Week 2 NFL Picks 2013

Looking ahead this weekend is packed with great football games. We get the chance to see the two Manning brothers face off in New York, while two early Superbowl favourites (Seattle/San Francisco) face off on sunday night. One word of advice I have to all you gamblers out there is don’t over exaggerate the results from this past week. Several of you might think you already have it dialled in riding a high after your week one results. But remember, last year in week two the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, Redskins, and Broncos all lost. Each one of these teams were playoff teams last season. 

My week one picks flopped, going a combined 1-2-1. In my defense several games were very close and could have gone either way. Had Cincinnati avoided the stupid penalty they would have received the ball and could have easily tied the game sending it to overtime. While the Packers were once again victims of poor refereeing. They granted the 49ers a new set of downs on what should have been a 4th down, in my eyes changing the outcome of the game. Lets hope this weekend I see some better results, here are the games I like come sunday.

NFC SOUTH VS AFC EAST  

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) VS BUFFALO BILLS 

ODDS: BET 365

This matchup is set to kick-off at 1pm EST in Ralph Wilson Stadium, with both of these teams still eager to capture their first victory of the season. Early oddsmakers have the Panthers instilled as 3-point favourites with a total set of 43 points.

Nobody expected the Bills to contend with the Patriots the way they did, especially under both a rookie quarterback and head coach. But many people have already forgotten how different this game could have unfolded based on two key plays. The first, if Tom Brady hadn’t thrown an interception with under a minute left in the first half; Patriots walk into half-time up by ten points, not three. The other play was the Patriots first possession of the second half. Brady burned almost seven minutes off the clock driving all the way down the field only to fumble on the Bills one yard line. Neither of theses plays unfold the way they did and Patriots win by double digits. You might be asking yourself what is my point? Well my point is I don’t buy into the fact Buffalo is any better than last year. They look to be without one of their best defensive players again in week two with safety Jarius Byrd. While the Bills offensive strength, their run game, is in for a tough day against Carolina. The Panthers gave up only 70 yards on the ground against Seattle last week. The same Seattle team that averaged the third most rushing yards per game last year.

I can’t wait for Cam Newton to teach E.J Manuel a thing or two this sunday. It’s only a matter of time until this Panthers team starts stringing victories together and I believe Buffalo is where they start. In the last three seasons Carolina has lost 11 games by 6 points or less, including this years week one loss against Seattle. I expect the Panthers to take control of this game early and a great defense performance propels them to victory.

TRENDS

PANTHERS 

• 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games coming off an against the spread loss 
• 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road favourite between 0.5-3 points
• 11-4 as road favourite playing opponent off a loss
• 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games coming off a loss  

BILLS

• 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following an against the spread win
• 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog 
• 1-7 right after playing the Patriots

WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)

ODDS: BET365

One of the marquee match ups that kicks off this sunday is the Redskins Vs. Packers. This game is scheduled to get under way at 1pm EST in Lambeau field. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as early 7-point favourites with a total set of 49.5 points. If there is one thing I am certain, it is that the Green Bay Packers won’t be starting the 2013 season 0-2.

Both of these teams enter week two looking for their first victories. The Redskins got embarrassed at home against Chip Kelly’s Philadephlia Eagles, while the Packers failed to gain revenge in San Francisco. Unfortunately the Redskins are going to have to wait another week for their first victory. It is  a tall task playing in Lambeau field against the Packers, let alone the fact it is their home opener. The Packers are 5-1 in their last six years home opening games, with their only loss coming against San Francisco last season. Washington is nowhere near the 49ers caliber and looked extremely vulnerable against the Eagles last week. They allowed the Eagles to rack up 33 points in three quarters of football and a league worst 263 yards on the ground. I can’t wait to see what this Packers offense is going to accomplish.

RG III looked nothing like the quarterback we all remember from last year. He ran the ball 5 times for a total 24 yards in week one and simply didn’t look comfortable under center.  I think that sitting out the entire pre-season hurt has hurt Griffen; It is going to take him at least another week until he finds his regular season form. Keep in mind the Packers have already seen a mobile quarterback in Kaepernick last week, I don’t think there is anything Mike Shanahan can throw at this Packers defense they haven’t already seen.

I expect an electric packers offense to go with an electric Lambeau crowd in this game. Look for Rodgers to complete at least 4 touchdown passes and 350 yards. Its going to be a  tough feat for the Redskins to come anywhere near competing in this game. Packers win big, re-solidifying everyones confidence in this NFC north favourite.

TRENDS 

REDSKINS

•  0-4 in their last 4 games in week two 
• 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 game after allowing 150 rushing yards or more in their previous game 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


The first divisional matchup in the NFC South is set to kick-off at 4:05pm EST in Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay (0-1) will welcome their long time rivals the New Orleans Saints (1-0) into town. Early oddsmakers have listed the Saints as 3-point favourites with a set of 47.5 points. All my research and intuition is telling me that the Saints win big in this game.

New Orleans couldn’t be happier to have Sean Payton back calling the shots. He made it look easy breezy taking down Atlanta last week. While we can expect the Saints to once again be an offensive power house, it was their defense that was concerning last year. They allowed an league record 440 yards per game on defense. Last week this same defense limited Atlanta’s explosive offense to 367 total yards and only 2 touchdowns. I am expecting a really big year from this New Orleans defense. They are primed for a bounce back season with Sean Payton back calling the shots.

As for Tampa Bay, most fans are still holding their heads in dis-bielf from their week one showing. Its already beginning to look like the Darell Revis trade was a reach with this team looking to be nowhere near a playoff contender. While Josh Freeman has not been able to stay out of the media in the last two weeks. All indication is pointing towards him losing this team in the locker room. He was recently stripped of his captaincy, while only a couple days ago it was reported he refused to appear in a team photograph. Drama is surrounding this team right now, making it difficult for them to concentrate on the task at hand, handling this experienced New Orleans offense this weekend. Saints win big and grab a stranglehold on the NFC South division.

TRENDS 

SAINTS

• 14-4 straight up in their last 18 games favoured by 0.5-3 points 
• 39-15-1 in their last 55 games following an against the spread win
• 14-4 straight up in their last 18 games against the NFC
• 6-1 straight up in their second game of the season over the last 7 years

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+2) VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 


ODDS: BET365

At 1PM EST this sunday the Indianapolis Colts and Andrew Luck will welcome the Miami Dolphins to town. When the spread was first released the Colts were listed as 3.5-point favourites; but since Oddsmakers have adjusted the line to -2 Indianapolis with a total set of 43.5 points.

Many people have high expectations for the Dolphins this year, and i’d be lying if I didn’t after their week one performance also. Miami dove their way through Cleveland last week with a convincing performance and victory. They limited the Browns to a dismal 47 yards on the ground; which speaks volumes when the man Trent Richardson comes into the equation. While their defense looked stout racking up a total 6-sacs, 2.5 of which came off the hands of Cameron Wake. This ex BC Lion is one of the best defensive ends in the NFL today, I am expecting big things from #91 this season.

Indianapolis has some serious offensive line issues to address if they are going to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. Andrew Luck was sacked 4 times in week one against the Raiders, the same Raiders team that was 31st in the league with only 25 sacks all of last season. As for Miami, they were tied for 7th in defensive sacks last year with 42. The Dolphins are a much more difficult matchup for Andrew Luck, and after almost blowing it last week in the 4th quarter, I’m beginning to question whether this is a complete team.

One important variable people should remember while betting upon Indianapolis this season is what like to refer to as the “Chuck Pagano Theory”. Last season this franchise bonded together following their head coaches diagnosis of leukaemia. They went a combined 9-3 during his indefinite leave of absence, with Andrew Luck leading a league high 7 game winning drives, on route to a 11-5 record. Unfortunately Indianapolis won’t have this season emotional motivation on the field this season. Keep in mind they are only one year removed from posting a league worst 2-14 record. Incorporate all this information with the fact this is a revenge game for Miami following their 20-23 loss in Indianapolis last year. The Dolphins are poised to start the 2013 season 2-0.

TRENDS


DOLPHINS 

• 8-0 straight up as a non-divisional dog of less than 10 points
• Head coach Joe Philbin is 7-1 as an underdog of 10 points or less
• 12-3-1 in their last 16 games when allowing 14 points or less in their previous game
• 16-5-1 in their last 22 games following an against the spread win