Alright people we are heading into week 5 of the NFL regular season and to date things have panned out different than what some analysts had predicted. How many people could have said the Bills would be atop of the AFC East at 3-1, the Steelers at the bottom of the AFC north at 2-2 or the “Dream Team” (Philadelphia Eagles) to start 1-3. After huge offseason acquisitions like Rogers-Cromartie and Asomugha to improve the Eagles questionable secondary to accompany one of the most potent offences in the league last year nobody could have said this is where the eagles would be going into week 5.
Through my experiences I have learned that the NFL at times can be predictable, but it also brings several surprises that even the people who get paid to watch and analyze cannot predict. Before the season began if anyone told me that Cam Newton would be averaging 345 passing yards, 1 rush TD and 1 pass TD through 4 games, and Carolina would be 3rd in the league in offense trailing only New Orleans and New England I would say that’s whack. Considering they were dead last in 2010 I would call you crazy! I think if Newton puts up another week of posting numbers like this, it should turn what sceptics are left into believers. After all the kid has already proven himself against the Bears and Packers which are supposed to be two of the top defenses in the league.
Arizona @ Minnesota (-1.5)
Seattle @ NY Giants (-9.5)
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Oakland @ Houston (-6.5)
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (-2.5)
NY Jets @ New England (-9.5)
San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver
Green Bay (-6.5) @ Atlanta
Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)
Pick One
New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina
Alright in the first game of week 5 and my first lock this week is Carolina to cover the 7 points given to them. This game is going to be an all out aerial blitz and I expect both Newton and Brees to throw for over 300 yards. I think Carolina will cover just as they did last week against the Bears with the exception this week they are at home. No more underestimating Cam Newton, the Saints are in the middle of the pack for pass defense allowing an average of 254 yards per game. As long as it isn’t torrential downpour like in week 2 in Carolina, I see Newtown tearing apart the Saints secondary with Smith good for his 4th game of the season with over 150 yards receiving. Carolina ranks 6th right now in pass defense which usually doesn’t mean much to Drew Brees however the key for Carolina to cover will be for them to stop the run. The Panthers rank 31st in the league at stopping the run and if they cannot control Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram its going to mean easy red-zone trips for the Saints, and for the Panthers playing from behind all day. With that being said I believe the crowd is going to play a large part in this game with fan’s static over Newton and the rejuvenation he brings to this young team. Don’t be surprised to even see the Panthers winning a points throughout this game much like week 2 against the Pack.Final Score – Saints 34 Panthers 31
Pick Two
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
After all the controversy this year behind Carson Palmer demanding a trade and opting to retire, Ocohocinco going to the Pats and then choosing not to resign TO it looked as though the Bengals were lined up to be the laughing stock of the league. However going into week 5 and a record of 2-2 they are second in the AFC North. Apparently rookies Andy Dalton and A.J Green know how to get things done at a professional level. I really really like Cincinnati to cover this this spread and even win this game against the Jags on sunday. I expect this game to be a low scoring affair with the Jags in a terrible QB situation with Blaine Gabbert and the Bengals pass defense ranking 3rd best in the league only allowing 4 TD through the air this season. This game should be a ground and pound affair between MJD and Benson with a whole lotta field goals and not much excitement.
Final Score – Bengals 22 – Jags 19
Pick Three
San Diego (-4) @ Denver
Alright so to me, this spread is a no brainer. Denver has looked like crap this year, they got lit up last week against the Packers and this week should be no different. Philip Rivers hasn’t quite been playing like himself this year and I really like this game to be his breakout. Denver ranks 24th against the pass and 13rd against the run. While the Chargers are 6th in the league at the pass and 18th ranked in the run. I personally believe 18th doesn’t give credit to the Chargers running game, since they often don’t run but use the play action pass to either Matthews or Tolbert once the play has developed. When looking at the Bronco’s I find it hard to see how they aren’t going to get blown away, yeah they are at home but San Diego is the 6th ranked defense for total yards this year and 5th in against the run. Lets face it Willis McGahee is old and just won’t be able to get it done against this tough defensive line, John Fox might just need to look to Knowshon Moreno for this one.
Final Score – Chargers 28 – Denver 17
Pick Four
Chicago @ Detroit (-5.5)
For this game I’m going with the undefeated Lions to cover -5.5 on the first monday night game played in Detroit in nearly a decade. This prime time game should attract many viewers and Detroit will bask in the glory walking away with a win in this one. Chicago has one weapon on their offense named Matt Forte getting over 50% of the touches in this offense. If Detroit’s 12th in the league run defense can contain him this should be a walk in the park. Chicago ranks 29th in the league against the pass and with Stafford having the hot arm and Mega-tron looking unstoppable this year its hard to believe this game isn’t going to end up in Detroit’s favour to keep them undefeated. I expect to see another 2 TD game from Mega-tron rounding him up to 10 TD’s on the season. It looks as though things have turned around for the Lions, they are no longer the laughing stock of the league after finishing 0-16 in 2009. Now they seem to be a Superbowl contender and look for them to continue their undefeated streak to in week 5 to become 5-0
Final Score – Bears 17 – Lions 31