Week 17 NFL Picks 2013

• Baltimore and Miami both failed to capture victories in week 16, leaving the door wide open for the Chargers and Steelers. Both teams might be a long shot but none the less they have a shot, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see either one of these teams sneak in. Either way, it should make for an exciting finish in the AFC. 
• Houston kept pace with Denver for majority of the game until the Peyton decided to show up and break the single season passing touchdown record. At one point in the third quarter this game was 16-13 Broncos; the final after 60 minutes was 37-13. Despite the victory and clinching a first round bye, the loss of Elvis Dumervill is catastrophic for this team. Without him in the lineup it severally hurts their Super Bowl chances. 
  
• The Bengals stayed undefeated at home this season after their 42-14 win over the Vikings. The scary part is with a win this weekend and a New England loss they would clinch a first round bye and home field advantage in the first round. If this somehow this unfolds I have a feeling that the odds of the Bengals winning a championship this year greatly increase. 
• Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers got revenge against New Orleans and greatly increased their chances of winning the NFC South this year. They can clinch the division with either a win this week, or a New Orleans loss. Interestingly enough the Saints can still miss the playoffs with a loss and if Arizona wins this week. Wouldn’t that be a shock after New Orleans started the season 5-0.
• Speaking of Arizona, they had by far their biggest victory of the season this year in Seattle. They became the first team to win in Seattle during the Russell Wilson era and might have exposed to the entire league just what it is going to take to beat the Seahawks this post-season. The unfortunate thing about this game was I believe the interception that ended it was clearly an incomplete pass. It doesn’t take a physicist to explain how much air the ball got after bouncing off the “forearm” of Doug Baldwin that the ground also was involved. I believe that this was a blown call but none the less its an impressive victory considering this same Arizona team lost 58-0 in Seattle last year. 
• The Cowboys kept their playoff hopes alive as converting on a 4th and goal with a less than a minute remaining to defeat the Redskins 24-23. Its just too bad that Tony Romo is extremely unlikely to suit up for this matchup given the herniated disc he suffered. Its looking a hell of a lot like Dallas will have to wait at least another year before seeing the post-season. Betting against Chip Kelly and the Eagles this weekend looks like a huge mistake waiting to happen, just look at what they did against Chicago on Sunday night. 

AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCH-UP 

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Cleveland Browns (4-11) enter Heinz Field this weekend to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) for their final game of the 2013 season. Pittsburgh is 5-2 in their last 7 weeks but in order to clinch the final playoff spot in the AFC  they need some serious domino’s to drop; Baltimore, Miami and San Diego all have to lose, and the Steelers have to win. Looking at the Browns, their season is all but over, they lost their 6th straight last weekend and finish the 2013 season with back-to-back road games. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Steelers as 7-point favourites with a total set of 44-points. 

Not many teams have played a worse second half of their season than the Houston Texans; but the Cleveland Browns are giving them a run for their money. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games, are currently riding a 6 game losing streak, and nothing leads me to believe that those struggles won’t continue rolling this weekend. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 home games and are averaging 27.4 points per game across that same span. Assemble that with the fact Cleveland enters 1-7 when allowing teams to score 27 points or more this season; and are being outscored by an average of 8.7 points on the road this year; Pittsburgh should have no problem covering a touchdown at home this weekend. 

If Cleveland hopes to keep this game close they desperately need Jordan Cameron back in the line-up this weekend. He didn’t play in New York last weekend and is officially listed as questionable entering this weekend from a concussion. Its no mystery that Cameron is a major security blanket for Jason Campbell and the only real offensive threat outside of Josh Gordon. If he is out again the Steelers 8th ranked passing defense should have no problem shutting down this Browns offense. Mind you, even if he does suit up history states Cleveland will struggle; they haven’t won in Pittsburgh in over 10 years. The time they beat Pittsburgh at home was October 5th 2003 by a score of 33-13. 

TRENDS 

CLEVELAND 

• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
• 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games in December
• 2-5 against the spread versus a team with a losing record

PITTSBURGH

• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a victory
• 16-7-2 against the spread in their last 25 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games versus the AFC North
• 13-3 as home favourites in their last home game versus opponents with a record below .500 

HOUSTON TEXANS (+7) VS TENNESSEE TITANS 

ODDS: BET365 

The Tennessee Titans (6-9) host the Houston Texans (2-13) this weekend to close out their 2013 season. Tennessee is fresh off their 6th win of the season and look to finish the year strong with only their second back-to-back victory this year. As for Houston. they lost their 13th consecutive game last weekend and run the risk of carrying their losing streak over into 2014 unless they capture a win this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Titans as 7-point favourites with a total set of 44-points for this game. 

If any team is due for a win this weekend it is the Houston Texans. After entering the season with aspiring Super Bowl hopes they have flopped harder than Disney’s “Lone Ranger” this year. Albeit, this team is still better than their record shows, 6 of their 13 losses this year have been by 3 points or less and their defense ranks top ten in the league for overall yards allowed per game. As for the Titans there record actually suggests they play better on the road; in 7 home games this year they are 2-5 and haven’t won at LP Field since late September. 

Keep your eyes peeled for how Tennessee deals with J.J Watt and the Houston defensive line. In their last three meetings J.J has managed an average of 2 sacks per game along with one forced fumble across that same span. Houston is going to throw every look possible at Ryan Fitzpatrick and their nothing to lose attitude should pay off this weekend. That’s right, I’m rolling with the league worst Texans to win this weekend in Tennessee. 

TRENDS 

HOUSTON 

• 4-1 in their last 5 games versus Tennessee 
• 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 35 points
• 4-1-2 against the spread in their last 7 games in week 17

• 0-4 in their second of back-to-back divisional games
• 2-9 in their last 11 as favourites after 1 straight up win exactly 
• 14-31 against the spread in their last 45 home games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
• 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 home games

AFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCH-UP 

BUFFALO BILLS (+10) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

ODDS: BET365 

The New England Patriots (11-4) close out 2013 in Gillette stadium when they welcome their division rivals the Buffalo Bills (6-9) into Foxborough this weekend. Buffalo enters this game after quietly stringing together back-to-back victories and this weekend aim to improve on their 3-2 division record. As for the Patriots, they are looking to stay undefeated at home this season and need a victory to guarantee a first round bye. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 10-point favourites with a total set 47-points. 

As good as the Patriots record is once again this year making them 10-point favourites for this matchup seems a stretch. All of you know that these two teams are divisional rivals, and by now you should know AFC East opponents always hang around against the Pats. In their last five meetings in Foxborough the Patriots have an unblemished record of 5-0 against the Bills; but the result in all but one game was within 10 points. Don’t overlook the fact when these two rivals took the field in week one it took a final minute field goal for the Patriots to clinch a two point victory; so revenge could also play a factor. 

We didn’t witness the Patriots struggle without Gronkowski this past weekend, but I expect we notice his absence this weekend. The Bills might have a less than spectacular record this year but their defense has been quite impressive at points. They rank 8th overall in total yards allowed per game, first overall in sacks (56) and second with 22 interceptions. This is a defensive team that thrives off turnovers and they should get their ample opportunities this weekend. I’m expecting another close game between these two rivals, you should too. 

TRENDS 

BUFFALO 

• 7-3 against the spread after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
• 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games versus the AFC East 
• 5-2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
• 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points 

• 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 versus Buffalo 
• 3-14 as home favourites of more than 7 points versus divisional opponents with revenge
• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 versus the AFC East
• 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up victory 
• 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous outing

NFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS 

ODDS: BET365 

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) enter AT&T Stadium this weekend to take on the Dallas Cowboys (8-7). This not only marks the final game of the regular season, but one where the winner will be appointed the NFC East division champion while clinching one of the final playoff spots in the NFC. Dallas enters this game after defeating Washington and for a second consecutive season play a final game that represents a win and your in. As for the Eagles, they aim to return to the post-season for the first time since 2011. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as 6.5-point road favourites with a total set of 52.5-points for this matchup.

I have two major focuses behind my prediction for this game. Firstly, we are looking at Chip Kelly’s hurry up offense versus the worst defensive team in recent history. This Eagles offense has been unstoppable as of late, in the last seven weeks they are 6-1 but what’s more impressive is across that same span they are scorching teams for an average of 34.5 points per game. With the Cowboys entering this game allowing teams to score an average of 27.2 points, while giving up a league worst 418 yards per game, it seems imminent we watch the Eagles offense put up ridiculous numbers this sunday in Dallas. My second focus is it is extremely unlikely Tomo Romo will suit up at quarterback this weekend. They have already reached into the past signing Jon Kitna and I would be shocked to see Romo suit up this weekend given the type of injury he’s suffered. While more often than not he gets the burden and the blame for the Cowboys failure; without him under center their chances of winning greatly decreases.

Dallas will have to shut down LeSean McCoy if they want to put any pressure on this Eagles offense. He enters this game with a league leading 1476 rushing yards, and is in line for another field day. Sean Lee is expected to miss yet another game due to a sprained neck and he is arguably the most valuable defensive player on Dallas. Oh, and the Cowboys rank 27th against the rush this season and have given up three consecutive 100 yard rushing games. Everything points towards the Eagles flying past the Cowboys at home this weekend, getting revenge for their week 8 loss and clinching their first playoff appearance since 2011. 

TRENDS 

PHILADELPHIA 

• 6-1 in their last 7 games off a double digit straight up win 
• 7-1 in their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points
• 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record

• 3-6 as home dogs versus the Eagles
• 1-6 in their last 7 games versus a straight up away victory 
• 1-5 in their last 6 after playing the Redskins
• 2-11 at home versus opponents off straight up wins by 20 points or more
• 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games in December 
• 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in week 17