With week sixteen behind us the playoff picture is nearly set. Atlanta and Carolina will face off this weekend for the NFC South division and the final playoff spot in the NFC. While the AFC is a little more open with San Diego holding the final position, but Baltimore Houston and Kansas City are all still mathematically alive and could clinch with a little luck. Before jumping ahead to the final weeks of the regular season lets take a look at home headlines that week fifteen provided us.
- The Eagles season imploded on Saturday night with their loss in Washington. After starting 9-3 Philadelphia has lost three straight and were officially eliminated from the post-season following a Cowboys victory on Sunday night. This was a heart crushing defeated for all Eagles fans, when it looks like a post-season game was nearly a guarantee after twelve weeks. Can’t help but feel Mark Sanchez is going to burden a majority of the blame for this downfall.
- San Diego had one of the biggest comebacks of the season erasing a 21-point deficit against San Francisco and securing victory in overtime to keep their season alive. They play Kansas City this weekend and hold January dreams in their own hands. Given Philip Rivers December record of 31-8 since entering the league, its hard not to like them again this weekend.
- Houston surprised everybody including myself dismantling Baltimore 25-13 to keep their playoff chances alive. Flacco averaged a season low 3.9 yards per completion and threw a season worst three interceptions. The only entrance for the Ravens to the post-season now lies in a Chargers loss and a win for themselves versus Cleveland this weekend. While the Texans could advance with a Ravens and Chargers loss combined with a win this weekend against Jacksonville; a nearly guaranteed victory for Texans fans.
- Rodgers continued his MVP calibre season defeating the Buccaneers 20-3 in Tampa. He completed 31 of 40 passes for 318 yards and improved his touchdown to interception ratio to 7.2. With only one week remaining it looks like Rodgers has all but locked up MVP honours for the season.
- The Steelers clinched a playoff position defeating Kansas City 20-12 in Pittsburgh. It will mark the first time since 2011 that the black and yellow have made the post-season. This weekend they travel to Cincinnati and play for not only the AFC North division title, but for home-field advantage in the first round. Making it one of the most anticipated games all weekend.
- Atlanta knocked out the Saints 30-16 in New Orleans and kept their playoff hopes alive. They officially eliminated the Saints playoff chances handing them their 5th consecutive home loss, and host Carolina this weekend in a winner takes all matchup. The stakes don’t get much higher than this.
- Despite both teams being outside the playoff picture the Giants blew out the Rams 37-27 in St.Louis. The real reason anyone watched this game was to see Odell Beckham Jr. It looks like New York struck gold drafting him; the kid posted his third consecutive 100 yard game and 4th game this season with more than one touchdown. He has practically cemented his name on the offensive rookie of the year trophy. Its just too bad the kid couldn’t get a full season in. Entering this weekend he has 1,120 receiving yards and 11 touchdown; incredible given he has only 11 games under his belt.
- Oakland won their third game in five weeks defeating Buffalo 26-24. The outcome of this game means the Bills will miss the post-season for a league leading 15th consecutive season. Disappointing considering they defeated Green Bay last weekend and had a reasonable chance at the post-season if they could simply win their last three games.
- Dallas blew up Indianapolis 42-7 and handed them their worst loss all season. Romo threw for 4 touchdowns in the first half and Andrew Luck had nothing up his sleeve to compete with the Dallas secondary. His terrible performance undoubtedly decided several fantasy football championships. Looking ahead to this weekend the Colts need a victory to secure home-field advantage in the wildcard round and look almost guaranteed to host either Pittsburgh, San Diego, Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City if they can secure victory against Tennessee this weekend.
- Seattle embarrassed Arizona 35-6 at home on Sunday night. With the victory the Seahawks nearly clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and look unstoppable right now riding a five game win streak. Nobody could have seen this coming with the Seahawks holding a 6-4 record entering week eleven, while the Cardinals seemed untouchable at 9-1. With the loss Arizona went from the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout, to the #6 seed and playing on the road in all play-off games.
- Cincinnati captured their biggest victory all season defeating Denver 37-28. Peyton Manning threw a career tying 4 interceptions in this game and it looks like the Broncos are no longer look like the most unstoppable offensive team in the league. They should have no problem clinching a first round bye hosting Oakland this weekend, but I can’t help and think their Superbowl hopes are dust with New England officially clinched the #1 seed. We all know Peyton Manning has a terrible record against Tom Brady, never mind on the road in Foxborough.
AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
SAN DEIGO CHARGERS (+1) VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
ODDS: BET365
The Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) close out the regular season hosting division rivals San Diego (9-6) in Arrowhead stadium this weekend. In order to clinch a playoff spot this season the Chiefs must win this weekend and have some luck with losses by both Baltimore and Houston. As for the Chargers, their wildcard birth lies solely in securing victory this weekend. No luck no gimmicks its simple for San Diego, a win and you’re in. Oddsmakers have listed Kansas City as 1-point favourites for what should be one of the most critical games all weekend. With a total set of 40.5-points for this divisional matchup.
Kansas City has yet to complete a passing touchdown to a wide receiver this season. They have struggled in passing situations this season and the statistics show if they can’t keep this game close they are destined to lose. They enter this game averaging a mere 202.8 passing yards per game, and have major problems on their offensive line. They have allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league this season and with Chase Daniel getting the nod under centre this weekend due to Alex Smiths spleen issues, expect Kansas City to struggle. Quarterback aside; it’s become no secret that the Chiefs offensive success flows through the back-field. Jamal Charles was once again a workhorse this season with 1200 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns. But if you consider that Charles is the only major offensive weapon the Chiefs possess, San Diego should have no issues commiting a full game plan to limiting his effectiveness. With the Chargers coming off one of their worst defensive performance this season giving up 35 points in San Francisco, expect their secondary to show up this weekend and play tremendous in a game the signifies play-offs or bust.
As I’ve already mentioned Philip Rivers have been clutch in December. He enters this game with a career record of 31-9 this month and loves nothing more than to be facing Kansas City in the final game of the season. He has lead the Chargers to a 13-4 record against the Chiefs since he debuted as the Chargers starting quarterback. More importantly, he is 6-2 in his last 8 starts against them, with each loss coming by 3-points or less. Given all this information and the fact Rivers has be arguably the most clutch quarterback in this month outside of Tom Brady, expect the Chargers to find a way to victory and into the post-season in consecutive years.
TRENDS
SAN DEIGO
- 3-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-points or less this season
- 4-2 against the spread as an underdog on the road this season
- 6-0 against the spread in the second half of the season when playing a team on the road with a winning record the last three seasons
- 5-8 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 5-9 against the spread in the second half the seasons when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 1-4 against the spread as a home favourite of 3-points or less the last three seasons
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+4) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
Atlanta steamrolled the Saints last weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive but don’t expect the Panthers to keel over nearly as easily. Carolina enters this game a perfect 3-0 in the month of December and have been catching fire at the perfect time. Since the beginning of December they have allowed only one opponent to score more than 14 points, and have held opposing offensive teams to a league best average of 22:48 time of possession across the same span. While Matt Ryan is capable of putting points on the board if he doesn’t get the time of possession in this game the Falcons will have no shot in this contest. Combine that knowledge with the fact Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson were all either limited or failed to practise this week; and the Falcons securing victory in this game looks unlikely. It is easily forgotten that the Panthers were one of the most revered defensive teams in the league last season. While they haven’t been nearly as tenacious this season, if they hold the Falcons under 20 points this weekend they should cruise to victory, Atlanta is 1-5 when they score 20 points or less in a game this season.
While Atlanta will face one of the hottest defensive teams in the league this weekend; the Panthers face one of the worst. The Falcons enter this game 25th in the league giving up nearly 26 points per game, and stand alone in being the only team in the league allowing over 400 total yards per game. This does not bod well considering Cam Newton enters this game red hot. In his last two starts he has thrown for 427 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for 146 rushing yards and two touchdowns. While it should be mentioned Newton is 13-3 in the month of December in his career, he has won five straight games, and ten of his last eleven in December as the Panthers starting quarterback. With both these teams entering this game with equal records only one team can come out top, it looks to me like a no-brainer that team will be Carolina.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 11-0 against the spread versus opponent off straight-up dog win in weeks 13-16
- 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
- 9-2 against the spread avenging a loss against an opponent the last three seasons
- 0-4 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival this season
- 0-4 against the spread off a division opponent this season
- 2-4 against the spread as a favourite this season
DETROIT LIONS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)
ODDS: BET365
The Detroit Lions (11-4) look to stay undefeated against Green Bay (11-4) this season when they travel into Lambeau for their final game of the regular season. The game has everything and more riding on it. Whomever captures victory will be crowned the NFC North division winner, be granted a first round bye, and host a play-off game in January. Extremely important considering the loser will be forced to play wild-card weekend and on the road through-out the playoffs. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 7-point favourites with a total set of 47-points.
Everybody and their grandmother should be placing money on Green Bay to cruise to victory this weekend. This matchup has Packers written all over it for numerous reasons. Firstly, it signifies a revenge game from the week three game in which Detroit held Aaron Rodgers to 7-points and defeated them 19-7. It was the one and only time this season that the Packers were held under 10 points, and you shouldn’t expect that to happen again. Green Bay enters this game the highest scoring team at home all season, averaging over 41 points per game. When you combine that with the actuality Detroit has struggled to score points on the road this season, this game has disaster written all over it for Lions fans. Entering this game Detroit has scored over 20 points only once in their last four road games, and are averaging only 15 points per game on the year. Placing them 29th overall in the league, and the lowest scoring team to advance into the post-season this year.
It’s not a question of whether Detroit’s defense contain Aaron Rodgers, it’s pretty distinct that won’t be happening. Its whether Matthew Stafford can keep up with the Packers rate of scoring. With Reggie Bush coming off his best game all season and a healthy Megatron you would expect they have the pieces in place; but this Packers defense is vastly underrated. They enter this matchup averaging nearly two turnovers per game and allow the 6th lowest average opponent time of possession at home in the league. With Stafford throwing at least one interception in all but four games this season, and the Lions having one of the weaker offensive lines in the league; expect to see plenty of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense again this weekend.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 0-4 off straight up win versus opponents with revenge
- 1-5 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins this season
- 2-10 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 5-1 against the spread at home this season
- 11-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 6-0 against the spread as home favourites of less than 13-points off a double-digit straight up win versus non-divisional opponents
ST. LOUIS RAMS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-12)
ODDS: BET365
The Seattle Seahawks (11-4) look to close out their season on a 6-game win streak when they host division rivals St. Louis (6-9) in Century Link Field this weekend. The Rams got the best of Seattle in their first meeting this season 28-26 and pulled off some trickery including a fake punt inside their own 20-yard, and 90 yard punt return touchdown. Seattle will have the chance to even the season series this weekend, and have been listed as 12-point home favourites with a total set of 41-point for his matchup.
Seattle has been unstoppable in the last five weeks. Since the end of November they are winning games by an average of 16 points, while holding all but one opponent under 10 points. They have definitely been heating up at the perfect time and with a win this weekend would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If that happens it’s not difficult to imagine them running the table towards their second SuperBowl appearance in as many years. While St. Louis will be looking to play upset, its extremely unlikely that happens. Shaun Hill will get his first start against Seattle this season and is in line to become the next vicim of the Legion of Boom. In eight road starts for Hill since 2009 he has a 2-8 record and improving that record seems nearly impossible with how the Seahawks have been playing defensively. The enter the final game of the regular season the only secondary in the league allowing less than 200 passing yards per game, and are tied for first giving up only one passing touchdown per game. When the Rams fall behind in this matchup they won’t have the pieces in place to make a comeback, and averaging less than 20 points per game on the road this season they clearly aren’t built to play from behind. Don’t expect St. Louis to fair nearly as well this time around, Seattle should run away with this game easily.
In their first matchup this season Seattle recorded nearly 200 more offensive yards than St. Louis, and five more minutes in time of possession. The final score didn’t exhibit how Seattle controlled the entire game and I’m expecting similar offensive results from them again this weekend. In the last three games the Seahawks have been running over opponents averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. With Russel Wilson accounting for 163 yards and two touchdowns across that same span. There isn’t a successful defensive formation to contain the numerous ways the Seahawks can gauge you for yardage, and we should witness that again this weekend when they easily dismantle the St. Louis secondary and set themselves up with home-field advantage throughout the post-season.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 4-7 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 0-11 against the spread off a double-digit against the spread loss versus an above .500 opponent with revenge
- 5-9 against the spread versus Seattle in Seattle since 1992
- 11-2 against the spread in December games the last three seasons
- 8-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season the last three years
- 4-1 against the spread versus division opponents this season