Week 17 NFL Picks 2012

The final week of the regular season is here. This Sunday will be the last time we see several teams take the field until 2013, while others will play until February. The AFC Playoff Picture is already wrapped up, it is simply a question of who plays who. While the NFC still have yet to be decided and 3 teams are look from the outside in. Here are some things that I liked from last week:

• Carolina has been one of the best teams in the league the last 5 weeks. Although they are outside of the playoff picture this year; will be in it for years to come. This year the schedule proved one of the hardest in the league. They faced Chicago, Seattle, Dallas, Denver and the Giants in 5 of their  non-divisional games. Never mind Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta all twice! If they had an easier schedule they would be stamping a ticket into the post-season. 
• The Vikings Win! They made Houston look like a bunch of chumps at home and held them to under a touchdown for the first time at home since 2002 when Houston came into the league! While Adrian Peterson was contained for his first game and gained under 100 yards in over 8 weeks. It comes down to this week for the Vikings, if they win they are in. One of the better games to watch this sunday. I have a feeling AP might just break lose and come closer to that record than people expect. After all, last time he faced Green Bay this season he ran all over for 210 yards. 
• The Bengals knocked off the Steelers 13-10. Andy Dalton is bringing the team back into the playoffs and this doesn’t look like a team to be messed with. After starting the season 3-5 they have since lost only one game and are 6-1 in their last 7. Baltimore could have their hands full if these teams meet up in the first round wildcard matchup. 
• Peyton Manning extended the Broncos win streak too 10 games. They are the hottest team entering the playoffs and with a win at home against Kansas City this weekend would secure a first round bye. Denver doesn’t look so stupid signing the guy off neck surgery anymore. Most analysts have them ranked #1 in the power rankings. It will take a great all around team to beat them. 
• Seattle is terrifying at home. They have yet to lose and the 12th man looks like the biggest advantage in the NFL. With a Packers and 49ners loss this weekend and a win themselves they could secure home field advantage and a first round bye. If this happens they could cruse into the SuperBowl. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit. 
• The Giants Collapse! I couldn’t have received a greater gift for the holidays. This team went from  a 6-2 record and were at one point the #1 ranked team in the league in power rankings. They had a 85% chance at making the playoffs. Fast-forward to this weekend they have lost 5 of 7 and have around an 8% shot at making it. Not much for this team to look forward too except next year. Not even Eli could save them. 

NEW YORK JETS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-3) 

ODDS : BET365 

The first matchup that I like heading into the final week of the season is between two divisional rivals and non-playoff teams. These two met in the first game of the year with New York scoring 48 and winning big at home. This time around I like Buffalo to get revenge and finish the season on a strong note; after all the Jets have one of the worst offences in the league.

Now I know some of you are saying that defense wins championships but wake up. In todays NFL it is usually the offense that carries and the defense makes plays when they are called upon. The last 3 Superbowl winners have been some of the highest scoring teams in the league (Giants, Packers, Saints).  In this matchup Buffalo has the much better offense, they can actually move the ball down the field. They have advantage in having the better quarterback, running backs AND wide receivers. They should put up some nice numbers against this Jets banged up secondary. 

Another reason I chose this matchup is for the Jets turntable of quarterbacks. Just when it looked like Greg McElroy would start they declared he suffered a concussion and they will start Sanchez again. This is a great opportunity for the Bills defense to step up their game and pressure a passer that clearly doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter in this league. 

Although the Bills are allowing the 2nd most points in the league and have lost their last 3 in a row those totals are deceptive. They have turned the ball over the most all year in the last 3 games (5 interceptions, 4 fumbles). While in the first game they lost this season against the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions and the offense had 1 fumble. However this time around they are at home and New York will be without their best corner Revis Island. I expect them to really take care of the ball this game. I’m sure that Fitzpatrick worked all week on reading defensive formations of this Jets squad and it would surprise me to see him throw more than 1 interception. They will take care of the ball in this game and that should be the difference in this game; because we all know Sanchez is good for at least 2 interceptions and 1 butt fumble. Buffalo closes their season out on a high note and Rex Ryan gets fired as head coach. 

TRENDS 

JETS

• 1-5 off back-to-back straight up against the spread losses versus division opponent off straight up loss
• 0-5 off a straight up favourite loss versus an opponent with a losing record

• 5-1 at home off double-digit straight up loss versus an opponent off back-to-back straight up losses
• 6-2 at home versus opponents with a below .500 record in weeks 13-16
• 
  

GAME 2 – NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

CHICAGO BEARS VS DETROIT LIONS (+3) 

ODDS: BET365

This should be a great game. Chicago comes into this matchup and needs a win combined with a Vikings loss in order to make the playoffs. Yet this is something that I just don’t see happening. 

Detroit has been one of the most disappointing teams this season. After making the playoffs last year they are missing out this year. This is hard to believe given the fact that Megatron has already broken the receiving yard record with a game to spare. But I suppose a record like 0-5 against your division, makes sense why they aren’t in the thick of things. 

The difference in this game will be the Lions defense. They have lost 7 games straight but the major reason behind that is they are allowing an average of 31 points against across that span. Chicago shouldn’t be a difficult opponent to hold under that total given the fact about 100% of their offense goes  through either Matt Forte or Brandon Marshall. I think this weekend Detroit will shut these two down. In they’re only other meeting this season they struggled to contain both of these guys but should have an easier time in this one. Forte is banged up and coming into this game with an ankle injury listed probable for game time. If they can contain him while playing a combination of man-to-man and cover defense against Marshall they should be able to shut him down. 

Another matchup to follow in this game will be Ndamukong Suh and Jay Cutler. In the first meeting Suh got to Cutler only once in the game, being held mostly at bay. This time around the Bears have allowed the 8th most sacks in the league at 42. With the injuries piling up on the offense line he could have his way. 

While Matthew Stafford hasn’t play exactly his greatest football the last couple weeks he has kept the Lions in most of their games. He has passed for the 2nd most yards in the league behind only Drew Brees and should challenge the Bears secondary in this matchup. With revenge fresh in their minds and the fact that Detroit can play some of their best football at home. I like them to send Chicago packing and play upset. After all we can’t forget this same team were the last ones to beat Seattle, way back in week 8 while playing home. 

TRENDS 

BEARS 

• 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games in Detroit 
• 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games 
• 9-29 against the spread in games played in December since 1992 

• 8-3 dogs with revenge versus an opponent off a double digit straight up win in weeks 13-16
• 4-1 against the spread versus Chicago over the last 3 seasons

GAME 3 – NFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+11) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

ODDS: BET365

Some of you might shake your head at this one but I’m going with the Rams in this one and all 11 of those points. For reasoning that this being a divisional matchup, and I think that St. Louis is better than the 11-point underdog that they are listed. 

The major reason I like this game is that the Rams have been playing their divisional opponents great this season. They have a 4-0-1 record when facing teams in their division and beat Seattle week 4 19-13. As great as this Seattle team has been, and how rookie Russell Wilson has looked like a quarterback with years of experience under his belt, they are bound to stumble at some point. It may not be a large fall from grace, but it will surely be closer than what oddsmakers have listed it in this one. 

In week 4 when these teams faced off St. Louis picked off Russell Wilson 3 times. I expect a similar performance in this one. Wilson has been playing lights out since and has only 2 interceptions in his last 7 games. But I contribute that mostly a great run game. Marshawn Lynch has immensely helped out Wilson this year with his running. It gives him more time in the pocket and play-action allows for him to look down field. This game he shouldn’t have that time. St. Louis is tied for 3rd in the league with 46 sacks, I ensure you the defensive coordinator has been organizing a variety of blitz packages to hit Wilson this weekend. If they can get pressure on him they will force him into rookie mistakes and turnovers.   

All it will take for the Rams to keep this one close is for Sam Bradford to hold onto the ball and make smart decisions. He is capable of accomplishing this given they compliment him with a solid run game. They can complete both of these since Danny Amendola is back in the lineup, who is a immense  it help them on 3rd and long. I don’t expect the Rams to win this one, but it will be closer than a 2 score game.

TRENDS

ST. LOUIS 

• 5-0 versus divisional opponents with revenge of back-to-back straight up wins
• 7-1 off double-digit straight up win versus non-divisonal opponent
• 4-1 in their last 5 games 
• 6-1 agains the spread on the road this season 

• 1-4 straight up in game 16 over the last 5 years
• 22-42 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival since 1992
• 50-83 against the spread off a divisional game since 1992

GAME 4 – NFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

DALLAS COWBOYS (+3.5) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

ODDS: BET365

In what is the most important game this weekend I say take the points and Dallas on the road. Both these teams have been playing great football, Washington has won 6 straight while the Cowboys are 5-2 in their last 7. 

Entering the last game of the regular season it would be impossible to put more importance on a single game. Whoever wins this game will get into the playoffs, while the loser has all offseason to think about the mistakes they made and things they should have done different. The Cowboys have been great as of late because of one man, Tony Romo. In his last 5 games he is averaging 353 yards passing per game and 2.6 touchdowns. That should continue given that Washington is 30th in the league against opposing passers giving up 287 yards per game. While the Cowboys offense is 3rd in the league averaging 303 yards passing per game. It probably helps that Dez Bryant has been lights out since they established a curfew for him. They are on identical wave lengths and have connected for at least a touchdown in every week since week 11. Even if the Redskins find some way to shut this man down then what do they do about Miles Austin and Jason Witten? Thats just it, they don’t have enough shutdown corners to stop them. 

The other matchup I like in this game is Demarco Murray versus the Redskins defensive line. Since coming back from injury he has scored 2 touchdowns in 3 games and has been a duel threat both receiving and rushing out of the back field. If they can get his legs moving he will be the deal breaker in this matchup. Washington is 5th in the against the run but look for Dallas to pound the ball at their strength’s and expose their weaknesses when they least expect it. 

Knowing how great RG III has been this season I have to mention him. He will clearly be a major challenge for the Dallas defense and has had all types of secondary’s running in circles this season. This game will be similar, but if you look the first time these teams met up it was a blowout by half-time. He absolutely made the Dallas cornerbacks look like high school students and walked into halftime up 28-3. Since that game he injured his knee and didn’t look quiet normal in last weeks game when running the ball. For this game he is listed as probable and will play but I expect him not being fully healthy, something that Dallas will target on defense. I don’t think this defense forget how badly he torched them last time, they will be looking to avenge that loss. Something I expect they will achieve.

Romo is the more experienced quarterback in this matchup and that is something everybody has to consider. He has been through ups and downs, seen the playoffs, and made major mistakes. All things that RG III hasn’t been through yet. If the Cowboys fall behind big in this game I know Romo has what it takes to bring his team back. RG III is still a question mark in that category in my books. 

TRENDS 

DALLAS 

• 6-2 straight up in their last 8 games playings Washington 
• 7-3 after being out gained in the previous game
• 5-2 against the spread while playing on the road the last 7 games

• 6-14 straight up in their last 20 games at home
• 50-81 against the spread as a favourite since 1992 

FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 27 – REDSKINS 24