Week one surely satisfied our six month long football drought. But in turn it sent sports books in Vegas reeling. Favourites finished a combined 9-5-1 on Sunday. It was one of the best opening weekends for favourites in recent history. In 2014 favourites covered the spread in only 4 of 16 games. While this weekend will surely provide different results, lets take a look at some take away from week one.

• Miami took down the Redskins at home but was not nearly as simple as many expected. Ryan Tannenhill left many throws short or long and if it wasn’t for Jarvis Landry and special teams they might have lost this game. They still ended up covering the 4-point spread, but I say tread lightly betting on this team in the next few weeks.
• Tyrod Taylor. Bills fans everywhere are scrambling to Dick’s sporting goods to grab this mans Jersey. He made Buffalo’s offense look magical and with a solid defensive outing they had one of the most commanding wins all weekend. Put an asterisk beside them this weekend, they host the Patriots. This could be their biggest game all season.
• The New York Jets clobbered the Cleveland Browns. I’m not sure what we should really take away from this game. Watching it just put a bad taste in my mouth. None-the-less, the Browns made New York look really good, much better than they actually are. While the Browns might be doomed with quarterback problems once again this season.
• Kansas City finished yet another game without completing a touchdown to a wide-receiver but their offense looked on point. Alex Smith looked in rhythm for most of this game and the final score actually isn’t indicative to how badly the Chiefs controlled the line of scrimmage. Houston scored 11-points in garbage time.
• St. Louis defeated Seattle for the third time in four years at home. Without Kam Chancellor the Seahawks secondary looked vulnerable, while St. Louis looks like they might have the most complete defense in the entire league. I’m thinking this could be the year Seattle is de-throned as the NFC West champions.
• Detroit came out of the gates hot but fizzled down the stretch against San Diego. The Chargers roared back from a 3-20 deficit while Keenan Allen caught 15 passes. It looks like the Lions really are going to miss Suh. They couldn’t pressure Rivers at all in the second-half.
• Arizona defeated New Orleans at home but lost their starting running-back in doing so. While Carson Palmer showed no signs of slowing down throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. New Orleans looks like they could struggle in the secondary yet again this season. At least they have Tampa Bay to beat up on this coming weekend.
• The Broncos and Ravens combined for the most boring game all weekend. Not a single offensive touchdown was scored and Peyton Manning looked like a shell of himself. While Baltimore lost Terrell Suggs for the entire season with a torn achilles. Honestly, neither one of these teams excite me this season.
• Cincinnati had the most convincing win all weekend defeating Oakland 33-14. Andy Dalton lit up the Raiders secondary and brought everyone back down to earth after the big expectations from the pre-season. It looking to me that it’s going to be at least another season until the Raiders are relevant.
• Marcus Mariota became the first rookie quarterback to complete four touchdowns in his first game, and he accomplished it in the first half. Tennessee fans officially have something to be excited about.
• Tony Romo lead the best comeback all weekend lost his best weapon in doing so. Dez Bryant is out anywhere between 6-10 weeks and without him the Cowboys could struggle. Starting this weekend In Philadelphia.
• Julio Jones looked electric in his first game of the season. He amassed 9 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night football and is already making my prediction of him leading the league in receiving yards this season look optimistic. If the Falcons defense takes even the smallest step forward, Atlanta could be a 10 win team this season.
• Minnesota absolutely flopped on Monday night against San Francisco. In a game that was supposed to be Adrian Peterson’s return game, turned out to be a Carlos Hyde coming out party. He finished the week with more rushing yards than any other running back (168 yards) and two touchdowns. It turns out the 49ers might not be as bad as anyone expected (including myself)

Looking back at my week one predictions I’m showing a 2-2 record. The Dolphins and Bengals were both able to cover spreads while the Colts and Vikings slipped in the power rankings both getting blown out. I’ve decided heading into week two I’m gonna take a different approach on the four games I pick each week. I’ll be attributing a value to each of the predictions I make so you can all see which game I feel most confident about heading into each week. For the time being I’ll refer to my wagers in a “Loot Value”. Giving a game anywhere between a 100-1000 value for which I believe it is worth the look and investment. With that established, lets take a look to where I see the loot sitting this weekend.

 

 

ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5)

 

The New York Giants (0-1) look to earn their first win of the season when they host the Atlanta Falcons (1-0) this weekend at MetLife Stadium. Surely fans will be happy to welcome the Giants home, but they have to feel burned after their last second loss against division rivals Dallas last Sunday night. None the less, Oddsmakers expect the Giants to control this game listing them as 2.5-point favourites, with a total set of 51.5.

Eli Manning and the Giants offense looked terrible in their first outing of the season, but I’m looking for a bounce back game this weekend. Since 2013 New York is 6-3 against the spread as home favourites and cover the spread by an average of 4-points. While Atlanta arguably had one of the biggest upset wins of week one taking down Philadelphia, you should not overreact. The Falcons always play better in the Georgia Dome (remember the fines for pumping crowd noise into the stadium?). But Atlanta on the road is a whole other story. Matt Ryan is 3-12 in his last 15 games played away from home, and has 22 interceptions across that same span.

Both these teams could very well combine for over 60 points in this game. Neither of their secondaries played well in week one allowing over 350 yards, putting them 30th and 31st in the entire league. With big time receivers like Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. this could turn into a battle of who can score more points. But with New York holding home field advantage and still thirsty for their first victory of their season, this looks like a great spot for them to clock their first win.

The Giants loss against Dallas last weekend was absolutely sole crushing. But they can take serenity in the fact their defense forced three turnovers and held a Dallas rushing attack under 100 yards. Look for New York to have a bounce back game this weekend and deflate Falcon’s fans tires after their big week one victory. Matt Ryan is 1-6 straight up and against the spread in road openers since taking over as the start in Atlanta.Plus its been over 10 years since the Falcons defeated New York in MetLife Stadium. Looking good for Giants fans this weekend.

TRENDS

ATLANTA

• 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a victory
• 3-7 against the spread after recording more than 250 passing yards in their previous 10 games
• 0-5 against the spread as road underdogs of less than 7-points versus opponents under a .250 record

 NEW YORK

• 5-0 against the spread after allowing 350 yards passing or more in their previous game
• 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home favourite
• 6-1 before facing the Redskins

LOOT VALUE – 650

FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 23 – GIANTS 30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS BUFFALO BILLS (+1)

 

The New England Patriots (1-0) travel north this weekend to take on the Buffalo Bills (1-0) in Ralph Wilson stadium. Buffalo will be aiming to win their second straight game against the Patriots. While Tom Brady will be looking to improve his career record against Buffalo to 24-3. For this divisional matchup oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 1-point road favourites with a total of 45-points expected for this game.

This game could have huge implications late in the season and I’m sure both teams are well aware. While its no secret that New England, Tom Brady, and Bill Bellichick have had the Bills number in the last 15 seasons. Yet, I’m a firm believer in this being the year things turn around for Buffalo. I was just as shocked as anyone with Tyrod Taylor in the first game of the season. He looked more mobile than any quarterback they have had since Doug Flutie, and was capable of standing in the pocket and completing his check downs when necessary. It was only when Indianapolis put the pressure on he ran and picked up valuable yardage with his legs. It’s not a matter of Buffalo requiring a Peyton Manning like quarterback under center this season, they just need someone who isn’t going to make costly mistakes; and Taylor might just be that guy. He had zero interceptions and zero sacks in his first game. If he can replicate a similar outing this weekend it will surely give Buffalo a chance to capture a second victory.

Patriots offensive line versus Buffalo base 4-3 defense. This matchup that will set pace for the game, and should decide who wins the game. If Rex Ryan is able to implement the same pressure he achieved against Andrew Luck this weekend Tom Brady could be in trouble. Luck was pressured all day, sacked twice and threw two interceptions. While Brady is much more experienced, his offensive line is not a whole lot better. They had rookie Tre’ Jackson starting at right guard in game one and if thats the case this weekend, he is going to have his hands plenty full with Mario Williams at defensive end. Williams finished 4th last season with 14.5 sacks. Expect him to tag Brady at least once this weekend.

Tom Brady’s average quarterback rating against Rex Ryan and the Jets between 2009-2014 was 59.1. Against all other opponents it was 70.8. This should make it clear, Rex knows how to draw up defensive schemes to pressure Brady and the same should happen this weekend. It’s the most talented defensive roster he’s had to operate with since the 2010 Jets that cruised into the post-season and defeated the Patriots in the divisional round. Expect yet another loud game in Ralph Wilson and for the Bills to improve to 2-0 for the second season in a row.

TRENDS

NEW ENGLAND

• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in September
• 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as a road favourite
• 6-11 against the spread in all road games the last three seasons
• 4-8 against the spread versus divisional opponents

BUFFALO

• 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a underdog
• 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games versus divisional opponents
• 6-3 against the spread in their last 9 games in September

LOOT VALUE – 625

FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 13 – BILLS 24

 

 

 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3)

 

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) are set to host the San Diego Chargers (1-0) in their home opener this weekend. Both teams are flying in from the west coast and aim to remain undefeated this season. With the Bengals listed as 3-point home favourites, San Diego looks to capitalize in the underdog role. While oddsmakers have listed the total for this game at 46.5.

Both these teams started the regular season with a win, but it was Cincinnati’s victory that was much more convincing. They never trailed during the entire game and once again reminded us how strong their defense is. They forced two turnovers and allowed third lowest total yards in the league at 246. While some of you might want to remind me they played Oakland. I like to focus on the fact this same team went 5-2-1 at home last season and won games by an average of nearly 13-points per game.

Keep you’re attention focused on the battle between Cincinnati’s offensive line and Detroit’s defensive front. The Bengals have allowed the third fewest sacks last season (23) and didn’t allow Dalton to get tagged even once in their season opener. While San Diego has a much better pass rush than the Raiders, I can guarantee you the Chargers won’t be coming back from a 21-3 deficit against the Bengals.

San Diego absolutely crushing Detroit in time of possession week one. They held the ball for 38 minutes of a the possible 60, best in the league. Don’t expect things to come quite so easy for Philip Rivers and this offense this weekend. Cincinnati can be one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL to travel into. While the Bengals are a top ten defensive team at limiting opponents on third down conversions. Circle this game on the schedule, it might be one of the best all weekend. Just make sure you get it right, Cincinnati improves to 2-0

TRENDS

SAN DIEGO

• 0-4 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
• 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog
• 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games against AFC opponents
• 1-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record

CINCINNATI

• 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 home games
• 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games played in week 2
• 7-0 against the spread versus teams with winning records while playing at home
• 8-3 against the spread following a straight up win of 14-points or more

LOOT VALUE – 750

FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 17 – BENGALS 27

 

 

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS

 

The Chicago Bears (0-1) look to win their first home game in five straight attempts this weekend when they host the Arizona Cardinals (1-0). Arizona has started 2-0 in three of the last four seasons and Oddsmakers are banking on that happening yet again. They have made the Cardinals 1.5-point road favourites for this inter-conference matchup, with a total set of 42 points.

I’ve seen enough of Jay Cutler. I think we’ve all seen enough Jay Cutler. We know who this guy is, and what to expect of him as a quarterback. He continually makes the same mistakes and it was seen again in week one with a costly late interception against the Packers. Unfortunately for Bears fans, things are only going to get more difficult this weekend. Arizona closed out last season giving up an average of one passing touchdown per game, and ranked inside the top five teams in the league allowing only 19 points per game. If held the Saints explosive offense to that exact total in week one, its not looking good for Chi-town.

I’d just like to warn all you bettors. Don’t get yourself to caught up in the Bears this season. They look nearly a reflection of the team they were last season, and that doesn’t bode well. Cutler finished with over 200 passing yards in only four home games last season; and has thrown at least one touchdown in 8 of his last 9 games at Solider Field.

While Arizona should be without their starting running back, I’m expecting Carson Palmer to lead the Cardinals to a second straight victory. With all the injuries Palmer has suffered in the last two seasons in is easy to ignore just how good he has been when on the field. In his last 16 starts for the red birds he has a 14-2 record. This guy hasn’t lost since 2013 for pete’s sake! While Chicago surely has a home-field advantage this weekend, their defense gave up the third most yards per game in the entire NFL all last season (378); and allowed teams to convert on third downs nearly 43% of the time. This doesn’t add up well for Bears fans, the Cardinals converted over 50% of their third downs in week one, and racked up a staggering 427 total yards (4th most in the entire league week one). Take the points and bet Arizona as a road favourite this weekend. You all know I will be.

TRENDS

ARIZONA

• 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games following a straight up win
• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games in week two
• 7-0 against the spread after allowing 250 passing yards or more in the previous game
• Bruce Arians is 6-1 as favourites versus opponents of a divisional game
• Bruce Arians is 22-4-2 against the spread as a head coach versus sub .600 opponents

BEARS

• 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3 points
• 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games following an against the spread loss
• 3-8 against the spread after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game
• 1-7 at home versus non-diviisonal opponents off a double-digit straight up win in weeks 1-4

LOOT VALUE – 875

FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 23 – BEARS 14