Week two of football is in the books, September is officially half over, and the final weekend of summer upon us. In case some of you missed out on the action last weekend here is a little roundup of most important headlines.
- Week two can be chalked up as the week that killed your fantasy football team. There was a ridiculous amount of injuries on the offensive side of the ball this week and the list starts here; Jamal Charles, A.J Green, DeSean Jackson, RG III, Knowshon Moreno, Vernon Davis, Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram. I don’t know about you folks but two of the players on that listed happen to land on my team. I’m hoping that most of you aren’t as unlucky as myself.
- The Buffalo Bills demolished Miami at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Many people were on the fence about who would win this game after Miami took down New England week 1. However, Buffalo proved many wrong (including myself) and won the game. All I can say is Bills fans don’t go jumping around just yet. Remember 2011 when you’re team started 5-2 then proceeded to lose 7 straight? Because I do.
- The Cowboys proved me wrong, they waltzed right into Tennessee and controlled the football game pretty much all day long. It should be interesting to see if Romo can keep this momentum up when they enter St. Louis this weekend.
- The Patriots bounced back in a huge way when the knocked off Minnesota 30-7 in Minneapolis. This game looked like it might be close early, but after New England blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown before half-time it was all but over.
- Brian Hoyer marched the Cleveland Browns 85 yards down field in the final two minutes to setup the game winning field goal against the New Orleans Saints. It was extremely impressive to say the least, and anyone who watched the game see a ripple is beginning between Sean Payton and defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan. Not a good start for this Saints team that plays in one of the toughest divisions in football.
- San Diego showed several people that Seattle is far from bullet proof and Richard Sherman can be thrown to. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates put on a clinic connecting for 3 touchdowns on route to a 30-21 spanking of the Seahawks.
- The Packers, Bears, and Eagles all rallied from 14 point deficits to win their perspective games. Each one was unique in itself but the most impressive had to be Chicago in San Francisco’s new stadium. Costly errors by Colin Kaepernick (3 interceptions) was the deciding factor.
- It turns out the Broncos are far from invincible, they nearly allowed Kansas City to march down the field in the final minutes and tie the football game up to force overtime; (which I must add would have earned me a hefty payday in the over/under’s for the day) but Alex Smith reminded us all he is the Alex Smith.
- Something to note; following two weeks of games we have 7 teams that are still undefeated. The Bills, Cardinals, Bengals, Panthers, Texans, Broncos and Eagles.
You could easily say that my predictions from last weekend were far from turning out. I went 1-3 with the Bengals proving to be the only winner I predicted. On a lighter note my picks went 3-1 in straight up victories. Below you’ll find who I like this upcoming weekend. Lets see if I can improve on my mediocre 3-5 record to start the year.
AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
ODDS: BET365
The Cleveland Browns (1-1) play their second of back-to-back home games this weekend when they welcome division rivals Baltimore (1-1) into Browns Stadium. Both these teams captured their first victories of the season in week two and aim to build momentum this Sunday. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Ravens as 1.5-point favourites with a total set of 41.5 points.
Both these teams surprised last weekend with huge wins but only one of them can continue that streak; and I’m placing my money on that being the Ravens. Baltimore looked great last Thursday night beating up Pittsburgh and have now had a full 10 days of rest to prepare for this matchup. When you begin to look at how these teams match up I expect Baltimore’s ability to stop the run ultimately winning them this game. Cleveland won last weekend, and hung around the previous game against Pittsburgh because of their run game. Through two weeks they are averaging over 150 yards per game on the ground. But facing a Ravens front seven that is amongst the best in the league is daunting. They are limiting opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per game. If Cleveland can’t get it started on the ground this weekend it’s highly unlikely they’ll get anything going on offense all together.
As for Baltimore, I’m expecting them to move the ball with ease and find the red zone regularly on Sunday. Cleveland has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league so far. They are giving up an average of 450 total yards per game and are allowing teams to gain a ridiculous 6.6 yards per play. These teams always play each other tough being division rivals but Baltimore has had Cleveland’s number for quite some time. They are 4-1 during the Jim Harbaugh era when playing in Brown’s Stadium; and I don’t see any reason why they can’t improve that record this Sunday.
TRENDS
BALTIMORE
- Road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between these teams
- 5-1 straight up in their last 6 road games in Cleveland
- 8-4 against the spread when coming off a divisional game in their last 3 seasons
- 17-4 straight up in the last 3 seasons when listed as a favourite
CLEVELAND
- 4-8 against the spread in all games lined between +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons
- 4-9 straight up versus divisional opponents the last 3 seasons
FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 23 – BROWNS 16
AFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST
HOUSTON TEXANS (-2) VS NEW YORK GIANTS
ODDS: BET365
The New York Giants (0-2) are aiming to get their first win of the regular season when they welcome the undefeated Houston Texans (2-0) into MetLife Stadium. This is the first meeting between these two teams since 2010 when the Giants handed the Texans a 34-10 loss at home. Oddsmakers have listed Houston as 2-point favourites for this game with an over/under set at 42.
The New York Giants might have changed their offensive playbook this past offseason but you wouldn’t know it with how they’ve played through two games. Their offense looks horrid and nobody seems capable of being that big play maker. Mind you, it doesn’t help when Eli Manning is your quarterback. Watching him play makes me want to vomit while obsessively asking myself the same question; how the hell did this guy ever win ONE Super Bowl? Never mind TWO!? He has some of the worst decision making abilities in the league and is already averaging 2 interceptions per game this year (never mind the fumbles). This guy is going to get eaten alive on Sunday. Houston has been playing terrific this season and their defense prides themselves on forcing turnovers. They already have 2 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles through two games. Look for them to add to that total.
If the Giants can’t get the run game going for this match up they won’t get anything going. Right now they are averaging 67 yards per game on the ground. If Houston can contain Rashad Jennings, (which hasn’t been proven difficult) they should have an easy day terrorising Eli Manning. Look for J.J Watt to put his stamp on this game. He has only one sack this year but should apply enough pressure for Manning to throw at least one interception this weekend. Giants lose two straight at home en route to throwing their name in the mix for worst team in the NFL. While the Texans put a stranglehold on the AFC South division.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 2-0 against the spread to start 2014
- 6-3 against the spread since 1992 when listed as a road favourite of 3-points or less
- 8-2 straight up in their last 3 seasons in September games
NEW YORK
- 2-6 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games at home
- 1-8 against the spread in their last 3 seasons in September games
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 3 seasons in non-conference games
- 0-6 straight up before a Thursday night game
- 0-3 against the spread as home dogs last season
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 27 – GIANTS 23
AFC WEST VS AFC EAST
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+2.5) VS BUFFALO BILLS
ODDS: BET365
The San Diego Chargers (1-1) travel across the country this weekend to take on the Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The last time these teams met was 2011 in San Diego and the Chargers ran over Buffalo 37-10. This time around Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Bills as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 44.5 points.
Buffalo has to be the biggest surprise of the season at this point. Several analysts had them pegged to be one of the worst teams in the leagues. Hell, even I considered putting money on them to finish with the worst record overall. Flash forward to week three and they are undefeated and tops of the AFC East division. But before every gets excited, lets come back down to earth and remember this is the Bills. They are quarterbacked by a less than spectacular E.J Manuel, while the Chargers have shown they deserve to be in discussions with the most elite teams in the league.
San Diego is fresh off the feat of taking down the defending Superbowl Champs; even better they made it look easy. Philip Rivers lit up Seattle’s secondary and should have no problem doing the same this weekend with Buffalo. The Bills currently rank 27th in the league against the pass and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to dice them up for 275 yards per game. Any hope for the Bills lies in the blitz package and pressuring Rivers into poor mistakes. But with San Diego’s offensive line coming off two games versus very good pass rushing teams and only allowing one sack; I don’t expect Rivers spends much time on his back this Sunday. That doesn’t bode well for a team like Buffalo that wins majority of their games by forcing turnovers.
TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
- Coach Mike McCoy is 5-1 versus non-divisional opponents off a straight up win
- Coach Mike McCoy is 6-1 versus opponents coming off divisional games
- 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games versus Buffalo
- 8-1 against the spread in their last 3 seasons playing in September
BUFFALO
- 0-6 off back-to-back straight up wins (last game vs division) versus opponents off straight up win
- 1-7 when above .500 home favourites versus above .500 opponents off straight up against the spread wins
- 0-4 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival
- Coach Doug Marrone is 2-5 off a straight up win
- Coach Doug Marrone is 1-4 off a straight up underdog win
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 23 – BILLS 17
AFC NORTH VS AFC SOUTH
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3)
ODDS: BET365
The Carolina Panthers (2-0) finish a two game home stand this weekend when they welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) into Bank Of America Stadium. Carolina could extend their home winning streak to 9 games with a win this weekend. While the Steelers aim to bounce back from an embarrassing performance in Baltimore last week. Oddsmakers have listed the Panthers as 3-point favourites with a total set of 42-points for this matchup.
Pittsburgh might be coming off 10 days rest but that isn’t going to help them against the Panthers. Carolina was one of the most feared defensive teams in the league last year and they look to be picking up right where they left off. Through two weeks they already have 7 sacks, 3 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles. They sit amongst the leaders in each one of these categories and I’m thinking they should have another fantastic game Sunday night. Alas, I cannot say the same for Pittsburgh’s defense. They have been atrocious this year giving up an average of 27 points and 170 rushing yards per game. This right here has red flags written all over it. Carolina was undefeated last season when they scored over 24 points and everyone knows the Panthers are a team that loves to run the ball. Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams make arguably the best quarterback/one/two running back tandem in the league. Every one of them is capable of breaking off for long runs and I expect to see plenty of that this weekend.
Keep your eyes focused on the stats for this matchup. Carolina’s defense held nine opponents to under 300 total yards last season and Pittsburgh has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. Panther should have no problem improving on their league best +6 turnover margin on route to another win at home this weekend.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 7-14 against the spread in their last 21 games on the road
- 1-8 against the spread in their last three years playing during September
- 4-7 straight up off a divisional game the last three years
CAROLINA
- 5-0 at home versus opponents off double-digit straight up loss
- 7-4 against the spread in the last three seasons off two or more consecutive wins
- 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 home games
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 16 – PANTHERS 24