Week 2 NFL Picks 2014

posted in: 2014 NFL Picks | 0

Week one is in the books and we all got a taste of what to come for the next four months! Incase some of you missed this past weekend’s action, here is a little roundup;

  • Seattle look exactly like the same team that took home the Superbowl a couple months ago. They crushed the Packers at CenturyLink Field by 20 and looked a lot like a team that still has something to prove. What’s even more terrifying is Percy Harvin is starting the season healthy and I can’t think of another player in the league that offers the versatility, and big play making capabilities that he has. Betting on Seattle to win the NFC West at -163 looks awfully tempting right about now. 
  • If took until week eleven last year for the Chiefs to drop a game at home, but not this year. Tennessee looked like the much better team all day and question’s already begin to arise around Kansas City over whether this team has what it takes to repeat a playoff performance. My gut instinct is telling me “hell no” when I look at their division. But then again, when you own one of the most talented running backs in football, anything is possible. 
  • The Patriots lost their first game of the season. The last time that happened? 2003 against the Buffalo Bills. No thanks to Darrelle Revis, he looked to be drowning in all the cash New England paid him. He allowed Mike Wallace to breakout for 81 yards on 7 catches and a touchdown. Not something you expect from your “elite cornerback”. But the big focal point of this matchup should be Miami’s victory. Facing the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oakland Raiders the next three weeks; starting 4-0 for the first time since the Dan Marino era looks like almost a guarantee. 
  • The Buffalo Bills knocking off the Chicago Bears at home had to be the upset of the weekend. Nobody saw this one coming, including myself. Chicago’s offense didn’t look in sync nearly the entire game and clearly they are still dealing issues on their offensive line. 
  • Minnesota walked into St. Louis and laid the smack down harder than anyone else on Sunday. They crushed the Rams by 28 points and made them look absolutely terrible. Fantastic start for Vikings fans and new head coach Mike Zimmer.
  • Houston snapped the longest losing streak in the NFL and handed it right over to their opponents, the Washington Redskins. The real takeaways from this game is Clowney was injured early and looks like he will be missing a good portion of the season. While RG III and Washington’s offense looked horrendous. It’s that time to once again start questioning if RG III is the real deal or just an injury risk. 

Following week one my record sits at a standstill of 2-2. Minnesota and Houston both covered as I predicted, while Green Bay and Chicago stumbled out the gate. Below you’ll find where I will be placing all my money this weekend. 
NFC EAST VS AFC SOUTH 











DALLAS COWBOYS VS TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) 

ODDS: BET365 

Kicking off at 1pm EST this weekend we see the Dallas Cowboys (0-1) enter LP Field to take on the Tennessee Titans (1-0). The last time these two teams met was during the 2010 season. Tennessee entered Dallas as 7-point underdogs and came out as 7-point victors. This time around it will be the Titans welcoming the Cowboys to town. Oddsmakers have listed Tennessee as 3-point favourites for their first home game of the season, with a total set of 49.5 points. 
Nothing pleases me more than seeing a team undervalued when playing at home. Tennessee looked great last weekend racking up 4 sacks and 3 interceptions in Kansas City. Now they welcome a terrible Cowboys team to town for their 2014 homecoming party. Dallas couldn’t have looked worse to start the season if they tried, on only their second offensive play of the season they gave up a 35-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. Analysts expected the Cowboys to be terrible on defense this year, but nobody figured the offense would looked equally as bad. Keep your eye’s locked on Jason Garrett for this matchup. Another poor day of play calling and Dallas fumbles, he will no longer be on the hot seat, his pants will be on fire. I’m expecting Tennessee to have a fantastic opener cleaning up Tony Romo and picking apart this ravaged defense all day. 
It has surely been forgotten that the Titans started 3-1 last season. They had flashes of brilliance early on but after losing Jake Locker to a season ending foot injury their record took a turn for the worst. With him back in the lineup it makes Tennessee a legitimate team on both sides of the ball and we should see that this weekend. Look no further than the fact Dallas hasn’t won a game outside their division on the road since 2012. It’s looking like it will be another ugly weekend to be a Cowboys fan.

TRENDS 

DALLAS 
  • 1-6 when the over/under is set above 48 points
  • 3-6 straight up in their last 9 games on the road
TENNESSEE
  • 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 games against Dallas 
  • 8-0 versus opponents off double-digit straight up loss with revenge
  • 13-2 at home versus non-divisonal opponent with revenge
FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 17 – TITANS 24 



NFC SOUTH VS AFC NORTH

ATLANTA FALCONS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-5)

ODDS: BET365

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) aim to win their third straight home opener this weekend when they welcome the Atlanta Falcons (1-0) into Paul Brown Stadium. With a victory the Falcons would be half-way to their total wins during all of last season. While the Bengals would extend their league best home winning streak to ten games. Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati has 5-point favourites for this matchup with a total set of 48-points. 
Cincinnati has allowed just one 300 yard passing game in their last 16 games played at home. This doesn’t bode well for a team like Atlanta that relies so heavily on their passing attack. Matt Ryan had 448 passing yards last week in a tremendous performance at home, but they still barely squeaked out a win in overtime. Without another elite passing performance expect the Falcons to struggle moving the ball. Cincinnati finished fifth in the league last year limiting opponents to an average of 96 yards per game rushing. While the Falcons haven’t had a player gain over 100 yards rushing in a game since 2012! 
The Bengals defense will be the game changer for this matchup. They finished ranked the 3rd best defensive team in the league last season, and won each of their home games by an average of 17 points. All I can say is tread water carefully Atlanta fans. Indications point towards the Falcons being in trouble playing against the best home team in all of football last year. 
TRENDS 
ATLANTA 
  • 1-4 in games before playing the Buccaneers
  • 28-41 against the spread since 1992 off a win against a divisional rival
CINCINNATI
  • 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games at home playing against Atlanta
  • 5-1 against the spread in the last 3 seasons favoured between 3.5-7 points
  • 6-1 against the spread in the last 3 seasons against non-conference opponents
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 17 – BENGALS 27 





AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-12) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Denver Broncos (1-0) are looking to win their 3rd straight home opener this weekend when they welcome Kansas City (0-1) into Mile High Stadium. The first of two scheduled meetings between these teams is set to kick-off at 4:25pm EST. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Broncos as massive 12-point favourites with the over/under set at 51. 
This game has “Denver covers” written all over it. Nobody in the NFL looked worse than the Kansas City Chiefs last week. They were only able to muster a total of 245 yards on offense and scored only 10 total points (7 of which came in total garbage time I must add). Remember, this all happened at home in Arrowhead stadium. Combine that with the fact they surrendered 26 points on defense to a team that many would say is lacking “offensive talent”, and you have area for concern. To put it into context just how bad this performance was; week 10 last year was the first time the Chiefs gave up more than 20 points in a game (and it was against Denver). Playing on the road against a team like Denver, it wouldn’t surprise me to watch them give up 40 this Sunday. 
A major contributor to my confidence in Denver (aside from their ridiculously good offense) lies in the Chiefs injury problems. Both Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito ruptured their achilles tendons last week, these guys are amongst the most important defensive players for Kansas City. Without them in the lineup moving the chains should happen like clockwork for this Broncos offense (not that it doesn’t already). Look for Peyton Manning to finish somewhere around 400 yards and 4 touchdowns this weekend on route to putting up 30+ points against the Chiefs in consecutive games. 
TRENDS 

KANSAS CITY 
  • 4-8 against the spread the last 3 seasons against divisional opponents 
  • 7-12 against the spread in the last 3 seasons as an underdog 
  • 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games versus Denver
DENVER 
  • 2-0 agains the spread in the last 3 seasons when favourites between 10.5-14 points
  • 8-3 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last 3 seasons
  • 16-3 straight up in their last 19 games at home
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 13 – BRONCOS 34 


AFC EAST VS NFC NORTH






NEW YORK JETS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Green Bay Packers (0-1) aim to bounce back from their week one loss when they host the New York Jets (1-0) at Lambeau Field this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25PM EST. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Packers as 8-point favourites with a total set of 46 points. 
I’m expecting Green Bay to come out angry with something to prove in this matchup. They got ran over last week in Seattle and everyone should expect to see them on the opposite end of that spectrum this weekend. They are coming off ten full days of rest to prepare for this game and to be brutally honest; the Jets suck on the road and their offense is awful. Geno Smith was one of the worst quarterback in the league on the road. He threw two or more interceptions in five of the eight road games they played and topped the list with the worst quarterback rating in the league! Yes, even Eli Manning and Matt Schaub finished with better ratings. 
Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a monster game. I’m expecting him to completely dismantle this Jets secondary and remind everyone that he is the most talented quarterback in the league. The Jets might enter this game with the better record, but we all know Green Bay is the better team. Expect to see that this weekend. 
TRENDS 

NEW YORK 
  • 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on the road
  • 2-8 as non-conference underdogs of 4-points or more
GREEN BAY
  • 9-1 versus above .500 non-conference opponents
  • 14-10 against the spread in the last 3 seasons when the favourite
  • 10-3 straight up in the last 3 seasons as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points
FINAL SCORE – JETS 16 – PACKERS 38