Week 4 NFL Picks 2014

posted in: 2014 NFL Picks | 0

Following three weeks of football only three teams remained undefeated on the season. The Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals all kept their winning streaks in tact while the Broncos, Bills, Texans and Panthers all lost their first games of the year. Incase you missed last week here is a little round up;

  • The Falcons obliterated the Buccaneers on Thursday night. They won 56-14 at home and this game wasn’t close; after the first quarter it was already 21-0. Leading me to ask myself is Tampa Bay bad enough to finish 0-16 this year? We will have to wait and see with them entering Pittsburgh and New Orleans the next two weeks, then hosting Baltimore in week six, starting 0-6 is looking realistic.
  • San Diego went into Buffalo and made them look like the Bills of the past. They controlled the tempo of this game and never surrender the lead all day. The Chargers are looking like a serious contender this year, they host Jacksonville and the Jets in the next two weeks then travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders. Starting 5-1 looks almost like a guarantee. 
  • The Saints took down Minnesota at home to clinch their first victory of the year. Aside from Brees freaking out for getting suplexed like a rag doll, the best part of this matchup was getting to see Teddy Bridgewater in action. After Matt Castle went down with a foot injury the future of this franchise took over and might I tell you, it looks like a glorious future. I can’t wait to see what Norv Turner can do with this guy in the next few weeks. 
  • The Bengals one again looked unstoppable. They ran over Tennessee 33-7, and in my personal opinion look like the best team in football right now. Playing at New England and Indianapolis in the coming weeks should give us a great picture of where they really stand. 
  • Green Bay mustered a dismal 7 points in Detroit. The Lions absolutely man handled the Packers offensive line and allowed Rodgers to get nothing going. Its looks like this is going to be a ongoing concern for the Packers this year, lets just hope they can fix the bleeding before it ruins their entire season. 
  • Oakland waltzed into New England and actually gave them a run for their money. I don’t know what it is about this Patriots team this year but they don’t look good. They don’t have the pop on offense that we are used to seeing with Brady under centre and even their defense isn’t as dominate as many expected. I’m actually starting to believe that the AFC East could be up for grabs this season. 
  • The Cardinals took down division rivals San Francisco in defensive fashion and firmly put their grip on the NFC West lead entering their bye. Colin Kaepernick once again looked fantastic in the first half but couldn’t solve the tough Cardinal’s secondary in the second half. Now is about the time 49ers fans begin to worry about their playoff chances. The Cardinals finished 11-5 last season and barely missed a wildcard spot. Circle the week 16 rematch between these two teams, it could end up deciding which one of these teams makes the post-season. 
  • The Broncos/Seahawks Superbowl rematch turned out to be the game everyone wished they saw last season during February. Peyton drove downfield with less than a minute left to score and push it into overtime. Then Russell Wilson clinched the victory picking up critical first downs running outside the pocket. Above all else this game showed me that Seattle can be beaten at home. 
  • The biggest surprise of the weeked had to be Pittsburgh knocking off Carolina at home. I was extremely confident the Panthers would win this game and Big Ben once again proved me wrong. They took advantage of costly turnovers and managed to score 37 against a very tough Carolina defense. I’m just gonna go ahead and chalk this one up as a fluke, no way the Steelers are a better team than the Panthers this season. Just can’t picture that happening.
My predictions last weekend finished at a standstill of 2-2. Both the Chargers and Ravens covered their spreads while the Texans and Panthers fumbled their undefeated records. My record through three weeks sits at 5-7. Let’s see if i can bump my record above .500 with my predictions in week four.  
NFC NORTH VS AFC EAST 



DETROIT LIONS (-1.5) VS NEW YORK JETS

ODDS: BET365

The New York Jets (1-2) play host to the Detroit Lions (2-1) on a shortened week of rest this Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Detroit is still looking for their first win on the road this season, while the Jets are trying to prevent losing back-to-back home games against NFC North opponents. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Lions as 1.5-point favorites with a total set of 45 points.

There is no denying that the Jets should have won their Monday night showdown against the Bears. Multiple mistakes by the referees cost them the game some would say. (most notably the fumble recovery that would have gone for a touchdown but was blown dead). But you can also argue the first drive pick-6 by Geno Smith did the same. This team can compete and there defense is good, there is no question about it. But I still see an very weak offense that is unproven and seemingly has no real playmakers. For that reason I like the Lions on the road this weekend. Detroit enters this matchup with the #1 ranked defense in all of football in regards to yards allowed per game per game (244.3). They currently sit 3rd against the pass and 2nd against the rush. You don’t have to look much farther than that to conclude Geno Smith is destined for another tough outing against the NFC North.

The key matchup for this game will be Detroit’s offensive line against the Jets all-out blitz packages. It has become evident Rex Ryan isn’t afraid to throw the entire house at opposing quarterbacks. But I don’t see that being effective against this Lions team. Matthew Stafford has one of the better release times in the league at 2.71 seconds, and bringing everyone including the kitchen sink means one on one coverage down field. which could prove disastrous. We all know that Megatron is capable of beating triple coverage, single coverage should be a cake walk. While Detroit has just as good, if not a better receiving core than the Bears, and they dismantled this Jets defense on Monday. Something to note, the Jets are one of the few teams left in the league to record an interception this season.


TRENDS 


DETROIT

  • Jim Caldwell is 6-1 away off a double-digit straight up win
  • 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in week four 
  • 5-0 versus non-divisonal opponents off a straight up favourite loss
NEW YORK
  • 3-5-2 against the spread in their last 10 games
  • 0-8 off a straight up favourite loss
  • 6-15 straight up as an underdog in the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 23 – JETS 13 


AFC SOUTH VS AFC WEST 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS SAN DEIGO CHARGERS (-13) 

ODDS: BET365 

The San Diego Chargers (2-1) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) into Qualcomm Stadium this Sunday for what is expected to be the biggest blowout all weekend. Jacksonville has yet to win a game this season and are aiming to prevent going 0-4 for the second consecutive year. While the Chargers look to stay undefeated at home this season. Oddsmakers have listed San Diego as 13-point favorites with a total set of 44.5 points.

Black Bortles first career start in the NFL is going to be a tough one. San Diego is one of the toughest stadiums in football to play in, and the Chargers defense has been great to start the year. They are limiting opposing teams to an average of 16.3 points per game and under 330 yards per contest. Both good enough to rank them within the top ten defensive teams in the league. Starting Blake Bortles in a matchup like this one looks to me like a hail marry. I’ll give it to the Jaguars, their offense has been terrible averaging only 266 total yards per game this year but when you have an offensive line that couldn’t protect the fastest quarterback alive, putting in a rookie isn’t the answer. To put it into context  just how bad they are; through three weeks the Jags have given up 17 sacks, 6 more than the next worst team in the league.

As for the Chargers offense, they should run-a-muck on this Jaguars defense. Jacksonville is dead last in the league in both pass and run defense. They are giving up an average of 306 yards through the air and 160 on the ground this year. Andrew Luck put a clinic on last week against them, Philip Rivers should have no problem doing the same. He has 6 passing touchdowns this year and sits only behind Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning with an average quarterback rating of 108.3. Everything, and I mean everything points towards the Chargers winning big at home this weekend.

TRENDS 

JACKSONVILLE

  • 1-9 against the spread in their last 3 seasons during September
  • 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in week four
  • Coach Gus Bradley is 0-5 versus opponents off a double-digit against the spread win
  • 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games overall 
SAN DEIGO 
  • 4-0 against the spared in their last 4 games in week four
  • 9-1 against the spread in September in their last 3 seasons
  • 23-3 against the spread versus AFC South opponents since 1992 
  • 4-1 against the spread as home favourites in 2013
  • Favourite is 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 meetings between these teams
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 10 – CHARGERS 34 




NFC SOUTH VS NFC NORTH 




ATLANTA FALCONS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Atlanta Falcons (2-1) travel up north this weekend to take on the Minnesota Vikings (1-2) at TCF Bank Stadium.  Minnesota enters this game still looking for their first victory at home this season. While the Falcons are fresh off their biggest win ever under coach Mike Smith. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Falcons as 3-point favorites with a total set of 46.5 points.

Matt Ryan is making a serious case for MVP this year through three weeks of football. He has Atlanta’s passing attack ranked #1 in the league averaging 333 yards per outing, and is posting an average quarterback rating of 105.1 to boot. For this reason many people are going to be picking the Falcons to fly high this weekend against Minnesota, (Especially following their performance last weekend at home) but I see this as a perfect spot for them to regress. Its easy when a team wins big to immediately jump on the bandwagon and assume they will win the following weekend but Minnesota should not be underrated. Teddy Bridgewater will have his first official start under center for the Vikings and he looked very capable of leading this team to victory last weekend in New Orleans.

Consider this, Atlanta’s defense is exploitable this year. They currently sit 27th overall allowing teams to gain an average of 387 total yards per game, and seemingly have no pass rush. Through three games they have recorded only 3 sacks Which leads me to believe Bridgewater should have lots of time to survey the field and complete his check downs before finding his wide open receivers. While some of you could argue Matt Ryan is very capable of doing the same thing. We can’t forget that this game will be played outdoors and on the road. Both area’s that we have seen Ryan struggle the last two seasons. The Falcons are 1-8 when playing on the road since last year while Ryan has 10 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 76.8 across that same span. Additionally, no team has been worse than Atlanta this year with 8 giveaways. (4 interceptions, 4 fumbles) Take the Vikings with confidence this weekend, you know I will be.

TRENDS 

ATLANTA

  • 0-4 after scoring 35 points or more versus an opponent off double-digit straight up loss
  • 6-9 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last 3 seasons
  • 69-113 straight up in all road games since 1992
MINNESOTA 
  • 9-0 against the spread as underdogs of 6-points or less versus opponents off straight up win
  • 8-2 against the spread versus opponents off double-digit straight up win
  • 7-1 in weeks 1-4 as home dogs versus opponents off straight up win 
  • 5-1 against the spread as home underdogs of 3-points or less the last three seasons
  • 11-5 straight up in all home games the last 3 seasons 
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 23 – VIKINGS 27 

NFC EAST VS NFC WEST 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+5.5) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

ODDS: BET365

The San Francisco 49ers (1-2) welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) into Levi’s Stadium this weekend for the first matchup between these two teams since 2011. This is a must win for the 49ers, it would improve their record to .500 an barely keep their head above water in an extremely tough NFC West division. While the Eagles are off to their best start since 2004 and the Donovan McNabb era. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown 49ers as 5.5-point favorites with an over/under set at 50.5 points.

This year’s 49ers team has not looked like the Jim Harbaugh team everyone has come to know and fear. They have looked sluggish on defense recording only 4 sacks and have recorded the fewest tackles of any team in the entire league at 156. Average defensive play is not something we have come to expect from this team and its looks like that is exactly where they sit through three games. With Philadelphia entering this game one of the most potent offensive teams in the league, it could get nasty for San Francisco’s second ever game in Levi’s Stadium. The Eagles are terrorizing defensive teams through the air for an average of 310 yards per game, while scoring an average 33.7 points game (Ranking 2nd overall in both these categories). San Francisco will have to impose their will and have an incredible defensive performance to win this game by more than 6, something I just don’t see happening with their injuries and off-field issues.

Everyone expected Colin Kaepernick to take the step forward and become an elite quarterback this year, but that has yet to be seen. He hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game and has an average rating of 92.2, setting him behind both the likes of Austin Davis (STL) and Brian Hoyer (CLE) in this category. If he can’t throw for at least three touchdowns this Sunday I can’t see the 49ers putting up the points they need to compete. Its easy to see the 49ers winning at home in a must win situations but by 6-points, that’s a stretch. Chip Kelly is a master at keeping games within reach. Lay the points and ride this Eagles up-tempo offense to some cash this weekend.

TRENDS 

PHILADELPHIA

  • 9-0 as road dogs of more than 3-points with revenge versus conference opponents
  • 24-15 against the spread as a road dog between 3.5-7 points since 1992
  • 3-1 against the spread as a road dog between 3.5-7 points the last 3 years
  • Chip Kelly is 4-0 versus opponents coming off straight up against the spread loss
SAN FRANCISCO 
  • 2-7 against the spread when playing Philadelphia in San Francisco since 1992
  • 29-37 against the spread since 1992 after two or more consecutive losses
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 27 – 49ERS 30