With week 2 of the NFL all chalked up I am currently sitting at 4-4 with my picks and barely batting .500. Lets take a look at some important things that happened this past week:
- The Giants looked like last years Superbowl’s winners coming back from a 14 point deficit in the 4th quarter to win the game. Maybe Eli can be the Rodgers of last season?
- The Bills defense looked good..really good. It could have been for the fact they were playing Kansas City who is awful through.
- The Eagles won their second game of the season by 1 point. This is the first time ever in the NFL that a team has won their first two games by 1 point and had as many turnovers (9) as the eagles have.
- The Cardinals came into gillette stadium and beat the Patriots. Yes, I still can’t believe this but it happened. I’m sure a lot of people who picked the Pats in elimination pools were cursing when Gostkowski missed the game winning field goal wide.
- The Chargers started 2-0 for the first time since 2006 when the finished 14-2; all without their star running back Ryan Mathews
- The 49ners still have the best defense in the league and WILL go undefeated at home this year
- I don’t think I have ever seen worse officiating than in the monday night game. It took 3 hours to get to half-time, and at times it looked as though the refs had no idea to what call should be made.
Here are my week 3 Picks;
GAME 1
BUFFALO BILLS (-3) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
With this game I’m going with none other than the Bills. Cleveland has looked like crap this year. Although their defense has put up the most fantasy points out of any team to this point in the season, that doesn’t mean success; looking at the real stats they are ranked 29th in the league through two games for overall defense. The Bills on the other hand have the best running back in the league right now. CJ Spiller has ran for over 190 yards and 3 touchdowns through 2 games this season and is clearly the most pivotal point of this offense. He seems unstoppable right now and I don’t see his streak of 100 yards per game rushing stopping in Cleveland. Looking to the last time these teams met in 2010 Buffalo won 13-6. I expect this game to be similar with a quite a few turnovers and interceptions on the day, mostly coming from the hands of a man named Brandon Weeden.
Buffalo’s defense looked good last week until the 4th quarter in garbage time when the game was already wrapped up and they solidified the win. Not only that but the Bills are 4-1 against the AFC north in the last couple years. I say roll the dice with this one; Buffalo ends the game on top.
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 24 – BROWNS 13
GAME 2
SAN FRANCISCO 49NERS (-9.5) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
As much as it breaks my heart to make this pick because the vikings are my team, the 49ners are going to come into Minnesota and stomp all over them. This game isn’t even going to be close, frankly I am surprised where they placed the spread, I thought it would have been more than a two score. The last time these teams met was 2009, the Vikings went on to finish 13-3 while the 49ners finished at 8-8; oh how the tables have turned. I heard from a lot of people this past week maybe the 49ners will take this game easy because the vikings are crap this year and come out flat. That is one of the last things I expect to see in this game, Jim Harbaugh has this team whipped and every week they come out ready. We also can’t forget that 2009 game when the 49ners were up 24-20 with the fourth quarter game clock running out and good ole Brett Farve threw a touchdown pass to seal the last second win for the Vikings. This loss I’m sure is still fresh in the wounds of several of these players and they will be looking for vengeance.
If you combine that with the fact that the Vikings only real offensive threat is Adrian Peterson and he is coming of knee surgery. Although he looked good through two games he will not look good today, the 49ners are going to stuff him all day long giving him nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. I would be surprised if he passed the 50 yard rushing mark all day because they are going to fall behind early in this game, give up on the rush and have to throw the ball to catch up. The 49ners offense have looked hot through two games; look for the 9’ers to win and for them to win big today.
FINAL SCORE – 49ners 30 – Vikings 10
GAME 3
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
Its always so difficult to bet against an offense that is as talented and as deep as the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper everything always adds up nicely and says of course the eagles will beat the spread, how could they not, look at the offensive weapons they have. Yet through two weeks the Eagles have gone 2-0 are actually 0-2 against the spead. I like this game and this week to be the one where not only do they improve their season record to 3-0 but their spread record to 1-2.
Now I know how good the cardinals looked last week at shutting down the patriots; one of the most explosive offenses in the league and an upset nobody saw coming; this week will not be the same. The Cardinals defense held them in the game last week and their mediocre offense put up points for them to slip by with the win. This week they face the 4th best defense against the pass, although how much does this really matter because Kevin Kolb doesn’t even use the best receiver on this team and one of the best in the league Larry Fitzgerald. They won’t be able to pull a fast one past the Eagles defense this week and although I see this game being close in the first half, it will be decided in the second. The eagles will pull away when Kolb forces throws into places he shouldn’t looking to get first downs and ends up turning the ball over. LeSean McCoy is going to run all over this defense and if this doesn’t happen Vick will get it done with the play action pass. I like the Eagles to improve to 3-0 and win their first game of the season by more than 1 point all while doing a much better job at holding onto the ball.
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 31 – CARDINALS 19
GAME 4
HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5) VS DENVER BRONCOS
The last game I am predicting this week is the Texans to stampede into Denver and finish out sunday with a win. Houston I believe is the second best team in the league right now trailing only the 49ners, however their offense is much much better. Peyton won his first outing at home against the Steelers in week 1 but we have to remember that was a much weaker offense AND defense than this Texans team and that game wasn’t decided until the final minutes of the game. This game will be close and I would be surprised to see Peyton throw another 4 interceptions but he is back outdoors and facing the two headed dragon in Arian Foster/Ben Tate. These guys combined have gone for over 260 yards rushing and 5 TD’s in the last 2 games. Every team this year is going to have a hard time stopping these two guys and I don’t see Denver being the first successful ones.
Houston ranks 1st overall in total yards allowed defensively while Denver sits 8th. Both these teams are extremely gifted on defense but also have the offenses that can put up points too. Looking at this season Houston has a 2-0 record and are 2-0 against the spread. They have outscored their opponents by an average of 20 points through two games and if you are still pondering whether they can come into Denver and walk out with a win sunday, Houston is 7-0 against the spread after playing the Jaguars. This will be a battle of defenses and could turn out to be the game of the week; the Texans walk away winners.
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 20 – BRONCOS 13