As we enter the final week of summer two weeks of football have already come and gone, before you know it there will be snowfall. Here are a couple things I’m taking note of from week two in the NFL;
- I am expecting Ron Rivera’s tenure as the Carolina Panthers head coach is quickly coming to a close. The Panthers have started 0-2, they face the Giants this week, then will enter their bye week. If they don’t win this week then I expect Rivera is out at the coach. 12 losses by 6 points or less speaks volumes, terrible coaching.
- The AFC West (6-2) and AFC East (6-2) hold the best divisional records in football to this point. Two of the biggest surprises have been Miami (2-0) and Kansas City (2-0). It is looking like off season acquisitions are paying off for both these teams.
- The Washington Redskins Defense is atrocious and RG III doesn’t look like who we remember. This team has allowed an average of 515 yards through two games and 71 total points
- It looks like Tom Brady can’t carry the world on his shoulders, or this Patriots offense. They barely squeaked past the Jets on thursday night, Gronk couldn’t come back sooner.
- Chicago and Matt Forte are loving the Marc Trestman era. They have started 2-0 for the first time in two seasons while Forte already has a quarter the receptions he had all of last year.
- It looks a coaching change has revitalized Philip Rivers career. Through two games he already has 7 touchdowns and only one interception. To put it into context he had only 25 touchdowns all of last year.
- The Seahawks absolutely embarrassed the 49ers. Following this game I find it hard to see anyone beating Seattle at home this season.
- Denver has scored 24 more points than anyone else in the league. Through two games they are averaging 45 points an outing and still have room to improve with Von Miller still serving his suspension. Its going to take a lot to slow down this team.
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games overall
- 0-4 against the spread when scoring 15 points or less in their previous game
- 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 3
- 1-5 against the spread versus NFC North in their last 6 games
- 5-1-2 against the spread in their last 8 games in week 3
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games overall
- 9-1 against the spread as non-conference favourites of 4 or more points
- Coach Greg Schiano is 4-1 against the spread when playing as a non-division dog
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 road games
- 17-5 against the spread when playing on the road versus a team with a winning home record
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games in September
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
- 1-4 against the spread after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game
- 1-3 versus sub .500 NFC South opponents
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-19)
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in September
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a road underdog
- 34-16-1 against the spread in their last 51 home games
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in week 3
- 7-1 against the spread when playing at home last season
- 12-1 versus opponents off back-to-back straight up losses
AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
OAKLAND RAIDERS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-15)
ODDS: BET365
Kicking off monday night football this week will be the Oakland Raiders (1-1) taking on the Denver Broncos (2-0). Peyton Manning is looking to make the Broncos 3-0 for the first time since 2009. Oddsmakers have released Denver as 15-point favourites with a set of 49 points for this divisional matchup.
I can’t help but admit that Oakland is much better than I expected them to be through two games this year. They currently rank the as 4th best defense in the league, allowing only 261 total yards per game. Keep in mind that was against Indianapolis and Jacksonville; Denver is a whole new beast. The Broncos are averaging 462 yards/game and have already scored 90 points this season. Peyton made both the defending champs and the New York Giants look like chumps, expect a similar result on monday night against the Raiders. Look for Oakland to try and establish a run game, they currently sit 2nd overall averaging 198.5 yards per game on the ground. Unfortunately for them Denver is the best run defense in the league giving only 40.5 total yards per game. Although I feel like this ranking is somewhat misleading, Denver has been winning so big in both games this season it forces their opponents to abandon the run game in hopes of making a comeback. Look for the same thing to happen on monday, unfortunately for Oakland, they haven’t found the same success in their passing game. They are averaging only 157.5 yards through the air this season. Rookie quarterback Tyrell Pryor is in for the most difficult game in his career. This Denver defense leads the NFL with 6 interceptions already this season, they should add to that total on monday.
It is scary to think that this Denver team is only going to get better. Wes Welker is only starting to get on the same page as Manning; he saw 8 targets last week but only finished with three catches. Its hard to imagine the Bronco’s putting up 40 points every game this season, but until I see otherwise I’m riding the Bronco’s much like the girls ride the mechanical bull at Cowgirls. Expect Denver to show the nation this monday who the real Superbowl favourites are.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 monday night games
- 1-16 versus divisional opponents off a straight up against the spread victory
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as an underdog
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- 9-1 off a double digit non divisional win versus divisional opponent
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games overall