Week 4 NFL Picks 2013

posted in: 2013 NFL Picks | 0

Look no further, we are entering the last week of september and three weeks of football have come and gone. Several teams are good enough to call themselves undefeated, while others are hoping it doesn’t get worse after starting 0-3. Here are some things that I liked about week 3;

  • Kansas city seems like the real deal this year. After closing out Philadelphia you have to start considering that Denver isn’t the only contender in the AFC South this season. I expect this defense to be top ten all year, Andy Reid looks like just the change they needed.
  • The Giants are bad, really really bad. Eli Manning couldn’t a single thing going on offense in Carolina. He went completed only 11 of 23 passes and was sacked a season high 7 times. Serious concerns going forward for this bunch, no run game and a seemingly transparent defense. *cough* *cough* coughlin could be in trouble. 
  • The AFC is making the NFC look like chumps early on. Many analysts had the NFC the better of the two, through three weeks their records read AFC 28-20, NFC 20-28. 
  • New Orleans is loving having Sean Payton back and are looking like a real contender again. They are 3-0 for the first time since their 2009 Superbowl season, and this time around have the unstoppable basketball tight end Jimmy Graham.
  • Seattle looks like a team to ride again this year. They are officially 3-0 both straight up and against the spread. Not a bad place to invest some money until oddsmakers find the sweet spot with this team. 
  • The AFC South is the best division in football early on. Three teams have winning records after three weeks, that was unexpected.
  • Indianapolis stunned everyone with the way they handled San Francisco at home. Colin Kaepernick was held in check finishing 13 of 27 with only 150 yards and the 49ers lost back-to-back games for the first time under Jim Harbaugh. It will be interesting how he handles this and Aldon Smith fiasco going forward.
  • Miami is 3-0 for the first time since 2002 leaving Dolphins fans to once again have something to cheer about. Great news for them, and I don’t think we have seen the best of Ryan Tannenhill yet. 
Looking ahead to the week 4 match-ups my predictions are 5-6-1 this season. Lets hope this weekend is a little better than the last, this is where I will be placing my money on sunday. 

AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP












CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS

ODDS: BET365

Kicking off at 1PM EST this Sunday the Cleveland Browns (1-2) take on the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) for the first of two division games this season. The Browns are fresh off their first victory of the season while the Bengals aim to keep momentum, aiming for their third win in a row. Oddsmakers have Cincinnati listed as 4-point favourites, with a total set of 41.5-points. 
The Browns looked fantastic last week without Trent Richardson in the lineup. Rookie QB Brian Hoyer threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns en-route to beating up Minnesota at home. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, the Bengals are a much more well rounded team than the Vikings. Cincinnati enters this game averaging 25 points a game and they looked great last weekend in their comeback victory over the Packers. The only disappointing part of their game was the fact they turned the ball over so many times. Look for them to do a much better job at protecting possession this weekend. Particularly because last season in Cleveland they turned the ball over four times. 
Look for A.J Green to have a great day even though Joe Haden will be shadowing him all afternoon. He exploded in the season opener with 9 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Yet over the last two weeks combined he has only 87 yards and one touchdown. I am expecting big things from him this weekend. As for Cleveland, scoring won’t come as easily as it did last weekend in Minnesota. Cincinnati is the highest ranked defense they have faced all year; leading me to believe that the Bengals get revenge for last season’s loss in Cleveland. 
TRENDS 
BENGALS 
  • 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
  • 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win
  • 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing 350 total yards or more in their previous game
  • 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite 
  • 5-0 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
BROWNS 
  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game 
  • 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games against AFC opponents 
  • 1-6 straight up at home versus division opponent off straight up dog win
  • 1-6 versus opponents off straight up dog win betweens weeks 1-4
FINAL SCORE – CINCINNATI 26 – CLEVELAND 17



NFC WEST VS AFC SOUTH 











SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1.5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS 
ODDS: BET365

This game marks one of the most anticipated of the early season. Houston (2-1) is hoping they can hurdle early season injuries and stay atop the AFC South, while the Seahawks (3-0) aim for back-to-back victories against the very same division. Oddsmakers have instilled the Seahawks as 1.5-point favourites with the over/under set at 41.5.  
The Seahawks are officially listed as favourites to win the NFC conference this season; rightfully so if you ask me. Seattle has the #1 defense in the league through three weeks and are limiting opponents to 241 total yards per game. Much praise should go towards their lights out secondary. Almost every game Seattle has played this season has been a blowout forcing teams into throwing the ball, yet this defense has given up only one receiving touchdown all season, while snagging five interceptions along the way. Matt Shaub is going to need eagle vision if he has a chance at picking apart this Seahawks team. It could easily turn into a frustrating day offensively for the Texans this sunday.  
Houston ranks 2nd overall (only behind Seattle) in yards allowed per game defensively this season. Yet  still they have allowed 92 points through three weeks, the 9th most in the NFL. This is largely in part to terrible special teams play, unnecessary penalties, and costly turnovers. The bad news for Texan’s fans is I don’t see it getting any better this weekend against arguably the NFL’s best team. Expect this to be a game at halftime but look for Seattle to pull ahead in the latter part of the game.

TRENDS 


SEAHAWKS

  • 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
  • 13-3 against the spread versus a team with a winning record 
  • 7-1 as non-conference favourites off back-to-back straight up wins
  • 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games dating back to last season
  • 25-9-1 against the spread in their last 35 games overall
TEXANS
  • 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a loss by 14 points or more
  • 1-5 as non-division dogs of 6-points or less in weeks 1-4
  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – SEATTLE 27 – HOUSTON 17


NFC EAST VS AFC WEST



NEW YORK GIANTS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4)


ODDS: BET365 


The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to improve to 4-0 for the first time in 10 years this weekend when they welcome the New York Giants into Arrowhead stadium. The last time these two teams met was 2005 in New York with the Giants walking away victors 27-17. This time around Oddsmakers have instilled Kansas City as 4-point favourites with a total set of 44 points.

It is difficult to imagine the Giants playing worse than their terrible performance in Carolina last week, but that might just happen. Kansas city ranks higher both offensively and defensively than the Panthers do; and are playing fantastic football right now. This team already has more victories than what they reached all of last season, and the scary part is that team sent 6 players to the Pro Bowl last year. Look for Andy Reid to feel like he is back coaching in the NFC, this game is the Chiefs second of back-to-back games against his old NFC division. I expect that he will have the Kansas City defense well prepared for whatever Tom Coughlin has schemed. Keep in mind that 9 full days of rest can do wonders for a team when it comes to being mentally and physically prepared for a matchup.

The most important matchup and what could decide this game is how New York’s offensive line handles Justin Houston. Houston currently tops the NFL with 7.5 sacks already and I expect he should have plenty of looks at Eli on sunday. The Giants are allowing opposing teams to notch an average of 3.5 sacks per game this season; while Kansas City as a team leads the national football league with a total 15 on the year. Indicating that this game could get ugly for Giants fans if New York falls behind and Manning is forced into standing tall in the pocket.

TRENDS 


GIANTS 

  • 1-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
  • 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 road games
  • 8-17-1 against the spread in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game 
  • 0-3 against the spread this season

CHIEFS 

  • 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in week 4 
  • 4-0 off straight up win versus non-conference opponent off straight up loss
  • 5-1 after playing a thursday game
FINAL SCORE – NEW YORK 24 – KANSAS CITY 31 

AFC EAST VS NFC SOUTH  



NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-2)


ODDS: BET365


This Sunday Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will enter the Georgia Dome for the first time in 8 years. Atlanta (1-2) is hoping they can prevent themselves from losing two straight while the Patriots are trying to stay perfect on the season. Early oddsmakers have listed the Falcons as 2-point favourites with an over/under of 49.5 points.

The last time these two teams met in the Georgia Dome Michael Vick was under center for Atlanta. Much has changed in the Falcons franchise since those days, but little is different for the Patriots. Bill Belichick is still calling the plays and Brady is still under center. This tandem continues to terrorize almost every team they meet, but this weekend won’t be so easy. Atlanta has one of the best home records in the league over the last five years with Matt Ryan calling the shots; they are a combined 34-5 since he took over in 2008.

Atlanta enters this game ranked the 8th best pass defense in the league. They will have their hands full shutting down Tom Brady on Sunday night but that is exactly what I expect to happen. The latest reports suggest that both Danny Amendola and Gronkowski will suit up, but I can’t help but question how much impact they have in their first games back. This will be an interesting matchup to follow, especially given Atlanta currently ranks as one of the best secondary’s in the league when defending tight ends. As for the Patriots, their defense looked stout last weekend holding Tampa Bay to three points. But don’t let that pull a fast one on you, Atlanta has one of the most powerful offense’s in the league. Julio Jones is entering his prime and every game this season he has had either a touchdown, 100 yards receiving, or both.

This is the first real challenge that New England has faced this season. Starting 3-0 is great, but beating Buffalo Tampa Bay and the Jets along the way; not so much. Atlanta is a beast on their home turf, let me remind you the Falcons handed Denver one of their three losses last season; while no NFC team has a better regular season home record in the last five years.


TRENDS 


NEW ENGLAND

  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win
  • 1-4 against the spread after accumulating 150 rushing yards or more in the previous game
ATLANTA
  • 25-12-2 against the spread in their last 39 games following an against the spread loss
  • 23-9 against the spread in their last 32 games following a straight up loss
FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 31 – FALCONS 37