENNESSEE TITANS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6)
The first favourite I am going with this week might come back to bite me in the ass, not only because they are my favourite team and I may have a bias opinion towards them but also the fact they are the Minnesota Vikings. I choose this game purely on the fact that the Vikings are playing unbelievable to start the season, are above .500 for the first time in 3 years and the Titans are the allowing a league worst 37 points per game! I can see the lights exploding and fire works going on between these two teams before it even happens. The only bad thing for the Titans is that the Vikings defense should be mentioned along side the best in the league right now, they are 8th among total yards allowed per game and have held two of the top teams in the league to under two touchdowns.
This game is going to showcase a run happy Vikings offense once they get out to an early lead. They are going to have a hard time mustering a comeback in this one with how terrible Chris Johnson has been playing this year, while also missing Jake Locker and Kenny Britt this weekend to injuries. There offense is going to be in for a hard task all day and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings once again hold this opponent to under two touchdowns on the day. Look for Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin to both play huge roles in the offense also. Percy was voted special teams player of the month in september and I like him to pick up where he left off. He will be good for at least 100 yards and a TD against this titans secondary. The Titans are in for a doozey and I just can’t imagine them stepping up their game to play with one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. Vikings win and boy do they win BIG
FINAL SCORE – Tennessee 13 – Vikings 38
GAME 4
HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5) VS NEW YORK JETS
The last game I choose was the monday night game between the Texans and Jets. I am once again really surprised by how this spread isn’t larger than two scores in favour of Houston. They have looked unstoppable this year, having the best defense in the league, are undefeated at 4-0 and are also 4-0 against the spread. They have outscored opponents by a total of 17 points each game and haven’t even had a game yet that they have been close to losing. I can’t imagine for a second this week is going to be any different; especially after how terrible the Jets looked last week against the 49ners. Failing to put even one point on the board at home! Combine that with the fact they lost their best WR in Santonio Holmes to a season ending foot injury; and the previous week losing their best CB in Darrelle Revis. This Jets team I believe before losing Holmes to injury already had the worst offense in the league. After this that can be confirmed, they are the worst team at putting points up on the board. I am surprised that they even have a 2-2 record, they should be 1-3 but squeaked out a win in Miami week 2 after the Dolphins kicker missed a overtime winning field goal.
What do you get when you put the best defense in yards allowed per game in the entire NFL against the 28th ranked offense in yards per game? You get the Houston Texans defense VS the New York Jets offense. The Texans defense is probably already giving Mark Sanchez nightmares about interceptions, sacs and fumbles. J.J Watt; the Texans starting DE has 7.5 sacs on the year and already we are hearing whispers of possible defensive player of the year. Not to forget that they are tied for 9th in the league in interceptions and 8th for forced fumbles. I think before this game is over and all is said and done we are going to be hearing thousands of upset New York Jets fans screaming the last thing in the world Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez want to hear. TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW! It was week 5 last year that Tebow took over the Denver Broncos offense and lead them to the playoffs, could he do the same miracle in New York? I don’t think so but hey, I bet we get to see him under centre by the time this game is over. I wouldn’t even be shocked one bit to see the Jets lose two games in a row without scoring a single point! We can’t forget how terrible they were in the pre-season, it took 4 games for them to score their first touchdown. Houston wins a blow out.
FINAL SCORE – HOUSTON 27 – JETS 3